I must be mad to be contemplating even looking at Flemington on Sunday after a horror day today. I wouldn't blame you if you closed the Silk now. For those of you that are suckers for punishment, I'm glad you stuck around! The feature race for the day is the Turnbull Stakes which could give us a guide to how some of the Cups hopefuls are going. Best of luck!
Flemington
Race 1 - I won't be getting involved here. A race for unraced 2 year olds doesn't drum up a great deal of confidence. If forced to pick one, I'd go for Drive. In a trial it ran 5th to Holy Right, Magnusificent and Strength. However from all reports, it was given a soft time while the others were urged on to some degree.
Race 2 - Going with Meethaq in a tough race. He ran on nicely last start to go down by 3.8 lengths to Moment Of Change. Moment Of Change is being talked about as a Caulfield Guineas chance so I think that puts Meethaq into this race nicely. Shouldn't have any concerns if the track is damp. Other hopes to Collar, Most Husbands and Highly Recommended.
Race 3 - I'll be supporting a kiwi in the Bart Cummings. That horse is My Scotsgrey. He'll probably take up a spot towards the back of the field but you can be fairly certain he'll be steaming home. The big straight should allow him to wind up. He's a former NZ Cup winner over 3200m and the way he finished off behind December Draw last outing suggests to me that he will be right in this. Other hopes to Niwot, Black And Bent and Light Vision.
Race 4 - I like the look of Parables in the Blazer Stakes. She's never been out of a place in 11 starts. Her past 2 runs in Melboure have been tops, finishing 1.3 lengths behind Pinker Pinker last start. She can handle any going and I think she's up to her eyeballs in this. Other hopes to Smoulder, Annlea and Lady Lynette.
Race 5 - The Edward Manifold Stakes for 3 year old fillies has drawn quite a good field. I'm going to stick with Celebrity Girl. I was on her last time when she lost a protest and was relegated to 4th. I think she's a special animal and will place my faith in her again to prove that. I have a small concern over the 1600m but being 3rd up she should be more capable of running it out. Other hopes to Mosheen, Bliss Street and Euryale.
Race 6 - The Gilgai Stakes has produced a quality group of sprinters. I'm really looking forward to seeing this race. Although this race will be tough to pick, the upside is that plenty of value will be on offer. I have ended up going with Curtana. It ticks a lot of boxes for this race. It's got a good straight track record, great over the distance and can handle most goings well. With only 54kg, I think Nolan will be able to rate her well. At around the $11 mark, she'll do me. Other hopes to Vareena Miss, Schrapnel and Decision Time. In the fair dinkum department, you could just about list every other horse as having a hope.
Race 7 - The Turnbull Stakes looks a cracking race. This race will either confirm or deny December Draw's credentials for the Melbourne Cup. Glass Harmonium should get an unchallenged lead here. For this reason I'll be with it. It's dropping to 55kg and from the peg, McEvoy should be able to dictate the pace. It's having it's 3rd run back from a spell and last time it was 3rd up, it put in it's best performance. It always seems to be around the money. Other hopes to December Draw, Southern Speed, Linton and Rekindled Interest.
Race 8 - I backed Costly Commitment last start when it won and I see no reason to jump ship here. I may stand corrected but I don't see a lot of opposition to it in this race. Form leading into this is good and the 1800m looks like it will be right up it's alley. Other hopes to Vatuvei (could be an omen for the Warriors if it wins), Powerbroker and Trump.
Best Bets
Race 3 Number 11 My Scotsgrey
Race 4 Number 3 Parables
Race 8 Number 3 Costly Commitment
Value Bet
Race 6 Number 17 Curtana
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