26/12/13 - Silk Birthday Edition

Well if ever there was a day that the punting god would shine a positive light on the Silk, it's today.  Yes I'm another year older.  Probably not wiser if the hangover I'm predicting I'll be suffering is anything to go by.  What better way to celebrate your birthday than having a bet and beer.  Let's get into it!

I'll keep this simple and just include my top picks.  

Sunshine Coast

Before I get into the tips, let me just say that this is a very average meeting so be very careful.  It's more a get involved type of meeting than let's smack a few.  

Race 1 - Tracey's Angel (4)

Race 2 - Zellaro (1)

Race 3 - Iona Fast One (6)

Race 4 - Mavro (4)

Race 5 - Screaming Jet (6)

Race 6 - Wish Upon A Star (1)

Race 7 - Lucky Baa (6)

Race 8 - Cracow (3)


Caulfield

Race 1 - No trials, no bet

Race 2 - Mango Mojito (4)

Race 3 - Championmet (4)

Race 4 - Belle Que (3)

Race 5 - Floatmyboat (10)

Race 6 - Nautical (8)

Race 7 - Don't Get Excited (8)

Race 8 - Initiator (10)


Randwick

Race 1 - Nightingales (4)

Race 2 - Tulla Touch (6)

Race 3 - Shamalia (12)

Race 4 - Chiaroscuro (3)

Race 5 - La Pieta (2)

Race 6 - Destiny's Kiss (3)

Race 7 - Centre Pivot (9)

Race 8 - Jacinta (10)  

21/12/13 - Doomben, Flemington and Rosehill

Last Saturday was one of those days that just didn't get going.  We found just the 6 winners.  These being Oakleigh Girl $1.50 and Into The Red $2.00 at Doomben, Kiss Me Ketut $5.30, The Peak $4.90 and Electric Fusion $3.30 at Flemington and Koroibete $3.10 at Kensington. 

I'm getting into holiday mode so I won't be doing a write up for Doomben.  I'll just give my top pick in each race.  

Doomben

Race 1 - Divine Service (2)

Race 2 - Seeking More (2)

Race 3 - General Exhibit (6)

Race 4 - Love Shuttle (12)

Race 5 - Emerald Duke (2)

Race 6 - Miss Husson (4)

Race 7 - Bingo Rose (2)

Race 8 - Morning Captain (2)

Race 9 - Altai Warrior (2)

***I seem to be drawn to the number 2.  Good luck with that Silk haha***


Flemington

Race 1 - Gracious Prospect (2)

Race 2 - The Minister (8)

Race 3 - Blazing Dragon (5)

Race 4 - Oltre Finito (2)

Race 5 - Sistine Demon (5)

Race 6 - Anlon (5)

Race 7 - Angelology (5)

Race 8 - Awasita (7)

***I was drawn to the number 2 at Doomben and now I'm drawn to the 5 at Flemington. Sheesh***
Rosehill

Race 1 - Pentometer (6)

Race 2 - Cyclone (2)

Race 3 - Global Dream (2)

Race 4 - Longshoreman (2)

Race 5 - Northern Glory (9)

Race 6 - Eigelstein (7)

Race 7 - Two Blue (6)

Race 8 - Mount Nebo (2)   

20/12/13 - Moonee Valley

With hot weather and the rail out 5m, I thought I'd have a go at Moonee Valley Friday night.  With those conditions front runners should enjoy an advantage.  Just how the Silk likes the Valley. 

 

Race 1 - Synthetic (8)

 

Race 2 - Katherine Gorge (6)

 

Race 3 - West Africa (5)

 

Race 4 - Reckless Assassin (3)

 

Race 5 - Cahier (5)

 

Race 6 - Settlers Way (10)

 

Race 7 - Five All (3)

 

Race 8 - Inflection (12)

14/12/13 - Doomben, Flemington and Kensington

Well last week's Involvement Special resulted in an 18% return.  We found 16 winners and 11 placings from 41 races looked at.  6 of the 10 best bets saluted.  The winners being:

Doomben: Stroak $1.80, The White Hope $1.70 and Love Rocks $1.60

Randwick: Sinjoren $2.80, Calming Influence $3.30, Solemn $2.90 and Messene $3.10

Caulfield: Lord Of The Sky $1.40, Lord Durante $3.40, Marden $4.90 and Winta Chiller $2.70

Morphettville: Lucky Symbol $2.00

Ascot: Newton Prince $4.10, Petrol Power $2.80, Knightlike $5.90 and Rose Of Choice $3.90

Overall I'd say the commitment to involvement paid off.  I won't be getting as involved this week with just Doomben, Flemington and Kensington being looked at. 

Doomben

Race 1 

The track is currently rated a dead 4 Thursday afternoon.  There's a chance of showers over the next few days but I don't think that will change the racing surface.  If we don't get any precipitation then we may even get an improvement.  To get The Silk in a great mood to start the day, we have the obligatory 2000m+ race.  This is racing's version of pass the parcel.  So who's going to get the present when the music stops this week?  Your guess is as good as mine!  I'll have a small involvement bet on Trajet (4).   He's always around the mark in these races and gets the gun run to feature again.  This is shown by the fact he's been in the placings or won 5 times from 7.  Won narrowly over this trip at Eagle Farm last start  and won here over 2200m 3 starts ago.  In between was a forgettable Melbourne run.  Other hopes to Poste Restante (1), Mukaddamah Son (3) and Gold Cape (7).

***With the scratching of Gold Cape I'll add Mr Light Blue (5) to the other hopes***

Race 2

Venture On (1) has run 2nd his past 3 starts with a combined margin of roughly a length.  His foot has been on the till but can he open it?  I'm thinking today's the day.  He's drawn to get an excellent run.  Last start Top Rada grabbed him in the last few strides and he meets that horse 1.5kg better off here.  It could be said that Top Rada was assisted by the heavy track, a surface it thrives in.  Other hopes to Top Rada (2), Flying Jet (3) and All Taken (6).

Race 3

The Phelan Ready Stakes for the 2 year old boys sees the horses that have raced drawn wide and the debutantes drawn in close.  Vienna Royale (1) brained the opposition  by 5.5 lengths in it's only race back in October.  He was put out to spell after that and resumes here.  He looked an exciting and very quick lad and unless there's something special in the unraced brigade I can't see him getting beaten.  He's drawn the outside gate but his superior toe should see him get across easily.  Other hopes to Eljetem (2), Lacarda Rain (11) and Speedshow (9).

Race 4

The Calaway Gal Stakes is for the 2 year old girls and it looks a much better race than the previous race for the boys.  It will definitely provide a few for us to follow.  The leading candidate has to be the Danny Bougoure trained Oakleigh Girl (1).  She made her debut and only run in a Group 3 up the straight at Flemington just over a month ago.  She was emphatic that day winning by 1.3 lengths.  She's drawn barrier 3 and will get a glorious run for Micky Cahill.  Other hopes to Totally Sure (2), Eltist (7) and Ruby Soho (3).

Race 5

Jacquetta (7) is a model of consistency as shown by the fact she's only been out of the placings 4 times in 15 starts.  She resumed 2 weeks ago and was narrowly beaten by Lady Echelon over 1200m.  She meets that horse much better at the weights.  She showed incredible toughness to race 3 and 5 lengths wide and still produce a strong finish.  Two starts back she narrowly went down to Pickabee who is a top horse over 1300m so the trip shouldn't worry her.  She'll be able to box seat with the lack of pace in this race and will prove hard to catch in the straight.  Other hopes to Casino Card (10), Anna Lizzie (9) and Lady Echelon (1).

Race 6

The majority of the leading contenders here come out of the Recognition Stakes 2 weeks ago.  With no Absalom today, I'm sticking with my pick in the Recognition, Fillydelphia (1).  She had the measure of them that day and nothing really changes at the weights so I can't see them turning the tables.  She races well at the track and particulary so at the distance.  Her past 2 races have been excellent.  Other hopes to Black Cash (4), Someday (2) and Essington (10).  (Can somebody give me a price on Essington to run 4th?  He's finished 4th his past 6!)

Race 7

Into The Red (6) drew poorly when resuming 2 weeks ago.  On that occasion he raced 3 and 4 wide before making a run 6 wide on the turn.  He narrowly lost to Rudy when he understandably ran out of gas late.  I think with increased fitness and a charmed barrier draw in 3, this Kelso Wood colt will be hard to beat.  Other hopes to Rudy (4), Choose A Saga (5) and Olympic Anthem (12).

Race 8

How Stradon is a top horse has been talked about incessantly.  I've been sucked in before and yes it has run some good races.  However the fact remains, it has won once in 13 starts.  I'm going with the more consistent and arguably more talented Regular (3).  He resumes here on the back of a nice trial.  He's drawn magically in barrier 2 which will give apprentice Janette Johnson (claims 3kg) an easy time of it in getting the horse into a super position.  He'll be able to race on the pace and then put in a strong finish.  Other hopes to Stradon (14), Merryanna (12) and After Baron (9).

Best Bets Doomben

All up : Race 2 - Venture On (1)
           Race 3 - Vienna Royale (1)
           Race 4 - Oakleigh Girl (1)
           Race 6 - Fillydelphia (1)

Go The 1's!


Flemington

Race 1 - Pass. Too many unknowns

Race 2 - Kiss Me Ketut (6)

Race 3 - Flamberge (4)

Race 4 - The Peak (4)

Race 5 - Freshwater Storm (4)

Race 6 - Morant (6)

Race 7 - Electric Fusion (7)

Race 8 - Prince Of Penzance (1)

Best Bet Flemington

Race 3 - Flamberge (4)


Kensington

Race 1 - The Alfonso (5)   

Race 2 - Super Willie (5)

Race 3 - Koroibete (8)

Race 4 - Secessio (4)

Race 5 - Dark Brown Sugar (5)

Race 6 - Taxmeifyoucan (12)

Race 7 - Sultry Assassin (10)

Race 8 - Heart Testa (7)

Best Bet Kensington

Race 8 - Heart Testa (7)

    

 

07/12/13 - Doomben, Caulfield, Kensington, Morphettville and Ascot

Well last Saturday was a bit of a shocker with just the 1 winner found at Doomben.  That was the very handy Emerald Duke who paid the princely sum of $4.80.  That was quite the steal!  Fillydelphia and Missing Page ran 2nd but overall it was a forgettable meeting. 

On a personal note it was a decent day with a number of winners interstate.  The most memorable being Money Bags in the get out in Adelaide.  Love it when a smack comes off.  It's infuriating though because I look like a mug on here with 1 from 7 but can find numerous winners throughout day that I don't have listed. (Yes that sounds like a typical story but for proof you can ask The Snorkel on twitter @slyboy47)

Anyway I'm probably putting the mock on myself by including my picks for 5 meetings this week but who knows, I could surprise.  Involvement.....high! 

Doomben

Race 1

The track should be dead with possible improvement to good come raceday.  (The track is rated good Saturday morning).  There's a chance of showers/storm Thursday but fine weather after that.  With racing here on Friday, it will be interesting to see how the track plays.  We kick off the day with a 2 year old race.  Stroak (3) grabbed the biscuits for us when it debuted back in October.  It won by 1.8 lengths with 3rd a further 5.5 lengths back.  It's drawn nicely in barrier 4 for Michael Cahill to get the gun run.  Other hopes to Verbier (4), Keep On Rocking (2) and Give Me Time (7). 

***Verbier has been scratched.  I struggled last night to replace Groomed For Glory so I won't bother looking for another hope for Verbier****

Race 2

Seek And Find (1) resumed 2 weeks ago after a year off the scene with a 2 length 2nd to Rocky King.  It was a nice hit out for a horse that doesn't really fire 1st up and given the time in the paddock.  He has a much better 2nd up record and will have some extra fitness on his side.  He meets Rocky King 1.5kg better at the weights.  On his side is the fact Rocky King has preferred racing at Eagle Farm.  Whereas this bloke loves Doomben, winning 6 from 13 and 3 from 5 at the distance.  He'll get the box seat run from barrier 3.  Other hopes to Rocky King (2), General Exhibit (6) and Lennie's Choice (7).

Race 3

Is this some sort of sick joke?  Here's this week's edition of the distance race and to really make things difficult, we have a field of 14.  Please!  I've put my hand in the barrel and drawn out Catalonia (5).  This mare has an average winning strike rate but she's been racing well this campaign and looks ready to win.  Last start she was finishing strongly over this trip and narrowly went down to Trajet and Volkhere.  The onpacers were favoured that day but with the bigger field and more speed, I suggest that will bring this girl right into it.  Other hopes to Volkhere (1), Master Avatar (3) and Maling (2).

Race 4

This is a very good race for 3 year old fillies.  We have Missy Longstocking returning from Melbourne and at set weights looks a nice proposition.  However there's a few other nice types in this that won't allow her to have it her own way.  I see Missy, Enquare and Splendora fighting this out.  I can't back them all so I've gone with Splendora (5).  This filly has come back as a 3 year old in tremendous style.  She's won all 3 of her races and beaten some nice horses in the process.  When she resumed she beat Shiraz Attack who has been awesome lately.  Her last start win at the Sunny Coast was a braining.  I really like the way she finds the line and just think she represents better value.  Other hopes to Missy Longstocking (1), Enquare (2) and Global Dream (3).  

Race 5

What a way to start the quadrella!  This is a very open affair with many of the fancied runners drawn out wide.  The speed should be solid with quite a lot of these likely to push forward due to wide barriers and/or their natural racing style.  Miss Husson (10) is one that will be favoured by the strong tempo.  She gets back and hits the line hard.  Based on her past 3 starts, she's crying out for the 1600m here.  Gets the services of Chris Munce who will know when to push the button on this filly in the straight.  Other hopes to Kalandula (9), Some Call Her Wild (11) and Amexed (15).

Race 6

The White Hope (7) is a box ticker if ever I saw one.  Undefeated in 2 starts at the track, undefeated in 2 2nd up runs and winner at only start at the distance.  He's drawn nicely to take up his customary front position for Glen Colless.  He'll prove hard to catch.  Other hopes to Congo (6), Written Above All (11) and Vacallo (8).  

***Written Above All has been scratched.  I'll add Renewed Vitality (2) to the other hopes***

Race 7

The George Moore Stakes looks an excellent race and is certain to provide Josh Hanson of Qld Racing Tips fame a great memory for his going away bash.  If you see Josh at Doomben, buy the man a beer as he's moving to Canberra and understandably will need a pick me up.  Back to the George Moore.  I'm an unabashed Cape Kidnappers (14) fan.  This bloke has never been out of the quinella in 10 starts.  7 of those have been wins.  He resumed here just over a month ago and won emphatically.  He then went to Sydney where he narrowly lost to Heart Testa.  This guy is a talented individual no doubt about it.  He has loves this track and will get a lovely run for Ric McMahon.  Other hopes to Morning Captain (3), Benny's Buttons (5) and Steel Zip (10).

***Very disappointed to see Cape Kidnappers scratched.  I'll make Morning Captain (3) my top pick and give Liesele (12) a chance***

Race 8

It was very hard to ignore the effort of Love Rocks (14) last start when it put the sword to a similar field to this.  It goes up just half a kilo for winning by 3.5 lengths and I expect it to be winning again.  It races well at the track and should be able to place itself in a decent position despite the awkward alley.  Other hopes to Qfighter (7), Lucky Sound (9) and Viking Heart (11).

***With the scratching of Lucky Sound I'll make Kempelly (13) an other hope***

Best Bets Doomben

Race 6 - The White Hope (7)

Race 8 - Love Rocks (14)      


Caulfield

Race 1 - Lord Of The Sky (2)

Race 2 - Mokoro (4)

Race 3 - Mango Mojito (7)

Race 4 - Lord Durante (8)

Race 5 - Loveyamadly (4)

Race 6 - Magnus Reign (9)

Race 7 - Marden (3)

Race 8 - Winta Chiller (12)



Best Bet Caulfield

Race 1 - Lord Of The Sky (2)

Race 5 - Loveyamadly (4)



Kensington

Race 1 - Sinjoren (4)

Race 2 - Occitan (9)

Race 3 - Perplexity (2)

Race 4 - Calming Influence (1)

Race 5 - Solemn (5)

Race 6 - Field Marshall (3)

Race 7 - Berrimilla (1) 

Race 8 - Messene (7)


Best Bets Kensington

Race 4 - Calming Influence (1)

Race 8 - Messene (7)


Morphettville

Race 1 - Maccy Fields (4)

Race 2 - Lucky Symbol (1)

Race 3 - Dontmentionthewar (4)

Race 4 - Gossip Guru (2)

Race 5 - Tristacat (6)

Race 6 - Back On Target (5)

Race 7 - Essay Raider (14), something on Action Again e/w

Race 8 - On A Dream (1)


Best Bets Morphettville

Race 4 - Gossip Guru (2)

Race 6 - Back On Target (5)


Ascot

Race 1 - Jester Derriere (6)

Race 2 - Kheleva (1)

Race 3 - Newton Prince (4)

Race 4 - Petrol Power (1)

Race 5 - Kerrific (3)

Race 6 - Knightlike (10)

Race 7 - Rose Of Choice (7)

Race 8 - Luckygray (1)

Race 9 - Northpace (15) 


Best Bets Ascot

Race 2 - Kheleva (1)

Race 7 - Rose Of Choice (7)
          

30/11/13 - Doomben

Last week saw the return of The Silk after a freshen up.  It wasn't a bad 1st up run.  Nothing to write home about but still a nice hit out for a 2nd up assault. 

We found 7 winners across 3 meetings and 1 very nice 1st 4 at Eagle Farm.  These being Miss Leibert $7.30, Better Than Ready $2.40 and race 5's 1st 4 $1656 at Eagle Farm, Nautical $3.00 and Zephyron $6.40 at Moonee Valley and Elite Belle $2.60, Petrol Power $3.10 and Buffering $2.10 at Ascot.  

Doomben

Race 1

Checking out the forecast for Saturday doesn't fill me with confidence.  Talk of heavy morning rain is a real worry.  The track is currently rated dead and that's what I'm going to base my form on.  Having said that, I'll have a wet track in the back of my mind.

***Well the rain has come and the track is already rated a slow 6 at 9am.  I think it's safe to say that it's not going to clear in a hurry and we should be looking for wet trackers.  *** 

In race 1, the weather is the least of our concerns with all but 1 of the 10 2 years unraced.  Some haven't trialled so unless your motto is "Involvement is the key" then it would be best to avoid.  I'm going with the Bryan Guy trained Castanita (7).  This filly has had the 1 trial at the Gold Coast which she won in reasonable time.  She gets the services of Michael Cahill and although she's drawn out wide, I think she'll have the necessary pep to get into a good position.  Small interest bets only here as there's so much unknown.  Other hopes to That Pretty Girl (6), Eljetem (2) and Groomed For Glory (4).

Race 2

Who's got the winning raffle ticket this week?  Our weekly edition of the 2000m + race sees some of the familiar faces of the staying ranks.  There's no doubt Poste Restante put the sword to them the last time out but he rises to 59kg.  Although I think he'll run a great race, I'm looking elsewhere.  Gold Cape (6) won 2 starts back and finished a close 2nd last time.  She's hit the line hard in both races over 1800m so the 2200m here looks ideal.  She will carry 55kg and I believe that will be an advantage.  Other hopes to Poste Restante (2), Mr Light Blue (5) and Raeburn (4).

Race 3

There looks to be plenty of speed in this race with at least a handful of runners that will want to push forward.  That will play into the hands of the resuming Caballo Rapido (7).  Although this guy prefers racing over 1600-1800m, he does race well fresh and the strong pace will suit his strong finish.  We saw the potential of this guy last campaign when he won a class 6 in style.  He warmed up for this with some strong work this week.  Michael Cahill takes the ride and will carry 54kg.  Other hopes to Achievements (1), The Black Superman (12) and Isis Devil (4).

Race 4

Emerald Duke (7) stamped itself as a serious racehorse last start when it won in tough circumstances.  I liked that fighting spirit and it will need to demonstrate that again here.  Steps up to 1600m and has drawn wide.  Wide barriers are not foreign to it and as seen in it's last 2 wins, they are not a stopper.  This horse has plenty of improvement unlike a lot of these and think class will go a long way to getting a victory here.  Other hopes to Plumage (13), Danyme (10) and Tail And All (2).

Race 5

This is a great race to kick off the Quaddie.  There's so many good quality sprinters here that you could make a case for half the field.  I'm going with Liesele (2).  She resumed in Melbourne 2 starts ago where she won the Alinghi Stakes.  She then ran just under 3 lengths off Dystopia in the Group 3 G.H Mumm.  At set weight conditions that is terrific form for this.  She races well at the track/distance and will get the gun run from barrier 5.  Other hopes to Jacquetta (7), Discreet (3) and Words Are Weapons (9).

Race 6

Missing Page (6) rises 2kg in the weights following her impressive win last start but I don't think that will be enough to stop her.  She draws the peg here and that should ensure jockey Ric McMahon places her in a beautiful position.  She's won 3 of 4 and has looked good in all wins with strong finishes.  Other hopes to Rudy (5), Neuschwanstein (7) and Choose A Saga (2).

Race 7

Fillydelphia (2) was impressive winning by 3.3 lengths last start.  She carries an extra 3kg here but she's a classy mare that's capable of carrying it to victory.  She draws beautifully on the inside and Michael Cahill will be able to position her nicely in the 1st few before pulling away in the straight.  Her record at the track and distance is excellent running in the quinella 4 out of 5.  Other hopes to Black Cash (3), Dolly Dolly (5) and Absalon (10).

Race 8

Congo (4) has drawn the car park which isn't ideal but with the scratching of Hampden, he should be able to lead or take up a forward position with few problems.  He's been a nice money earner for Silk supporters lately and I'm sticking solid.  He meets Venture On better at the weights for beating that horse twice recently.  The beauty of this guy is that he does it at both ends and to cut to the chase, the way he's won his past 2 is hard to ignore.  Other hopes to Powerful Jet (11), Venture On (1) and Chalupa (16).

Best Bet

Race 7 - Fillydelphia (2)


Best Value Bet

Race 3 - Caballo Rapido (7)              

23/11/13 - Eagle Farm, Moonee Valley and Ascot

The Silk is back after a week off and I'm hitting it hard.  Much like I did last weekend in Sydney but that's a different story.  I'll be taking my usual look at Brisbane racing but I'll also be including Moonee Valley where I have a great record and also Ascot where they have the big Winterbottom Stakes meetings.  Should be a cracker. 

With nothing to discuss from last week, let's get straight into it!  Involvement will be high so 
strap yourself in!

Eagle Farm

Working out what sort of track we'll be racing on is a bit hit and miss.  As of Friday morning it's rated a dead 4.  While the weather is fine and around the 30 degree mark, there is the very real chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and also Saturday.  I couldn't see the track be any better than dead but it could also get worse than that.  So I'll be basing my form on a dead/slow track.  

***The track's come up good this morning so I got that completely wrong.  Having said that I really don't think it's going to matter with the horses I've picked.  We'll be covered if it rains throughout the day.*** 

Race 1

As is the case at this time of year, we open with a race for 2 year olds.  Only 4 of these have raced so betting here can be risky.  Particularly when some of the unraced haven't trialled.  Elitist (7) comes out of the Kelso Wood stable with a big wrap.  Kelso has downplayed the horse in today's Courier Mail but I believe he's got a nice type in this horse.  It won it's only trial by close to 2 lengths with plenty in hand.  She's drawn wide but I believe she has the necessary speed to get into a nice position for Chris Munce.  Getting into avoidable even money odds but she does look the one to beat.  Other hopes to Sleep Tight (11), Storming Pleasure (5) and Ruby Soho (10).

Race 2

I had hope they'd canned these 2100m races in my absence but unfortunately not.  Shame Borehole isn't racing, I'd just like him in.  However he's not so I'll take the next best and that's Sadler's Wish (8).  Last start he finished 3 lengths off Borehole but did run 3 wide and put up a reasonable fight in the straight before fading.  She gets in with just 52kg after the claim for Priscilla Schmidt and meets Volkhere so much better at the weights.  Draws nicely to get a great cart into the race.  She won't be fazed if the track is wet on raceday.  Other hopes to Trajet (4), Catalonia (10) and Master Avatar (6).  

Race 3

Speed should be solid here with horses drawn barriers 7-10 all likely to push forward early.  I'm going with Miss Leibert (3).  She enters this on the back of a win over this distance at this track.  She draws in barrier 1 here and Priscilla Schmidt who claims 2kg can position her just off the speed.  Her stocks will go up the track is rain affected but she can handle any going.  She races well at this track with 6 placings from 9 starts.  Schmidt also appears to be a bonus for this horse.  Other hopes in a tough race Chezza's Treasure (8), Some Call Her Wild (7) and For Mia (1). 

Race 4

Shiraz Attack (5) won well last time out for Silk supporters and I think she can repeat the dose here.  Although she's drawn wide, trainer Gillian Heinrich believes she can settle anywhere and still win.  Last start she got back and ran on and you'd have to think the same thing will happen here.  The step up to 1500m will suit based on the way she hit the line with gusto.  With luck in running she'll be hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Sister Souss (7), Friendly Dragon (1) and Flamboyer (2).

Race 5

This looks a tricky way to kick of the Quadrella.  I'm going with Lennie's Choice (8).  He resumed in Sydney a fortnight ago and ran a game 5th by 1.2 lengths after taking up the running.  He'll be all the fitter for that blow out 2nd up here.  He has a great record at the track and distance winning 4 of 6.  Ric McMahon takes the ride and won the only time he was on top.  Ric should be able to scoot across from barrier 7 to take up the running or box seat.  Has a good record on wet tracks so any rain won't harm his chances.  Other hopes to Seek And Find (1), Rocky King (3) and Mr Favulous (4).

Race 6

A good barrier looks crucial in this even affair.  Many of the better chances have drawn wide and may need to burn gas early or go back.  One horse that will get a beautiful run with minimal effort is Cracco (5).  He's drawn barrier 3 for Ric McMahon and will be able to sit in the box seat or not too far off the lead from this great gate.  The horse is racing in good form with a couple of wins over this trip in his past 5 starts.  Last start he was very good after a freshen up when narrowly going down to Emerald Duke which is good form for this.  He'll be fitter and will prove hard to catch.  Other hopes Written Above All (3), Jack's Back (1) and Vacallo (2).

Race 7

A lot of talk has centred around the 60.5kg Better Than Ready (1) has to carry.  I agree that this is a disadvantage but he well and truly earns it given he is a Group 1 performed horse.  He resumed 2 weeks ago in blistering style putting away an open field with relative ease with this weight.  Sure this is a step up in quality but this bloke is all class.  Audacious Spirit will lead but I don't think he'll get it all his own way as some think.  That will help BTR with his powerful finish.  His record at the track is excellent with 4 wins from 7.  Importantly he has his main man Ric McMahon in the saddle who has ridden the horse to all 7 of his wins.  If it rains, it won't worry him at all.  Other hopes to Morning Captain (2), Someday (8) and QFighter (15).

Race 8

Lucky Sound (2) narrowly went down 1st up over this trip when his fitness gave out late.  He'll be all the better for that run and his 2nd up record is excellent winning 2 from 2.  He races well at this track and distance as shown by the fact he's never been in out of the quinella in 4 starts.  Any downgrade in the track will not bother this guy.  Other hopes to The White Hope (7), Casino Card (8) and Simply Smart (10). 


Moonee Valley

Race 1 - Romancingthestone (1)

Race 2 - Jumpin Jack Cash (2)

Race 3 - Nautical (11)

Race 4 - Xavi (9)

Race 5 -Planet Voyage (4)

Race 6 - Zephyron (6)

Race 7 - Such Hope (4)

Race 8 - Sumakaray  (1)


Ascot

Race 1 - Maximus Mak (2)

Race 2 - Elite Belle (9)

Race 3 - Petrol Power (1)

Race 4 - Rohan (4)

Race 5 - Takanori (16)

Race 6 - Vitello (9)

Race 7 - Buffering (1)

Race 8 - Fire Up Fifi (9)

Race 9 - Dark Delight (11)

     

Saturday In Review 09/11/13

Firstly I'd like to pass on my deepest condolences to the family and friends of Desiree Gill who was tragically taken doing the thing she loved.  I'm sure the racing industry will rally around the Gill's at this sad time.       

 

For a few years now, I've put up my tips on a Saturday.  I'm in for the fun but if I can help someone find a winner or 2 then all the better.  Anyway, I've never really reviewed the previous day's racing so I thought it was about time I did.  However this won't be your typical review.  So many sources provide a more professional run down than I could.  To be honest I find that boring.   There will be no who we should be following or who was unlucky.  This will be a review of my day on the punt as a S Team member.

 

Many of you will know me from twitter and facebook.  You may also know The Snorkel, Wayne McGrath.  Over the past year or so, Snorkel and I have used facebook chat on a Saturday to discuss our bets, to encourage each other to "smack 'em"  and generally just having a laugh.  The S Team and a virtual pub TAB was formed!  This has been a godsend for me as I'm stuck working all day and to be honest, it keeps me from going mad.

 

As a rule the S Team start slowly and come home like a train.  Not sure why that is but I have a feeling that it has something to do with the Snork's beer consumption.  The more he drinks, the more confidence he gets which leads him to egging me on.  Anyway yesterday we both got off to a winning start.  The Snork backed his old mate Don's favourite horse Capital Commander who was expertly ridden by Kathy O'hara.  Nice early get Snork!  I then took the $2.50 on offer for Contact at Geelong.  Money for jam and we were away.  

 

As you may or may not know, I'm a newsagent so I'm getting up at 3am each day and working through to 6pm.  I go for a kip between 12 and 2 so on a Saturday I'll put on my bets to cover that time frame.  Before I go for my sleep, I put an Eagle Farm Quadrella on for 100%, a Flemington Quadrella on for 20%, a few placecards, a win multi on Borehole, Setfire To Therain, Stradon, Tail And All and Better Than Ready. I also put a place multi on all my Eagle Farm Silk top picks. I'm feeling pretty good about my Eagle Farm picks so I smack a couple using the Best Fluctuation option.

 

I awake to find Borehole $3.31 (some of these prices seem weird because i've used Sportingbet's best tote +5%), Setfire To Therain $1.63, Foreign Prince $4.78 (Snork's Sydney mail) and  Shiraz Attack $3.80 have won. Unfortunately my Flemington bets are duds.  That was the theme all day!  I'm also devastated to find that Stradon has failed and as it will turn out, a massive collect will go begging.   

 

I'm back in the saddle so it's S Team time now and Snork's about 8 stubbies in so things are starting to get moving.  First bet after the spell, I see an easy target at Newcastle and smack the quinella in race 5.  Sure it only pays $2.50 but it was as close a thing to a certainty as you'll find.  It duly salutes and the punting juices are flowing.  

 

It's time for Better Than Ready to resume and Snork and I discuss whether this is a smack opportunity.  Snork's keen but I'm a little wary.  When doing the form I was worried that the weight might get him and/or they'd be too nippy for him 1st up.  With Bargearse Hanson's words ringing in my ears about class and Snork's enthusiasm, I decide to bite the bullet and go hard at BTR.  What was I worried about?  He wins nicely and I get $3.10 for him.  I'm thinking that's a spoil until I hear Snork got $3.50.  The first mention of a Vodka Vomit comes from Snork.  For  those that don't know, when Snork's winning on the punt he picks up his drinking (changing from beer to vodka) to the point he ends up in Coma City.  It's a magical thing haha.

 

 

After a few dud bets around the traps, Flemington race 8 comes up.  I tip Let's Make A Deal but am worried about Precedence.  I decide to box up 4 horses (Precedence, Forgotten Voice, Sertorius and Let's Make A Deal) in a trifecta.  Collect!  Except I quickly realise they run the 1st 4 and after a few dud 1st 4 attempts earlier, I'm kicking myself I didn't stick with it.  Oh well, I tell myself a collect is a collect.

 

Involvement is picking up and we're betting everywhere.  The metros and also Newcastle, Gold Coast and Geelong now.  It doesn't take long for the next winner to come up.  I don't mind Absalon at Randwick and have a bit of a nibble.  It gets up at $6.25 and I couldn't be happier.  Although Snork doesn't give it a chance, he's pleased that I had a collect.     

 

It's time for Tail and All to go around in race 6 at Eagle Farm.  This is 1 of my best bets of the day and the inevitable call comes from Snork "Let's smack it!" I inform him that I already have but seeing the $5.20 on offer,  I give it some more stick.  I really don't know why it was this price. I would have thought it would have been around $3.50 but I'm not complaining.  Then just to make sure of things, I go hard again.  This could be the end of the day for me or I could be choking on my own vomit.  You little beauty!  Tail And All finishes off well to salute.  It's party time for the S Team and grave concerns are held for the Snork's health! 

 

The last race at Flemington comes around and I'm on Limes.  More importantly I'm alive in the quad with 5 horses.  Although Limes does nothing, Longport wins and I've got it!  I give out a "Nash 4 Cash" (as you do) and then think gee, I wish I had a bit more cash to throw around when I put the quadrella bet on. 

 

We go a few bets without a win and I really like the look of one in race 7 at the Gold Coast.  Top weight Simply Smart gets up for the team, paying $4.36.  Again a surprising price but one I'll gratefully accept.  I probably should say that we do not do form on these non-metro meetings.  Generally what happens is that when we're in heavy involvement mode, I'll quickly scan over the form about 5-10 minutes before the race, come up with one and then ask Snork what he likes.  If we both like the same horse then we smack it.  If different then we go the quinella as well.  We'll never make a living from the punt with this method but by god we have fun!  

 

By this stage Snork is full of piss and bad manners.  Well mainly piss.  He's out of control and just smacking everything.  He gives Terravista an absolute hiding in the last at Randwick.  It gets up and I'm kicking myself as to why I didn't listen and support my mate. 

 

I'm in a bit of a dry spell of some 8 bets when Ascot race 4 comes around.  Celebrity Miss and King Of The Palace look the 2 so I go the quinella.  Turns out I'm correct and it pays $5.60.  I'll take that any day of the week.  Snork also hammers Celebrity Miss.  He can do no wrong at the moment.   

 

Straight after Ascot we're into the last at Morphettville.  I ask Snork what he likes and he quickly replies with confidence, Get Pronto.   Right we're going the smack again.  It easily gets up and we're laughing all the way to the bank.  Snork jokingly requests an ambulance or someone to give him a gut pump but I suspect there was an element of seriousness to it haha.    

 

The days drawing to a close and we just have the last at Eagle Farm to come.  I've got Theft here and the Go Tegs chant starts up between me and Snork.  We're massive Tegan Harrison fans.  I'm alive in the quad with 5 horses running.  When De Dozen Stars gets up to win I give an almighty fist pump.  I've jagged the quaddie.  $700 odd bucks sounds like a bloody good way to finish the day.  However it gets better.  Being new to Sportingbet, I didn't realise you get to choose which tote you put your quad on.  Turns out I was on the Victorian TAB and got an extra $200.  Winning!  

 

Feeling confident after a profitable day on the punt, I decide to quickly put down a quaddie in Perth.  Shouldn't have bothered as I'm out first leg.  A couple other interest bets at Sunny Coast and Ascot result in nothing so I decide it's time to call it a day.  My old mate Snork is by this stage paraletic.  He's talking all sorts of gibberish and praising me for my 5 from 8 effort at Eagle Farm (we both forget how bad Flemington was!).  I last heard from him around 7.30pm at which time I believe he was in Coma City with Vodka dribbling down his chin! 

 

Well there you go.  A day in the punting life of the S Team.  Although we've had a great day on the punt yesterday, we're reminded this morning about the dangers of the sport we love.  RIP Desiree Gill.  The courage and risks jockeys take every time they mount a horse should never be forgotten.     

       

 

  

 

 

 

     

 

 



09/11/13 - Eagle Farm and Flemington

Last Saturday wasn't too bad for The Silk.  We found 6 winners and 4 placings from the 17 races looked at.  At Doomben the winners were Pinch River $1.00 (dead heat), Elmantosh $2.70, Rare Ruby $2.20 and Morning Captain $2.80.  While the Flemington winners were Polanski $5.30 and Zoustar $2.10.  Notable placegetters were Let's Make A Deal and Spirit Of Boom who paid upwards of $3 for the place.  

As already highlighted in my last post, Melbourne Cup day was forgettable.  We hit back to some degree on Thursday's Oaks day meeting.  We found 3 winners on the card.  These being Marmelo $3.10, Dystopia $5.10 and Kirramosa $2.70.  2 narrow 2nds to Snitzerland and Espirit Rossa could have sent us into Vodka Vomit territory if they'd lifted just that little bit extra.  

With the housekeeping out of the way, let's get involved in Emirates Stakes Day!

Eagle Farm

Race 1

Nothing has changed weather wise with perfect blue skies and 30 degree days.  Track rated good obviously.  We kick off things with a 2200m race with just 6 engaged.  Perhaps trainers are getting sick of these races like The Silk!  Borehole (1) is racing in good form and I'll have it on top.  It's got a lot of weight to carry but it showed last start that didn't worry it.  It's record over the trip is a good 1 with 3 wins from 10 and Eagle Farm is obviously his track.  He'll be able to lead or boxseat and prove hard to hold out in the straight.  Hardest to beat Volkhere (2). 

Race 2

The 2 year old fillies go around here with almost half the field 1st starters.  We'll stick with what we know and support Setfire To Therain (1).  This lass trialed well behind fellow 1st start winner Pinch River and then came out and won fairly comfortably herself a few weeks ago.  I suspect she'll do the same thing by pinging the lids and taking up the running.  Given she's got race fitness on her side, she'll be even harder to pass in the straight.  Other hopes to Wicked Temptation (8), Kai Hayyler (5) and Storming Pleasure (7).

Race 3

This is a competitive race for 3 year olds over 1400m.  I'm going with the Gillian Heinrich trained Shiraz Attack (7).  This filly broke through last start for her 1st win in impressive style over the 1350m.  The run before that she narrowly lost to Splendora who came out last week and won.  At her debut she ran 2nd to Friendly Dragon but that horse had the benefit of a race prior and Shiraz Attack meets him better at the weights here.  Jockey Tim Bell will be able to boxseat from barrier 5.  Other hopes to Friendly Dragon (2), Hopfgarten (4) and Flamboyer (3).

***With the scratching of Flamboyer, I'll promote Octane Flyer (1) to the other hopes***

Race 4

Stradon (3) resumes here and looks to have a class edge over this field.  He's never won 1st up but he has run 3rd a couple of times.  He has had 2 trials and admittedly the last of these was a month ago, he did win it by 5 lengths.  Looking through his prior form he has competed strongly with the likes of Vintage Moss, Show Affection and Howmuchdoyouloveme.  Those horses would put the sword to this mob.  Stradon will be helped by a strong speed and I can see him coming over the top to win.  Other hopes to County Commands (10), Love Rocks (8) and Lisa Fashionista (6).

Race 5

This looks like a real danger race to me.  Better Than Ready (1) has the class over these but also has to carry 60.5kg.  Over 1000m 1st up could the likes of Rocket To Glory (5) be too nippy?  It's quite the conundrum!  Then again I could be putting way too much thought into it.  When it's all said and done, Better Than Ready (1) is a superior horse and that needs to be respected.  With a decent speed set up front he'll be able to storm home.  We just won't want him settling too far back as Rocket To Glory is a real chance of skipping away and not being caught.  BTR races well 1st up and loves this track and distance.  If he's $2 or more I'll be getting on.  To cover myself I'll be taking a quinella with Rocket To Glory (4).

Race 6

Gee if Tail And All (4) doesn't win today then it's time for it to give the game away.  This guy has been around the mark in his last 3 starts and gets a lot of favours here.  He will race with just 52kg after the claim for apprentice Holt. That's a big advantage over Arctic who narrowly beat TAA last start.  He loves this track with 7 quinellas from 10 starts.  Unfortunately only 1 of those was a win.  He'll get a great run from the nice draw and should be hard to hold out in the straight.  Other hopes to Arctic (10), Hush Power (7) and Faint Praise (9).

Race 7

Congo (3) has been a gem for us lately, winning his past 2 starts.  I'm sticking solid and backing him in for the hattrick.  I really think the penny has dropped for this bloke and he's fulfilling his potential.  He's drawn nicely in barrier 6 and Ryan Wiggins will be able to get him into the lead or box seat with relative ease.  He's proved very hard to catch in his past 2 and I don't think the extra 1kg will stop that happening again.  Other hopes to Venture On (1), Skating Away (11) and Vacallo (3).

***Disappointed that Congo has been scratched but obviously we don't want to be backing him if he's not right.  Venture On (1) becomes the top pick with Emerald Duke (13) coming in as another hope***

Race 8

Theft (5) has been in the placings all 4 runs back from a spell.  In the last 3 he's gone down by the narrowest of margins.  He has a good record at this track and distance and always puts himself in a race.  He's drawn out a bit but should have the necessary speed to cross and lead.  He's shown that he can settle in for the fight which he'll need to do here.  He put in some nice work this week and looks ready to roll.  Gets 1.5kg relief for the claiming Tegan Harrison. Lift Tegs!  Other hopes to De Dozen Stars (3), Essington (6) and Outstandingly (7).

Best Bets

Race 4 - Stradon (3)

Race 6 - Tail And All (4)

Flemington

Race 1 - Pass

Race 2 - Electric Fusion (8)

Race 3 - Sharalam (10)

Race 4 - Barbed (1)

Race 5 - Lake Sententia (4)

Race 6 - Lucky Nine (1)

Race 7 - Toydini (4)

Race 8 - Let's Make A Deal (5)

Race 9 - Limes (7)