Race 1 - I won't be getting overly involved in the opening event. Depending on the odds available, I might have a small bet on Armed For Action. This horse ran 3rd in the Blue Diamond after running on the speed. Has a wide gate here but Craig Williams is on board and he can nullify this. Other hopes to Snitzerland, Mrs Gray and Nicskioffski.
Race 2 - I'm going with Glows here. It has a great record over the 1200m. From 4 attempts it's won 2 and run 2nd in the other 2. Track conditions should be ideal and it will be racing on the speed. Has form around Soft Sand. Last start winner. Other hopes to Halle Rocks, Sharnee Rose and Satin Shoes.
***With the scratching of Satin Shoes, I'll promote American Dream to the other hopes***
***With the scratching of Satin Shoes, I'll promote American Dream to the other hopes***
Race 3 - I'm going to buy into the hype surrounding All Too Hard until he proves otherwise. Yes, this is Black Caviar's half brother so we'll more than likely be getting unders. However he did win fairly well on debut. Dwayne Dunn has elected to ride this horse over Mama's Choice which is a strong recommendation. Other hopes to Pronto Pronto, Jimando and Shamexpress.
Race 4 - I really like the look of Speediness here. It has been racing in super nick since coming back, winning both it's starts. In it's last 3rd up run it won. Has a top record over this distance and on good to dead tracks. Will be tough to hold out. Other hopes to Snow Cover, Wall Street and Pied A Terre.
Race 5 - I think the best 2 horses in this race are Shopaholic and Soft Sand and they should be fighting this out. I'm throwing my support behind Soft Sand. Last start it ran 1 length to Shopaholic when forced to race outside the lead from the wide gate. In this race, I think she'll get a much better run just behind the speed. Other hopes to Shopaholic, Total Attraction and Angel Of Mercy.
Race 6 - I can't wait for this race! So many classy horses engaged here. The default selection would be Hay List as it's the only horse ever to test Black Caviar. It could very well win and that wouldn't surprise but I won't be on it. I'll probably be on my own here but I have a vibe King's Rose can do something fresh here. I reckons it's worth an e/w ticket at around the $20 mark. 1 negative is that it doesn't have a strong record over 1200m. Countering that is that it is very strong over 1400-1600m. Has a great 1st up record and loves a good to dead track. With a solid speed on, I think it will be 1 horse that will be strong at the finish. Other hopes to Hay List, Bel Sprinter and Rain Affair.
***With the scratching of Bel Sprinter, I'll promote Buffering to the other hopes***
***With the scratching of Bel Sprinter, I'll promote Buffering to the other hopes***
Race 7 - I think Manighar has been super in his 2 starts back this time around. Won 1st up convincingly and then ran under 2 lengths to Lucas Cranach last start. Should be cherry ripe for a win here. Other hopes to Americain, Southern Speed and Illo.
Race 8 - I'm going with Hi Belle in this. She has been unsuccessful at Flemington in the past but does have a fantastic record over this distance. She has 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 cracks at 1600m. Her form in group company since coming back from a spell has been great. Other hopes to Spirit Song, Cute Emily and Lady Lynette.
Race 9 - I like the look of Pago Rock in the last. This horse got the biscuits for us 2 starts back and came agonisingly close last start when it when down narrowly to Speediness. Has a good record at this distance and loves a good to dead track Will be prominent in running. Other hopes to I'm Discreet, Eraset and Blackie.
***With the scratching of Blackie, I'll promote Smokin' Joey to the other hopes***
Warwick Farm
Race 1 - I will have a very small bet on Kristy Lee here. Ran a close up 2nd on debut on a slow track after running 4 wide. The Pumper should be able to get the horse in a better position from the 4 alley.
Race 2 - This looks a suitable race for Merchandise. Gets to suitable distance here 3rd up. Has won 2 from 2 3rd up. Has shown an ability to handle a wet track. Won here on a heavy previously. Other hopes to Palasport and Frozen Rope.
Race 3 - Gybe has the widest gate here but I think Robl can get the horse across to a decent position. It has a lot in it's favour. It hasn't missed a place 1st up or on a heavy track. Warmed up for this with a 2 length trial behind Beaded. Other hopes to Celts, Title and La Remlap.
***With the scratching of Gybe, I'll promote Celts to top pick and add Potions to the other hopes***
Race 4 - It's hard to go past Streama based on past achievements. Narrowly went down 1st up. Has a good 2nd up record and can handle the wet. Has shown a real liking for this track in the past. Other hopes to Hallowell Belle, Sea Siren and Detours.
***Detours is scratched. I won't be replacing it in the other hopes***
Race 5 - I'm finding it very hard to split stablemates Brayroan and Said Com. I've gone with Brayroan as it offers a bit better value around the $6 mark. It's unbeaten in it's 3 starts over this distance. Goes extremely well 3rd up. Other hopes to Said Com, Second Draw and Agent Bauer.
***Said Com is scratched. I won't add anything to the other hopes but I will make Brayroan best bet***
Race 6 - I'm putting Pinker Pinker on top here. I said last start that we'd want to be on her next start because her perfect 2nd up record. Has shown an ability to handle an heavy track with a win and 3rd from 2 starts on it. Other hopes to Shoot Out, Sacred Choice and Danleigh.
Race 7 - I'm a little concerned that Neeson has to carry 58.5kg on a heavy track but it has shown an ability to lump big weights in the past. The horse goes sensationally 2nd up. From 5 attempts it's won 3 and placed the others. Loves this distance and goes really well in the wet. Other hopes to Somepin Anypin, Triple Elegance and Ofcourseican.
***Triple Elegance has been scratched. I won't be adding anything to the other hopes***
Race 8 - I've gone Secret Admirer in the last. I was concerned that she may get too far back which usually isn't an advantage at this track. However there should be a fair pace set which will help her chances. Also she has finished 2nd here twice. Goes well 2nd up and has handled heavy in the past. Other hopes to Alberton Park, Lady Angel and Steps In Time.
***With the scratching of Alberton Park, I'll add Cabernet to the other hopes***
Doomben
Race 1 - I'm putting this race in the too hard basket.
Race 2 - This looks an ideal race for Shamardashing. Gets out to an ideal distance. Goes well in the wet and at this track. Really should just have too much for these.
Race 3 - There's not enough wet track form from these 2 year olds for me to entertain having a bet here.
Race 4 - I think we have another good thing here in Mystical Grey. Went close to winning 1st up and has a great 2nd up record. Will get through the going and has a good record at this distance. Should have too much on these.
Race 5 - I've gone with the top weight here What About Me. I won't lie, 59kg is a massive concern. However he did win on heavy with 58kg by 5 lengths. Admittedly that was a class 1. Winning form is good form and this bloke has put together 4 on the trot. Gets a nice run from the inside. Other hopes to Defenceman, Artic and That's Karma.
Race 6 - Warrior Girl gets track conditions to suit here. Her record on a dead or slow track is streets better than on a dry track. My big concern with this race is that a number of horses I consider chances haven't shown form over this short trip. Warrior Girl has a couple of wins to her credit over this distance. I won't be getting carried away here but she's in with a show. Other hopes to Ten Seconds, The Ringmaster and Lucky Deluchi.
***With the scratching of Warrior Girl, I'll promote The Ringmaster to top pick and bring in Cyclone Brad to the other hopes***
Race 7 - This race puts the fear of God into me. Nothing is jumping out and saying, "I'm going to run a race." The big problem I'm seeing is that horses that can run the trip, can't handle a damp track and horses that can handle the going, have poor records over this distance range. By rights, Geblitzt should make this race hers but she's just not racing well enough. I'm going to have a small wager on Bingo Rose. Has an imposing record at this distance winning 3 from 4. It's stats for rain affected going is fairly average but then so are a lot of these. Other hopes...the field.
Race 8 - The speed up front should be solid and for that reason I'm going with a horse that will be coming from the back. That horse is Around The World. Is undefeated in 3 attempts at this distance and just loves the track. It also enjoys the company of Nori Yamada who has guided this mare to 4 wins from 5 rides. I think it's great value around the $9 mark. Other hopes to The Reveller, Sinister Prince and Theft.
Best Bets
Flemington - Race 4 Number 13 Speediness
Race 8 Number 3 Hi Belle
Race 9 Number 11 Pago Rock
Warwick Farm - Race 4 Number 2 Streama
Race 5 Number 7 Brayroan
Race 6 Number 8 Pinker Pinker
Race 8 Number 1 Secret Admirer
Doomben - Race 2 Number 2 Shamardashing
Race 4 Number 2 Mystical Grey
***With the scratching of Blackie, I'll promote Smokin' Joey to the other hopes***
Warwick Farm
Race 1 - I will have a very small bet on Kristy Lee here. Ran a close up 2nd on debut on a slow track after running 4 wide. The Pumper should be able to get the horse in a better position from the 4 alley.
Race 2 - This looks a suitable race for Merchandise. Gets to suitable distance here 3rd up. Has won 2 from 2 3rd up. Has shown an ability to handle a wet track. Won here on a heavy previously. Other hopes to Palasport and Frozen Rope.
Race 3 - Gybe has the widest gate here but I think Robl can get the horse across to a decent position. It has a lot in it's favour. It hasn't missed a place 1st up or on a heavy track. Warmed up for this with a 2 length trial behind Beaded. Other hopes to Celts, Title and La Remlap.
***With the scratching of Gybe, I'll promote Celts to top pick and add Potions to the other hopes***
Race 4 - It's hard to go past Streama based on past achievements. Narrowly went down 1st up. Has a good 2nd up record and can handle the wet. Has shown a real liking for this track in the past. Other hopes to Hallowell Belle, Sea Siren and Detours.
***Detours is scratched. I won't be replacing it in the other hopes***
Race 5 - I'm finding it very hard to split stablemates Brayroan and Said Com. I've gone with Brayroan as it offers a bit better value around the $6 mark. It's unbeaten in it's 3 starts over this distance. Goes extremely well 3rd up. Other hopes to Said Com, Second Draw and Agent Bauer.
***Said Com is scratched. I won't add anything to the other hopes but I will make Brayroan best bet***
Race 6 - I'm putting Pinker Pinker on top here. I said last start that we'd want to be on her next start because her perfect 2nd up record. Has shown an ability to handle an heavy track with a win and 3rd from 2 starts on it. Other hopes to Shoot Out, Sacred Choice and Danleigh.
Race 7 - I'm a little concerned that Neeson has to carry 58.5kg on a heavy track but it has shown an ability to lump big weights in the past. The horse goes sensationally 2nd up. From 5 attempts it's won 3 and placed the others. Loves this distance and goes really well in the wet. Other hopes to Somepin Anypin, Triple Elegance and Ofcourseican.
***Triple Elegance has been scratched. I won't be adding anything to the other hopes***
Race 8 - I've gone Secret Admirer in the last. I was concerned that she may get too far back which usually isn't an advantage at this track. However there should be a fair pace set which will help her chances. Also she has finished 2nd here twice. Goes well 2nd up and has handled heavy in the past. Other hopes to Alberton Park, Lady Angel and Steps In Time.
***With the scratching of Alberton Park, I'll add Cabernet to the other hopes***
Doomben
Race 1 - I'm putting this race in the too hard basket.
Race 2 - This looks an ideal race for Shamardashing. Gets out to an ideal distance. Goes well in the wet and at this track. Really should just have too much for these.
Race 3 - There's not enough wet track form from these 2 year olds for me to entertain having a bet here.
Race 4 - I think we have another good thing here in Mystical Grey. Went close to winning 1st up and has a great 2nd up record. Will get through the going and has a good record at this distance. Should have too much on these.
Race 5 - I've gone with the top weight here What About Me. I won't lie, 59kg is a massive concern. However he did win on heavy with 58kg by 5 lengths. Admittedly that was a class 1. Winning form is good form and this bloke has put together 4 on the trot. Gets a nice run from the inside. Other hopes to Defenceman, Artic and That's Karma.
Race 6 - Warrior Girl gets track conditions to suit here. Her record on a dead or slow track is streets better than on a dry track. My big concern with this race is that a number of horses I consider chances haven't shown form over this short trip. Warrior Girl has a couple of wins to her credit over this distance. I won't be getting carried away here but she's in with a show. Other hopes to Ten Seconds, The Ringmaster and Lucky Deluchi.
***With the scratching of Warrior Girl, I'll promote The Ringmaster to top pick and bring in Cyclone Brad to the other hopes***
Race 7 - This race puts the fear of God into me. Nothing is jumping out and saying, "I'm going to run a race." The big problem I'm seeing is that horses that can run the trip, can't handle a damp track and horses that can handle the going, have poor records over this distance range. By rights, Geblitzt should make this race hers but she's just not racing well enough. I'm going to have a small wager on Bingo Rose. Has an imposing record at this distance winning 3 from 4. It's stats for rain affected going is fairly average but then so are a lot of these. Other hopes...the field.
Race 8 - The speed up front should be solid and for that reason I'm going with a horse that will be coming from the back. That horse is Around The World. Is undefeated in 3 attempts at this distance and just loves the track. It also enjoys the company of Nori Yamada who has guided this mare to 4 wins from 5 rides. I think it's great value around the $9 mark. Other hopes to The Reveller, Sinister Prince and Theft.
Best Bets
Flemington - Race 4 Number 13 Speediness
Race 8 Number 3 Hi Belle
Race 9 Number 11 Pago Rock
Warwick Farm - Race 4 Number 2 Streama
Race 5 Number 7 Brayroan
Race 6 Number 8 Pinker Pinker
Race 8 Number 1 Secret Admirer
Doomben - Race 2 Number 2 Shamardashing
Race 4 Number 2 Mystical Grey
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