G'day punters. Another super Saturday of racing with four Group 1 races in Melbourne. The feature race today is the AAMI Victoria Derby. We will also see a number of Melbourne Cup aspirants in their last ditch attempts to gain entry into Tuesday's field. Selections have been based on a dead to slow track for Flemington, dead track with leader bias at Rosehill and a dead track for Doomben. It's currently raining in Melbourne so what condition the track ends up is anyone's guess at this stage. Good luck!
*There's a few updates due to scratchings*
Flemington
Race 1 - Not keen on taking the short odds on offer for Galah but I think he'll be winning the first. Looked very impressive winning last start and should go right on with it here. Other hopes to Meethaq, First Course and Cross Of Gold.
Race 2 - Based on it's past 2 runs, it's very hard to go past Green Moon in the Lexus Stakes. The horse has shown a great deal of fighting spirit in winning the Newcastle Cup and running 2nd in the Caulfield Cup. Gets a good draw this time which will only enhance it's chances. Other hopes Moyenne Corniche, Showcause and Niwot.
*With the scratching of Moyenne Corniche, I'll promote Midnight Martini to the other hopes.*
Race 3 - I won't be getting involved in the Wakeful Stakes. Based on it's past 4 starts, the short priced favourite Atlantic Jewel should be very hard to beat again. I listen when the little gentleman Michael Rodd says this is the best horse he's ever ridden. How can you argue with that? However it's $1.35 currently so it's hardly worth your while backing it. Other hopes to Dowager Queen, Gliding and Bliss Street.
Race 4 - Another superstar graces the track in the Coolmore Stud Stakes in the form of Sepoy. Again this will be a race to just watch as he's around the $1.30 mark. On equal weights, he should be way too strong for the rest of these. Other hopes to Zamorar, Bear Hero and Foxwedge.
Race 5 - There looks to be a number of horses with fighting chances in the Mackinnon Stakes. To be honest, I've spent way too much time looking at it and coming up with legitimate reasons why at least 6 horses can win this. In the end I've gone for Wall Street. He's draw near the outside but I think they'll settle the horse at the tail of the field. This tactic worked well in the Cox Plate where he finished off really well. Admittedly he missed the start which probably made the decision for the jockey. Still it ran tops. With a chance of a wet track, I think that suits this horse more so than some others. Other chances to Midas Touch, Glass Harmonium, Southern Speed and Rekindled Interest.
*With the scratching of Wall Street, I'll promote Midas Touch to my top pick and add Sincero to the other hopes.*
Race 6 - I'm going to stick with Sangster in the Derby. I backed him in the Norman Robinson and thought that was a terrific run to go down by 0.2 of length. I felt the jockey went too early on him and with the more experienced Hughie Bowman on board this time, should be right in the finish. Other hopes to Manawanui, Induna and Niagara.
Race 7 - I've gone with More Joyous here. She's the class act of this field and is suited at wfa conditions. It's been said she was below her best last start. Even if that's the case, she fought on strongly to win over the very much in form Sister Madly. She is 4 from 4 3rd up. Other hopes to Response, Mosheen and Dysphonia.
Race 8 - Boy oh boy. The Salinger looks a tough race with many winning chances. I have gone for Mid Summer Music. The track could very well be wet by this stage of the day and this mare loves it wet. Besides that, her past 2 runs have been close up finishes to Pinker Pinker and Sepoy. I just think she can get a great run and come home hard. Other hopes to Temple Of Boom, Sister Madly and Curtana.
Race 9 - Another tough race to finish the day in Melbourne. I think Niblick can run a race here. The horse simply loves the track and distance and can handle the sting out. It has a great 1st up record and represents a good value down in the weights. Other hopes to Launay, Thankgodyou'rehere and Woorim.
Rosehill
Race 1 - 7 horse field of 2 year olds. Staying well away from this!
Race 2 - Hardly a race to get excited about. Prince Braeman will lead this and could quite possibly go like a cut cat. His form is horrendous though so he may run out of steam. I think Lost For Words could be the one here. The horse looks like it has a bit more to offer than most of these. However I wouldn't be getting carried away with bets here. Other hopes to Revolt, Markab and Scouting Wide.
Race 3 - Going for Turn On Sixpence. It looks value around the $9 mark. It's well bred, has Jim Cassidy on top and won well last start. Should get a nice cart into the race. The drop in weight is a bonus. Other hopes to Howmuchdoyouloveme, Hendricus and Cindarockinrella.
Race 4 - I like the look of Savannah's Choice in this. Although she has performed better over longer distances, I think she has more quality than these. Her 1st up win over 1500m was good and she drops 2kg thanks to the claimer. Other hopes to Winner Take All, Triple Six and Blurred Vision.
Race 5 - Even with 61kg, Atomic Force should be hard to beat. The horse has been racing much better quality races than this in Melbourne. He's proven that he can carry big weights in the past. Jimmy Cassidy on board helps with the big weight. Other hopes to Tromso, Phenomenal Lass and Ahdashim.
Race 6 - Going for a Waller runner on the up here in Merchandise. 1st up over 1600m this fellow ran on from last which says that 2000m is ideal now. Form suggests this is also right up his alley. With the claim, he only has to cart 52kg. Other hopes Landlocked, Gopana and Old Bill.
Race 7 - Stratana could get a cheeky lead here and go right on with it if there is any on pace bias. Won't want the track any worse than dead but has a great record over the distance. Other hopes to Underthetuscansun, Lohengrin and Champing.
Race 8 - I like the consistency of Coup Ay Tee in the final event. The horse has never been out of a place in it's 9 starts. Likes the sting out of the track and has a good record at the track. Each way, all day. Other hopes to Riva De Lago, Lightinthenite and Wazn.
Doomben
Race 1 - A race for 2 year olds that I won't be getting involved.
Race 2 - Like the look of Pretty Pins. Although the race was run in heavy conditions, her last start win where she gunned down Our Design showed that the step up in distance will suit. She looks a nice type. Other hopes to Il Cardinale, On Face Value and Banana Kick.
*With the scratching of Banana Kick, I'll promote From London to the other hopes.*Race 3 - Going with Geblitzt in this. The horse loves the track and distance. It has a great 1st up record and put simply looks the best horse in the race. Other hopes to Mossriver, Imeldamay and Getyourown.
Race 4 - Pretty keen to go with Another Superior. Last start it won coming home hard over eveything else. Actually in every start it has flashed home. The 1350m should really suit this horse. Jimmy Byrne in the saddle adds to my confidence. Other hopes to Dorchester, Kelbenjar and Last Gift.
Race 5 - This looks a bit of a tricky race. I've gone with a former Victorian having it's 1st start in QLD in Marsh Harbour. Currently around the $12 mark, I think it offers each way value. 2 starts back in ran 2.2 lengths to Zubbaya and I have to think that that is reasonable form for this race. Other hopes to Eight Pieces, Gunner Knox and Hidden Kisses.
Race 6 - This looks a very nice race for Rundle. The way he won well over 1800m last start suggests the 2000m here is right up his alley. The former Victorian just seems a better quality horse than the rest of these which isn't that hard. Other hopes to Timetable, Russian Jar and Red God.
*With the scratching of Russian Jar, I'll add Our Recidivist to the other hopes.*Race 7 - I think Cavaliered looks well placed here. The horse is resuming and has good 1st up form. I think there could be a bit of speed on here and this bloke loves charging home so that will suit. He ran in much better quality races than this in his last campaign. Byrne steering with 53kg. Other hopes to Theft, General Shareef and Prime Cognac.
*With the scratching of General Shareef, I'll add Pegunny Cat to the other hopes.*Race 8 - Originally I thought Faster Son would be the one to beat here but I can see the pace being on in this and he's gone like a scalded cat in his recent efforts and run out of gas. Because of the pace I've gone with Joint Chiefs. This chap will get back and come home with an almighty run. He loves this track and distance. Other hopes to What Happenedhenry, Faster Son and G'day Old Mate.
Best Bets
Flemington - Race 2 Number 3 Green Moon
Race 6 Number 5 Sangster e/w
Rosehill - Race 4 Number 2 Savannah's Choice
Race 6 Number 9 Merchandise
Doomben - Race 2 Number 10 Pretty Pins
Race 3 Number 2 Geblitzt
Race 4 Number 3 Another Superior
Race 6 Number 6 Rundle
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