G'day punters. How'd you pull up after last weekend's bonanza of sport and racing? This Saturday promises to be a great day with the highlights being the Caulfield Guineas and the return of super horse, Black Caviar. I'm salivating at the thought right now! Delicious. I've worked on a dead track for Caulfield with a sneaky eye on it getting worse. A slow track for Rosehill and a dead track for Eagle Farm. As is always the case, keep an eye on weather conditions and any changes to the track rating. Anyway let's get stuck into it.
***Updated selections for Eagle Farm. It's been hosing down for a few hours so I can't see the track being any better than slow. Heavy would be my guess.***
***Updated selections for Eagle Farm. It's been hosing down for a few hours so I can't see the track being any better than slow. Heavy would be my guess.***
Caulfield
Race 1 - Early start to the day and I won't be getting involved in this race. A small field of inexperienced horses has the makings of an upset. If forced to settle on one, I'd go for Revitalise. Should be able to get to the lead or be handy. Has good form around Secret Hills. Other hopes to American Dream, Adamantium and Whitlam.
Race 2 - Another tricky race in my mind. Cases could be made for the majority of these so if I decide to have a go, it will be a very small way. I have gone for Platelet. Just think it's been more consistent than the rest of these. Hasn't been out of a place, handles the sting out of the ground and should get into a nice position from the 3 gate. Form around it is quite good. Other hopes to Hollyweird, Emerald Downs and Not A Dancer.
Race 3 - Going to stick with Shewan in the Herbert Power Stakes. The Silk was on him last start where he impressed in a strong finishing 2nd. The extra 400m should be ideal. Very consistent type. Other hopes to Midnight Martini, Tanby and Lucky Eighty Eight. I could include a few others but you can't name the lot! In short, it's an open affair.
Race 4 - The Schillaci Stakes sees the return of Black Caviar. She goes for her 14th straight win and looks way too good. Watch and marvel.
Race 5 - The Group 1 Caulfield Stakes looks like an interesting affair. I found it hard to separate Lion Tamer and Mighty High. In the end I went with last start Underwood winner Lion Tamer. Thought it's effort was really good and I really like it's runs in last year's Vase and Vic Derby. Think it gets the right run and will be hard to hold out. Other hopes to Mighty High, At First Sight and Sincero.
*New Selections: Lion Tamer, Mighty High, Sincero and Lights Of Heaven.*
Race 6 - I really like the look of King's Rose. I've been waiting for a month for her to have another run and she gets everything in her favour here. Her record over the distance is perfect and she handles any going. Her win last start has been a tremendous form race with 7 out of 8 runners having their next run, winning or running second. Big show. Other hopes to Fast Clip, Luen Yat Forever, Woorim and Toorak Toff.
Race 7 - Despite a small field, the Caulfield Guineas looks on paper to be an intriguing affair. I see Helmet and Smart Missile fighting this out, followed by Manawanui and Chase The Rainbow. Now splitting Helmet and Smart Missile has proven to be quite a task. I settled on Helmet. His win in the Prelude was hard to ignore. He should be able to set the tempo and will be hard to run down. Minors filled by Smart Missile, Manawanui and Chase The Rainbow.
Race 8 - I like the look of Valentine Miss here following her nice 2nd behind Sister Madly last start. Sister Madly franked that form by running 2nd to Sepoy. This horse is never far off the mark, going down by 2 lengths or less in it's past 5 starts. Should be right in this. Other hopes to Miss Octopussy, Lady Mahler and Celts.
Race 4 - The Schillaci Stakes sees the return of Black Caviar. She goes for her 14th straight win and looks way too good. Watch and marvel.
Race 5 - The Group 1 Caulfield Stakes looks like an interesting affair. I found it hard to separate Lion Tamer and Mighty High. In the end I went with last start Underwood winner Lion Tamer. Thought it's effort was really good and I really like it's runs in last year's Vase and Vic Derby. Think it gets the right run and will be hard to hold out. Other hopes to Mighty High, At First Sight and Sincero.
*New Selections: Lion Tamer, Mighty High, Sincero and Lights Of Heaven.*
Race 6 - I really like the look of King's Rose. I've been waiting for a month for her to have another run and she gets everything in her favour here. Her record over the distance is perfect and she handles any going. Her win last start has been a tremendous form race with 7 out of 8 runners having their next run, winning or running second. Big show. Other hopes to Fast Clip, Luen Yat Forever, Woorim and Toorak Toff.
Race 7 - Despite a small field, the Caulfield Guineas looks on paper to be an intriguing affair. I see Helmet and Smart Missile fighting this out, followed by Manawanui and Chase The Rainbow. Now splitting Helmet and Smart Missile has proven to be quite a task. I settled on Helmet. His win in the Prelude was hard to ignore. He should be able to set the tempo and will be hard to run down. Minors filled by Smart Missile, Manawanui and Chase The Rainbow.
Race 8 - I like the look of Valentine Miss here following her nice 2nd behind Sister Madly last start. Sister Madly franked that form by running 2nd to Sepoy. This horse is never far off the mark, going down by 2 lengths or less in it's past 5 starts. Should be right in this. Other hopes to Miss Octopussy, Lady Mahler and Celts.
*New Selections: Valentine Miss, Lady Mahler, Celts and Gybe.*
Race 9 - Testa My Patience is up to it's eyeballs in this. It loves the track and distance, can handle any going and has put in 2 top runs since coming back from a spell. It meets Utah Saints better at the weights from their past battle. Other hopes to Utah Saints, Studley Park and At The Heads.
*New Selections: Testa My Patience, Utah Saints, At The Heads and Spacecraft.*
Rosehill
Race 1 - I won't get involved in this race. Too many uncertainties in regards to how these horses will handle a slow track.
Race 2 - A reasonably big field of 2 year olds with all bar 3 having their 1st start. Not a race I'll be getting involved in. If pushed to pick 1 then I'd probably go with Tatra. The only reason would be that it defeated Pierro who won it's 1st start last week.
Race 3 - Hardly a race to get inspired about. I'll go with Dystopia but with a minimal amount of confidence. It goes well 2nd up, handles the wet and has an ok record at the track/distance. Other hopes to Parriwi, Shamus and Agister.
Race 4 - Going with King Gladiator. Liked the way he ran on from last to win his 1st up run. 1900m should really suit 2nd up. In his previous campaign he ran competitively at Group 1 and 2 level. With 53kg he could be the testing material for these. Other hopes to Fiscal, Teardrop Rock and Kim Divine.
Race 5 - The odds may be too short to back this fellow but Lightinthenite looks a nice type. It has won it's 3 race starts well. Handled the wet going in it's 2nd win. Other hopes to Hood, From The Vault and Broadcast.
*New Selections: Lightinthenite, Hood, From The Vault and Samui Lad.*
Race 6 - Quite keen on Shannara. Has a lot in her favour. Great 2nd up record, handles any going and likes the distance. Should get a gun run and has some favourable performances in better quality races than this to her credit. Other hopes to Skyerush, Jalsah and Foxstar.
*New Selections: Shannara, Skyerush, Foxstar and Little Surfer Girl.*
Race 7 - I found this a tricky race to get a hold of. There's limited speed in the race and also questionable wet track form. I'm going to take a chance on 1 at big odds from the Joe Pride yard. Upon is a former Victorian horse that is more accustomed to distances over 2000m. However it showed a nice finish over 1200m 1st up to suggest that it could be competitive against this bunch. It has a good 2nd up record and has won on heavy. At $17 for the win, that will do me. Other hopes to Tom's Rocket, Rockin' Rocket and Indiscretions.
Race 8 - It took till the final event of the day to find a race of any substance. Speaking through my pocket, I've had enough of Somepin Anypin. He's been disappointing his last 2 starts and I'm prepared to pot him here. Could be a bad move given he's on 53kg. I'm going with Pureness. This is the class runner in the race and accordingly will carry 60kg in the wet. This is a concern. However I'm prepared to think that this will be offset by it's great 1st up record, great ability in the wet and love of the track and distance. The horse warmed up for this by beating My Kingdom of Fife and Red Tracer recently in a trial. I see it as much better value than the favourite. Other hopes to Somepin Anypin, Erewhon and Monton.
Eagle Farm
Race 1 - I'll put my trust in Emmalene in the opening race. It's 1st up run and beating of State Of Wealth holds it in good stead here. The fact Birchley took the horse to Sydney last start suggests to me that he thinks a bit of it. Barrier 12 shouldn't pose a problem as Cassidy can take her back and unload a powerful finish if he likes. Other hopes to Playtime, Dorchester and Kelbenjar.
*New Selections: Kelbenjar, Playtime, Emmalene and Dorchester.*
Race 2 - Awesome a 2 year old race of 14 where only 2 runners have had a start. It's pot luck baby. No thank you! If a gun was held to my head, I'd go with Noogoora Burr.
*New Selection: REALLY stay out of this 1!*
Race 3 - Cool, it's the 2 year old girls turn where only a handful have had a start. I won't be touching this race. If you're a lunatic and love to live dangerously, work around Crown Of Coureuse, Durbanite, Social Suicide, Style Music and Write Cheek.
Race 4 - The testing material here looks to be Listen Son. He's won 2 trials leading into this and in past races has competed well at Group level. By rights he should be too classy. I'd be checking the odds before placing any bets however as you may find it isn't worth your while. You know risk/reward etc. Other hopes to Poor Judge, Fillydelphia and Hour Of Peril.
*New Selections: Fillydelphia, Poor Judge,Hour Of Peril and Anchor Bolt*
Race 5 - I'm going with Scarlett Jo. Quite a few question marks hang over a lot of these and their ability to run 2200m. Not so with Scarlett Jo. You just get the feeling she's building up to a win. She loves a dead surface as well. Other hopes to Sam's Town, Sunshine Angel and Bitasilk.
*Fairly happy that these will handle the wet.*
Race 6 - I get the feeling this is a race in 2. Racing Heart and Eastline should be fighting the finish out here. Going with Racing Heart as the last run from Eastline may leave it a little flat. Barrier 1, 3rd up and a liking for the sting out of the track all bode well for Racing Heart. Other hopes are Eastline, Deacon and Topping.
*Wet track brings increased confidence in Racing Heart.*
Race 7 - The withdrawal of Risk Aversion disappoints me greatly. I was quite keen on it. However the race is now a wide open affair. I have gone with Lucky Dubai. When going through this race I found a lot of the horses I thought had a chance drew badly. That's not the case with Lucky Dubai. She loves the track, doesn't mind the sting out and should be charging home. Other hopes to Koranovsky, Win A Million and Luminous Harmony.
*New Selections: Lucky Dubai, Win A Million, Vipera Gold and Sailor Sam.*
Race 8 - A 7 length trial win is hard to ignore. Especially when the horse won a trial by 6.5 lengths last campaign and then won 1st up. The horse is Audacious Spirit and I'll be hoping a repeat dose is on the cards. Draws close in so it will be given every opportunity to go off like grandma's undies on a hot day. Other hopes to Cariad, God's Window, Just Been Lucky and Redessi.
*New Selections: God's Window, Redessi, G'day Old Mate, Charter Boat and Just Been Lucky.*
Best Bets
Caulfield - Race 6 Number 6 King's Rose
Race 8 Number 5 Valentine Miss
Race 9 Number 4 Testa My Patience
Rosehill - Race 4 Number 5 King Gladiator
Race 5 Number 7 Lightinthenite
Race 6 Number 4 Shannara
Eagle Farm - Race 5 Number 4 Scarlett Jo
Race 6 Number 2 Racing Heart
Race 7 Number Lucky Dubai
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