Cameron Handicap Day produced a couple of winners for Silk followers. Two of the three best bets in Raspberries ($8.50 Top Fluc) and Morocca ($2.50) saluted. Our 3rd best bet Rekindled Alliance came agonisingly close with a 0.3 length second. In four of the other races, one of the "other chances" won.
We move onto the next day of the Newcastle carnival which is Newcastle Cup Day. There is a slight chance of a morning shower but the track should remain good. Worst case scenario would be a little sting out of it. Enough jibber jabber, let's get into it!
Race 1 - I think Irish Times picks itself here. First thing you notice is that this fellow has raced some decent horses in it's 6 starts. Check it out, 3.5 lengths to Foxwedge, 2.5 lengths to Uate, 5.6 lengths to Manawanui and most recently 3.1 lengths to Ambidexter. With 56kg I think it comes in very well considering it has been racing in group and listed races. There seems to be a few horses who will want to lead which will suit Irish Times just off the pace. The only downside is the price which I doubt will be too tempting. Other hopes to Traffic, Second Draw and Margene.
Race 2 - Here we have a maiden race where there's very little race experience so tread carefully. If pushed to pick one of these on top, I'd lean to Niagara. It ran reasonably well behind Manawanui in it's 1st start and was close up behind Detours in it's 2nd start. Has the winning combination of Waterhouse and Munce. Other hopes to Mental, Herculean and Millenium Ruler. Again I must stress, be very careful betting here!
Race 3 - Another maiden and limited form to go off. However in this maiden there is one that jumps off the page. That's the Snowden trained Disputes. Class wise, this horse is head and shoulders above the rest. It's ran in some quality races against quality opposition such as Hallowell Belle, Satin Shoes, Helmet and Pane In The Glass. In the majority of those races, it's been very close. Barrier 16 is a bit of a worry but you'd think she'll be far too good with only 54kg. Hopefully the bad gate gives us a price we can get on at. Other slim hopes to Nocturnelle, Eyes On Guard and Princess Cassie.
Race 4 - Going with Angelican here. Has the Bart Cummings polish and will be ridden by Hughie Bowman. I think it's looking for the 1600m now and although it's past few races don't look too good at a glance, they weren't totally without merit. Last start it ran 11th but was only 4 lengths off the winner which ran a class record. A class higher than this. Other hopes to Straight Hennessy, Deemed and Many Stars.
*** Update due to scratching of Angelican. I'll promote Straight Hennessy to the top pick and include Lil And Grace to the other hopes. ***
Race 5 - Thought Youthful King looked well placed here. With the claim he will race with 51kg. In the scheme of things, that's a significant over the likes of Youthful Jack and Ollie Vollie. This horse has a great record over the 1200m with 5 wins and 3 minors. Also runs well at the track. I get the feeling that it's building for a win after going down by close margins in it's last 3 runs. Other hopes to Youthful Jack, Midnight At Ascot and War Empress.
Race 6 - After much deliberation I decided to go with the in form horse Sweetest Melody. She's built a cracking record of 7 wins from 11 races and comes into this race following a 1 length win over Red Tracer. Winning form is good form especially when it's a mare. Munce should be able to position her well from gate 5 somewhere near the front. Other hopes to Foxstar, More Strawberries and Aspinal.
Race 7 - The Newcastle Cup. My first thought was that Essence of Success might be able to lead here, set the pace and go on with it. However I don't think that will be the case. It has to come from barrrier 14. Last start it fudged the start and wasn't able to do that from the 9 gate. I'm not saying it can't do it but I think it will have it's work cut out. With the long home straight in mind, I went with The Verminator. This guy has been a model of consistency over this type of distance and comes into this race with a 2.5 length win over a lot of his rivals here in the Wyong Cup. Other hopes to Essence of Success, Green Moon and Tanamu Park.
Race 8 - I'm not overly keen on this race. I'm going with Oakfield Comet. It's won 4 from 7 and goes well at Newcastle. It's undefeated over the 1200m at this track. It has the Pumper Jim Cassidy on board and should be reasonably wound up for a 1st up tilt after a number trials. Other hopes to Dance Man, Malambo and Inherited.
Best Bets
Race 1 Number 2 Irish Times
Race 3 Number 10 Disputes
Race 5 Number 5 Youthful King
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