G'day punters. Things haven't been fantastic lately for The Silk. Sure, winners have been found but the level of consistency has been poor. I put that down information overload. So from this edition of The Silk, I'll be taking it back to when picking winners seemed an easier task and keeping it simple.
Saturday sees racing coming from Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben. The highlight of the day will be the Group 1 Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield. Track conditions will be good for Rosehill and Doomben. While Caulfield will be no worse than dead. Right let's get into it! Good luck.
Caulfield
Race 1 - I'll be going with Lady Mahler in a competitive first race. Barrier 9 isn't ideal but I think it can get across to sit in behind the leaders. Her last start 2nd in a good race in Sydney bodes her well for this. Other hopes to Neriani, Limerock and Miss Elvee.
Race 2 - Atlantic Jewel was highly impressive last start. I can't see a reason not to stick with her. Sure she has to carry 58kg but I think this is a classy animal and will be able to carry the weight. I think she'll relish the 1400m. Other hopes to Kneeling, Sharnee Rose and Crucial.
Race 3 - Going to take a punt on Carnero being able to hang on for a win here. It's never won beyond 1600m so the 1700m could be on it's limit. However it may be able to get a cushy lead which will enhance it's chances. It's form has been very good lately and in it's losses, it's been no more than 2 lengths off the winner. Other hopes to Extra Zero, Cabeza and Mighty High.
Race 4 - I don't mind the look of Shewan in this race. The 2000m looks ideal. The horse is rarely out of the placings and should get a nice run. Should be cherry ripe in it's 3rd run back from a spell. Other hopes to Lopov, Anudjawun and Ishant.
Race 5 - The Caulfield Guineas is an interesting race. The big question for me is how good is That's The One? I'm thinking he's very good but how does he match up with Helmet. I'll be with him. He's got the runs on the board and was unlucky last start. Weight shouldn't be a problem as he ran fairly close to Smart Missile carrying 59kg. Hoping class prevails. Other hopes to That's The One, Chase The Rainbow and Specter.
Race 6 - The Rupert Clarke Stakes sees a big field go around over 1400m. There looks to be good speed on this race so I've looked for something that will be running on. It was a close call but I settled on Smart Missile. Just think with the light weight, he'll be too hard to hold out. He'll be pushed by Woorim. Other hopes to obviously Woorim, Blackie and Testascana.
Race 7 - Going with Schrapnel here. Is 3 from 3 2nd up, has 3 wins from 4 over the distance and likes a firmer surface. It has a lot in it's favour. Other hopes to First Command, Phelan Ready and Irish Dream.
Race 8 - Midnight Martini gets a more suitable distance here and I think will be hard to hold out. Last start she was 3.8 lengths off King's Rose and was quite unlucky in the run. Should be able to get to a handy spot from the peg or even lead. Other hopes to Little Tycoon, Stole and Zauberin.
Race 5 - The Caulfield Guineas is an interesting race. The big question for me is how good is That's The One? I'm thinking he's very good but how does he match up with Helmet. I'll be with him. He's got the runs on the board and was unlucky last start. Weight shouldn't be a problem as he ran fairly close to Smart Missile carrying 59kg. Hoping class prevails. Other hopes to That's The One, Chase The Rainbow and Specter.
Race 6 - The Rupert Clarke Stakes sees a big field go around over 1400m. There looks to be good speed on this race so I've looked for something that will be running on. It was a close call but I settled on Smart Missile. Just think with the light weight, he'll be too hard to hold out. He'll be pushed by Woorim. Other hopes to obviously Woorim, Blackie and Testascana.
Race 7 - Going with Schrapnel here. Is 3 from 3 2nd up, has 3 wins from 4 over the distance and likes a firmer surface. It has a lot in it's favour. Other hopes to First Command, Phelan Ready and Irish Dream.
Race 8 - Midnight Martini gets a more suitable distance here and I think will be hard to hold out. Last start she was 3.8 lengths off King's Rose and was quite unlucky in the run. Should be able to get to a handy spot from the peg or even lead. Other hopes to Little Tycoon, Stole and Zauberin.
***With the scratchings of Little Tycoon and Zauberin, I'll promote Sister Norma and Model To Nite ***
Rosehill
Race 1 - A very even affair to kick things off. Should get a good price on whatever you back. Going to have a small bet on Kim Divine. I think it's getting out to a suitable distance here and will like the firm surface. In a race of many chances, I thought it was worth a go. Other hopes to Russian Jar, Old Bill and Tamanu Park.
Race 2 - Manawanui. Enough said.
Race 3 - Not overly keen on this race. It's pot luck guessing which of these will handle the 1900m better than rest. I won't be betting but if pushed to pick one then I'd go Morocco.
Race 4 - I'm going to take a chance on one here at odds in Rose Pattern. I'm putting a lot of faith in the fact that David Hayes has brought this horse up from Victoria to run here after only the 1 start. It looked like it would be suited by the step up in distance. Other hopes to Ingham Magic, Shadow West and Disputes.
Race 5 - The problems Somepin Anypin encountered last start are well known. I think he can hit back hard here. Looks to have a class edge over the rest. Other hopes to Indiscretions, Renewed Vitality and Exploitable Doubt.
Race 6 - Secret Admirer looks really tough to beat here. Has come back in terrific nick and looks wound up for this. Beat More Strawberries before a spell over 1600m so 1500m looks idea now. Other hopes to Fast Clip, Torio's Quest and Offenders.
Race 7 - I have Lamasery as a clear top rater here. It was hard not to be impressed with his win last start in the Kingston Town. The big if here is whether he can handle the 2400m and handle it with 57kg. I'm prepared to say he can. Other hopes to Adroitly, Raeburn and Ironstein.
Race 8 - The final race of the day looks a battle between the race fit and the resuming. I'll be going with 1 that has race fitness on it's side albeit the 1 run. That's Ofcourseican. It has a great 2nd up record and also a liking for the track and distance. It will be coming home like a freight train and I think will be able to get over the top of these. Other hopes to Phenomenal Lass, Gybe and Shannara.
Doomben
Race 1 - We have a clear top rater here in a small field. Pretty Pins was highly impressive in it's debut, winning by 3.3 lengths. I expect her to be winning again. Other hopes to Morning Captain and Kahui.
Race 2 - I found this to be a tricky race to work out. A number of horses will be vying for the lead which could set it up for a closer. Having said that I think Alespirit may be able to slot in behind the pace and get a cart into it. It's 1st up record, liking for the track and distance and a small weight will all be in it's favour. Other hopes to Amber's Crown, Carry To Fortune and Lifebuoy.
Race 3 - Shock, horror. The quaddie killer Bootooloo comes up as favourite here in early markets. Surely that's enough pressure on this guy to bring him undone. Unfortunately there isn't much in this race and he has a great chance. I'm going to give Haslington a chance at double figure odds. From the pole, Taylor will be able to give him the gun run. Dropping back in distance is a plus. Should be in the finish. Other hopes to Bootooloo, Miss Cutie and Fleet Riane.
Race 4 - I don't think the 3.5kg weight swing will be enough for Elusive Port to turn the tables on Racing Heart. The way it finished off last time suggests that the further distance will only help and will make it even harder to hold out. Other hopes to They Won't Last, Elusive Port and Topping.
Race 5 - This is a race I'm not overly excited about. I think the form behind Danagaze and Shamardashing puts Sam's Town right in this. Byrne should be able to get this bloke in a nice spot for a strong run home. Not confident but I think it's the best here. Other hopes to Eastline, Flying Touchdown and Loves A Challenge.
Race 6 - Very keen on Risk Aversion. This is an impressive individual and the way it ripped off that finishing burst last start to win was nothing short of mind blowing. It's a clear top rater for me. My advice would be to get on early to get a decent price. Other hopes to Funtantes, Paris Blu and Win A Million.
Race 7 - I'm really not sure about this race. I can't settle on a clear cut winner so I'll just list a few for the multiples in no particular order. Silvern, Cat Eyes, What Happenedhenry and Machination. Fairly confident the winner will come from those 4 but settling on 1 is a different story.
Race 8 - Looks a nice race for Faster Son. He's the quality in this race and gets in with 54kg after the claim. Has a great 1st up record and warmed up for this with a trial win. Loves the track and distance. Should be able to camp just off the speed. It goes in. Other hopes to Redessi, Alberton Park and The Barracks.
Best Bets
Caulfield - Race 2 Number 3 Atlantic Jewel
Race 4 Number 9 Shewan
Race 8 Number 8 Midnight Martini
Rosehil - Race 5 Number 5 Somepin Anypin
Race 6 Number 3 Secret Admirer
Race 7 Number 1 Lamasery
Doomben - Race 1 Number 5 Pretty Pins
Race 6 Number 5 Risk Aversion
Race 8 Number 1 Faster Son
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