Friday 25 May 2012

26/05/12 - Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben

The less said about last week's efforts the better. The Silk was in good form leading into last Saturday but obviously annoyed the punting gods.  We'll put that behind us and move forward.  

Caulfield

Race 1 - Pakari Toa is a horse that interests me in the opening race.  This horse has won 2 of it's 3 career starts.  Looked good winning easily it's 1st 2 runs before an average run in the Zeditave.  Will more than likely lead here which will assist on a heavy track.  Champion jockey Damian Oliver rides.  Other hopes to Zamorar and Platelet.

Race 2 - Pass.  Next to no heavy track form for these youngsters.

Race 3 - Placement is a model of consistency.  She just doesn't run a bad race.  She gets in here with just 52kg after the claim for Duffy.  Has an outside gate but should be able to get to the front with minimal effort to control the race.  A wet track won't faze her.  Rock hard fit.  Other hopes to Hurdy Gurdy Man, Domesky and Finiguerra.

***With the scratching of Placement, I'll promote Hurdy Gurdy Man to top pick and make Geejayhaitch an other hope***

Race 4 - Johannapine looks the testing material here.  Has won 3 of it's 5 starts and has looked good doing so.  Loves this distance, winning 2 from 3 and running 2nd the other.  Has won it's only start on a heavy track.  There should be a decent speed set here which will suit her as she'll be camping in just behind.  Other hopes to Queen Delight, Galbraith and Alpha Proxima.

Race 5 - I do like Soft Sand but I'm not about to take $2 about her.  Rue Maple offers much better value.  She races very well at Caulfield where she has placed 7 out of her 10 runs.  This is her pet distance also.  Has a very good record on rain affected tracks.  Her form has been very good this campaign and she'll get a much better run than last time where she was left a sitting duck.  Other hopes to Soft Sand, Riviere and Gossip Girl.

Race 6 - Not a race I'm particularly keen to get involved in.  I'll have a small wager on Two Sugars.  It has won or placed on slow and heavy tracks every time it's been on them.  It races well over 1600m where it has a win and 2 placings to it's credit.  I just think it offers a bit of double figure value in a tricky race.  Other hopes to Tai Tai Tess, Ominous Quality and Lakers Bay.

Race 7 - Stratigraphy looks a very good chance in this race.  Raced very well 1st up behind Classy Chloe at this track.  He has a win and a 2nd in his 2 2nd up efforts.  Has shown an ability to handle rain affected tracks.  Oliver should give him a nice run.  Other hopes to Roses In The Glen, Club Command and Manhatten Maid.

Race 8 - Shenzhou Steeds was impressive last start when he won over this distance last start. Has won 3 from 5 over this trip.  Unbeaten in 3 races on slow going.  Will race in a prominent position and be hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Jungle Ruler, Banca Mo and Eraset.

***With the scratching of Eraset, I'll promote Under The Eiffel to the other hopes***


Rosehill


Race 1 - Sherwood won well in it's 1st race start in a Bendigo maiden.  The Hawkes team bring him to Sydney here and I think he'll prove hard to beat.  He should get a good run racing on the speed.  Down in the weights.  


Race 2 - Not overly keen on this race for 2 year olds. Kabayan on top from Genteel.   


Race 3 - Rockafellacentre looks a nice type on the up.  It has won 2 of it's 3 starts.  It has stepped up in distance each start and has handled it well.  Will more than likely lead and if it's last 2 starts are anything to go by, it will keep finding the line.  Hardest to beat Lucripetous.


Race 4 - Again I'm not keen on this race at all.  I'll have a small wager on Arms Length.  It has a good record over this distance, winning 1 and placing 2nd from 4.  Does her best work on good to dead tracks.  


Race 5 - Rain Drum could dictate terms here with an easy lead.  Alternates between win and placing and is on the win cycle now.  But seriously the form of this horse is sound.  Has never been out of the top 3 from 9 starts.  Goes particularly well on good to dead tracks.  Weight shouldn't be a problem as it's won with this weight before.  Other hopes to Southern Shimmer, Roi D'Jeu and Shamardani.  


Race 6 - Red Tracer has been racing in Group 1 company and comes back to a handicap.  She should have too much class for these.  Has won twice at this track before and has a good record over the distance. Will race up on the speed and be hard to run down.  Other hopes to Falzzon, Tromso and Recorrido.

***With the scratching of Red Tracer, I'll make Tromso may top pick and promote Youthful Jack to the other hopes***


Race 7 - Another tricky race.  I'm going with Turf Hero.  Has been racing in good form lately.  Prior to getting checked out of the race last start where Mental won, he was competitive with Dee'N'Gee.  Races well over this trip and on good to dead surfaces.  Should be able to race very handy.  Other hopes to Embark, Altai Warrior and See The World.  


Race 8 - I've really struggled with this race. I think there could be a bit of a go in front here which should suit something running on.  For that reason, I'm going with Scottish Border.  Generally it races over much longer trips than this but it's 1st up run over 1300m where it ran on well for 4th.  It has a good 2nd up record and also has raced well over this trip.  I just think it offers good value at the $21 mark.  Other hopes to Winning Glory, Erewhon and Pontiana.


Doomben


Race 1 - I'll be steering clear of this race.  Just too many chances to narrow it down.


Race 2 - If Kelbenjar jumps cleanly, he should be able to position himself in a prominent position.  If that's the case, he'll be mighty hard to beat.  Has had excuses in better quality races than this recently but still you could find positives in those runs.  Will handle any going and is a winner at this track and distance.  Other hopes to Stradon, Divine City and Longshoreman.


Race 3 - Tough little race this 1.  I've lobbed on Choice Bro.  This is a Group 1 and 3 winning horse in NZ and I think he will be improved 2nd up.  Should be able to race handy from his inside draw.  Other hopes to Hoss Amor, Saturn Rock and Midnight Fury.


Race 4 - I suspect there will be quite a lot of scratchings here with many of the chances drawing wide.  (Got that wrong) Emvoss has drawn favourably in 7 and that should prove very beneficial.  This horse has put together a very good record, winning 4 from 11. Over this distance he has a great record, winning 2 and placing in 2 others from 4 tries.  Has a slow track placing if the track ends up wet. Other hopes to Demanding Miss, My Quilter and Zekeza.


Race 5 - This looks like a Moody domination.  I've backed Soros to win the Derby so I'm hoping for a big showing here.  I think we'll get it too.  His last 2 runs have been full of merit.  The way he finishes off, the 2200m should not be a problem.  He has a good record on dead and slow tracks.  Other hopes to Vatuvei, Brambles and Hula Lua.

***With the scratching of Hula Lua, I'll promote Red Shift to the other hopes***


Race 6 - Dance With Her is going gangbusters at the moment.  She's won her last 2 in listed company over 2350m and 2005m.  Getting the trip will not be a problem.  Will race up handy and prove hard to run down.  Any dampness in the track will only help her.  Drops 3kg on her last start.  Other hopes to Wazn, Absolutely and Shamardashing.


Race 7 - Sea Siren picked up the biscuits last start for The Silk and I'm going to stay solid here. She was very impressive in that BTC Cup.  If the track is slow then she should handle it given she came within a whisker of beating Streama on it a few starts back.  She will be able to settle handy and be tough to run down.  Will also be all the fitter 2nd up.  Other hopes to Mid Sommer Music, Temple Of Boom and Beaded.


Race 8 - From the inside draw, Seek And Find will take a tonne of running down.  This guy just loves Doomben, winning 6 from 12.  Importantly, he can handle any surface.  Drops in weight for winning last start.  Other hopes to Rocker, Gundy Son and Excellantes.


Best Bets 


Caulfield - Race 4 Number 9 Johannapine
               Race 7 Number 9 Stratigraphy
              Race 8 Number 6 Shenzhou Steeds


Rosehill - Race 5 Number 2 Rain Drum


Doomben - Race 4 Number 8 Emvoss
               Race 6 Number 4 Dance With Her
               Race 8 Number 4 Seek And Find

Friday 18 May 2012

19/05/12 - Flemington, Doomben and Scone

Flemington


Race 1 - Pass.  Too many unraced 2 year olds.


Race 2 - Not a race that I'll be getting too involved in.  Donna Cattiva won by 4 lengths last start in a listed Adelaide race where it ran considerably quicker than older horses in other 1600m races.  Will be able to stalk Fiveandahalfstar in running. 

Race 3 - Xavi ran 2nd to Hot Lover last start and I think he can turn the tables here.  Xavi gets a 2kg weight advantage over Hot Lover. Last start Xavi ran 3 wide with no cover but should get a much better run on the speed here.  Loves a dead track.  Other hopes to Hot Lover, The New Boy and Kinselmac Manner.  

***With the scratching of Xavi, I'll make Hot Lover my top pick and promote Cash Bound to the other hopes*** 

Race 4 - Noble Park was no match for Mr O'Ceirin last start but it gapped the rest in that race over 2000m.  It has a great overall record, winning 4 from 9. Importantly it has never been out of a place in 2 starts at this track and distance.  Loves a dead track.  Will get a much easier run here and should prove hard to run down.  Other hopes to Module, Elusive King and Chasse.

Race 5 - I'm very wary of this race.  Can Stratcombe lead and win or will Shopaholic be able to come over the top?  Those are questions I've taken a lot time considering.  I'm going with Shopaholic.  This horse ran super last campaign where it beat Mosheen.  It has a great 1st up record, winning 2 from 3.  Loves a dead track.  In it's favour is that it will carry 54.5 kg, a 4kg advantage over Stratcombe.  With a clear run, it will prove hard to beat.  Other hopes to Stratcombe, Liveandletdie and Elusive Touch.

Race 6 - I'm putting Almodovar on top here.  It races well at this track and prefers dead to good ground which it gets.  Although he's been beaten by Maythehorsebemagic and also Dame Claire recently, I think he can turn the tables.  He'll be able to position himself nicely from the inside draw and race handy.  That should be the key.  Other hopes to Maythehorsebemagic, Kirribilli Gold and Dame Claire.

Race 7 - Admantium looks very well placed here.  Gets in with 54.5kg which is a steal considering this horse was placed in a Group 2 and a Group 1 last campaign.  Goes particularly well 2nd up and likes a dead track.  Other hopes to Freereturn, Utah Saints and Chosen To Fly.

Race 8 - I'll go with the frog, Puissance De Lune in the get out.  Tough race but this horse looked really good when winning it's 1st start in Australia.  Came with a storming run which it will have to do here with the outside draw. Won it's only 2nd up effort in the past.  Will eat up a dead track.  Other hopes to Gail, Neriani and Cosmic Causeway.

***With the scratchings of Puissance De Lune and Cosmic Causeway, I'll make Gail my top pick and promote Zaamore to the other hopes***

Doomben

Race 1 - There is going to be a fair speed set here and for that reason I'm going with Falino.  He'll be able to camp in behind the speed and come over the top.  He had 2 runs last campaign and both were average on face value.  However there were reasons for that and I'm willing to forgive that.  Goes well fresh and loves this track.  Other hopes to Skating On Ice, Prost and Audacious Spirit.  

Race 2 - Sizzling should be too strong here.  Was super impressive winning 1st up on the heavy surface at the Coast.  It's form last campaign was excellent where it ran well in the Magic Millions and other Group and Listed races.  Other hopes to Dances On Stars, Noogoora Burr and Discreet.

Race 3 - Fillydelphia looks very well placed here.  She just loves this track, winning 6 from 10.  Over this distance here she has won 2 from 3.  She'll get a beautiful run from the 2 gate.  Will appreciate a firmer surface.  Again I must stress, she LOVES this track.  Other hopes to Ginga Dude, Divorces and Solzhenitsyn.


Race 4 - I'm going with Wealth Princess here.  After almost 2 years off the scene, this horse unleashed a bottler to come within a whisker of winning the Wangoom.  Has a perfect 2nd up record and loves it on top of the ground.  Has won at this track and distance previously.  Other hopes to Risk Aversion, Sophie's Spirit and Hidden Kisses.


Race 5 - The kiwi filly Miss Artistic looks up to her eye balls in this.  She resumed last start at the Coast and was full of running coming 4th.  She'll be further improved on that run.  Won the Group 1 NZ Oaks over 2400m 2 starts back.  Quality filly!  Other hopes to Dowager Queen, Invest and Secret Garden.


Race 6 - I'm an unashamed Punch On fan.  This lass fights every time she goes out.  Resumed with a nice 2nd in the Gold Coast Guineas.  Has a great 2nd up record, winning 2 from 3.  Has a win over this distance at this track at her only crack.  She'll be running on like a train and will prove hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Mental, Easy Running and Morning Captain.  


Race 7 - Manighar has been very good to Silk supporters and I can see him giving us another win here.  He just doesn't seem to run a bad race and will get all the favours here.  He draws the inside and will be able to roll forward.  His form (winning 3 group 1's) is just too hard to ignore.  Other hopes to Shez Sinsational, Lights Of Heaven and Mawingo.


Race 8 - I like Carry Me Bluey in the last.  This guy hardly ever puts a bad run in.  He's won or placed in 17 out of 22 which is testament to that.  He was good 1st up when he was narrowly beaten and then ran well in the worst going on a heavy track at the Coast.  Those runs should position him very well here.  Munce will have him running on when it counts.  Other hopes to Free Wheeling, Tiger Tees and Smokin' Joey.  


Scone 


Race 1 - Pass. Not keen to get involved with a big field of maidens.


Race 2 - Not a fan of this race but I'll have a small wager on Tamanu Park.  Has won over this distance previously which is a big plus in this field.  Ran on last start over 1900m where it finished 2nd.  It's too difficult to isolate 3 other hopes.


Race 3 - I'm going with local knowledge here in the form of Exploitable Doubt.  This horse is unbeaten from it's 3 starts at this track.  Goes well on top of the ground and should be able to position itself nicely from an inside draw.  Other hopes to Cheap Thrills, Macarthur Bull and Liesele.


Race 4 - Sherocksmyworld will do me here.  As is the case with most of Gai's horses, this horse will roll forward and probably lead.  Has only had the 3 career starts but has placed in all of them.   Has form around Epaulette.  Other hopes to Diamond Earth, Villa Splendido and Secret Delight.


Race 5 - Speed should be on here.  For that reason I'm going with 1 that runs on.  We'll have our hearts in our mouths watching Emotional Circus get well back but she can certainly finish off.  She races best on top of the ground and has won her only start over this distance.  Speed the key with her.  Other hopes to Fox, Emerald Downs and Saraji.


Race 6 - Shannara looks well placed here.  Has been racing in good form lately and enters this race after a 4th in the Emanicipation.  She has a good record over this trip and will get a great run from Bowman.  Should be able to track over easily with speed on it's inside.  Other hopes to More Strawberries, Forfeiture and Potions.


Race 7 - This looks a race in 2 here between Pampelonne and Colorado Claire.  Just have to pick the right 1!  Perhaps the safe bet is to quinella them.  I'm putting Colorado Claire slightly on top due to the fact she is proven over this distance.  Has won 2 from 3 and looked really good charging home last start.  


Race 8 - Stratana gets a 6.5kg weight relief from his 1st up effort.  He has a great overall record, winning 5 out of 10 and only being out of the places once.  Goes well 2nd up and a good surface.  Other hopes to Skytrain, Zaratone and Sutton Queen.  


Best Bets


Flemington - Race 7 Number 8 Adamantium


Doomben - Race 3 Number 8 Fillydelphia
                Race 5 Number 4 Miss Artistic
               Race 7 Number 1 Manighar


Scone - Race 6 Number 3 Shannara

Friday 11 May 2012

12/05/12 - Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben

The Silk has been in reasonable form the past month with a winning strike rate of 31% and 29% profit on turnover.  We look to carry that good form into the Brisbane Winter Carnival.

Caulfield

Racd 1 - Champagne Ruby should get things off to a winning start.  Will race as favourite but should be winning after 2 impressive wins.  These wins have been by 4 and 5 lengths at Cranbourne on dry and wet tracks.  Will be able to dictate things in front.  Other hopes to Ominous Quality, City Of Song and Lakers Bay.

Race 2 - This is a competitive race for 2 year olds.  I'm going to have a small wager on Ride A Rock Horse.  Won well on debut on a dead track at Seymour.  Gets an inside gate here and should be able to push up into a handy position.  3kg off for Duffy.  Other hopes to Anniversary Belle, Affable and Big Chill.

Race 3 - I'm not particularly keen to get involved here.  Having said that I could be persuaded to have a small bet on The Night's Hot.  Won well at this track and over this distance last start where she beat Manila Jewel.  Meets Manila Jewel worse at the weights but the win over that horse suggests that may not be a factor.  Goes well on a dead track.  Other hopes to Manila Jewel, Shezaten and Blue Nile.

Race 4 - Magnifique Soleil. has a tremendous strike rate, winning 7 from 15 and placing in 4 others.  Won comprehensively over 1700m last start so the step up to 1800m should not be of any concern.  Will get a great run and has the in form Nick Hall on board.  Other hopes to Turnitup, Larry's Never Late and The Wingman.

Race 5 - Platelet will be tough to hold out here 2nd up.  Didn't have much luck when resuming behind Tres Vite but still came within a few lengths of winning.  Has a perfect record over this trip at this track.  Other hopes to Classy Chloe, Stratigraphy and You Tell Me.


Race 6 - I'm going with Stratcombe here.  This guy has put together a good record in his short career, winning 5 from 10 starts with 4 minors.  He goes particularly well at this track.  Dead track is ideal.  Will be given a great run by Froggy Newitt.  Other hopes to Le Remas, Forty Two Below and It's Crunch Time. 


Race 7 - There's Only One will be particularly hard to beat here with no weight.  Goes around with just 52.5kg after the claim for Duffy.  Has a great overall record, winning 6 from 14.  It resumes here and it's 1st up record is a good one, never being out of the placings.  Likes this track and distance.  Other hopes to Tariana, Silkstone Special and Rue Maple.


Race 8 - The Silk's on the board of the Pago Rock fan club.  This horse has provided several wins for us and I think he'll be returning to the winner's stall today.  He was desperately unlucky last start when he was held up for a run when cantering behind the leaders.  Has a great record on a dead track and over this distance.  Other hopes to Utah Saints, Eclair Surprise and Gold Sand.


Rosehill


Race 1 - Not keen to get involved here.


Race 2 - I'll have a small bet on Tribal Rock.  Has put together a good record in it's short career, winning 3 from 4.  It has won it's last 2 starts over 1600m so the extra 200m here won't hurt.  Other hopes to Lucripetous, Galator and Gnarly.


Race 3 - Didntcostalot has been racing competitively in better quality races than this and should be too strong here.  Should be able to lead or sit on the back of Skip Town and then bolt away.  Other hopes to King's Dominion, Skip Town and Whitlam.

***With the scratching of Whitlam, I'll add Startreusse to the other hopes***


Race 4 - I was initially concerned about the weight Delabombell has to carry here. However she has won with this weight in the past.  This horse has been racing really well in Melbourne previous to this against horses such as Miss Octopussy and Rue Maple.  I'd suggest that sort of form would be too much for these to handle.  Stead has ridden the horse to 3 wins from 4 starts.  Goes tremendously well on good to dead tracks.  Other hopes to Shelters, Titbit and Gai's Choice.


Race 5 - I was on Moriarty last start and I don't see a reason to get off here.  This horse has had 2 runs in Australia and they've both been full of merit.  It has been running on over 1800m and it looks primed for a win 3rd up here.  Has been placed in a Group 3 internationally.  Other hopes to Song Shan, Polar Circle and Kwilas Law.


Race 6 - Wazn has a fantastic record at this track winning 3 from 5.  Is also undefeated in it's 2 races here over this distance.  It's 1st up run was good but I suspect it will be even better 2nd up.  Other hopes to Herculian Prince, Skyerush and Crafty Irna.


Race 7 - I'm going with Falzzon in this.  Not overly keen on the race but I think this guy might be able to get up here.  Will get a lovely run from the 3 gate.  It's last 2 starts it's been a bit out of it's league but ran fairly well.  This isn't as hard as those races.  It's too open a race for my liking to be naming other hopes.  A horse of interest will be Oh Oklahoma who is resuming after 5 and half years off the scene. 


Race 8 - Under The Sun is a horse on the up.  Has won 3 from 5 starts.  It's also won both it's starts this campaign.  It should be able to get to the front with relative ease here and dictate terms.  Drops 3kg on past starts.  Other hopes to Thumbtacks, Cosmonaut and Zedlion.


Doomben


Race 1 - Angel Of Mercy should have way too much class for these.  Won the listed James Carr last start over 1400m and has form around Shopaholic.  I'll be watching with interest to see how Mourasana goes for longer trips later on.


Race 2 - Excellantes has to carry 60kg here but against this field has earned it.  Looking back it has carried big weights like this before and run well.  Frankly he's a better quality horse than these.  Has a great 2nd up record and loves this distance.  Browne will be able to give him a great run.  Other hopes to Altai Warrior, Vintage Moss and Demanding Miss.


Race 3 - I'm going with Hoss Amor here.  This filly won on debut before running ok in the Gold Coast magic millions.  Will get a great run from the peg with the in form McDonald in the saddle.  I don't think she's here for a hair cut.  Other hopes to Choice Bro, Better Than Ready and Dansal.


Race 4 - I've gone with Nuptse here after much deliberation.  I wouldn't be surprised if Seek And Find wins but I just felt Nuptse had a weight advantage here and Seek And Find's 1st up record isn't overly flash.  Nuptse loves this distance winning 3 from 5.  Has won both it's starts over this distance at this track.  Other hopes to Seek And Find, Rescue Mission and Miss Barwang.


Race 5 - Geez this is an ordinary race.  So many horses out of form.  I'm have a small interest bet on Streets Away.  Ran reasonably well last start for 3rd on the heavy going over 2200m. Down in the weights and will appreciate a dry track.  Other hopes to the field.


Race 6 - The kiwi horses should play a big hand in this race.  I'm going with one of them in Poste Restante.  Almost by default as I was keen on Malandrino.  Poste Restante ran 2nd to it in a Group 3 before coming across to Australia.  I'm a little concerned about some of these getting 2000m.  That's not the case with this filly.  She has raced this distance or further in her last 3 starts and has been competitive in each.  Gets a great alley and local jockey Munce on board.  Other hopes to Trump, Isopach and Nashville.


Race 7 - Who isn't a Buff fan?  I'm a little concerned that Buffering is rated a 50/50 chance to run here after copping a hoof injury.  However he's the best horse in the race so he has to go on top.  He has competed with Black Caviar and Hay List.  The barrier won't be as much of a problem as many people are saying as he has the best front running jockey in Australia on board in Nash Rawiller.  He's in excellent form and deserves this.  Other hopes to Sea Siren, Facile Tigre and Beaded.

***With the scratching of Buffering, I'll make Sea Siren my top pick and add Varenna Miss to the other hopes***


Race 8 - Solzhenitsyn said back me next start when he was bitterly unlucky not to win last time.  He has been absolutely flying since coming back from a spell and I reckon he's cherry ripe to take this out.  Just loves this track and distance.  Other hopes to Oak Street, Mossriver and Viva Las.


Best Bets


Caulfield - Race 1 Number 3 Champagne Ruby
              Race 5 Number 2 Platelet
              Race 7 Number 2 There's Only One
              Race 8 Number 4 Pago Rock


Rosehill - Race 4 Number 1 Delabombell
             Race 5 Number 1 Moriarty
             
Doomben - Race 6 Number 16 Poste Restante
               Race 8 Number 3 Solzhenitsyn  

Friday 4 May 2012

05/05/12 - Flemington, Hawkesbury and Gold Coast

Flemington

Race 1 - Not a race I'm overly keen to get involved in.  We have a field of 2 year olds that are virtually untried on soft going.  For that reason I would be working around Pillar Of Creation and Dazzler.  I would have a slight leaning to Dazzler as it has a 3kg weight advantage over POC.  Also it won by 3 lengths in it's only start and is a More Than Ready so it should get through the ground. 

Race 2 - There should be a reasonable amount of speed up front here. A number of good fillies racing but I've gone with Somaly Miss.  Was successful last start on Anzac Day on heavy going.  In that run it was finishing off nicely so the extra 200m shouldn't be a problem.  Will get a nice trail behind the leaders.  Other hopes to Vain Attraction, Roses In The Glen and Manhattan Maid.

Race 3 - He won't be flash odds but Almodovar should be winning this.  Won well last start over 2600m here on heavy and his previous runs which were also over 2000m plus were good.  Soft ground no problem has beaten the rest of these previously. 

Race 4 - I'm going with Elusive King here.  It has a good 2nd up record and looked good in it's 1st up effort where he finished off nicely.  Can handle a soft track and placed both attempts over this trip.  Other hopes to Shezhou Steed, Testascana and Hawks Bay.

Race 5 - Club Command looks well placed here.  Raced well 1st up when it won at Echuca over 1200m.  Last campaign he came within a whisker of beating That's The One over this trip.  That has to be excellent form to win this.  Has never raced on a soft track but it's by Commands and has raced well on dead so it shouldn't be a problem.  Other hopes to Toned, Cash Bound and Hot Lover.

Race 6 - Supremacy looks right in this down in the weights.  Will race with just 51kg after the claim for Duffy.  Has a great record over this trip, winning 2 and placing 1 from 4 starts.  Has a great record on soft ground.  Other hopes to Laristan, Playwright and Chasse.

Race 7 - It was hard to ignore the finishing burst of Soros last start.  Came from well back in the field over 1600m to narrowly go down.  Drops 1.5kg on that run and the 200m should suit.  Has a slow placing to it's credit.  Other hopes to Chieftain Jack, I Feel Good and Major Coup. 


Race 8 - This is a tough race to finish the program.  I'm going with Tigress Joy.  Ran on reasonably well last start when it favoured leaders.  Has a poor record on slow going, only winning 1 from 7.  This is a pretty average field so I think that might not be as bad in this situation.  Gets a big weight advantage with 54kg on it's back.  Other hopes to Star Of Giselle, Gail and Neriani.


Hawkesbury


Race 1 - I'll have a small wager on Fox in the opener.  Gets the peg and should be able to push into a handy position.  Has raced in a group 2 race a few months back and ran 2nd in a listed race last start.  Could be too classy.  Goes well on a dead surface.  Other hopes to Shade Of Green, You're Canny and Shoot Thru Blu.


Race 2 - Not enough data here for me to bet.


Race 3 - Sacred Pins should be too good for these.  He was scratched from the Guineas to run here.  Lost by less than 2 lengths to Landing who is a potential star last start.  Will be able to roll forward and control things.  

***I was certain Sacred Pins would race here but obviously the stable are confident of it's chances against Landing later on.  I'll make Samui Lad my top pick here. Beltane is the danger***


Race 4 - I'm going with Moriarty in this.  It's had 2 starts since coming over from Ireland and has been finishing off strongly.  The step up to 2250m looks ideal.  Other hopes to Charing Cross, Maximus Gladiator and Marden.

***With the scratching of Moriarty, I'll make Charing Cross my top pick.  Reuben Percival comes in an other hope***


Race 5 - This is a very competitive race with a handful of winning hopes.  I'm going with Sophie's Spirit.  She has a wide gate but she should be able to push across to lead or take a very prominent position.  Her 2nd up record is fair and she goes best on a good to dead track.  She'll be in this for a long way.  Other hopes to Pontiana, Screen and Dystopia.


Race 6 - Star Of Octagonal has been racing very well of late.  He should be able to get a great trail here from the inside.  He has placed in his past 2 around this distance which have been Group quality races.  Other hopes to Alma's Fury, Fast Clip and Wazn.


Race 7 - Landing has been super impressive since coming on the scene.  Won last week over this distance with absolute authority.  I see a repeat dose here.  Next best Sacred Pins, Pied A Terre and Bound To Blush.


Race 8 - Mental looks tough to beat in the last.  Resumes after an impressive campaign where it beat such horses as Niagara and Sacred Pins.  Won a trial leading into this and will be wearing blinkers.  Should be primed for a 1st up attack.  Other hopes to Flyingconi, Flying Empress and Turf Hero.


Gold Coast


Race 1 - Fruehling looks a nice type of a horse.  It's won both it's Australian starts, the last being a 3.5 length win over 2000m.  Is weighted nicely with 54kg.  Has raced well on dead going so I'm taking the chance it will go well on soft going.  Other hopes to Za Magic, Viking Hero and Shamardashing.


Race 2 - Thefifthhole should be able to get to the lead here and dictate terms.  Has a great record at this track and also over this distance.  Can handle soft ground capably.  Other hopes to Kiss Me Deadly, Show Me An Ace and Machination.


Race 3 - I'm going with one at a bit of value here in Rosagaze.  She is 2 from 2 2nd up and has won and run 2nd at her 2 goes on a slow track.  Has a good record at this track and distance.  Other hopes to Rocker, Emvoss and Demanding Miss.

***With the scratching of Emvoss, I'll promote Ruapehu Boy to the other hopes***


Race 4 - It's hard to know how most of these will go on a wet track.  On pure class, you'd have to have Sizzling on top.  It raced really well in it's initial campaign and if it can adequately get through the going then it should be winning.  Having said that, there's a lot of unknowns here so I'll be proceeding with caution.  Other hopes are Dances On Stars, Hoss Amor and Utilism.

*Hoss Amor has been scratched.  I'll add Midnight Fury to the other hopes***


Race 5 - I'm going with Mossriver here.  She has a very good record on wet going and actually was making ground in her previous 2 starts on slow so I'm confident she'll handle the track.  She has a good record over this distance, only finishing out of the placings once from 7 starts.  Has form around the likes of Zero Rock and Rocker. Byrne on board is helpful.  Other hopes to Alltherightmoves, Mascareri and Dual Chamber.


Race 6 - I like the look of the NSW invader Scorpio Queen.  I can't believe the odds on offer here.  This horse ran 6 lengths off Landing last start on slow going.  She's put together a nice record of 3 wins from 6 starts.  Looked good winning over this distance range last prep.  One it's only 2nd up run.  Other hopes to Pretty Pins, Miss Artistic and Angelus.


Race 7 - Mid Sommer Music is the stand out horse here.  Has a terrible barrier but Nolen is no slouch so he should be able to counteract that.  It has form around Atlantic Jewel and Black Caviar.  It's hard to see any of these matching those.  Loves a wet track.  Other hopes to Fillydelphia, Carry Me Bluey and Parables.


Race 8 - Mawingo will get a gun run from the inside here.  Looked a really nice type winning 1st up over 1600m at Flemington.  Has run reasonably well on soft tracks in Group 1 races overseas. Not here for a hair cut.  Other hopes to Wall Street, Scenic Shot and Shez Sinsational.


Race 9 - Easy Running looked good 1st up when running on to win.  Will be further improved 2nd  up and will again get the gun run.  Hasn't been out of the placings on wet tracks.  Other hopes to Morning Captain, Emmalene and Florentina.  Big watch on Punch On.


Best Bets


Flemington - Race 3 Number 2 Almodovar
                  Race 5 Number 2 Club Command


Hawkesbury - Race 7 Number 4 Landing
                     Race 8 Number 11 Mental


Gold Coast - Race 6 Number 10 Scorpio Queen e/w
                  Race 8 Number 12 Mawingo 
                  Race 9 Number 1 Easy Running