G'day punters. Things definitely get serious today with the running of the Caulfield Cup. Traditionally the race has provided a great insight into the chances of horses leading into the Melbourne Cup. This year won't be any different. Besides Caulfield, we have racing from Randwick and Eagle Farm. Selections have been based on the conditions being dead for Caulfield and Randwick while Eagle Farm has been based on a wet track.
***Unfortunately there has been quite a number of scratchings this morning at Eagle Farm due to the heavy rain which has eliminated many of the Silk's selections. Updated selections have been included.***
***Unfortunately there has been quite a number of scratchings this morning at Eagle Farm due to the heavy rain which has eliminated many of the Silk's selections. Updated selections have been included.***
Caulfield
Race 1 - I'll be with the Moody horse here in Belle Of The Court. She's only had the 1 race start but she won by 3.3 lengths and ran good time. Although she has the outside gate, I am fairly confident that Nolan will be able to easily get her to the front and take up the running. She should be able to control the race and boot clear. With only 6 runners I won't give any other hopes as I might as well name the field!
Race 2 - I'm very cautious about this race. I have settled on Masthead but won't be taking stupid odds. The thing in this guy's favour is that he has form around Sepoy and his close up 2nd to Foxwedge links him with Helmet and Manawanui. The barrier is a bit of a concern but I think Williams can get him in midfield. He should be running home strong. Other hopes to Galah, Highly Recommended and Cross Of Gold.
Race 3 - I'm going for Dowager Queen based on the fact that I think it's proven itself more and definitely has more race experience than it's rivals. This filly likes the sting out of the track which I think she'll get here. Being a Savabeel and going on her run on last start, the 2000m shouldn't pose any problems. Other hopes to Roma Giaconda, Quench The Thirst and Fallen One.
Race 4 - I liked the run of Sangster in the Group 1 Spring Champion last start where it was found that the horse really responded to being ridden back. I think with a reasonable pace here, they'll adopt the same tactics and it will work a treat. I also think that race is a lot stronger form race than the UCI which a lot of these went around in last start. Can handle any conditions. Will go well. Other hopes to Isopach, Costly Commitment and Zabeelionaire.
Race 5 - I'd really like to see the Buff beat Sepoy here but realistically I can't see it happening. Sepoy is a deadset champion and ticks every box except for the restrictive price. To fill the minors: Buffering, Mid Summer Music and Curtana.
Race 6 - I like the look of Varena Miss down in the weights. I liked the look of her 1st up run down the straight. Thought there might be a reasonable pace in this race and she should be able to camp just off the speed and unleash a finish. She likes the track and any sting out will only assist. 2nd up record is good. Other hopes to Love Conquers All, Hurtle Myrtle and Launay.
Race 7 - Going with Midnight Martini. This horse is also nominated for the Caulfield Cup but being 4th emergency, I can't see it getting a run. I think this race is right up it's alley. Last start she ran 1.9 lengths off Shewan who I thought was quite impressive. This race is 400m less which I think will suit even better. Other hopes to Platinum Passion, Paddy O'Reilly and Base.
*Updated Selection: Drop the scratched Paddy O'Reilly and replace with Red Colossus.*
Race 8 - The Caulfield Cup. I would really like Lucas Cranach to win this as like many of you, I have a nice payout due if he gets up. However I think his race is the Melbourne Cup given his average 1st up record. I'll be going the way of December Draw. I have been a little suss on it in it's recent runs that it would get the distance. Well I think it proved me wrong and it should get the right run to come over this field. I get the feeling that Kavanagh is super confident about it's chances but not outwardly showing it. Much like he did with Atlantic Jewel earlier this week. However I must say I find the price on offer very offensive and will probably not back it unless it gets out a bit. Unlikely I know. Other hopes to Lucas Cranach, Southern Speed and Manighar.
Race 9 - More Joyous is the obvious selection here. She loves the track and distance, super 2nd up record and can handle any going. Clearly the horse to beat. Other hopes to Sister Madly, Response and Born To Rock.
Race 10 - For a long time I thought that Rue Maple was very close to a win. I think this is her race. She drops back from a Group 1 where she ran 7.3 lengths off Sepoy. Any sting out of the track would really help her cause. I just hope she's not a professional place getter. Other hopes to Satin Shoes, Psychologist and Amy's Glen.
Randwick
Race 1 - I won't be getting carried away here with a field of 7. Going with Nocturnelle as I think she looks the most capable of running 1400m. Her form is quite good and recently won a trial. Other hopes to Mabsam, Eyes On Guard and Tumble Turn.
Race 2 - 14 2 year olds go around here with only 3 horses having a race start. I would be treading very warily here. I'll be sitting this 1 out but based on it's 1st up run Rusambo would be the way I'd go. Did enough to suggest it's capable of winning. Other hopes to Dear Demi, Knoydart and Lord Duveen.
*Updated Selections: Replace Dear Demi with Amorino*
Race 3 - Fairly happy to take Foxstar here. In an inconsistent bunch, she looks the most consistent. Has a great record at the journey and her past 2 back from a spell have been quite good. Other hopes to Merchandise, Upon and Landlocked.
Race 4 - This looks a very good race on paper with a number of chances. I settled on Hot Snitzel. It has a good 1st up record and has raced in some quality races. Think they can get him in just off the speed which should be good and then come home. Other hopes to Uate, Mahisara and Ying La.
Race 5 - To me, this looks a tough race. However I've gone with Tigress Lily. This horse is probably better over longer trips but 1st up will be able to handle the 1200m. Looking back through it's previous starts, it has run close to Red Tracer and Sincero. That looks good enough form for this. Other hopes to Myalla Gold, Lohengrin and Champing.
Race 6 - I really liked the run of King Gladiator last start. He's 1st emergency here and if he gets a run, you'd have to consider him a winning chance. He was steaming home so the 2400m should pose no problems. Assuming he doesn't run, I'll go with Ironstein. His previous few runs have been fairly solid and will place him well for this. Other hopes to Teardrop Rock, Gazza Guru and Syreon.
Race 7 - This race looks there for the taking for the Snowden pair, Kanzan and Mascareri. I settled on Kanzan as I just feel it has a bit more class. Also it's a 2nd up specialist. Think it can be relatively handy and come home over the top of these. Other hopes to Mascareri, Ofcourseican and Phenomenal Lass.
Race 8 - Going with Metallurgical in the last. This horse really came on last prep in Brisbane where it ran close 2nds to Pinwheel and Essington. This may be a bit too short but one thing is fairly certain, it will be finishing off hard. With the speed on, that could play into it's favour. Other hopes to Winter King, Rarefied and Ego's Dare.
Eagle Farm
Race 1 - We open with a race for mostly untested 2 year olds. Perhaps the best thing to do here is take a longer lunch. Having said that, I would lean to Snipzu based on it's 2nd in the Gimcrack. You would think that sort of form would hold up well here. Other hopes to Husseza, Discreet and Flying Lamborgini.
Race 2 - I really don't like this race. Too many questions, not enough answers. Firstly, what will the weather be like at this time of the day? Secondly, will Tafeer, Paris Blu and Night Escort cut each other up in front? I haven't been able to settle on a winner so here are the contenders Koranovsky, Paris Blu, Tafeer and Marsh Harbour.
Race 3 - I'm going for Dowager Queen based on the fact that I think it's proven itself more and definitely has more race experience than it's rivals. This filly likes the sting out of the track which I think she'll get here. Being a Savabeel and going on her run on last start, the 2000m shouldn't pose any problems. Other hopes to Roma Giaconda, Quench The Thirst and Fallen One.
Race 4 - I liked the run of Sangster in the Group 1 Spring Champion last start where it was found that the horse really responded to being ridden back. I think with a reasonable pace here, they'll adopt the same tactics and it will work a treat. I also think that race is a lot stronger form race than the UCI which a lot of these went around in last start. Can handle any conditions. Will go well. Other hopes to Isopach, Costly Commitment and Zabeelionaire.
Race 5 - I'd really like to see the Buff beat Sepoy here but realistically I can't see it happening. Sepoy is a deadset champion and ticks every box except for the restrictive price. To fill the minors: Buffering, Mid Summer Music and Curtana.
Race 6 - I like the look of Varena Miss down in the weights. I liked the look of her 1st up run down the straight. Thought there might be a reasonable pace in this race and she should be able to camp just off the speed and unleash a finish. She likes the track and any sting out will only assist. 2nd up record is good. Other hopes to Love Conquers All, Hurtle Myrtle and Launay.
Race 7 - Going with Midnight Martini. This horse is also nominated for the Caulfield Cup but being 4th emergency, I can't see it getting a run. I think this race is right up it's alley. Last start she ran 1.9 lengths off Shewan who I thought was quite impressive. This race is 400m less which I think will suit even better. Other hopes to Platinum Passion, Paddy O'Reilly and Base.
*Updated Selection: Drop the scratched Paddy O'Reilly and replace with Red Colossus.*
Race 8 - The Caulfield Cup. I would really like Lucas Cranach to win this as like many of you, I have a nice payout due if he gets up. However I think his race is the Melbourne Cup given his average 1st up record. I'll be going the way of December Draw. I have been a little suss on it in it's recent runs that it would get the distance. Well I think it proved me wrong and it should get the right run to come over this field. I get the feeling that Kavanagh is super confident about it's chances but not outwardly showing it. Much like he did with Atlantic Jewel earlier this week. However I must say I find the price on offer very offensive and will probably not back it unless it gets out a bit. Unlikely I know. Other hopes to Lucas Cranach, Southern Speed and Manighar.
Race 9 - More Joyous is the obvious selection here. She loves the track and distance, super 2nd up record and can handle any going. Clearly the horse to beat. Other hopes to Sister Madly, Response and Born To Rock.
Race 10 - For a long time I thought that Rue Maple was very close to a win. I think this is her race. She drops back from a Group 1 where she ran 7.3 lengths off Sepoy. Any sting out of the track would really help her cause. I just hope she's not a professional place getter. Other hopes to Satin Shoes, Psychologist and Amy's Glen.
Randwick
Race 1 - I won't be getting carried away here with a field of 7. Going with Nocturnelle as I think she looks the most capable of running 1400m. Her form is quite good and recently won a trial. Other hopes to Mabsam, Eyes On Guard and Tumble Turn.
Race 2 - 14 2 year olds go around here with only 3 horses having a race start. I would be treading very warily here. I'll be sitting this 1 out but based on it's 1st up run Rusambo would be the way I'd go. Did enough to suggest it's capable of winning. Other hopes to Dear Demi, Knoydart and Lord Duveen.
*Updated Selections: Replace Dear Demi with Amorino*
Race 3 - Fairly happy to take Foxstar here. In an inconsistent bunch, she looks the most consistent. Has a great record at the journey and her past 2 back from a spell have been quite good. Other hopes to Merchandise, Upon and Landlocked.
Race 4 - This looks a very good race on paper with a number of chances. I settled on Hot Snitzel. It has a good 1st up record and has raced in some quality races. Think they can get him in just off the speed which should be good and then come home. Other hopes to Uate, Mahisara and Ying La.
Race 5 - To me, this looks a tough race. However I've gone with Tigress Lily. This horse is probably better over longer trips but 1st up will be able to handle the 1200m. Looking back through it's previous starts, it has run close to Red Tracer and Sincero. That looks good enough form for this. Other hopes to Myalla Gold, Lohengrin and Champing.
Race 6 - I really liked the run of King Gladiator last start. He's 1st emergency here and if he gets a run, you'd have to consider him a winning chance. He was steaming home so the 2400m should pose no problems. Assuming he doesn't run, I'll go with Ironstein. His previous few runs have been fairly solid and will place him well for this. Other hopes to Teardrop Rock, Gazza Guru and Syreon.
Race 7 - This race looks there for the taking for the Snowden pair, Kanzan and Mascareri. I settled on Kanzan as I just feel it has a bit more class. Also it's a 2nd up specialist. Think it can be relatively handy and come home over the top of these. Other hopes to Mascareri, Ofcourseican and Phenomenal Lass.
Race 8 - Going with Metallurgical in the last. This horse really came on last prep in Brisbane where it ran close 2nds to Pinwheel and Essington. This may be a bit too short but one thing is fairly certain, it will be finishing off hard. With the speed on, that could play into it's favour. Other hopes to Winter King, Rarefied and Ego's Dare.
Eagle Farm
Race 1 - We open with a race for mostly untested 2 year olds. Perhaps the best thing to do here is take a longer lunch. Having said that, I would lean to Snipzu based on it's 2nd in the Gimcrack. You would think that sort of form would hold up well here. Other hopes to Husseza, Discreet and Flying Lamborgini.
Race 2 - I really don't like this race. Too many questions, not enough answers. Firstly, what will the weather be like at this time of the day? Secondly, will Tafeer, Paris Blu and Night Escort cut each other up in front? I haven't been able to settle on a winner so here are the contenders Koranovsky, Paris Blu, Tafeer and Marsh Harbour.
***Updated selections: Tafeer, Paris Blu and Count Your Fingers***
Race 3 - I think Our Design will be hard to toss here. She's coming off a 4.8 length midweek win and ran a close 2nd to Strip Show the start prior. Should be able to get a cushy run. Other hopes to Massuri, Manzano and Pretty Pins.
Race 4 - We came agonisingly close last start with Red God and I'm quite confident he can repay our loyalty here. He looks primed and loves this track and distance. A bit of dampness won't harm his chances. Other hopes to Ausworld, Whispering Gap and Penny Louise.
***Updated Selections: Red God, Ausworld, Whispering Gap and They Won't Last***
Race 5 - Il Cardinale isn't just knocking on the door for a win, he's ready to kick the bastard in! He's gone down by 0.2 of a length in his past 2 starts and looks primed for this. He likes this distance and shouldn't be bothered if the track becomes wet. Other hopes to Southern Shimmer, Preacher Boy and Landuncan.
***Updated Selections: Il Cardinale, Southern Shimmer, Preacher Boy and The Clandy Man Can***
Race 6 - How these settle down after the start is anyone's guess. Plenty of horses that like to lead which could set it up for something coming from behind, doggy style. One such horse is Double Image. Although drawn towards the outside, Taylor should have no problem getting the horse across to a nice position thanks to the hefty pace on up front. It has a great record especially on a slow track which is more than likely by this time of the day. Other hopes to County Sheriff, Hidden Shuffle and Prime Cognac.
***Updated Selections: Prime Cognac, Hidden Shuffle, Karanja and County Sheriff***
Race 7 - Going with Redessi here. He was ordinary 2nd up but his record shows that's nothing unusual. I think he's looking for this distance and has shown ability to handle a wet track. Other hopes to Dux Bellorum, Prost and Brigadoon Jack/Santo De Lago.
***Updated Selections: Don't bother!***
Race 8 - We have to stick with Falino after that rousing finish for Silk supporters last start. He should be able to camp just off the speed and once again unleash a powerful finish. He has shown ability to get through wet going in the past. Right in this. Other hopes to Lifebuoy, Bazooka and Sheedy. As you can see from my other hopes, a blow out could be on the cards.
Best Bets
Caulfield - Race 4 Number 3 Sangster
Race 6 Number 14 Vareena Miss
Race 9 Number 1 More Joyous
Eagle Farm - Race 4 Number 8 Red God
Race 5 Number 2 Il Cardinale
Race 8 Number 2 Falino
Randwick - Race 3 Number 5 Foxstar
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