Friday, 13 April 2012

14/04/12 - Randwick, Flemington and Doomben

Randwick

Race 1 - Ichihara looks the one to beat here.  Is undefeated in her 3 starts and has some good form around her.  She has beaten subsequent Group 3 winner Flying Snitzel and Doubtfilly who ran a bottler for 4th in the Golden Slipper.  Should be able to find the front from the good gate and prove hard to catch.  Agueda hardest to beat.

Race 2 - Fat Al could very well win this but I think he's way too short at $2.10.  I'll be supporting Now You Know.  This horse is undefeated in it's 2 starts over this trip and loves a good track.  Drops 3kg on it's past 2 races.  Williams has a good record when riding this horse.  Excellent value currently around the $8 mark.  Other hopes to Fat Al, Brambles and Galah.

Race 3 - This race is hardly fit for it's Group 3 status.  So many horses here that struggle to win mid week and for that reason I'll be giving this race a miss.

Race 4 - I don't think they'll be able to get near Rain Affair during the run which will prove too much to overcome.  He could quite possibly open up a 3 to 4 length lead with relative ease and if that's the case, I can't see these running him down.  Other hopes to Foxwedge, Neeson and Hallowell Belle.

Race 5 - Although there's only 7 horses are engaged here, it should still be an interesting affair.  The Golden Slipper winner Pierro takes on the horse that missed the Slipper to focus on this in, All Too Hard.  I've been a big fan of ATH since the horse started racing.  I won't be taking the $1.60 on offer but I think he'll win.  He's just an absolute superstar and has the advantage of not being knocked about last week.  1400m is not a problem.  Hardest to beat Pierro and Raceway.  

Race 6 - We see the return of Atlantic Jewel here.  After an impressive 1st campaign where she won all 5 races, hopes are high that she has come back bigger and better.  All things being equal, she shouldn't face much opposition from these.  I won't be getting involved at the price on offer however.  I'll just be watching on in awe. 

Race 7 - The Derby should be a cracking race. I was with Laser Hawk in the Guineas but I'm jumping ship to the horse that ran 2nd to him, Ocean Park.  This horse showed an amazing finish after a sustained run well out from home and from wide out.  The extra distance should suit this fellow right down to the ground.  Other hopes to Silent Achiever, Laser Hawk and Sangster.

***Ocean Park has been scratched. Silent Achiever gets promoted to top pick and Polish Knight comes into the other hopes***

Race 8 - Permit got the biscuits for us last start and I can see him doubling up here.  He looked impressive unloading a flying finish last start over 2400m so the extra 200m should be no problems.  Drops a kg to 53kg and is a real beast on a good track.  Other hopes to Older Than Time, Once Were Wild and Anudjawun.

Race 9 - Competitive race to end the day.  I'm going with Raspberries.  The horse has had 2 runs back from a spell and looks to be going alright.  It has a good record over this distance, placing 5 out of 7.  Last campaign she won 3rd up in the Cameron (As picked by the Silk at good odds!) over a similar distance.  Other hopes to Speediness, Happy Trails and Absolutely.

Flemington

Race 1 - Limited information to make a decision on these 2 year olds. Pass.

Race 2 - This isn't a race that excites me by any means and I won't be getting involved.  It concerns me that if I was to have a bet, I'd be looking at Placement.  A horse that is a professional placegetter.  So no thanks.

Race 3 - Blue Ribbon looks good value here.  Currently around the $9 mark but has come in for some support.  It has a great record, winning 4 from 8.  Won her only start over this distance and really appreciates a dry track.  Has the peg so should be able to get a glorious run.  Has a big weight but has shown that it can win with big imposts before.  Other hopes to Sharnee Rose, Houston Benefactor and Destiny Blaze.

Race 4 - If Platelet didn't have 59kg, I'd be backing her.  However that big weight 1st up without a trial concerns me.  I've gone with Tres Vite.  Has looked quite good in it's 2 starts.  Last start she really finished off well to narrowly go down.  I think there could be a fair speed in front here and she'll be able to sit behind them and unleash a strong finish.  Other hopes to Platelet, Counter Sign and Vatican.


Race 5 - I'm going with Playwright here.  This horse loves this track and distance winning 2 and running 2nd in the other from 3 goes.  He has been racing in good form in his 3 starts since a break and should be cherry ripe to run over his preferred distance.  Other hopes to Chasse, Lucky Eighty Eight and Stole.


Race 6 - Mawingo has come in for some strong support, firming from $5 to $2.80.  This horse has won a Group 3 and contested 2 Group 1's in it's short career overseas.  The fact it's raced by the same interests as Lucas Cranach has to be respected.  Other hopes to Under The Hat, Mr O'Ceirin and Snow Cover.


Race 7 - Liveandletdie looks right in this race.  Has a good overall record but importantly has won 3 times from 5 attempts down the straight.  Looked good in Group 1 race last start, only going down to Hay List by 2.6 lengths.  Other hopes to Faster Son, Miss Bindi and Gran Sasso.


Race 8 - I'll go with Cosmic Causeway in the last.  Didn't do a great deal 1st up but it never does.  2nd up it has never been out of a place.  Races well over this distance and likes a firmer track.  Should be able to get into a nice position to really threaten this race at good odds.  Other hopes to Typeface, Zabisco and Shenzhou Steeds.  


Doomben


Race 1 - I don't like getting involved in these types of 2 year old races.  Having said that, I will have a small wager on Wolfsburg.  Only just hung on to win last start over this trip.  Should be fitter that effort and be hard to run down from the inside gate.  Other hopes to Dansal, Khaantantes and Top Rada.


Race 2 - I can't stand these 2000+ Brissy races and I'll be giving this a wide berth.  


Race 3 - Again not a race I'm overly keen on.  I'm putting Tafeer on top.  She goes really well at this track winning 4 from 11.  Unfortunately she's never won beyond 1350m.  That's a concern.  However I think she'll get an easy lead here and that could prove decisive.  Other hopes to Rock Home Late, Ausworld and Random Orbit.


Race 4 - More Bubbly looks the one here.  Her 1st start in QLD was an impressive 3 length maiden win at this track.  Then had absolutely no luck when ran into a wall when looking likely.  Go  4 and 5 starts back and this horse was mixing it up with Laser Hawk and Streama.  Surely she'll brain this mob.  Other hopes to Finn Class, Belle Verde and Lady Agulhas.


Race 5 - Rocker's incredibly short for my liking.  Could very well win but $2 isn't for me.  I'll get behind Mossriver.  That stats don't lie here.  The horse is super at this track and distance.  Also goes extremely 1st up.  Gets 3kg off for the apprentice which really makes this horse a winning chance.  Other hopes to Rocker, Thefifthhole and Another Takeover.


Race 6 - I have 3 horses here that clearly rate better than the others. These being Morning Captain, Pretty Pins and Hidden Jewel.  These are the 3 winning hopes but I'm finding it difficult to separate.  I've settled on Hidden Jewel.  She lost by half a length to Morning Captain 1st up and I think she can turn the tables with improved fitness 2nd up.  She beat Pretty Pins convincingly last time they met.  These look the obvious trifecta to me.


Race 7 - The speed will be on here with at least a handful liking to lead or race near the front.  Although well short of his pet distance, that could play right into Spirit Of Boom's hands.  He has a super finish and could come over the top of these.  Other hopes to Excellantes, Adebisi and Latin News.


Race 8 - I don't know who Oak Street annoyed because he simply can't draw a gate.  Gets barrier 20 here but I think he can get across to a reasonable position.  Has missed out in his latest 2 by the narrowest of margins.  Has won at his only crack at this distance.  3kg off for Vance helps.  Other hopes to Bribie, By Choice and Show Me An Ace.  This is a very open affair so realistically you could give most of these a chance.

***I had a feeling top pick Oak Street would be scratched.  Bribie is now top pick with King Of The Kongo going into the other hopes***


Best Bets 


Randwick - Race 1 Number 3 Ichihara
                Race 4 Number 1 Rain Affair
                Race 8 Number 5 Permit
(Could add All Too Hard and Atlantic Jewel as well but they're probably going to be too short)


Flemington - Race 6 Number 2 Mawingo
                 Race 7 Number 1 Liveandletdie


Doomben - Race 4 Number 9 More Bubbly
               Race 5 Number 2 Mossriver