01/11/11 - Melbourne Cup Day Selections

G'day punters.  Well the race that stops a nation is here for 2011.  This year's edition of the Melbourne Cup on paper has all the makings of a great race.  I've worked my selections on a dead track.  I've had a look at all races on the Flemington card and included a few of the better bets for Eagle Farm for those of my friends heading there.  Lucky buggers!  Best of luck to everyone.


Flemington

Race 1 - I won't be getting involved in this race for a couple of reasons.  Firstly a 9.20am (QLD time) is a bit early for my liking and secondly there's a field of 16 largely unraced 2 year olds.  If you're a mad fella and loves a challenge then I'd work around Alezan Thunder, Languish, Flirtatious, Princeton Miss, Applegate and Big Chill.  Save your money for later on. 

Race 2 - Going with Influential Miss here.  It won this race last year 3rd up which is the same scenario it finds itself in this year.  Thought it's last run in the Vase was quite good.  Weighted more favourably than it's rivals.  Other hopes to Foxstar, Cold Steel Rein and Smoulder.

Race 3 - Much has been made of the Geelong Cup form in relation to the Melbourne Cup.  In particular GC winner Dunaden which is one of the better fancies in the MC.  So Perfect Pecs 2 length 5th in the GC has to place it in contention for this open race.  It's down in the weights and likes the sting out of the track.  Should get a nice run in the race.  Other hopes to Adroitly, Excluded and Western Symbol.

Race 4 - Pretty keen on Neriani.  Plenty in her favour.  Last run was enormous behind Hi Belle where she drew out wide.  Gets an alley in close here.  Good record over the distance and likes the sting out.  Other hopes to Hinemoa, Little Surfer Girl and Pontiana. 

Race 5 - Karuta Queen looks very hard to beat.  I would imagine she will dictate terms in front and I'm not sure this lot can run her down.  Especially how well weighted she is compared to the rest.  The only downside I can see is the price currently on offer.  $1.50 isn't enticing.  Other hopes to African Pulse and Hollyweird.

Race 6 - Could be a reasonable tempo in this race with a number of horses engaged that like to lead.  For that reason, I'm going for Combat Kitty.  She's shown that she can really finish off a race and on the big Flemington track that should suit her well.  She comes from the in form Matt Smith stable and has the champion Damian Oliver on top.  Other hopes to The Fairy's Kiss, Mabsam and Disputes.

Race 7 - The Melbourne Cup.  You could make a case for most of the field and I wouldn't be discouraging you if you like 1 that I don't mention.  Traditionally foreign horses that are having their 1st start in Australia run poorly.  Add that fact with a foreign jockey and it gets worse.  Maybe it's a bad move on my behalf but I've eliminated any horse fitting that bill from my chances.  

 

Like many of the twitter racing community, I've had money on Lucas Cranach for some time now.  I don't see a reason to get off now.  I commented before his Caulfield Cup run that he'd better for the run and it was the Melbourne Cup that I was looking for him to be at his best.  This was due to his 2nd up form.  I thought his Caulfield 5th was a great run.  He came from 15th at the 800m to finish 3 lengths off the winner.  I respect the Freedman's and in particular Lee.  For him to make this horse his personal project for the past few months suggests to me that he thinks a hell of a lot of the horse.  I reckon this horse won't know itself with 53.5kg.  From Cup winning jockey Corey Brown should be able to give the horse a winning chance.  


Other hopes that I'll be including in my trifecta and First 4 bets are Dunaden, Niwot, Americain, Mourayan and At First Sight.  Good luck!

***With the scratching of Mourayan, I'd like to add Bauer but hey we don't have emergencies for the cup.  So I'll add Unusual Suspect to the hopes***
Race 8 - I have Lamasery well on top here.  Perfect record at the distance, goes best with the sting out of the ground and I would argue is clearly the best horse in the race.  The only concern for me is how well he has come back from the problems he suffered after the Metrop.  Other hopes to Lone Command, Set The Course and God Has Spoken.


Race 9 - Wow where do I start?  20 horses down the straight.  Luck is going to play a big role here. At least we can be happy that whatever horse we back, there's going to be tremendous value.  As hard it is to pick a winner here, I think the winner will be coming from the back of the field due to the solid speed.  For that reason, I'll be going with Perturbo.  Goes well at the track and distance and has some solid form coming into this.  Other hopes are every other runner in the field.

***With the scratching of Perturbo, I'll get behind Parables ***
Race 10 - Quite keen on the chances of Too Deadly in the last.  Comes off a 1st up 2.8 length 5th to Testa My Patience.  Reckon that's fantastic form for this.  It's 2nd up record suggests it will be primed for a result.  Other hopes Studley Park, Under The Eiffel and Bagman.  


Best Bets


Flemington - Race 4 Number 14 Neriani
                  Race 5 Number 2 Karuta Queen
                  Race 8 Number 4 Lamasery
                  Race 10 Number 14 Too Deadly


Eagle Farm - Race 1 Number 1 Taunt Pauline
                  Race 5 Number 2 Loves A Challenge
                  Race 8 Number 8 Cape Kidnappers

29/10/11 - Flemington, Rosehill and Doomben Selections

G'day punters.  Another super Saturday of racing with four Group 1 races in Melbourne.  The feature race today is the AAMI Victoria Derby.  We will also see a number of Melbourne Cup aspirants in their last ditch attempts to gain entry into Tuesday's field.  Selections have been based on a dead to slow track for Flemington, dead track with leader bias at Rosehill and a dead track for Doomben.  It's currently raining in Melbourne so what condition the track ends up is anyone's guess at this stage.  Good luck!

 

*There's a few updates due to scratchings*

Flemington

Race 1 - Not keen on taking the short odds on offer for Galah but I think he'll be winning the first.  Looked very impressive winning last start and should go right on with it here.  Other hopes to Meethaq, First Course and Cross Of Gold.

Race 2 - Based on it's past 2 runs, it's very hard to go past Green Moon in the Lexus Stakes.  The horse has shown a great deal of fighting spirit in winning the Newcastle Cup and running 2nd in the Caulfield Cup.  Gets a good draw this time which will only enhance it's chances.  Other hopes Moyenne Corniche, Showcause and Niwot.

*With the scratching of Moyenne Corniche, I'll promote Midnight Martini to the other hopes.*

Race 3 - I won't be getting involved in the Wakeful Stakes.  Based on it's past 4 starts, the short priced favourite Atlantic Jewel should be very hard to beat again.  I listen when the little gentleman Michael Rodd says this is the best horse he's ever ridden.  How can you argue with that?  However it's $1.35 currently so it's hardly worth your while backing it.  Other hopes to Dowager Queen, Gliding and Bliss Street.

Race 4 - Another superstar graces the track in the Coolmore Stud Stakes in the form of Sepoy.  Again this will be a race to just watch as he's around the $1.30 mark.  On equal weights, he should be way too strong for the rest of these.  Other hopes to Zamorar, Bear Hero and Foxwedge.

Race 5 - There looks to be a number of horses with fighting chances in the Mackinnon Stakes.  To be honest, I've spent way too much time looking at it and coming up with legitimate reasons why at least 6 horses can win this.  In the end I've gone for Wall Street.  He's draw near the outside but I think they'll settle the horse at the tail of the field.  This tactic worked well in the Cox Plate where he finished off really well.  Admittedly he missed the start which probably made the decision for the jockey.  Still it ran tops.  With a chance of a wet track, I think that suits this horse more so than some others.  Other chances to Midas Touch, Glass Harmonium, Southern Speed and Rekindled Interest.

*With the scratching of Wall Street, I'll promote Midas Touch to my top pick and add Sincero to the other hopes.*
Race 6 - I'm going to stick with Sangster in the Derby.  I backed him in the Norman Robinson and thought that was a terrific run to go down by 0.2 of length.  I felt the jockey went too early on him and with the more experienced Hughie Bowman on board this time, should be right in the finish.  Other hopes to Manawanui, Induna and Niagara.


Race 7 - I've gone with More Joyous here.  She's the class act of this field and is suited at wfa conditions.  It's been said she was below her best last start.  Even if that's the case, she fought on strongly to win over the very much in form Sister Madly.  She is 4 from 4 3rd up.  Other hopes to Response, Mosheen and Dysphonia.


Race 8 - Boy oh boy.  The Salinger looks a tough race with many winning chances.  I have gone for Mid Summer Music.  The track could very well be wet by this stage of the day and this mare loves it wet.  Besides that, her past 2 runs have been close up finishes to Pinker Pinker and Sepoy.  I just think she can get a great run and come home hard.  Other hopes to Temple Of Boom, Sister Madly and Curtana.  


Race 9 - Another tough race to finish the day in Melbourne.  I think Niblick can run a race here.  The horse simply loves the track and distance and can handle the sting out.  It has a great 1st up record and represents a good value down in the weights.  Other hopes to Launay, Thankgodyou'rehere and Woorim.


Rosehill


Race 1 - 7 horse field of 2 year olds.  Staying well away from this!


Race 2 - Hardly a race to get excited about.  Prince Braeman will lead this and could quite possibly go like a cut cat.  His form is horrendous though so he may run out of steam.  I think Lost For Words could be the one here.  The horse looks like it has a bit more to offer than most of these.  However I wouldn't be getting carried away with bets here.  Other hopes to Revolt, Markab and Scouting Wide.


Race 3 - Going for Turn On Sixpence.  It looks value around the $9 mark.  It's well bred, has Jim Cassidy on top and won well last start.  Should get a nice cart into the race.  The drop in weight is a bonus.  Other hopes to Howmuchdoyouloveme, Hendricus and Cindarockinrella.


Race 4 - I like the look of Savannah's Choice in this.  Although she has performed better over longer distances, I think she has more quality than these.  Her 1st up win over 1500m was good and she drops 2kg thanks to the claimer.  Other hopes to Winner Take All, Triple Six and Blurred Vision.


Race 5 - Even with 61kg, Atomic Force should be hard to beat.  The horse has been racing much better quality races than this in Melbourne.  He's proven that he can carry big weights in the past.  Jimmy Cassidy on board helps with the big weight.  Other hopes to Tromso, Phenomenal Lass and Ahdashim.


Race 6 - Going for a Waller runner on the up here in Merchandise.  1st up over 1600m this fellow ran on from last which says that 2000m is ideal now.  Form suggests this is also right up his alley.  With the claim, he only has to cart 52kg.  Other hopes Landlocked, Gopana and Old Bill.


Race 7 - Stratana could get a cheeky lead here and go right on with it if there is any on pace bias.  Won't want the track any worse than dead but has a great record over the distance.  Other hopes to Underthetuscansun, Lohengrin and Champing.


Race 8 - I like the consistency of Coup Ay Tee in the final event.  The horse has never been out of a place in it's 9 starts.  Likes the sting out of the track and has a good record at the track.  Each way, all day.  Other hopes to Riva De Lago, Lightinthenite and Wazn.


Doomben


Race 1 - A race for 2 year olds that I won't be getting involved. 


Race 2 - Like the look of Pretty Pins.  Although the race was run in heavy conditions, her last start win where she gunned down Our Design showed that the step up in distance will suit.  She looks a nice type.  Other hopes to Il Cardinale, On Face Value and Banana Kick.

*With the scratching of Banana Kick, I'll promote From London to the other hopes.*Race 3 - Going with Geblitzt in this.  The horse loves the track and distance.  It has a great 1st up record and put simply looks the best horse in the race.  Other hopes to Mossriver, Imeldamay and Getyourown.


Race 4 - Pretty keen to go with Another Superior.  Last start it won coming home hard over eveything else.  Actually in every start it has flashed home.  The 1350m should really suit this horse.  Jimmy Byrne in the saddle adds to my confidence.  Other hopes to Dorchester, Kelbenjar and Last Gift.


Race 5 - This looks a bit of a tricky race.  I've gone with a former Victorian having it's 1st start in QLD in Marsh Harbour.  Currently around the $12 mark, I think it offers each way value.  2 starts back in ran 2.2 lengths to Zubbaya and I have to think that that is reasonable form for this race.  Other hopes to Eight Pieces, Gunner Knox and Hidden Kisses.


Race 6 - This looks a very nice race for Rundle.  The way he won well over 1800m last start suggests the 2000m here is right up his alley.  The former Victorian just seems a better quality horse than the rest of these which isn't that hard.  Other hopes to Timetable, Russian Jar and Red God.  

*With the scratching of Russian Jar, I'll add Our Recidivist to the other hopes.*Race 7 - I think Cavaliered looks well placed here.  The horse is resuming and has good 1st up form.  I think there could be a bit of speed on here and this bloke loves charging home so that will suit.  He ran in much better quality races than this in his last campaign.  Byrne steering with 53kg.  Other hopes to Theft, General Shareef and Prime Cognac.  

*With the scratching of General Shareef, I'll add Pegunny Cat to the other hopes.*Race 8 - Originally I thought Faster Son would be the one to beat here but I can see the pace being on in this and he's gone like a scalded cat in his recent efforts and run out of gas.  Because of the pace I've gone with Joint Chiefs.  This chap will get back and come home with an almighty run.  He loves this track and distance.  Other hopes to What Happenedhenry, Faster Son and G'day Old Mate.


Best Bets 


Flemington - Race 2 Number 3 Green Moon
                  Race 6 Number 5 Sangster e/w
                
Rosehill - Race 4 Number 2 Savannah's Choice
             Race 6 Number 9 Merchandise 


Doomben - Race 2 Number 10 Pretty Pins
               Race 3 Number 2 Geblitzt
               Race 4 Number 3 Another Superior
               Race 6 Number 6 Rundle
               

22/10/11 - Saturday Round Up

Well let me start off by saying that it's nice to be back in the winner's lounge.  The Silk had a successful Cox Plate day, selecting 10 winners and  7 placings from the 24 races looked at.  Special mention must go to one of my best mates and Silk supporter John Wilson.  Johnny's a new comer to the punting game so it was nice to see the young fella clean up.  Look out bookies at next year's Ipswich Cup! 

The Eagle Farm meeting was easily the best result for Silk followers which was surprising considering I wasn't overly confident about the meeting.  Four winners and three 2nd's were achieved with two of the 2nd's going within a whisker of winning.  The trifecta was found in race 4 which paid $285.10.

At Rosehill, three winners and a 2nd were found.  The trifecta was also found in race 2 which paid $122.70.  Three winners were found at Moonee Valley along with 3 placegetters.  However we won't get carried away with selecting Manawanui and Black Caviar!  Trifectas were found in race 2 paying $201.30, race 3 paying $56.50 and race 6 paying $47.40. 

The following is a list of how the top selections went:

22/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 1	- Streets Away		1st	$5.50	$1.80
22/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 2	- Snipzu		1st	$1.30	$1.10
22/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 3	- Racing Heart		2nd		$1.70
22/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 4	- In a Storm		Unplcd
22/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 5	- Seek And Find		1st	$5.30	$2.00
22/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 6	- Rosagaze		2nd		$2.50
22/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 7	- Fillydelphia		2nd		$1.60
22/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 8	- Havatryst		1st	$3.40	$1.70
22/10/11	Moonee Valley	Race 1	- Rise to the Top		Unplcd
22/10/11	Moonee Valley	Race 2	- Classic Elle		3rd		$1.50
22/10/11	Moonee Valley	Race 3	- Miss Stellabelle		2nd		$1.90
22/10/11	Moonee Valley	Race 4	- Manawanui		1st	$1.20	$1.10
22/10/11	Moonee Valley	Race 5	- Black Caviar		1st	$1.04
22/10/11	Moonee Valley	Race 6	- Americain		1st	$3.50	$1.80
22/10/11	Moonee Valley	Race 7	- Ginga Dude		Unplcd
22/10/11	Moonee Valley	Race 8	- King's Rose		Unplcd
22/10/11	Moonee Valley	Race 9	- Lady Lynette		3rd		$1.80
22/10/11	Rosehill	Race 2	- Dances On Stars		2nd		$1.40
22/10/11	Rosehill	Race 3	- Dailika		Unplcd
22/10/11	Rosehill	Race 4	- Mental		1st	$4.60	$1.70
22/10/11	Rosehill	Race 5	- Kaunda		Unplcd
22/10/11	Rosehill	Race 6	- Somepin Anypin		1st	$1.70	$1.20
22/10/11	Rosehill	Race 7	- Lone Command		1st	$4.50	$1.90
22/10/11	Rosehill	Race 8	- Rosie's Reward		2nd		$1.80

22/10/11 - Moonee Valley, Rosehill and Eagle Farm Selections

It's Cox Plate Day and it doesn't get much better than this!  The Cox Plate is the closest thing racing has to a grand final with the coliseum style race track and the gut busting 2040m where everything the horse has will be put on the line.  For dessert, Black Caviar goes for win number 15.  The support acts come from Rosehill and Eagle Farm.  Selections have been worked out based on a dead to slow track for Moonee Valley, a good track for Rosehill and a good to dead track for Eagle Farm.  

Moonee Valley

Race 1 - A tough race to kick things off with a field of 2 year olds with limited or no racing experience.  Definitely not a race I'll be too keen on getting involved in.  I would lean to Rise To The Top.  It ran well in it's debut in Sydney, narrowly going doing to Tatra.  The fact that Portelli has brought it down to Melbourne is a sign that he likes it's chances.  Other hopes to Lamingtons, Red Excitement and Unlucky.

Race 2 - Going to go with Classic Elle here.  She drops 6kg from her last start 2nd.  I think she can camp just off the speed from barrier 4.  Has been thereabouts in all starts and can handle a dead track.  Other hopes to Torah, Bliss Street and Twilighting.

Race 3 - Think their could be a bit of pace on here with Karuta Queen and Beckon vying for the lead.  For that reason, I have gone with Miss Stellabelle.  It should be able to push up from barrier 3 to be just off the speed.  It won it's only start at the track and distance last time in the Group 3 Champagne.  Should go well.  Other hopes to Karuta Queen, Amah Rock and Beckon.

Race 4 - Won't waste much time on the next 2 races.  By rights Manawanui should be way too classy for these.  His run in the Guineas suggests he'll handle the 2040m.  

Race 5 - The queen of the turf Black Caviar should win her 15th start easily.  

Race 6 - I'm a fan of Shewan but I have my doubts due to the 57kg it has to carry.  Especially when you compare it to Americain who is last year's Geelong and Melbourne Cup winner and carries 58kg.  That's the way I'm going.  I just think it has a little bit of class on these and is weighted well.  Won't have a drama with the distance.  Other hopes to Shewan, Illo and Tullamore. 

Race 7 - I like the look of Ginga Dude here.  Should be able to get into a very handy position or even lead from the nice barrier.  Drops to 55.5kg which is a big relief on past races.  Loves the distance and the track and loves the sting out.  Will give a great sight.  Other hopes to Testa My Patience, Luen Yat Forever and Dao Dao.


Race 8 - The Cox Plate.  Glass Harmonium and Helmet should set a reasonable speed here.  I'll be going the way of King's Rose because I think she can be positioned nicely and get all the favours in the run.  She won her only start at the track and is 2 from 2 at the distance.  Her Stocks win here showed that she is an incredible fighter which she'll need to bring in this race.  Can handle and going.  Other hopes to Helmet, Glass Harmonium and Pinker Pinker.


Race 9 - I'm going to put my faith in Lady Lynette in the last.  Prior to her last start failure, she was racing in great heart.  She has won this race the past 2 years and just loves Moonee Valley and this distance.  Other hopes to Hi Belle, Raspberries and More Strawberries.


Rosehill


Race 1 - Definitely won't be getting involved in this 5 horse race.  


Race 2 - I don't like getting involved in untried 2 year old races.  I may make an exception here but only in a small way.  Dances On Stars has had 2 trials for 2 wins at this track.  Has the Pumper in the saddle and should give a good account of itself from the 4 barrier.  Other hopes to Kyoto, Mai Tai Lady and Meidung.


Race 3 - Dailika has been costly to punters.  Today has to be her day.  Otherwise I don't know if she'll ever win again.  Her form recently isn't bad with some close results.  She appears to be a better quality horse than the rest of these and with the 3kg claim really should possy up well and be hard to hold out.  Track and distance stats support this.  Other hopes to Shelters, Blurred Vision and French Rose.


Race 4 - This is a tough race.  I settled for Mental.  Could very well be a horse on the up.  He's won his past 2 starts back from a spell at this distance range. Winkers go on which could really sharpen him up.  Other hopes to Subarc, Cocky Raider and Pampelonne.


Race 5 - By rights Samui Lad along with Honourable Aussie should set a nice clip in front.  This should benefit the run on horses.  For that reason, I've gone with Kaunda.  Cassidy will take the horse to the tail from the wide gate and should be able to unleash a hard finish.  His Cameron run suggests he may have a bit too much for these.  Other hopes to Dance Man, Our Billy Blue and Hard Liquor.


Race 6 - A good quality field has assembled here and there should be no shortage of horses wanting to lead.  Whether they can accomplish this or not is another matter.  I think Cassidy will try to replicate what he did last start with Somepin Anypin and boot clear early.  If the other riders allow this then it could be good night Irene.  I won't be taking the $2 on offer though.  I'll be boxing it up with the other hopes in Erewhon, Renewed Vitality and Skilled.  


Race 7 - Lone Command looks well placed here.  It's coming off 2 runs in Group 2 company where it was within 2 lengths of the winner each time.  The barrier is a concern but I think it can be slotted in midfield and saved for a strong finish.  Other hopes to Al's Gold, Legsman and Bellissimo.


Race 8 - Tough way to finish the day.  Can see a reasonable pace set here from the inside horses.  I'm not too sure how long Seqsational will be able to keep with Rosie's Reward.  Hopefully it finds the lead early and isn't pressured.  The horse has a great record at the distance and also goes well 2nd up.  The 3kg claim is also an added bonus.  Other hopes to Pyrography, Redhandedjill and Torino.


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - I'm not overly confident about this race and won't be getting too involved.  I eventually fell into Streets Away.  He ran well 1st up and has proven himself over further distances than these.  His 2nd up record is sound. I just feel he'll handle the distance better than his rivals.  Other hopes to Mington, Win A Million and Narcelo.  


Race 2 - Snipzu brained them last start and should do the same here.  However the price is too short and also it's a 2 year old race where anything can happen.  Other hopes to Dansonate, Wolfsburg and Finality.


Race 3 - I'm going to stick with Racing Heart here.  The horse is in good form and I think the extra 300m will suit.  Should be able to run over these in the straight.  Other hopes to Chilled, Warrior Within and Eureka.


Race 4 - Very tough race.  There's any number of chances here.  In the end I settled on In A Storm.  I could be pushing friendship here but I think it can push up from the 5 gate and lead.  Whether it has enough in the tank to hold these off is another story but I'm prepared to take that chance with it only having 52.5kg and being double figure odds.  Other hopes to Another Superior, Kelbenjar and Merryanna.


Race 5 - The speed will be on here which should suit Seek And Find who will be able to settle just off it from the peg.  He really should get the gun run.  The horse has a good record over the trip.  Other hopes to Girl Hussler, Haizum and Carry The Clubs.


Race 6 - I would have loved to have seen Rosagaze draw a gate here.  Unfortunately she's in the car park.  Still if the jockey can get her in a position, I think she'll be hard to hold out.  The horse has a lot more to offer than most of these and has built up a nice record.  Postage stamp weight won't hurt either.  Other hopes to Monashee Warrior, From London and Hidden Treasure.


Race 7 - We have to stick with Filldelphia here.  There should be a fair pace set which will enable her to unload a furious finish as she did last start.  She'll get a gun run from the 4.  Other hopes to Celtic Dancer, Cornwall Park and Symposium.  


Race 8 - For crying out loud!  It just doesn't get any easier does it?  Trying to narrow this race down has proven to be quite a task.  I have gone with Havatryst.  It has the good 1st up record and liking for the distance in it's favour.  As well as the quality races it competed in prior to it's spell.  Where it ends up from barrier 11 is a concern but I'm sure Munce will give it the best possible chance.  Other hopes to Redessi, Liesele and Skating On Ice.  Realistically I could have included many more.  


Best Bets


Moonee Valley - Race 3 Number 2 Miss Stellabelle 
                      Race 6 Number 1 Americain 
                      Race 7 Number Ginga Dude
                      Race 8 Number 13 King's Rose e/w


Rosehill - Race 3 Number 1 Dailika
             Race 5 Number 4 Kaunda
             Race 7 Number 5 Lone Command


Eagle Farm - Race 5 Number 10 Seek And Find  
                 Race 7 Number 4 Fillydelphia

15/10/11 - Caulfield, Randwick and Eagle Farm Selections

G'day punters.  Things definitely get serious today with the running of the Caulfield Cup.  Traditionally the race has provided a great insight into the chances of horses leading into the Melbourne Cup. This year won't be any different. Besides Caulfield, we have racing from Randwick and Eagle Farm.  Selections have been based on the conditions being dead for Caulfield and Randwick while Eagle Farm has been based on a wet track.    

***Unfortunately there has been quite a number of scratchings this morning at Eagle Farm due to the heavy rain which has eliminated many of the Silk's selections.  Updated selections have been included.***

Caulfield

Race 1 - I'll be with the Moody horse here in Belle Of The Court.  She's only had the 1 race start but she won by 3.3 lengths and ran good time.  Although she has the outside gate, I am fairly confident that Nolan will be able to easily get her to the front and take up the running.  She should be able to control the race and boot clear.  With only 6 runners I won't give any other hopes as I might as well name the field!

Race 2 - I'm very cautious about this race.  I have settled on Masthead but won't be taking stupid odds.  The thing in this guy's favour is that he has form around Sepoy and his close up 2nd to Foxwedge links him with Helmet and Manawanui.  The barrier is a bit of a concern but I think Williams can get him in midfield.  He should be running home strong.  Other hopes to Galah, Highly Recommended and Cross Of Gold.


Race 3 - I'm going for Dowager Queen based on the fact that I think it's proven itself more and definitely has more race experience than it's rivals.  This filly likes the sting out of the track which I think she'll get here.  Being a Savabeel and going on her run on last start, the 2000m shouldn't pose any problems.  Other hopes to Roma Giaconda, Quench The Thirst and Fallen One.


Race 4 - I liked the run of Sangster in the Group 1 Spring Champion last start where it was found that the horse really responded to being ridden back.  I think with a reasonable pace here, they'll adopt the same tactics and it will work a treat.  I also think that race is a lot stronger form race than the UCI which a lot of these went around in last start.  Can handle any conditions.  Will go well.  Other hopes to Isopach, Costly Commitment and Zabeelionaire.


Race 5 - I'd really like to see the Buff beat Sepoy here but realistically I can't see it happening.  Sepoy is a deadset champion and ticks every box except for the restrictive price.  To fill the minors: Buffering, Mid Summer Music and Curtana.  


Race 6 - I like the look of Varena Miss down in the weights.  I liked the look of her 1st up run down the straight.  Thought there might be a reasonable pace in this race and she should be able to camp just off the speed and unleash a finish.  She likes the track and any sting out will only assist.  2nd up record is good.  Other hopes to Love Conquers All, Hurtle Myrtle and Launay.


Race 7 - Going with Midnight Martini.  This horse is also nominated for the Caulfield Cup but being 4th emergency, I can't see it getting a run.  I think this race is right up it's alley.  Last start she ran 1.9 lengths off Shewan who I thought was quite impressive.  This race is 400m less which I think will suit even better.  Other hopes to Platinum Passion, Paddy O'Reilly and Base.

*Updated Selection: Drop the scratched Paddy O'Reilly and replace with Red Colossus.*


Race 8 - The Caulfield Cup.  I would really like Lucas Cranach to win this as like many of you, I have a nice payout due if he gets up.  However I think his race is the Melbourne Cup given his average 1st up record.  I'll be going the way of December Draw.  I have been a little suss on it in it's recent runs that it would get the distance.  Well I think it proved me wrong and it should get the right run to come over this field.  I get the feeling that Kavanagh is super confident about it's chances but not outwardly showing it.  Much like he did with Atlantic Jewel earlier this week.  However I must say I find the price on offer very offensive and will probably not back it unless it gets out a bit.  Unlikely I know.  Other hopes to Lucas Cranach, Southern Speed and Manighar.  


Race 9 - More Joyous is the obvious selection here.  She loves the track and distance, super 2nd up record and can handle any going.  Clearly the horse to beat.  Other hopes to Sister Madly, Response and Born To Rock.


Race 10 - For a long time I thought that Rue Maple was very close to a win.  I think this is her race.  She drops back from a Group 1 where she ran 7.3 lengths off Sepoy.  Any sting out of the track would really help her cause.  I just hope she's not a professional place getter.  Other hopes to Satin Shoes, Psychologist and Amy's Glen.


Randwick


Race 1 - I won't be getting carried away here with a field of 7.  Going with Nocturnelle as I think she looks the most capable of running 1400m.  Her form is quite good and recently won a trial.  Other hopes to Mabsam, Eyes On Guard and Tumble Turn.


Race 2 - 14 2 year olds go around here with only 3 horses having a race start.  I would be treading very warily here.  I'll be sitting this 1 out but based on it's 1st up run Rusambo would be the way I'd go.  Did enough to suggest it's capable of winning.  Other hopes to Dear Demi, Knoydart and Lord Duveen.

*Updated Selections: Replace Dear Demi with Amorino*


Race 3 - Fairly happy to take Foxstar here.  In an inconsistent bunch, she looks the most consistent.  Has a great record at the journey and her past 2 back from a spell have been quite good.  Other hopes to Merchandise, Upon and Landlocked.


Race 4 - This looks a very good race on paper with a number of chances.  I settled on Hot Snitzel.  It has a good 1st up record and has raced in some quality races.  Think they can get him in just off the speed which should be good and then come home.  Other hopes to Uate, Mahisara and Ying La.


Race 5 - To me, this looks a tough race.  However I've gone with Tigress Lily.  This horse is probably better over longer trips but 1st up will be able to handle the 1200m.  Looking back through it's previous starts, it has run close to Red Tracer and Sincero.  That looks good enough form for this.  Other hopes to Myalla Gold, Lohengrin and Champing.


Race 6 - I really liked the run of King Gladiator last start.  He's 1st emergency here and if he gets a run, you'd have to consider him a winning chance.  He was steaming home so the 2400m should pose no problems.  Assuming he doesn't run, I'll go with Ironstein.  His previous few runs have been fairly solid and will place him well for this.  Other hopes to Teardrop Rock, Gazza Guru and Syreon.  


Race 7 - This race looks there for the taking for the Snowden pair, Kanzan and Mascareri.  I settled on Kanzan as I just feel it has a bit more class.  Also it's a 2nd up specialist.  Think it can be relatively handy and come home over the top of these.  Other hopes to Mascareri, Ofcourseican and Phenomenal Lass.


Race 8 - Going with Metallurgical in the last.  This horse really came on last prep in Brisbane where it ran close 2nds to Pinwheel and Essington.  This may be a bit too short but one thing is fairly certain, it will be finishing off hard.  With the speed on, that could play into it's favour. Other hopes to Winter King, Rarefied and Ego's Dare.


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - We open with a race for mostly untested 2 year olds.  Perhaps the best thing to do here is take a longer lunch.  Having said that, I would lean to Snipzu based on it's 2nd in the Gimcrack.  You would think that sort of form would hold up well here.  Other hopes to Husseza, Discreet and Flying Lamborgini.


Race 2 - I really don't like this race.  Too many questions, not enough answers.  Firstly, what will the weather be like at this time of the day?  Secondly, will Tafeer, Paris Blu and Night Escort cut each other up in front?  I haven't been able to settle on a winner so here are the contenders Koranovsky, Paris Blu, Tafeer and Marsh Harbour.  

***Updated selections: Tafeer, Paris Blu and Count Your Fingers***

Race 3 - I think Our Design will be hard to toss here.  She's coming off a 4.8 length midweek win and ran a close 2nd to Strip Show the start prior.  Should be able to get a cushy run. Other hopes to Massuri, Manzano and Pretty Pins.

Race 4 - We came agonisingly close last start with Red God and I'm quite confident he can repay our loyalty here.  He looks primed and loves this track and distance.  A bit of dampness won't harm his chances.  Other hopes to Ausworld, Whispering Gap and Penny Louise.

***Updated Selections: Red God, Ausworld, Whispering Gap and They Won't Last***

Race 5 - Il Cardinale isn't just knocking on the door for a win, he's ready to kick the bastard in!  He's gone down by 0.2 of a length in his past 2 starts and looks primed for this.  He likes this distance and shouldn't be bothered if the track becomes wet.  Other hopes to Southern Shimmer, Preacher Boy and Landuncan.

***Updated Selections: Il Cardinale, Southern Shimmer, Preacher Boy and The Clandy Man Can***

Race 6 - How these settle down after the start is anyone's guess.  Plenty of horses that like to lead which could set it up for something coming from behind, doggy style.  One such horse is Double Image.  Although drawn towards the outside, Taylor should have no problem getting the horse across to a nice position thanks to the hefty pace on up front.  It has a great record especially on a slow track which is more than likely by this time of the day.  Other hopes to County Sheriff, Hidden Shuffle and Prime Cognac.  

***Updated Selections: Prime Cognac, Hidden Shuffle, Karanja and County Sheriff***

Race 7 - Going with Redessi here.  He was ordinary 2nd up but his record shows that's nothing unusual.  I think he's looking for this distance and has shown ability to handle a wet track.  Other hopes to Dux Bellorum, Prost and Brigadoon Jack/Santo De Lago.

***Updated Selections: Don't bother!***

Race 8 - We have to stick with Falino after that rousing finish for Silk supporters last start.  He should be able to camp just off the speed and once again unleash a powerful finish.  He has shown ability to get through wet going in the past.  Right in this.  Other hopes to Lifebuoy, Bazooka and Sheedy.  As you can see from my other hopes, a blow out could be on the cards.  

Best Bets 

Caulfield - Race 4 Number 3 Sangster

              Race 6 Number 14 Vareena Miss

              Race 9 Number 1 More Joyous

Eagle Farm - Race 4 Number 8 Red God

                  Race 5 Number 2 Il Cardinale

                  Race 8 Number 2 Falino 

Randwick - Race 3 Number 5 Foxstar 

The Wash Up - 08/10/11

It's been some time since The Silk had a decent weekend.  Last Saturday 12 winners and 2 seconds were found from the races looked at.  Our 3 best bets for Eagle Farm all saluted which was pleasing. We found 5 winners in both Melbourne and Brisbane.  If only we could have found more than 2 in Sydney!  Hopefully The Silk is back in form and we can continue to have a good Spring Carnival.  I believe the likes of Shewan, Helmet and Testa My Patience will all be winning for Silk supporters in the near future.  Here are the results of the top selections: 

08/10/11	Caulfield	Race 1	- Revitalise		Unplcd
08/10/11	Caulfield	Race 2	- Platelet		1st	$4.40	$1.60
08/10/11	Caulfield	Race 3	- Shewan		1st	$4.10	$1.90
08/10/11	Caulfield	Race 4	- Black Caviar		1st	$1.20	$1.04
08/10/11	Caulfield	Race 5	- Lion Tamer		Unplcd
08/10/11	Caulfield	Race 6	- King's Rose		2nd		$2.00
08/10/11	Caulfield	Race 7	- Helmet		1st	$2.10	$1.20
08/10/11	Caulfield	Race 8	- Valentine Miss		Unplcd
08/10/11	Caulfield	Race 9	- Testa My Patience		1st	$3.00	$1.70
08/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 1	- Kelbenjar		Unplcd
08/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 2	- Noogoora Burr		1st	$3.30	$1.60
08/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 4	- Fillydelphia		1st	$2.80	$1.80
08/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 5	- Scarlett Jo		1st	$3.10	$1.80
08/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 6	- Racing Heart		1st	$2.20	$1.40
08/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 7	- Lucky Dubai		1st	$3.80	$1.80
08/10/11	Eagle Farm	Race 8	- God's Window		Unplcd
08/10/11	Rosehill	Race 2	- Tatra		1st	$1.80	$1.20
08/10/11	Rosehill	Race 3	- Dystopia		1st	$4.50	$1.70
08/10/11	Rosehill	Race 4	- King Gladiator		2nd		$1.90
08/10/11	Rosehill	Race 5	- Lightinthenite		Unplcd
08/10/11	Rosehill	Race 6	- Shannara		Unplcd
08/10/11	Rosehill	Race 7	- Upon		Unplcd

08/10/11 Rosehill     Race 8 - Pureness                  Unplcd

08/10/11 - Caulfield, Rosehill and Eagle Farm

G'day punters.  How'd you pull up after last weekend's bonanza of sport and racing?  This Saturday promises to be a great day with the highlights being the Caulfield Guineas and the return of super horse, Black Caviar.  I'm salivating at the thought right now!  Delicious.  I've worked on a dead track for Caulfield with a sneaky eye on it getting worse.  A slow track for Rosehill and a dead track for Eagle Farm.  As is always the case, keep an eye on weather conditions and any changes to the track rating.  Anyway let's get stuck into it.

***Updated selections for Eagle Farm.  It's been hosing down for a few hours so I can't see the track being any better than slow.  Heavy would be my guess.***

Caulfield

Race 1 - Early start to the day and I won't be getting involved in this race.  A small field of inexperienced horses has the makings of an upset.  If forced to settle on one, I'd go for Revitalise.  Should be able to get to the lead or be handy.  Has good form around Secret Hills.  Other hopes to American Dream, Adamantium and Whitlam.

Race 2 - Another tricky race in my mind.  Cases could be made for the majority of these so if I decide to have a go, it will be a very small way.  I have gone for Platelet.  Just think it's been more consistent than the rest of these.  Hasn't been out of a place, handles the sting out of the ground and should get into a nice position from the 3 gate.  Form around it is quite good.  Other hopes to Hollyweird, Emerald Downs and Not A Dancer.

Race 3 - Going to stick with Shewan in the Herbert Power Stakes.  The Silk was on him last start where he impressed in a strong finishing 2nd.  The extra 400m should be ideal.  Very consistent type.  Other hopes to Midnight Martini, Tanby and Lucky Eighty Eight.  I could include a few others but you can't name the lot!  In short, it's an open affair.


Race 4 - The Schillaci Stakes sees the return of Black Caviar.  She goes for her 14th straight win and looks way too good.  Watch and marvel.


Race 5 - The Group 1 Caulfield Stakes looks like an interesting affair.  I found it hard to separate Lion Tamer and Mighty High.  In the end I went with last start Underwood winner Lion Tamer.  Thought it's effort was really good and I really like it's runs in last year's Vase and Vic Derby.  Think it gets the right run and will be hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Mighty High, At First Sight and Sincero.  

*New Selections: Lion Tamer, Mighty High, Sincero and Lights Of Heaven.*


Race 6 - I really like the look of King's Rose.  I've been waiting for a month for her to have another run and she gets everything in her favour here.  Her record over the distance is perfect and she handles any going.  Her win last start has been a tremendous form race with 7 out of 8 runners having their next run, winning or running second.  Big show.  Other hopes to Fast Clip, Luen Yat Forever, Woorim and Toorak Toff.


Race 7 - Despite a small field, the Caulfield Guineas looks on paper to be an intriguing affair.  I see Helmet and Smart Missile fighting this out, followed by Manawanui and Chase The Rainbow.  Now splitting Helmet and Smart Missile has proven to be quite a task.  I settled on Helmet.  His win in the Prelude was hard to ignore.  He should be able to set the tempo and will be hard to run down.  Minors filled by Smart Missile, Manawanui and Chase The Rainbow.


Race 8 - I like the look of Valentine Miss here following her nice 2nd behind Sister Madly last start.  Sister Madly franked that form by running 2nd to Sepoy.  This horse is never far off the mark, going down by 2 lengths or less in it's past 5 starts.  Should be right in this.  Other hopes to Miss Octopussy, Lady Mahler and Celts.

*New Selections: Valentine Miss, Lady Mahler, Celts and Gybe.*

Race 9 - Testa My Patience is up to it's eyeballs in this.  It loves the track and distance, can handle any going and has put in 2 top runs since coming back from a spell.  It meets Utah Saints better at the weights from their past battle.  Other hopes to Utah Saints, Studley Park and At The Heads.

*New Selections: Testa My Patience, Utah Saints, At The Heads and Spacecraft.*

Rosehill

Race 1 - I won't get involved in this race.  Too many uncertainties in regards to how these horses will handle a slow track.

Race 2 - A reasonably big field of 2 year olds with all bar 3 having their 1st start.  Not a race I'll be getting involved in.  If pushed to pick 1 then I'd probably go with Tatra.  The only reason would be that it defeated Pierro who won it's 1st start last week.  

Race 3 - Hardly a race to get inspired about.  I'll go with Dystopia but with a minimal amount of confidence.  It goes well 2nd up, handles the wet and has an ok record at the track/distance.  Other hopes to Parriwi, Shamus and Agister.

Race 4 - Going with King Gladiator.  Liked the way he ran on from last to win his 1st up run.  1900m should really suit 2nd up.  In his previous campaign he ran competitively at Group 1 and 2 level.  With 53kg he could be the testing material for these.  Other hopes to Fiscal, Teardrop Rock and Kim Divine.

Race 5 - The odds may be too short to back this fellow but Lightinthenite looks a nice type.  It has won it's 3 race starts well.  Handled the wet going in it's 2nd win.  Other hopes to Hood, From The Vault and Broadcast.

*New Selections: Lightinthenite, Hood, From The Vault and Samui Lad.*

Race 6 - Quite keen on Shannara.  Has a lot in her favour.  Great 2nd up record, handles any going and likes the distance.  Should get a gun run and has some favourable performances in better quality races than this to her credit.  Other hopes to Skyerush, Jalsah and Foxstar.

*New Selections: Shannara, Skyerush, Foxstar and Little Surfer Girl.*

Race 7 - I found this a tricky race to get a hold of.  There's limited speed in the race and also questionable wet track form.  I'm going to take a chance on 1 at big odds from the Joe Pride yard.  Upon is a former Victorian horse that is more accustomed to distances over 2000m.  However it showed a nice finish over 1200m 1st up to suggest that it could be competitive against this bunch.  It has a good 2nd up record and has won on heavy.  At $17 for the win, that will do me.  Other hopes to Tom's Rocket, Rockin' Rocket and Indiscretions.

Race 8 - It took till the final event of the day to find a race of any substance.  Speaking through my pocket, I've had enough of Somepin Anypin.  He's been disappointing his last 2 starts and I'm prepared to pot him here.  Could be a bad move given he's on 53kg.  I'm going with Pureness.  This is the class runner in the race and accordingly will carry 60kg in the wet.  This is a concern.  However I'm prepared to think that this will be offset by it's great 1st up record, great ability in the wet and love of the track and distance.  The horse warmed up for this by beating My Kingdom of Fife and Red Tracer recently in a trial.  I see it as much better value than the favourite.  Other hopes to Somepin Anypin, Erewhon and Monton.

Eagle Farm

Race 1 - I'll put my trust in Emmalene in the opening race.  It's 1st up run and beating of State Of Wealth holds it in good stead here.  The fact Birchley took the horse to Sydney last start suggests to me that he thinks a bit of it.  Barrier 12 shouldn't pose a problem as Cassidy can take her back and unload a powerful finish if he likes.  Other hopes to Playtime, Dorchester and Kelbenjar.

*New Selections: Kelbenjar, Playtime, Emmalene and Dorchester.*

Race 2 - Awesome a 2 year old race of 14 where only 2 runners have had a start.  It's pot luck baby.   No thank you!  If a gun was held to my head, I'd go with Noogoora Burr.  

*New Selection: REALLY stay out of this 1!*

Race 3 - Cool, it's the 2 year old girls turn where only a handful have had a start.  I won't be touching this race.  If you're a lunatic and love to live dangerously, work around Crown Of Coureuse, Durbanite, Social Suicide, Style Music and Write Cheek.   

Race 4 - The testing material here looks to be Listen Son.  He's won 2 trials leading into this and in past races has competed well at Group level.  By rights he should be too classy.  I'd be checking the odds before placing any bets however as you may find it isn't worth your while.  You know risk/reward etc.  Other hopes to Poor Judge, Fillydelphia and Hour Of Peril.

*New Selections: Fillydelphia, Poor Judge,Hour Of Peril and Anchor Bolt*

Race 5 - I'm going with Scarlett Jo.  Quite a few question marks hang over a lot of these and their ability to run 2200m.  Not so with Scarlett Jo.  You just get the feeling she's building up to a win.  She loves a dead surface as well.  Other hopes to Sam's Town, Sunshine Angel and Bitasilk.

*Fairly happy that these will handle the wet.*

Race 6 - I get the feeling this is a race in 2.  Racing Heart and Eastline should be fighting the finish out here.  Going with Racing Heart as the last run from Eastline may leave it a little flat.  Barrier 1, 3rd up and a liking for the sting out of the track all bode well for Racing Heart.  Other hopes are Eastline, Deacon and Topping.

*Wet track brings increased confidence in Racing Heart.*

Race 7 - The withdrawal of Risk Aversion disappoints me greatly.  I was quite keen on it.  However the race is now a wide open affair.  I have gone with Lucky Dubai.  When going through this race I found a lot of the horses I thought had a chance drew badly.  That's not the case with Lucky Dubai.  She loves the track, doesn't mind the sting out and should be charging home.  Other hopes to Koranovsky, Win A Million and Luminous Harmony.  

*New Selections: Lucky Dubai, Win A Million, Vipera Gold and Sailor Sam.*

Race 8 - A 7 length trial win is hard to ignore.  Especially when the horse won a trial by 6.5 lengths last campaign and then won 1st up.  The horse is Audacious Spirit and I'll be hoping a repeat dose is on the cards.  Draws close in so it will be given every opportunity to go off like grandma's undies on a hot day.  Other hopes to Cariad, God's Window, Just Been Lucky and Redessi.

*New Selections: God's Window, Redessi, G'day Old Mate, Charter Boat and Just Been Lucky.*

Best Bets

Caulfield - Race 6 Number 6 King's Rose

                  Race 8 Number 5 Valentine Miss 

                  Race 9 Number 4 Testa My Patience

Rosehill - Race 4 Number 5 King Gladiator

             Race 5 Number 7 Lightinthenite

             Race 6 Number 4 Shannara

             

Eagle Farm - Race 5 Number 4 Scarlett Jo

                  Race 6 Number 2 Racing Heart

                  Race 7 Number Lucky Dubai