Flemington
Race 1 - I won't be getting involved in this race for a couple of reasons. Firstly a 9.20am (QLD time) is a bit early for my liking and secondly there's a field of 16 largely unraced 2 year olds. If you're a mad fella and loves a challenge then I'd work around Alezan Thunder, Languish, Flirtatious, Princeton Miss, Applegate and Big Chill. Save your money for later on.
Race 2 - Going with Influential Miss here. It won this race last year 3rd up which is the same scenario it finds itself in this year. Thought it's last run in the Vase was quite good. Weighted more favourably than it's rivals. Other hopes to Foxstar, Cold Steel Rein and Smoulder.
Race 3 - Much has been made of the Geelong Cup form in relation to the Melbourne Cup. In particular GC winner Dunaden which is one of the better fancies in the MC. So Perfect Pecs 2 length 5th in the GC has to place it in contention for this open race. It's down in the weights and likes the sting out of the track. Should get a nice run in the race. Other hopes to Adroitly, Excluded and Western Symbol.
Race 4 - Pretty keen on Neriani. Plenty in her favour. Last run was enormous behind Hi Belle where she drew out wide. Gets an alley in close here. Good record over the distance and likes the sting out. Other hopes to Hinemoa, Little Surfer Girl and Pontiana.
Race 5 - Karuta Queen looks very hard to beat. I would imagine she will dictate terms in front and I'm not sure this lot can run her down. Especially how well weighted she is compared to the rest. The only downside I can see is the price currently on offer. $1.50 isn't enticing. Other hopes to African Pulse and Hollyweird.
Race 6 - Could be a reasonable tempo in this race with a number of horses engaged that like to lead. For that reason, I'm going for Combat Kitty. She's shown that she can really finish off a race and on the big Flemington track that should suit her well. She comes from the in form Matt Smith stable and has the champion Damian Oliver on top. Other hopes to The Fairy's Kiss, Mabsam and Disputes.
Race 7 - The Melbourne Cup. You could make a case for most of the field and I wouldn't be discouraging you if you like 1 that I don't mention. Traditionally foreign horses that are having their 1st start in Australia run poorly. Add that fact with a foreign jockey and it gets worse. Maybe it's a bad move on my behalf but I've eliminated any horse fitting that bill from my chances.
Race 7 - The Melbourne Cup. You could make a case for most of the field and I wouldn't be discouraging you if you like 1 that I don't mention. Traditionally foreign horses that are having their 1st start in Australia run poorly. Add that fact with a foreign jockey and it gets worse. Maybe it's a bad move on my behalf but I've eliminated any horse fitting that bill from my chances.
Like many of the twitter racing community, I've had money on Lucas Cranach for some time now. I don't see a reason to get off now. I commented before his Caulfield Cup run that he'd better for the run and it was the Melbourne Cup that I was looking for him to be at his best. This was due to his 2nd up form. I thought his Caulfield 5th was a great run. He came from 15th at the 800m to finish 3 lengths off the winner. I respect the Freedman's and in particular Lee. For him to make this horse his personal project for the past few months suggests to me that he thinks a hell of a lot of the horse. I reckon this horse won't know itself with 53.5kg. From Cup winning jockey Corey Brown should be able to give the horse a winning chance.
Other hopes that I'll be including in my trifecta and First 4 bets are Dunaden, Niwot, Americain, Mourayan and At First Sight. Good luck!
Other hopes that I'll be including in my trifecta and First 4 bets are Dunaden, Niwot, Americain, Mourayan and At First Sight. Good luck!
***With the scratching of Mourayan, I'd like to add Bauer but hey we don't have emergencies for the cup. So I'll add Unusual Suspect to the hopes***
Race 8 - I have Lamasery well on top here. Perfect record at the distance, goes best with the sting out of the ground and I would argue is clearly the best horse in the race. The only concern for me is how well he has come back from the problems he suffered after the Metrop. Other hopes to Lone Command, Set The Course and God Has Spoken.
Race 9 - Wow where do I start? 20 horses down the straight. Luck is going to play a big role here. At least we can be happy that whatever horse we back, there's going to be tremendous value. As hard it is to pick a winner here, I think the winner will be coming from the back of the field due to the solid speed. For that reason, I'll be going with Perturbo. Goes well at the track and distance and has some solid form coming into this. Other hopes are every other runner in the field.
***With the scratching of Perturbo, I'll get behind Parables ***
Race 10 - Quite keen on the chances of Too Deadly in the last. Comes off a 1st up 2.8 length 5th to Testa My Patience. Reckon that's fantastic form for this. It's 2nd up record suggests it will be primed for a result. Other hopes Studley Park, Under The Eiffel and Bagman.
Best Bets
Flemington - Race 4 Number 14 Neriani
Race 5 Number 2 Karuta Queen
Race 8 Number 4 Lamasery
Race 10 Number 14 Too Deadly
Eagle Farm - Race 1 Number 1 Taunt Pauline
Race 5 Number 2 Loves A Challenge
Race 8 Number 8 Cape Kidnappers
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