Friday 16 March 2012

17/03/12 - Randwick, Eagle Farm and Bendigo

Randwick

Race 1 - Brightest has been one we've been following lately and I think she gets the chance to repay our faith here.  This looks a moderate bunch and this horse has been racing in harder races than this.  Will be suited by a decent tempo to run on late.  Goes well at this track.  Other hopes to Cabernet, Sydney's Destiny and Dancing Attendance.

Race 2 - I expect Raceway to win this but I won't be taking the short odds.  It only narrowly beat Shelford last start but should get a good run here behind the speed despite the wide gate.  Shelford hardest to beat.

Race 3 - No confidence in this race so I'll sit this 1 out.  I see the main players as Jade Marauder, Agueda, Flying Snitzel and Valerio.

Race 4 - Herculian Prince has to lump 59kg here when most of it's rivals are around the 54kg mark.  However it's 2 starts back from a spell have been in Group 1 and 2 company where it has carried a similar weight and been very competitive.  You would think that type of form would make it too strong here.  Has a good overall record and has won 2 from 4 at this distance.  Other hopes to Platamone Castle, Maules Creek and Merlin Mustang.

Race 5 - I was initially concerned that 58.5kg was a bit much for Nobby Snip to carry.  Especially when Group winners and placegetters are getting similar weights.  However the horse looks a nice type and has won with big weights before.  It's won 4 from 6 career starts and looked very impressive winning 1st up.  Has a perfect 2nd up record to go with it's perfect record over this distance.  Should get a nice run from the 2 gate.  Other hopes to Niagara, Charm's Honour and War Charm.

Race 6 - It's hard to go past Mosheen here.  Her effort in the Australian Guineas was outstanding and I just can't ignore that.  Has a great record over this distance and on dead/good tracks.  Other hopes to Manawanui, Doctor Doom and Strike The Stars.

Race 7 - Alberton Park has been racing really well since joining the O'Shea stable.  The horse enjoys a dead track and has a consistent record over this trip. Lost narrowly to Dystopia last start when finishing strongly.  Meets Dystopia 4kg better here.  Looks to be enough speed on here to enable Alby to be charging home.  Other hopes to Curtana, Dystopia and Gybe.

Race 8 - I'll be looking the way of Forfeiture in the last.  Looked good resuming where she won with a bit in hand.  Goes well on a dead surface and won her only previous 2nd up start.  Ran a close up 2nd to Single last campaign.  Other hopes to Velrosso, Revolt and Knot Out.

Eagle Farm

Race 1 - No thank you!

Race 2 - Extend lunch a bit longer. No thanks.

Race 3 - They're not giving us much to work with here!  I'll have a small wager on Winmara.  I would have put Marked on top but I think the track will be too damp for it.  Winmara on the otherhand enjoys it.  It has been racing quite well lately.  Gets 3kg off for young Vance.  Other hopes to Marked, Break The Ice and Attica.

Race 4 - The Silk has been given strict instructions to put Dodging Eddie on top here.  Last 2 starts where he ran 2nd and 3rd by small margins were very good.  He ran on in those suggesting the 1800m is ideal now.  Drops to 54kg and Munce stays onboard.  Weighted to win!  Other hopes to Emoticon, Bang On and Diago.

***With the scratching of Bang On, I'll promote Confident to the other hopes***

Race 5 - This is a tricky affair with such a big field.  I give at least a handful a winning chance.  I've gone with Trump.  Is the class runner in the field.  Has 58kg to contend with but Heathcote has thrown Hurdle the apprentice onboard to take off 3kg.  The horse has a good 1st up record winning it's 1st start in each of it's last 2 campaigns.  Loves this track and distance.  Will need a bit of luck from the wide gate but should be running on strong.  Other hopes to Another Superior, Gatineau River and Flying Jet.

***With the scratching of Trump, I'll make Another Superior my top pick and promote Faultless Dancer to the other hopes***

Race 6 - I'm going with Border Rebel here.  It's raced in group races and gets in with 57.5kg after the claim for Allen.  Will get a lovely run from the peg.  This horse has an unbelievable 1st up record winning 5 from 7.  Loves this distance and loves the sting out of the track.  Other hopes to Funtantes, Carry To Fortune and Haizum.

Race 7 - It's hard to go past Win A Million.  It simply looks the best in the race.  Has solid form over this distance and really went well when she won last start.  Loves this track and distance.  Other hopes to Tokamak, Trombone Alley and Starlin.

***With the scratching of Starlin, I'll promote Machination to the other hopes***

Race 8 - I don't think Oak Street will get caught wide today.  He's drawn wide but I think he has enough in the tank to cross across and lead or box seat.  Looked a really nice type in it's first campaign where he won all 4 starts.  Other hopes to De Bois, Gunner Knox and Altai Warrior.

***With the scratching of De Bois, I'll promote Requested to the other hopes***

Bendigo

Race 1 - A field of 6 2 year olds...no thanks.


Race 2 - I've going with Tykook here.  Has raced in some reasonable races and has been thereabouts.  Has placed or won in 5 races from 8 at this distance.  Could get a sneaky lead here and go on with it.  Other hopes to Incredulous, Red Rain and City Of Song.


Race 3 - I'm going to back Hurdy Gurdy Man.  He's had 2 runs back after a year off the scene.  I don't think there's a lot in this race so this guy could be ready to run a race 3rd up.  Has show a liking for dead/slow ground in his brief career.  He has seen strong support since odds went up.  Other hopes Miss Phromily, Verification and Set The Course.


Race 4 - American Crew gets in here with just 51.5kg after the claimer takes 3.  With most of these carrying 57 or more, that will be a massive advantage.  The horse will lob in front or sit in the leading few.  Won 1st up last campaign and loves this distance.  Other hopes to Faster Son, Typeface and Sertorius.


Race 5 - I won't be getting too involved here but I do think Rowland is worth a couple of bucks.  Has to carry 60kg but has the master D.Oliver to make life a bit easier for him.  Has some solid form around Drunken Sailor and Hanks.  Has a good record at this distance.  Other hopes to Jelly Baby, Robrick and Golden Calibre.


Race 6 - Princess Narine looks well placed here.  Would really love a good track but can handle dead.  Gets just 54.5kg here after racing well against the likes of Speediness and Hi Belle.  Reckon that could be telling against these.  Other hopes to Sparks Alight, Two Hills and Ky's The Limit.


Race 7 - Testascana looks well positioned here for a win.  Had a rubbish gate last time but here he gets the inside.  He'll make full use of that and get himself into a prominent position.  Has a super record over this distance, winning 3 from 4.  Goes best on a dead to slow track which he gets here.  Other hopes to Folding Gear, Happy Trails and Veewap.

***With the scratching of Veewap, I'll promote Eraset to the other hopes***


Race 8 - I'm going with Canonized here.  Has a great record at this track and distance.  Has been racing ok in his past few.  Has been freshened up and blinkers go on for the 1st time.  Will get a good run from the gate. Looks primed.  Other hopes to So Swift, Shanghai Warrior and Sparks Burn.


Race 9 - Tough way to finish the card.  After having over 2 years out of racing, British General has come back in flying form.  It's won it's 2 starts well.  Has an outside gate but should be able to push across early to take up a prominent position.  Will enjoy the sting out of the track.  Other hopes to Spartini, Hotham Heights and That's Not It.


Best Bets


Randwick - Race 1 Number 12 Brightest
                Race 4 Number 3 Herculian Prince
                Race 6 Number 17 Mosheen


Eagle Farm - Race 7 Number 1 Win A Million


Bendigo - Race 4 Number 7 American Crew
              Race 6 Number 3 Princess Narine
              Race 7 Number 4 Testascana

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