It's Cox Plate Day and it doesn't get much better than this! The Cox Plate is the closest thing racing has to a grand final with the coliseum style race track and the gut busting 2040m where everything the horse has will be put on the line. For dessert, Black Caviar goes for win number 15. The support acts come from Rosehill and Eagle Farm. Selections have been worked out based on a dead to slow track for Moonee Valley, a good track for Rosehill and a good to dead track for Eagle Farm.
Moonee Valley
Race 1 - A tough race to kick things off with a field of 2 year olds with limited or no racing experience. Definitely not a race I'll be too keen on getting involved in. I would lean to Rise To The Top. It ran well in it's debut in Sydney, narrowly going doing to Tatra. The fact that Portelli has brought it down to Melbourne is a sign that he likes it's chances. Other hopes to Lamingtons, Red Excitement and Unlucky.
Race 2 - Going to go with Classic Elle here. She drops 6kg from her last start 2nd. I think she can camp just off the speed from barrier 4. Has been thereabouts in all starts and can handle a dead track. Other hopes to Torah, Bliss Street and Twilighting.
Race 3 - Think their could be a bit of pace on here with Karuta Queen and Beckon vying for the lead. For that reason, I have gone with Miss Stellabelle. It should be able to push up from barrier 3 to be just off the speed. It won it's only start at the track and distance last time in the Group 3 Champagne. Should go well. Other hopes to Karuta Queen, Amah Rock and Beckon.
Race 4 - Won't waste much time on the next 2 races. By rights Manawanui should be way too classy for these. His run in the Guineas suggests he'll handle the 2040m.
Race 5 - The queen of the turf Black Caviar should win her 15th start easily.
Race 6 - I'm a fan of Shewan but I have my doubts due to the 57kg it has to carry. Especially when you compare it to Americain who is last year's Geelong and Melbourne Cup winner and carries 58kg. That's the way I'm going. I just think it has a little bit of class on these and is weighted well. Won't have a drama with the distance. Other hopes to Shewan, Illo and Tullamore.
Race 7 - I like the look of Ginga Dude here. Should be able to get into a very handy position or even lead from the nice barrier. Drops to 55.5kg which is a big relief on past races. Loves the distance and the track and loves the sting out. Will give a great sight. Other hopes to Testa My Patience, Luen Yat Forever and Dao Dao.
Race 8 - The Cox Plate. Glass Harmonium and Helmet should set a reasonable speed here. I'll be going the way of King's Rose because I think she can be positioned nicely and get all the favours in the run. She won her only start at the track and is 2 from 2 at the distance. Her Stocks win here showed that she is an incredible fighter which she'll need to bring in this race. Can handle and going. Other hopes to Helmet, Glass Harmonium and Pinker Pinker.
Race 9 - I'm going to put my faith in Lady Lynette in the last. Prior to her last start failure, she was racing in great heart. She has won this race the past 2 years and just loves Moonee Valley and this distance. Other hopes to Hi Belle, Raspberries and More Strawberries.
Rosehill
Race 1 - Definitely won't be getting involved in this 5 horse race.
Race 2 - I don't like getting involved in untried 2 year old races. I may make an exception here but only in a small way. Dances On Stars has had 2 trials for 2 wins at this track. Has the Pumper in the saddle and should give a good account of itself from the 4 barrier. Other hopes to Kyoto, Mai Tai Lady and Meidung.
Race 3 - Dailika has been costly to punters. Today has to be her day. Otherwise I don't know if she'll ever win again. Her form recently isn't bad with some close results. She appears to be a better quality horse than the rest of these and with the 3kg claim really should possy up well and be hard to hold out. Track and distance stats support this. Other hopes to Shelters, Blurred Vision and French Rose.
Race 4 - This is a tough race. I settled for Mental. Could very well be a horse on the up. He's won his past 2 starts back from a spell at this distance range. Winkers go on which could really sharpen him up. Other hopes to Subarc, Cocky Raider and Pampelonne.
Race 5 - By rights Samui Lad along with Honourable Aussie should set a nice clip in front. This should benefit the run on horses. For that reason, I've gone with Kaunda. Cassidy will take the horse to the tail from the wide gate and should be able to unleash a hard finish. His Cameron run suggests he may have a bit too much for these. Other hopes to Dance Man, Our Billy Blue and Hard Liquor.
Race 6 - A good quality field has assembled here and there should be no shortage of horses wanting to lead. Whether they can accomplish this or not is another matter. I think Cassidy will try to replicate what he did last start with Somepin Anypin and boot clear early. If the other riders allow this then it could be good night Irene. I won't be taking the $2 on offer though. I'll be boxing it up with the other hopes in Erewhon, Renewed Vitality and Skilled.
Race 7 - Lone Command looks well placed here. It's coming off 2 runs in Group 2 company where it was within 2 lengths of the winner each time. The barrier is a concern but I think it can be slotted in midfield and saved for a strong finish. Other hopes to Al's Gold, Legsman and Bellissimo.
Race 8 - Tough way to finish the day. Can see a reasonable pace set here from the inside horses. I'm not too sure how long Seqsational will be able to keep with Rosie's Reward. Hopefully it finds the lead early and isn't pressured. The horse has a great record at the distance and also goes well 2nd up. The 3kg claim is also an added bonus. Other hopes to Pyrography, Redhandedjill and Torino.
Eagle Farm
Race 1 - I'm not overly confident about this race and won't be getting too involved. I eventually fell into Streets Away. He ran well 1st up and has proven himself over further distances than these. His 2nd up record is sound. I just feel he'll handle the distance better than his rivals. Other hopes to Mington, Win A Million and Narcelo.
Race 2 - Snipzu brained them last start and should do the same here. However the price is too short and also it's a 2 year old race where anything can happen. Other hopes to Dansonate, Wolfsburg and Finality.
Race 3 - I'm going to stick with Racing Heart here. The horse is in good form and I think the extra 300m will suit. Should be able to run over these in the straight. Other hopes to Chilled, Warrior Within and Eureka.
Race 4 - Very tough race. There's any number of chances here. In the end I settled on In A Storm. I could be pushing friendship here but I think it can push up from the 5 gate and lead. Whether it has enough in the tank to hold these off is another story but I'm prepared to take that chance with it only having 52.5kg and being double figure odds. Other hopes to Another Superior, Kelbenjar and Merryanna.
Race 5 - The speed will be on here which should suit Seek And Find who will be able to settle just off it from the peg. He really should get the gun run. The horse has a good record over the trip. Other hopes to Girl Hussler, Haizum and Carry The Clubs.
Race 6 - I would have loved to have seen Rosagaze draw a gate here. Unfortunately she's in the car park. Still if the jockey can get her in a position, I think she'll be hard to hold out. The horse has a lot more to offer than most of these and has built up a nice record. Postage stamp weight won't hurt either. Other hopes to Monashee Warrior, From London and Hidden Treasure.
Race 7 - We have to stick with Filldelphia here. There should be a fair pace set which will enable her to unload a furious finish as she did last start. She'll get a gun run from the 4. Other hopes to Celtic Dancer, Cornwall Park and Symposium.
Race 8 - For crying out loud! It just doesn't get any easier does it? Trying to narrow this race down has proven to be quite a task. I have gone with Havatryst. It has the good 1st up record and liking for the distance in it's favour. As well as the quality races it competed in prior to it's spell. Where it ends up from barrier 11 is a concern but I'm sure Munce will give it the best possible chance. Other hopes to Redessi, Liesele and Skating On Ice. Realistically I could have included many more.
Best Bets
Moonee Valley - Race 3 Number 2 Miss Stellabelle
Race 6 Number 1 Americain
Race 7 Number Ginga Dude
Race 8 Number 13 King's Rose e/w
Rosehill - Race 3 Number 1 Dailika
Race 5 Number 4 Kaunda
Race 7 Number 5 Lone Command
Eagle Farm - Race 5 Number 10 Seek And Find
Race 7 Number 4 Fillydelphia
Race 8 - The Cox Plate. Glass Harmonium and Helmet should set a reasonable speed here. I'll be going the way of King's Rose because I think she can be positioned nicely and get all the favours in the run. She won her only start at the track and is 2 from 2 at the distance. Her Stocks win here showed that she is an incredible fighter which she'll need to bring in this race. Can handle and going. Other hopes to Helmet, Glass Harmonium and Pinker Pinker.
Race 9 - I'm going to put my faith in Lady Lynette in the last. Prior to her last start failure, she was racing in great heart. She has won this race the past 2 years and just loves Moonee Valley and this distance. Other hopes to Hi Belle, Raspberries and More Strawberries.
Rosehill
Race 1 - Definitely won't be getting involved in this 5 horse race.
Race 2 - I don't like getting involved in untried 2 year old races. I may make an exception here but only in a small way. Dances On Stars has had 2 trials for 2 wins at this track. Has the Pumper in the saddle and should give a good account of itself from the 4 barrier. Other hopes to Kyoto, Mai Tai Lady and Meidung.
Race 3 - Dailika has been costly to punters. Today has to be her day. Otherwise I don't know if she'll ever win again. Her form recently isn't bad with some close results. She appears to be a better quality horse than the rest of these and with the 3kg claim really should possy up well and be hard to hold out. Track and distance stats support this. Other hopes to Shelters, Blurred Vision and French Rose.
Race 4 - This is a tough race. I settled for Mental. Could very well be a horse on the up. He's won his past 2 starts back from a spell at this distance range. Winkers go on which could really sharpen him up. Other hopes to Subarc, Cocky Raider and Pampelonne.
Race 5 - By rights Samui Lad along with Honourable Aussie should set a nice clip in front. This should benefit the run on horses. For that reason, I've gone with Kaunda. Cassidy will take the horse to the tail from the wide gate and should be able to unleash a hard finish. His Cameron run suggests he may have a bit too much for these. Other hopes to Dance Man, Our Billy Blue and Hard Liquor.
Race 6 - A good quality field has assembled here and there should be no shortage of horses wanting to lead. Whether they can accomplish this or not is another matter. I think Cassidy will try to replicate what he did last start with Somepin Anypin and boot clear early. If the other riders allow this then it could be good night Irene. I won't be taking the $2 on offer though. I'll be boxing it up with the other hopes in Erewhon, Renewed Vitality and Skilled.
Race 7 - Lone Command looks well placed here. It's coming off 2 runs in Group 2 company where it was within 2 lengths of the winner each time. The barrier is a concern but I think it can be slotted in midfield and saved for a strong finish. Other hopes to Al's Gold, Legsman and Bellissimo.
Race 8 - Tough way to finish the day. Can see a reasonable pace set here from the inside horses. I'm not too sure how long Seqsational will be able to keep with Rosie's Reward. Hopefully it finds the lead early and isn't pressured. The horse has a great record at the distance and also goes well 2nd up. The 3kg claim is also an added bonus. Other hopes to Pyrography, Redhandedjill and Torino.
Eagle Farm
Race 1 - I'm not overly confident about this race and won't be getting too involved. I eventually fell into Streets Away. He ran well 1st up and has proven himself over further distances than these. His 2nd up record is sound. I just feel he'll handle the distance better than his rivals. Other hopes to Mington, Win A Million and Narcelo.
Race 2 - Snipzu brained them last start and should do the same here. However the price is too short and also it's a 2 year old race where anything can happen. Other hopes to Dansonate, Wolfsburg and Finality.
Race 3 - I'm going to stick with Racing Heart here. The horse is in good form and I think the extra 300m will suit. Should be able to run over these in the straight. Other hopes to Chilled, Warrior Within and Eureka.
Race 4 - Very tough race. There's any number of chances here. In the end I settled on In A Storm. I could be pushing friendship here but I think it can push up from the 5 gate and lead. Whether it has enough in the tank to hold these off is another story but I'm prepared to take that chance with it only having 52.5kg and being double figure odds. Other hopes to Another Superior, Kelbenjar and Merryanna.
Race 5 - The speed will be on here which should suit Seek And Find who will be able to settle just off it from the peg. He really should get the gun run. The horse has a good record over the trip. Other hopes to Girl Hussler, Haizum and Carry The Clubs.
Race 6 - I would have loved to have seen Rosagaze draw a gate here. Unfortunately she's in the car park. Still if the jockey can get her in a position, I think she'll be hard to hold out. The horse has a lot more to offer than most of these and has built up a nice record. Postage stamp weight won't hurt either. Other hopes to Monashee Warrior, From London and Hidden Treasure.
Race 7 - We have to stick with Filldelphia here. There should be a fair pace set which will enable her to unload a furious finish as she did last start. She'll get a gun run from the 4. Other hopes to Celtic Dancer, Cornwall Park and Symposium.
Race 8 - For crying out loud! It just doesn't get any easier does it? Trying to narrow this race down has proven to be quite a task. I have gone with Havatryst. It has the good 1st up record and liking for the distance in it's favour. As well as the quality races it competed in prior to it's spell. Where it ends up from barrier 11 is a concern but I'm sure Munce will give it the best possible chance. Other hopes to Redessi, Liesele and Skating On Ice. Realistically I could have included many more.
Best Bets
Moonee Valley - Race 3 Number 2 Miss Stellabelle
Race 6 Number 1 Americain
Race 7 Number Ginga Dude
Race 8 Number 13 King's Rose e/w
Rosehill - Race 3 Number 1 Dailika
Race 5 Number 4 Kaunda
Race 7 Number 5 Lone Command
Eagle Farm - Race 5 Number 10 Seek And Find
Race 7 Number 4 Fillydelphia
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