28/04/12 - Randwick, Caulfield and Eagle Farm

Randwick

Race 1 - I won't be getting too involved in the opener.  I'm going with Hallowell Belle.  I think it's the best horse in the race but 3 races in 14 days concerns me.  However Gai wouldn't run the horse if it wasn't up to it so I'll trust her judgement.  Goes well over this distance and on a dead track.  Other hopes to Ever The Same, Angel Of Mercy and Bound To Blush.

Race 2 - This looks a very even race for mine.  Iggi Pop finished off the 2000m in the Tulloch very well for 4th.  That was despite not getting clear until the 200m mark.  Will race in a much handier position from the good gate.  I think this is a horse on the way up.  Other hopes to Fat Al, Rekindled Alliance and Ambidexter.

Race 3 - Given what Pierro has shown to date, it's very hard to go past this fellow.  He won the Sires over 1400m with authority so the 1600m shouldn't pose a problem.  Hardest to beat, Flying Snitzel.

Race 4 - Skyerush came oh so close to winning last week and I think she can go 1 better here.  She has a great record over this distance and at this track.  Her record on a quick back up is excellent, winning 3 and placing in 3 others from 7 attempts.  Drops considerably in weight.  She'll be able to race in a very handy position.  Other hopes to Miss Keepsake, Foxstar and Shannara.

Race 5 - Atlantic Jewel to be too strong again. 

Race 6 - Niwot looks nicely placed here.  Firstly and importantly this guy has won over 3200m.  His form leading into this is great.  He has run within a few lengths of Manighar who has been flying in his last couple of races.  Goes well on a dead track and drops 3.5kg.  Will get a great run.  Other hopes to Permit, Drunke Sailor and Older Than Time.

Race 7 - This is going to be a great race.  I'm going with Manighar.  This horse has been in incredible form this campaign.  He just keeps winning and showing tremendous heart.  He's undefeated over 2000m and loves a dead track.  Will get a nice run.  Other hopes to More Joyous, Americain and Jimmy Choux.


Race 8 - I'm going with Nobby Snip in the last.  He's been racing really well lately.  He's undefeated over this distance and goes well on a dead surface.  Nash should be able to give him a delightful run.  Other hopes to Pinwheel, Tiger Tees and Neeson.


Caulfield


Race 1 - Placement gets in here with 51kg after the claim.  That is a considerable advantage over her rivals.  She has been racing in great form of late, winning last week.  Goes well over this distance and at this track.  Can handle softish tracks.  Other hopes to Folding Gear and Turnitup.


Race 2 - Again we're with the in form apprentice here in Katelyn Mallyon and her mount Galbraith.  This horse goes really well over this distance and at this track.  Can handle a track with the sting out also.  2nd up record is only fair but should get a great run on the speed.  Other hopes to General Truce and Tramuntana.


Race 3 - Zamorar looks to get all the favours here.  Gets an inside alley where it can dictate terms.  Has a perfect record over this distance and goes well on soft going.  Likes to race on the fresh side which he will be here.  Other hopes to Tres Vite, Counter Sign and Vatican. 


Race 4 - Not enough information for me to have a bet here. 


Race 5 - Going with Classic Elle here.  Hasn't had any success at this track in her 2 attempts.  However she's been there abouts up to 1600m and can handle the sting out of the ground.  Her recent efforts have been good.  Should be getting a nice run here.  Other hopes to Tai Tai Tess, Lucky Penny and Her Diamond Rock.


Race 6 - Bereft looks well placed here.  This is a very consistent horse with a good record over this distance (7 starts for 2 wins and 3 2nds).  Handles the sting out of the ground.  Should be well placed in the run.  Other hopes to Zabisco, Lethal Arrow and Eight Cards.


Race 7 - Epingle has been running in stronger classes than what her opponent's have been.  She's been racing in good form and goes really well on a dead track.  Should be positioned nicely in the run.  Just think she has a lot more to offer than these.  Other hopes to Queen's Fashion, Assertion and My Girl Tess.

***With the scratching of Epingle, I'll promote Assertion to top pick and bring in Miss Phromily to the other hopes***


Race 8 - La Praline will race here with next to no weight after the 3kg claim.  This horse has a great record over the track and distance.  Hasn't raced on a wet track but has a tremendous dead track record and is an Anabaa so I doubt a wet track would be too bad for it.  Will be able to take a position either in front or handy.  Other hopes to Princess Narine, Neriani and Bonnie Mac.


Eagle Farm (Meeting Abandoned)


Race 1 - Pass. Not much wet track form here and the horses that can handle it are in rubbish form.


Race 2 - I'll have a small wager on Utilism here.  Has a heavy track win to it's credit and ran on strongly last start for 2nd.  


Race 3 - Going with Horoscopes in this.  Has a good overall record and has won it's only start over this distance at this track.  Can handle a wet track and gets 3kg weight relief for the apprentice.  Will be racing relatively handy and hopefully will be able to grind it's way to a win.  Other hopes to Garozzo, Rock Home Late and One Lickety Split.


Race 4 - Go The Buff! Buffering but not worth a bet in a small field.


Race 5 - Rosagaze was ordinary 1st up but we can see that's the norm with her.  2nd up is her go where she has a perfect record.  Has a win and a 2nd from 2 slow track starts.  The win was by 11 lengths in a maiden at the Gold Coast but still that's impressive.  This horse likes this track and distance.  Other hopes to Tafeer, Boys On Tour and Moneysaver.


Race 6 - Za Magic is down in weight from it's recent few runs.  It goes well on a wet track and I think it could take the race away from the others here by racing from in front.  Has never been out of a place over this distance.  Other hopes to Shamardashing, Viking Hero and Ironstein.


Race 7 - On a wet track, I'm with Pretty Pins.  She can get through the going just fine having won 2 from 2 on heavy and another on slow.  Has a good record at this track and over this distance.  She'll be coming home the best.  Other hopes to Brambles, Quintessential and Vacallo.


Race 8 - Rocker will do me in the last.  Won on a slow track last start over this distance.  Has a good 2nd up record and it's overall record is excellent.  Other hopes to Top Drop, My Quilter and Aquatorial.


  

25/04/12 - Flemington and Randwick

Flemington

Race 1 - Number 3 Unpretentious

Race 2 - Number 9 Maluti

Race 3 - Number 11 Somaly Miss
Race 4 - Number 2 Almodovar
Race 5 - Number 5 Fawkner
Race 6 - Number 1 Backbone
Race 7 - Number 7 Hotham Heights
Race 8 - Number 5 Noble Park

Randwick


Race 1 - Number 6 Empress Elect
Race 2 - Number 4 Force One
Race 3 - Number 7 Eliza Blues
Race 4 - Number 12 Rock Of Fortune
Race 5 - Number 1 Under The Sun
Race 6 - Number 6 Choice Words
Race 7 - Number 8 Cannery Row
Race 8 - Number 13 Bledisloe

21/04/12 - Randwick, Caulfield and Eagle Farm

Randwick

Race 1 - Not a race I'm keen on.  The form is limited here with none of these 2 year olds having run 1600m and most not having any wet track form.  If I was to have a bet I'd be working around Dear Demi, Rowie, Proverb and Great Dansaar. 

Race 2 - If this was a dry track, I'd without hesitation put Driefontein on top. However it's going to be a bog, 60.5kg and a short price I'm going to take it on.  I'll have a sneaky e/w bet on Agueda.  It's 1 and only win came on slow going and it also won a trial in the wet.  3 starts back it ran 0.2 length to Driefontein.  Other hopes to Driefontein, Meidung and Single Style.

Race 3 - I'm going with Lightinthenite here.  Has won both it's 1st up runs in the past.  It has a great overall record winning 4 from 8.  Has also won a 1300m race on slow going.  Other hopes to Riva De Lago, Delzero and Skyerush.

Race 4 - I'm backing Landing to continue his unbeaten run here.  Won comprehensively over this trip last start.  A wet track shouldn't bother him as he's a More Than Ready and they handle it well.  Gai/Nash in form combo.  Other hopes to Sacred Pins, Charm's Honour and Deceiver.

Race 5 - This is a very weak race.  I've looked for a reason to go against Streama but I can't find one.  Sure she hasn't won beyond 1600m.  However she did take ground off Mosheen over 2000m last start which is no mean feat.  Goes exceptionally well on a wet surface.  Has the class edge. 

Race 6 - I'm with the up and coming stayer in Western Symbol here.  Has put together an impressive record winning 5 from 13 and only being out of the placings in 2 of those.  Stepped up to the mark last start and won a Group 3 over this distance.  Is undefeated on slow going and placed on heavy.  Will be in a prominent position when the whips are cracking.  Other hopes to Hawk Island, Dance With Her and Vintedge.


Race 7 - I'm really looking forward to this year's Doncaster.  There's a number of winning hopes but the one I'm supporting is Sincero.  Firstly he gets in with 55kg which is a lot less than he has carried in recent outings.  He has a great overall record winning 11 from 18 and 2 from 3 at this distance.  Although against inferior opposition he relished a heavy ground the only time he raced on it.  Looks primed for this after a fast finishing 5th in the George Ryder.  Other hopes to Secret Admirer, More Joyous and Rangirangdoo.  


Race 8 - I'm sticking with my old mate Temple Of Boom.  This horse just loves the wet. 3 wins and 3 seconds from 7 on slow and has won both his cracks at heavy going.  Has a good record over this trip.  I see a very solid pace in front here which will suit this bloke when he unleashes a powerful finish.  Other hopes to Nobby Snip, Bel Sprinter and Ladys Angel.


Race 9 - I'm not overly keen on this race. It's a sub-standard sort of an affair.  Having said that, I'm going with Next The Universe.  It's a bit of a non-winner having only won 2 from 21 but it's placed in 12 others.  Goes ok in the wet, placing 4 from 5.  Has raced well in it's previous 2 for 2nd.  Other hopes to Miss Marx, Dee'N'Gee and Startreusse.  


Caulfield


Race 1 - No form, no punt on these 2 year olds.


Race 2 - This is another race I'm not too fussed on.  There doesn't seem to be a great deal of speed here.  This concerns me with my selection Sensational Report.  This horse gets back in it's races and I'm worried that it might not be able to unleash it's strong finish.  Having said that, it's form is hard to ignore.  It's been flying lately.  Loves a dead track and goes well over this distance.  Other hopes to Star Of Giselle, Model To Nite and Ky's The Limit.


Race 3 - I think Spartini can continue her winning ways here.  This horse is flying at the moment and has won 7 from 12.  She just loves this distance, winning 6 from 7.  A dead surface will be ideal.  If there was rain, I'd be jumping on my clear 2nd pick Delabombell.  Other hopes to Rue Maple and Inablitz.


Race 4 - Vain Attraction looks the one here.  Won well 1st up beating Tres Vite who then when on to win impressively.  There should be a fair speed here which suit this horse coming from the back.  3kg's off for the apprenctice is a bonus.  Other hopes to Classy Chloe, Chinzia and Reigning Lass.


Race 5 - Sir Fernando is a horse in form and that's the way I'm going here.  This guy always puts himself into a race and will prominent in running.  Overall record is 3 wins and 3 2nds from 7 starts.  Has the Boss man in the saddle.  Other hopes to Amah Rock, Cash Bound and Livigno.


Race 6 - I'm going with Pago Rock in this competitive race.  This has won it's only start at this track, has a great record over this trip and is perfect on a dead track.  He'll be in the 1st few horses in running and will prove hard to run down.  Other hopes to Under The Eiffel, Testa My Patience and Freereturn.  If Sheila's Star races here and not Adelaide, it goes in.


Race 7 - Red Typhoon should get conditions similar to what it got in it's last start win over 1700m.  There should be adequate pace for this filly to finish in a hurry.  Has won previously over 2000m so this journey won't be a problem.  Other hopes to Tower Of Lonhro, Bells Of Troy and Zabeelionaire.

***With the scratching of Bells Of Troy, I'll promote Scelto to the other hopes***


Race 8 - I'm going with Curtana in the last.  This horse loves this track winning 4 from 7.  Has been racing in much harder races than this and with 54kg after the claim, looks right in this.  Should be suited by a fair speed.  Goes well on dead going.  Other hopes to Rescue Mission, Stratcombe and Rocking Force.


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - I'm not keen to get involved here. 


Race 2 - I have to stick with our old mate Dodging Eddie.  He really impressed last start when finishing off strongly to win over 2112m.  I can't see many of these being able to match him in the run to the line.  Other hopes to Mukaddamah Son, Contract Caterer and Murrumba Downs.


Race 3 - Solzhenitsyn has drawn the car park here in 19.  However he gets back in his races so this shouldn't be a problem.  It's just too hard to ignore his stats over this distance.  He's won 3 from 5 over 1400m and is 1 from 1 at the track.  His 1st up run was super.  Vance gets 3kg's off.  Other hopes to Oak Street, Strumming and Absent Friends.


Race 4 - There's a fair bit of speed in this race.  For that reason I'm going with Easy Running.  It always finishes like a freight train.  From the nice draw I can see it getting in behind the leaders and pouncing in the straight. Has a good 1st up record and can handle all surfaces.  Other hopes to Saraji, Leealan and Crystal Doll.


Race 5 - I like the look of Carry Me Bluey in this.  This horse really came on last campaign and I'm keen to see how it returns.  Has a great 1st up record winning 2 from 4 and placing in another.  Goes well over this distance and likes this track.  A lot to like.  Other hopes to Metallurgical, Durham Town and Mr Armstrong.

***With the scratching of Durham Town, I'll promote Fillydelphia to the other hopes***


Race 6 - Cariad is in sensational form at the moment.  Her last start win where she absolutely flew home was impressive.  It's hard to ignore a run like that.  Other hopes to Risk Aversion, Funtantes and St Germaine.


Race 7 - I'll be sticking with Hidden Jewel here.  Raced well 1st up and then was a bit flat 2nd up but still ran ok.  She'll be primed for this and it's a very good race for her.  She's got a great record at this track, never being out of the placings.  I just think she'll have too much for these.  Other hopes to Urban Rocker, Purfectress and Flying Jet.

***With the scratching of Purfectress, I'll promote Crazy Mamma to the other hopes***


Race 8 - I'm putting Ginga Dude on top here.  This guy competed well in group races last spring and resumes here.  His 1st up record is fair but it's his record over this trip that stands out.  He's won 5 from 12 and placed in 2 others.  Has won 2 trials leading into this so he should be ready to run a race 1st up.  Other hopes to Triple Honour, Scenic Shot and Shuffle The Cash.


Best Bets 


Randwick - No clear standouts. 


Caulfield - Race 4 Number 2 Vain Attraction
              Race 6 Number 6 Pago Rock


Eagle Farm - Race 2 Number 9 Dodging Eddie
                  Race 3 Number 3 Solzhenitsyn
                  Race 7 Number 6 Hidden Jewel        

18/04/12 - Eagle Farm

A few I'm interested in today at Eagle Farm if the track's rated slow - heavy:

Race 1 Number 9 Stolen Kisses
Race 2 Number 1 Only The Strong
Race 3 Number 5 Lucky Sound
Race 5 Number 4 Kevejon e/w
Race 6 Number 6 Pear Tart
Race 8 Number 11 Epic Terra e/w

14/04/12 - Randwick, Flemington and Doomben

Randwick

Race 1 - Ichihara looks the one to beat here.  Is undefeated in her 3 starts and has some good form around her.  She has beaten subsequent Group 3 winner Flying Snitzel and Doubtfilly who ran a bottler for 4th in the Golden Slipper.  Should be able to find the front from the good gate and prove hard to catch.  Agueda hardest to beat.

Race 2 - Fat Al could very well win this but I think he's way too short at $2.10.  I'll be supporting Now You Know.  This horse is undefeated in it's 2 starts over this trip and loves a good track.  Drops 3kg on it's past 2 races.  Williams has a good record when riding this horse.  Excellent value currently around the $8 mark.  Other hopes to Fat Al, Brambles and Galah.

Race 3 - This race is hardly fit for it's Group 3 status.  So many horses here that struggle to win mid week and for that reason I'll be giving this race a miss.

Race 4 - I don't think they'll be able to get near Rain Affair during the run which will prove too much to overcome.  He could quite possibly open up a 3 to 4 length lead with relative ease and if that's the case, I can't see these running him down.  Other hopes to Foxwedge, Neeson and Hallowell Belle.

Race 5 - Although there's only 7 horses are engaged here, it should still be an interesting affair.  The Golden Slipper winner Pierro takes on the horse that missed the Slipper to focus on this in, All Too Hard.  I've been a big fan of ATH since the horse started racing.  I won't be taking the $1.60 on offer but I think he'll win.  He's just an absolute superstar and has the advantage of not being knocked about last week.  1400m is not a problem.  Hardest to beat Pierro and Raceway.  

Race 6 - We see the return of Atlantic Jewel here.  After an impressive 1st campaign where she won all 5 races, hopes are high that she has come back bigger and better.  All things being equal, she shouldn't face much opposition from these.  I won't be getting involved at the price on offer however.  I'll just be watching on in awe. 

Race 7 - The Derby should be a cracking race. I was with Laser Hawk in the Guineas but I'm jumping ship to the horse that ran 2nd to him, Ocean Park.  This horse showed an amazing finish after a sustained run well out from home and from wide out.  The extra distance should suit this fellow right down to the ground.  Other hopes to Silent Achiever, Laser Hawk and Sangster.

***Ocean Park has been scratched. Silent Achiever gets promoted to top pick and Polish Knight comes into the other hopes***

Race 8 - Permit got the biscuits for us last start and I can see him doubling up here.  He looked impressive unloading a flying finish last start over 2400m so the extra 200m should be no problems.  Drops a kg to 53kg and is a real beast on a good track.  Other hopes to Older Than Time, Once Were Wild and Anudjawun.

Race 9 - Competitive race to end the day.  I'm going with Raspberries.  The horse has had 2 runs back from a spell and looks to be going alright.  It has a good record over this distance, placing 5 out of 7.  Last campaign she won 3rd up in the Cameron (As picked by the Silk at good odds!) over a similar distance.  Other hopes to Speediness, Happy Trails and Absolutely.

Flemington

Race 1 - Limited information to make a decision on these 2 year olds. Pass.

Race 2 - This isn't a race that excites me by any means and I won't be getting involved.  It concerns me that if I was to have a bet, I'd be looking at Placement.  A horse that is a professional placegetter.  So no thanks.

Race 3 - Blue Ribbon looks good value here.  Currently around the $9 mark but has come in for some support.  It has a great record, winning 4 from 8.  Won her only start over this distance and really appreciates a dry track.  Has the peg so should be able to get a glorious run.  Has a big weight but has shown that it can win with big imposts before.  Other hopes to Sharnee Rose, Houston Benefactor and Destiny Blaze.

Race 4 - If Platelet didn't have 59kg, I'd be backing her.  However that big weight 1st up without a trial concerns me.  I've gone with Tres Vite.  Has looked quite good in it's 2 starts.  Last start she really finished off well to narrowly go down.  I think there could be a fair speed in front here and she'll be able to sit behind them and unleash a strong finish.  Other hopes to Platelet, Counter Sign and Vatican.


Race 5 - I'm going with Playwright here.  This horse loves this track and distance winning 2 and running 2nd in the other from 3 goes.  He has been racing in good form in his 3 starts since a break and should be cherry ripe to run over his preferred distance.  Other hopes to Chasse, Lucky Eighty Eight and Stole.


Race 6 - Mawingo has come in for some strong support, firming from $5 to $2.80.  This horse has won a Group 3 and contested 2 Group 1's in it's short career overseas.  The fact it's raced by the same interests as Lucas Cranach has to be respected.  Other hopes to Under The Hat, Mr O'Ceirin and Snow Cover.


Race 7 - Liveandletdie looks right in this race.  Has a good overall record but importantly has won 3 times from 5 attempts down the straight.  Looked good in Group 1 race last start, only going down to Hay List by 2.6 lengths.  Other hopes to Faster Son, Miss Bindi and Gran Sasso.


Race 8 - I'll go with Cosmic Causeway in the last.  Didn't do a great deal 1st up but it never does.  2nd up it has never been out of a place.  Races well over this distance and likes a firmer track.  Should be able to get into a nice position to really threaten this race at good odds.  Other hopes to Typeface, Zabisco and Shenzhou Steeds.  


Doomben


Race 1 - I don't like getting involved in these types of 2 year old races.  Having said that, I will have a small wager on Wolfsburg.  Only just hung on to win last start over this trip.  Should be fitter that effort and be hard to run down from the inside gate.  Other hopes to Dansal, Khaantantes and Top Rada.


Race 2 - I can't stand these 2000+ Brissy races and I'll be giving this a wide berth.  


Race 3 - Again not a race I'm overly keen on.  I'm putting Tafeer on top.  She goes really well at this track winning 4 from 11.  Unfortunately she's never won beyond 1350m.  That's a concern.  However I think she'll get an easy lead here and that could prove decisive.  Other hopes to Rock Home Late, Ausworld and Random Orbit.


Race 4 - More Bubbly looks the one here.  Her 1st start in QLD was an impressive 3 length maiden win at this track.  Then had absolutely no luck when ran into a wall when looking likely.  Go  4 and 5 starts back and this horse was mixing it up with Laser Hawk and Streama.  Surely she'll brain this mob.  Other hopes to Finn Class, Belle Verde and Lady Agulhas.


Race 5 - Rocker's incredibly short for my liking.  Could very well win but $2 isn't for me.  I'll get behind Mossriver.  That stats don't lie here.  The horse is super at this track and distance.  Also goes extremely 1st up.  Gets 3kg off for the apprentice which really makes this horse a winning chance.  Other hopes to Rocker, Thefifthhole and Another Takeover.


Race 6 - I have 3 horses here that clearly rate better than the others. These being Morning Captain, Pretty Pins and Hidden Jewel.  These are the 3 winning hopes but I'm finding it difficult to separate.  I've settled on Hidden Jewel.  She lost by half a length to Morning Captain 1st up and I think she can turn the tables with improved fitness 2nd up.  She beat Pretty Pins convincingly last time they met.  These look the obvious trifecta to me.


Race 7 - The speed will be on here with at least a handful liking to lead or race near the front.  Although well short of his pet distance, that could play right into Spirit Of Boom's hands.  He has a super finish and could come over the top of these.  Other hopes to Excellantes, Adebisi and Latin News.


Race 8 - I don't know who Oak Street annoyed because he simply can't draw a gate.  Gets barrier 20 here but I think he can get across to a reasonable position.  Has missed out in his latest 2 by the narrowest of margins.  Has won at his only crack at this distance.  3kg off for Vance helps.  Other hopes to Bribie, By Choice and Show Me An Ace.  This is a very open affair so realistically you could give most of these a chance.

***I had a feeling top pick Oak Street would be scratched.  Bribie is now top pick with King Of The Kongo going into the other hopes***


Best Bets 


Randwick - Race 1 Number 3 Ichihara
                Race 4 Number 1 Rain Affair
                Race 8 Number 5 Permit
(Could add All Too Hard and Atlantic Jewel as well but they're probably going to be too short)


Flemington - Race 6 Number 2 Mawingo
                 Race 7 Number 1 Liveandletdie


Doomben - Race 4 Number 9 More Bubbly
               Race 5 Number 2 Mossriver