28/01/12 - Sandown and Canterbury Selections

Sandown

Race 1 - I'll go with the top weight Volando in the opening event.  Looked good running 0.2 of a length 2nd to Flyingconi last start.  In fact, it ran the fastest last 400m of the day in that run.  Should be able to unleash a strong finish to run over the top of these.  Placed 5 times out of 10 runs over the distance. 

Race 2 - Apres looks well poised to turn it's recent run of 2nds into a win here.  Has run 2nd to Power O'Raylee and Royal Mail which is very good form for this.  Should be able to camp behind the leaders and get a delightful run.  Other hopes to Placement, Heza Born Lucky and Tanah Lot.

Race 3 - Although the overall record of Procida isn't flash, I think she's ready to do something here.  She has good results earlier in her career against good quality horses.  Last start she flew home (fastest closing splits) and she should get conditions to enable that to happen here.  The Boss man in the saddle is a plus on 54kg.  Other hopes to Seduced, Spirit Song and Seeking Chi.

***With the scratching of Seduced, I'll promote Mayneda Strategy to the other hopes***


Race 4 - The Good Wife looks like a horse that could turn into a nice type.  Is a half to Divine Madonna who was 1 of the Silk's favourites. Ran 3.5 lengths to Soft Sand on debut but more notable was it's win earlier this month.  It will get back but I'm confident that it will be strong at the finish.  Other hopes to Segue, Amour Cache and Taylor's Command.

Race 5 - This looks to be an open race.  I've gone with Giresun.  Most of these, Giresun included, are lumping big weights.  I'm not convinced the majority of them can carry weight.  Giresun won 2 starts back with 58.5kg in a fairly impressive way.  Has big weight specialist jockey Steven Arnold on board which is a big plus.  Has an alright record over the trip.  Other hopes to Agrippa, Belgietto and Over Quota.    


Race 6 - Lord Of Arms looks very well placed here.  Has a tremendous 2nd up record, has won 3 from 5 over this distance and ran well 1st up.  The horse has a great relationship with the jockey and I can see it being right in the finish.  Other hopes to Under The Hat, Ben Zena and Valedictorian.

***Very disappointed that Lord Of Arms has been scratched. Thought it was an excellent chance. I'll promote Ben Zena to top spot and bring in Midnight Express to the other hopes***



Race 7 - If Henwood has improved from it's 1st up luckless 4th, it will be very hard to beat here. Got caught behind horses going backwards but still ran 2.1 lengths to Instalment.  Meets that horse 3.5kg better off.  Other hopes to Motorised, Work The Line and Instalment.


Race 8 - I'll go with Pago Rock in the last.  The horse has a tremendous record winning 5 out of it's 7 starts.  Unbeaten from it's 3 1st up attempts.  I was a little concerned that it may lead but it has won over 1600m so it should have enough stamina to be able to kick on.  Other hopes to Like An Eagle, Bondarchuk and Rorke's Drift.

***With the scratching of Bondarchuk, I'll promote Jughalation***


Canterbury


Race 1 - Small field, I won't be getting too involved if at all.  I'll put Nocturnelle on top despite the fact that she'll get back.  That's not ideal with the rail out 3 metres but the horse goes well on slow going and looks to be above average.  Next best is Double Ranga.  Think those 2 will be fighting it out.  


Race 2 - 2 year old race with limited form. Pass.


Race 3 - Tricky race I suggest so be careful.  I'll have a small wager on Said Com.  Won on debut on slow going by 2.3 lengths and looked good doing so.  Hughie Bowman was on top that day and he reacquaints himself with the horse here.  Other hopes to Soledad, Velrosso and Road To Summer.

***With the scratching of Velrosso, I'll promote Wild And Proud to the other hopes***



Race 4 - I like the look of La Remlap here.  Handles a rain affected track reasonably well but the key here is her record at the track.  She's won both her starts over this distance at this track.    Should be able to race handy and prove hard to catch.  Other hopes to Al's Magic Miss and Girls Go Racing.


Race 5 - Steps In Time is short but I can't see it getting beaten.  Was impressive in it's initial campaign. Most notably a 0.3 length 2nd to Red Tracer.  The Pumper should let this girl jump and run.  If that's the case, she'll be tough to run down.  Has raced great at her previous attempts at this track.  The rest are running for 2nd.  


Race 6 - Going with Luck San here.  Looked a decent horse when last in work.  Has a great record around this distance range.  Slight concern that it hasn't trialed before this start but comes from the astute Hawkes stable so I'd doubt it wouldn't be up for this.  Ran 5 lengths 2nd to Sincero in the slop.  Other hopes to Duke Of Cornwall, Youthful King and Radar.

***With the scratching of Luck San, I'll promote Duke Of Cornwall to top pick and bring in So Generous to the other hopes***



Race 7 - This looks a good race for Mangaroa Flyer.  Firstly this horse will lead or race on the speed.  That could be a huge advantage on this circuit on slow going.  Handles the wet well.  Looks to be hitting it's straps now after coming over from NZ.  Will be rock hard fit 3rd up.  Other hopes to Tigress Lily, Bielski and Gangster's Choice.

***With the scratching of Gangster's Choice, I'll promote Umatain to the other hopes***


Race 8 - This looks a dangerous race to finish up.  I'm putting Bereft on top but with little confidence.  The horse handles a wet track but goes well on a dead track if it dries out.  I'm worried about it running this distance out strongly but it did come 2nd in it's only attempt at it.  Ran on well last start which is a good sign.  Other hopes to Sienna Red, Pepin Hoaks and Rockin' Rocket.  I'd be going wide in your quaddies.


Best Bets 


Sandown - Race 2 Number 7 Apres
               Race 3 Number 7 Procida
               Race 6 Number 11 Lord Of Arms (scratched)
               Race 7 Number 9 Henwood


Canterbury - Race 4 Number 3 La Remlap
                  Race 5 Number 5 Steps In Time
                  Race 7 Number 2 Mangaroa Flyer

14/01/12 - Flemington, Rosehill and Gold Coast

Flemington

Race 1 - 2 year olds with no starts. No thanks.

Race 2 - I'm quite wary of this race and won't be getting too involved.  I have gone with Instalment.  Went close to having a 2 from 2 strike rate last start.  2 horses that finished ahead of it in that race ran franked that form by running well last Saturday.  Being an Elvstroem, the 1400m shouldn't be a problem.  Other hopes to Roses In The Glen, Sabres and Canonized.

Race 3 - I see a number of horses battling for the lead here over the 1000m.  For that reason, I'm going with Johannapine.  She should be able to sit back while the others go for glory early.  Has won both it's starts and by a whopping 8 lengths 1st up.  Could be a very good horse.  Other hopes to Ravenous Lass, Del Palio and Lone Star.

***Del Palio and Lone Star both scratched.  None are worthy of promoting to other hopes. Johannapine and Ravenous Lass could be a good quinella***

 

Race 4 - This is a very open race.  I'll have a small interest bet on Prussian Officer.  This fellow is usually fairly competitive and did run well last start.  However he won't be suited if they plod along so be careful.  

***Prussian Officer has been scratched.  Wasn't overly keen on the race to start with but Shezaten is now the top pick***

Race 5 - Quite keen on the chances of Platamone Castle.  The horse is flying at the moment, winning it's past 2.  Loves a dead track and should be able to camp just behind the leaders.  Will get a gun run and with just 54kg, will be hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Bolton, Giresun and Belgietto.

Race 6 - Going with Pied A Terre here.  I really liked how it ran 1st up.  Seemed to be in total control and did just enough to win.  Has an outside gate but that shouldn't be a problem and hopefully will lead to a better price.  Likes the sting out of the track.  Other hopes to There's Only One, Mr Make Believe and By The Way.

Race 7 - Empress Cleo should be in the finish here.  Has been racing in great form this campaign, winning 2 and placing the other.  Should be able to sit behind the speed and come home well.  Other hopes to Graskop, Leoncita and Gold Rust.

Race 8 - I'm going to take a punt on Sean Baile Mor in the last.  The horse hasn't raced 54 days which is a concern over 2000m.  However it has raced well fresh in the past over shorter distances.  Goes super on a dead track.  I'm placing a fair bit of faith in the fact that the trainer knows what he is doing and that the horse is of a better standard than most of these.  Other hopes to Power O'Raylee, Chaparral Lass and Manilla Jewel.

***Manilla Jewel has been scratched.  I'll promote Kasane to the other hopes***
 

Rosehill

Race 1 - Small field of 2 year olds. Pass

Race 2 - I won't be getting too involved here.  Looks to me like any number of these could win.  I'll have a small bet on Republic Lad.  He's racing in good form and should be running on at the end.  Just think he has a few things in his favour over the others.  Other hopes to Permit, Double Crescent and Peck.

Race 3 - If Chivvy is on song, she should go close to winning this.  Her last start 0.3 length 3rd has been franked with the 2 that beat her running well last weekend.  My concern is that Pink Power will get away with murder in front and they won't be able to run her down.  Other hopes to Kuhreihen, Pink Power and Tabasco Kitten.

Race 4 - I'll go with The Owl here.  Rises 5kg on his 2 length win over this distance last start but looks a nice type.  Likes this distance and should get a nice run just behind the leaders.  Is fairly short but is probably deserving of the early quote.  Other hopes to Upbeat, Daymo and Senta D'Amor.

Race 5 - Alma's Fury looks to be right in this.  Has a considerable weight advantage over most of these with only 54kg.  Has won his 2 races since coming back from a spell.  Will get a lovely run.  Other hopes to New Day Rising, Tromso and Parthian.

***Tromso has been scratched.  I won't be promoting anything to the other hopes***

Race 6 - This is a tricky race.  I get the feeling that any number of these could pull something out of the hat.  Having said that, I'm going with Duke Of Cornwall.  The Duke did the right thing by me last start and he should look right in this for a long way.  He should be able to lead unchallenged.  His overall form is a hell of a lot better than his rivals.  Other hopes to Bello, Sikka and Key West.

Race 7 - Going with Oakfield Comet here.  The horse has been racing in good form lately and always seems to be in the finish.  I liked the way it was able to settle towards the back last time and run on.  Other hopes to Cabernet, Upon This Rock and Lil and Grace.

Race 8 - Maules Creek looks hard to beat in the last.  Looked good running 3rd in it's 1st run after a long spell.  Should be further improved for this and to be honest, there doesn't look much opposition.  Well get a great run from the 5 alley.  The others are running for 2nd.  

Gold Coast 

Race 1 - Tough way to get things off with a big field of maidens.  Not your usual maiden race with some decent horses involved.  I've looked for a bit of value here and have spotted Dreamy Dazzler at around the $21 mark.  Has come in from $41.  Perhaps it will need the run but it gets the inside gate here and I think it will take advantage of that position itself nicely.  Last campaign it ran close to Biggles and Stop Crying.  Some of the other hopes are Push Forward, Year Of The Tiger and Number One Gun.  Put in Coup Rayvan if it gets a start.  

Race 2 - Stratford looks tough to beat here.  Has a lot in his favour.  Has a great 1st up record, won at this track and distance and down in the weights.  I think it's just a classier animal than the rest.  Other hopes to State Of Wealth, Griffon and My Elixa.

Race 3 - These Country Cups are usually a tough ask and this is no different.  I've gone with Feuer Drache because of it's consistency.  Unlike most of these, it is more often than not in the finish.  It's last start 2nd where it motored late looks good form for this.  Other hopes to Slick Image, Cannyclimb and Kiss Me Deadly.  If Miss Bradbury gets a start I'd throw that into multiples also.

Race 4 - Going with Nuptse in this.  Sticking with her after she got the cash last start for The Silk.  As is the case with 1000m, the speed should be on thanks to the likes of Schiffer, Gold Trail and Seek And Find.  This will enable Nuptse to run on as it did last start.  Loves this distance and a good track.  Will go well. Other hopes to Seek And Find, Gold Trail and Paprika.

Race 5 - I backed Driefontein last start when it won and I won't be getting off now.  Will get a great run from an inside draw.  Yes, she had things go her way but I think this is a quality animal and will be further improved.  Gai Waterhouse was super confident earlier this week when she said it would win.  Other hopes to Sizzling, Amorino and Alezan Thunder.

Race 6 - The speed should be on here so I've looked for something with a powerful finish.  I found it hard to separate Punch On and Lucky Morna.  However the way Punch On raced 3 wide last start and still had enough guts to win, impressed me.  Other hopes to Lucky Morna, Safusa and Biggles.

Race 7 - I like Spirit Of Boom here.  I was really impressed with the way he exploded in the straight last start at this track to win well.  Has 3 wins from 7 at the track.  Other hopes to Startsmeup, Catapulted and My Destiny.

Race 8 - Emvoss looks to have a lot in his favour here.  Firstly, he just loves the track.  He has 4 wins and 2nd from 6 starts here.  Secondly, he'll carry 5kg less than Kontiki Park after running just 0.3 lengths behind him.  He'll get a gun run from the peg.  Yes, there's a lot to like!  Other hopes to From London, Kontiki Park and Hidden Kisses.

Race 9 - Miss Marx is a model of consistency, only being out of the placings once in 9 starts.  Unlike a lot of these, I'm confident she can be strong at the end of 1300m.  Will be positioned handy by the Pumper from gate 4.  Other hopes to Demanding Miss, Capital Commander and Miss Barwang.

Best Bets

Flemington - Race 5 Number 8 Platamone Castle

                  Race 6 Number 12 Pied A Terre

Rosehill - Race 5 Number 8 Alma's Fury

             Race 8 Number 3 Maules Creek

Gold Coast - Race 2 Number 10 Stratford

                  Race 8 Number 10 Emvoss

  

07/01/12 - Caulfield, Warwick Farm and Gold Coast

Caulfield

Race 1 - 2 year old race with no form.  No thanks.

Race 2 - I won't be getting too involved in this race, if at all.  I have a slight leaning towards Taylor's Command.  It's 2 runs back from a spell have been quite good, running 2nd by 0.3 lengths in both.  Gets 3kg relief with K.Mallyon on top.  Should be able to dictate terms in front. Other hopes to Eleve, Gig and Total Attraction.

Race 3 - Going with Conquering Journey here.  Has been good since returning from a spell and starts to get out to a suitable distance here.  Past form looks too good for the rest of these.  The claim for Stackhouse is a bonus, dropping down to 55kg.  Other hopes to Agrippa, Mayneda Strategy and Cross Street.

Race 4 - I think Song Of The Bell could run a race here.  Although she has only won once from 8 starts, she has raced some quality opposition and finished reasonably close to them.  Her run last start where she finished 1.3 lengths to Soft Sand (super horse) should hold her in good stead for this.  I'm thinking she'll lob just behind the speed and get a great run.  Other hopes to Rescue Mission, Dontmentionthewar and Mister Milton.

Race 5 - First Command has to carry 5kg more than his rivals here but he's a quality horse when right and has shown an ability to carry big weights.  His 1st up record is great, winning 3 from 6 with a 2nd for good measure.  He loves this track and distance.  Other hopes to Cat's Pyjamas, Stirling Grove and Cascabel.

Race 6 - The outside draw is a concern with Ben Zena but I think he's in good enough form to overcome that.  His 2 runs back from a spell have been good and should prime him for this.  Likes this track and has a great record for this jockey.  Other hopes to Josimar, Cellarmaster and Nice And Neat.

Race 7 - Going with Princess Narine in an open race.  Has a perfect 3 from 3 1st up record.  Chances will increase if the track is rated good.  Just loves a good track.  Has a nice record over this distance.  Other hopes to Show Up, Avionics and Miss Matari.


Race 8 - This looks are very winnable race for The Big Steel.  Should be able to dictate terms in front and be hard to catch.  Has been racing well in recent races, losing last start on protest.  Other hopes to Token Of Honour, Apres and Port Vell.


Warwick Farm


Race 1 - Limited form.  Pass.


Race 2 - Not a fan of this race at all.  Pass.


Race 3 - We're up to race 3 and I'm still not excited about this meeting.  I'll be staying out of this race for the reason that I can see a blow out.  Horses like The Paymaster and Double Crescent could get to a handy lead and not be run down at big odds.  


Race 4 - Tiger Tees should get things to suit here.  On a leader biased track, he should be able to  lead or sit on the back of O'Crikey.  I wouldn't be taking a ridiculous price here as he has to carry 59kg and there were a few nervous moments last start when it was nearly run down.  Still it's hard to ignore winning form.  Other hopes to Dystopia, Sikka and Youthful Jack.

***With the scratching of Sikka, I'll promote O'Crikey to the other hopes***



Race 5 - I'm finding this meeting totally uninspiring.  I've gone with the controversial Bag Of Nickels.  It will only be in a small way however.  Has a poor draw but has shown a strong finish in it's young career.  Should be fitter and better for it's 1st up win.  Other hopes to Dayita, Oh My Papa and Misshiraz.

***With the scratching of Bag of Nickels, I'll promote Dayita to top pick and promote More Than Acracker to the other hopes***
 

Race 6 - I'm going with Rolling Pin here.  The horse goes well for Bowman and has been racing in good form.  Should be able to race on the speed and kick on like it did last start to win.  Other hopes to Irish Jig, Riding To Win and Olinoor.

Race 7 - The speed should be solid here with a number of horses that like to get to the front.  I'm going with Mac Chois.  Should be able to just sit behind the speed and get a great run.  Recently ran 2nd in a trial to Rain Affair who flew 1st up.  Other hopes to La Remlap, Codigo and Al's Magic Miss.

Race 8 - Hidden Gem will do me in the last.  The horse goes well fresh and over this distance.  Should be able to be handy entering the straight and with it's distance background, should be hard to hold out in the straight.  Other hopes to Bello, Skateboard and Quadrant.

Gold Coast 

Race 1 - Lady Colours looks the one to beat here.  Other hopes to Charge A Fortune, Little Critter and Doubtfilly.  I won't be getting too involved in this.

Race 2 - Mr Light Blue should be too good for these.  Looked to be going gangbusters last start before the race was called off.  Other hopes to Mukaddamah Son, Red God and Eureka Jack.

Race 3 - I'm a Skating On Ice fan but I think she's up against it here.  Has to contend with an outside draw and a poor record over the distance.  I'm prepared to take her on and back The Reveller.  This young bloke has looked impressive in past races and draws nicely here.  Trained by the inform Matt Dunn.  You know what that means?  Get on!  Other hopes to Skating On Ice, Achievements and Catashee.

Race 4 - I'm going with Geblitzt here.  Has had a freshen up and appreciates that.  Has a good record at the track and distance.  Should be enough speed on for him to unwind in the straight.  Other hopes to Bingo Rose, Lightfeet Lady and Rhapsodic.

Race 5 - This race looks custom built for Rocker.  If the wraps on this horse are fair dinkum then she should be giving these a touch up.  Other hopes to Gunner Knox, The Ringmaster and My Elixa.

Race 6 - I'm going with a horse having just his 3rd start in Aldini.  Looked impressive winning by 4.5 lengths at this track before going for a spell.  Will get back from the gate but that shouldn't pose a problem given that there should be a reasonable speed on up front.  Other hopes to Pear Tart, Divine City and Skater Dude.

Race 7 - As long as Meat Loaf doesn't sing before the Bat Out Of Hell, we should see a good race.   Where do you go here?  There's just so much speed.  I'm going with Trusted Partner.  Has an impressive overall record and flies 1st up.  Should get a great run from the 4.  Other hopes to Seek And Find, Inventory and Mondean.  

Race 8 - If you're alive in the quaddie heading into the last, good luck!  I'm sticking with Grey Assignment.  It has been racing in good touch lately went oh so close to getting the biscuits last start.  Has a great record at this track and distance.  Other hopes to Gold Shears, Izacat and Bawaardi.

Best Bets

Caulfield - Race 4 Number 8 Song Of The Bell

              Race 5 Number 1 First Command

              Race 6 Number 8 Ben Zena

              Race 8 Number 2 The Big Steel

Warwick Farm - Race 6 Number 2 Rolling Pin

                      Race 7 Number 5 Mac Chois

Gold Coast - Race 2 Number 7 Mr Light Blue

                  Race 5 Number 7 Rocker