Friday 30 March 2012

31/03/12 - Rosehill Gardens, Moonee Valley and Eagle Farm

Rosehill Gardens

Race 1 - She's A Fox is a worthy favourite here but I've looked for a bit of value and gone with Valerio.  Currently around the $10 mark, I think it's a good e/w bet in a race of many chances.  It's had 2 career starts, winning on debut and running a close 2nd in the Sweet Embrace.  Should get a good run in the leading bunch.  Other hopes to She's A Fox, Cavalry Rose and Ichihara.

Race 2 - All Too Hard has been impressive since coming onto the scene.  It should be winning this but at $1.40, I won't be getting involved. 

Race 3 - I'm going with Anise here.  Has a great 1st up record, winning 1 and running 2nd to Foxwedge on 2 other occasions.  Goes well on a dead/good track and at this track.  Other hopes to African Pulse, Hallowell Belle and Aerobatics.

Race 4 - There's only 7 runners engaged here but it looks like it could be a cracking race.  Back on home soil, I'll be supporting Rain Affair.  Just loves this track and has won 4 out of 5 over this trip.  The odds on offer will be the key to me having a bet here.  

Race 5 - Crafty Irna could run a race here 3rd up. She races particularly well 3rd up from a spell which was evident last campaign when she finished 2nd to Lamasery over 2000m.  Her 2 lead up races have been sound.  Blinkers go on today to really focus her.  Other hopes to Foxstar, Fill The Page and Vintedge.

Race 6 - Speediness draws the car park here but tends to race towards the back of the pack anyway. Often because it misses the kick but hopefully that's not the case here.  Last start he missed the start by roughly 2 lengths which was the margin between it and Pied A Terre.  I think it can turn the tables here. There should be a fair speed set with a number of horses vying for the lead.  That will help.  A dead track would be ideal.  Other hopes to Pied A Terre, Niagara and Star Of Octagonal.

Race 7 - I'm going with Laser Hawk in the Guineas.  Has put together a nice record thus far, winning 3 from 4.  Ran a very good 3rd in the Randwick Guineas last start.  Will race on the speed and will prove very hard to run down.  Other hopes to Silent Achiever, Ocean Park and Proliferate.

Race 8 - Permit made good late ground last start when running 3rd over 2000m.  Gets out to 2400m here which has been a pet distance for him.  He's a winner at this track and over this distance at his only attempt.  Other hopes to Herculian Prince, Precedence and Merchandise.


Race 9 - The consistent Gybe will do me in the last.  This horse is always around the money.  Has won or placed 5 out of 7 over this distance and has never been out of a place at this track over the 1200m.  A dead track would be ideal.  Other hopes to Miss Marx, Ladys Angel and Celts.

***With the scratching of Ladys Angel, I'll promote Curtana to the other hopes***


Moonee Valley


Race 1 - Not a race I'm overly keen on.  Small field over 2000m could toss up an upset.  Placement, Go My Girl and Stole should be the 3 fighting it out.  


Race 2 - Again, not a race I'm getting involved in.  All 6 starters have a realistic chance of winning.


Race 3 - Limited form to have a bet on this 2 year old race.


Race 4 - Last start Draw Forward ran dead last.  That's obviously not the best form guide.  However it was a Group 2.  It's previous form was very good.  It's overall record is 3 wins from 8 and it has won both it's starts at this track and distance.  Should get a good run from the inside.  Other hopes to Her Diamond Rock, Tai Tai Tess.


Race 5 - This is a competitive race with a handful of horses having a realistic shot of winning.  I've gone with Second King.  The horse has a win and a 3rd from 2 races over this distance at this track.  It enters this race in good form, most recently winning the Stony Creek Cup.  Other hopes to Fawkner, Sidecar and Constant Force.


Race 6 - This is a good quality sprint and again, tough to pick a standout.  Halle Rocks didn't really handle the straight last start but was highly impressive before that.  I think she'll hit back here where she has won previously.  Other hopes to Snitzem, Amah Rock and Tres Vite.  


Race 7 - I'm going with Over Quota here.  He has been racing in good form previous to his last start 9th in the Blamey.  He had an outside draw there and finds himself on the peg today.  I think that could make a big difference.  Has won 6 from 17 over this trip.  Other hopes to Snow Cover, Testascana and Mr O'Ceirin.


Race 8 - I thought It's Crunch Time and Freereturn could dictate proceedings here. I've gone with It's Crunch Time as he only has to carry 54kg after the claim as opposed to 59kg for Freereturn. It's Crunch Time is flying at the moment and has won 4 from 7.  Unbeaten at this track.  Other hopes to Freereturn, Zabisco and Magic Weekend.


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - No thanks.


Race 2 - I give winning hopes to Holey Gadoley, Khaantantes, Regrets, Perfect Glory and Wolfsburg.  I can't settle on 1 so I may box them up in 1st 4.  


Race 3 - I'll stick with Dodging Eddie here.  He's awfully close to a win after some narrow defeats.  I doubt many of these will be able to match him over the concluding stages.  Other hopes to Marked, Diago and Billum.

***With the scratching of Marked, I'll promote Onetimeatbandcamp***


Race 4 - The Reveller looks the one here.  Firstly, he gets in with just 51.5kg after the claim.  He goes well here and over this distance.  He showed a brilliant finish last start and with such a low impost, he will be extremely hard to hold out especially with a solid speed set by Tafeer.  Other hopes to God's Window, Symposium and Paris Blu.


Race 5 - I was put off at first by the wide gate for Bingo Rose but after looking through the field, I don't see a great deal of quality.  She races well at this track and will appreciate a firmer surface.  She'll be charging home late.  Other hopes to Beggin, Lucky Songs and Rock Home Late.


Race 6 - Hidden Jewel comes up a clear top rater here.  Looked an impressive type before going for a spell.  It won both it's previous 2 starts at this track and will take a tonne of catching.  Other hopes to Rock Academy, Geological and Jack's Back.


Race 7 - It's hard to ignore Girls Go Racing here.  Brings great Sydney form here and comes off a strong win over 1000m in the Camarena.  With just 52kg after the claim, it will be very hard to beat with a hectic speed up front.  3 wins from 5 over this distance adds to a strong case.  Other hopes to My Cookie Monster, Amber's Crown and G'day Old Mate.


Race 8 - What a mongrel of a race to finish up with.  So many chances.  I'm going with a professional placegetter in Embraer.  Has a good record over this distance and has won it's only go at this track.  Sure he hasn't won a lot (2 from 19) but he's always close at the finish.  Other hopes to Vaarwel, Snippets Secret and Mist In The Morn.  Realistically you could add any number of horses to the hopes.


Best Bets


Rosehill Gardens - Race 5 Number 5 Crafty Irna
                         Race 7 Number 13 Laser Hawk
                        Race 9 Number 6 Gybe 


Moonee Valley - Race 8 Number 9 It's Crunch Time


Eagle Farm - Race 4 Number 10 The Reveller
                  Race 6 Number 6 Hidden Jewel
                  Race 7 Number 4 Girls Go Racing

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