G'day punters. It's that time of the week again that we all look forward to. This Saturday sees the running of the Makybe Diva Stakes, Danehill Stakes and Let's Elope Stakes at Flemington and the Chelmsford Stakes and Furious Stakes at Warwick Farm. Hopefully we see some quality racing. Selections have been based on dead to good tracks at Flemington and Warwick Farm and a slow to dead track at Eagle Farm. Good luck!
Flemington
Race 1 - Tricky race to kick things off. I've gone with Ervbefel. It's run in some better quality races than this one in it's 4 race start career. It ran on well behind Satin Shoes 1st up and hasn't had much luck when travelling in it's other starts. I think it can be coming over the top of these at the finish. Other hopes: Star Salute, Celebrity Girl and Secret Status.
Race 2 - I'll be assuming that That's The One is a quality racehorse and backing him here. He's undefeated in his first 2 race starts and has been quite impressive. With a few question marks over some of the others in regards to running a solid 1400m, my money will be going this guy's way. The drop in weight is a bonus. Other chances to Jessica Rose, Running Tall and Dontmentionthewar.
Race 3 - I'm quite keen on Utah Saints here. Sing it with me Yeah Yeah Yeah Yeah Utah Saints, Yeah Yeah Yeah Yeah Utah Saints. No? That's ok but hopefully we'll be breaking into that when this fellow wins. From barrier 5, he'll get the run of the race. He ran quite well behind Bel Sprinter 1st up and can only be improved from that run. His runs last campaign were also top shelf and with 53.5kg will be hard to toss. Chances to State Grade (if starts), Niblick, Bullbars and Dreamaway.
Race 4 - Won't waste much time here. Sepoy should prove again what a class act he is. $1.20 makes him an untouchable bet so watch and enjoy. Minor placings filled by Mosheen and Hallowell Belle.
Race 5 - The Let's Elope Stakes looks like a great race on paper. There's at least a handful of chances. I was impressed with the 1st up run of Parables and that's where I'll be going. It was very stiff not to win 1st up when beaten narrowly by Mid Summer Music. Parables will be fitter and has a top 2nd up record. Distance not a problem. Biancon Rose is a horse I rate highly and it wouldn't surprise me if she won. Besides Biancon Rose and Mid Summer Music, I give chances to Keep The Peace and Pinker Pinker.
Race 6 - The Makybe Diva Stakes. Lights Of Heaven looks very hard to beat here. She was a little bit stiff losing narrowly to Whobegotyou 1st up. I'll be honest, I think she's a future star. However unless her odds get out from the current $1.70 on offer, I won't be putting my money on her. Otherwise she ticks all the boxes. I think she will face opposition from Playing God, Glass Harmonium and Prince Obama.
Race 7 - Top field assembled here but I'm sticking with a favourite of ours, Bel Sprinter. This fellow has done nothing wrong in his 4 race starts and seems to step up each time he goes out. He couldn't have been more impressive winning by 3 lengths last start. Chances to Response, Dubleanny, Temple Of Boom and Elusive Touch. I think they might be racing for second.
Race 8 - I'm prepared to say that December Draw is a horse to follow in the coming months. If he is then he should be winning this race. His 1st up run was good where he went down by a bee's to Valley specialist Philda. I think we saw enough when he was last in work to say that the step up to 2000m is ideal. Other hopes include Lakedro, White Universe and My Scotsgrey.
Warwick Farm
Race 1 - I'll be supporting the in form mare Sienna Red. She's won her last two starts and in her latest she beat her rival here Miskish by a length. Miskish has the weight advantage here but I don't think that combined with it's gate will be enough to turn the tables. Sienna Red likes the distance. Other hopes to Thumbtacks and Letchworth.
Race 2 - This is an open race with a mixed bunch. I won't be getting too involved here, if at all. If pushed to select one, I'd be with Tom's Rocket. Has a good record over the distance and can handle any ground. Most horses have a legimate chance of winning.
Race 3 - I think Oakfield Beauty looks to have a class edge over the rest of these and looks to be tremendous value around the $7 mark. She has to carry 58kg but I don't think that's too bad considering the opposition. Her 1st up record is a concern and ideally you want to be on her next start but I think she'll be forward enough from a good trial to win recently. Chances to She's A Rock Star, Moama and Indiscretions.
Race 4 - Quite keen on the chances of the top weight here, Decision Time. This bloke has an impressive record of 7 wins from 12 starts and has been group 1 competitive. He apparently has trialed well leading into this and if he's right, could have way too much class for these. Hopes to Winter King, Obsequious and Zaratone.
Race 5 - The Furious Stakes is a good race and you should get value whatever you back. I'm going with the bullet proof Pane In The Glass. You know you're going to get value for money with this filly and what really swings me to her is the fact she is proven over 1400m and beyond. Some of these I have my doubts about in that regard. A little concerned about the foreign jockey on board but the word is that he's tip top. I give chances to Florentina, Anise and Elite Falls.
Race 6 - The Chelmsford Stakes. I'm going to go with My Kingdom Of Fife based on the excellent efforts it put in last campaign. Waller's had more time to work this guy out since then and I think this is a winnable race first up. Remember his first run in Australia over 1600m when he won at $151? I think Sacred Choice, Startsmeup and Maluckyday can run well.
Race 7 - It took some time to pick between Darci Be Good and Cocky Raider. In the end I went with Cocky Raider. It meets Darci 3 kg's better than when they met last time. It's first up record is good and it warmed up for this with a 4th to Foxwedge in a trial. I think if it's forward enough then it could win this. Chances to Fontelina and Sangster.
Race 8 - A competitive race to finish the Sydney card. We see the return of Stradbroke winner Sincero. He's a classy animal but I'm going for another Stradbroke runner in Thankgodyou'rehere. It's 1st up run wasn't too bad after overcoming some difficulties. His 2nd up record is good and loves the distance. He has a fair weight swing on Sincero and hopefully is a fitter. Chances to Sincero, Secret Admirer and Neeson.
Eagle Farm
Race 1 - It's pretty hard to get enthusiastic about the first race. Unless you're desperate to bet then I'd take a bit longer on lunch. If pushed to pick then I'd go Silvern.
Race 2 - Risk Aversion will be very hard to toss here but I'm going for a 1st up runner for Heathcote in Redessi. This former kiwi was competitive in races in NZ that I would argue are of a better quality than this. His 1st up record is good and he was primed for this with an impressive bit of track work. Other chances to Heart To Fear and Seventh Heart.
Race 3 - Pretty keen on the chances of Eastline here. This bloke has been knocking on the door and gets pretty much everything in his favour. Distance, track condition, weight drop and good jock are all ticks. Other hopes to Sam's Town, Haslington, Random Orbit and Scarlett Jo.
Race 4 - Elusive Port rises in weight here but let's be honest, there's not a lot of opposition so it shouldn't be a problem. Besides he's carried this weight several times to victories in the past. I was told once that you should never be put off by a horse carrying 2-3kg more than any other horse if it's the best horse in the race. That's what Elusive Port is. The price won't be fantastic but if you can $2 then I'd probably jump on that. Throw in Topping, Racing Heart and Rockdale for the minors.
Race 5 - How many chances do you give Denwood? Well I've given him 3 and I think it's time to say enough's enough. That just means that he's now going to win thanks to the curse of Shep. The concern in this race is where the speed will come from and for this reason I'm finding this a very difficult race to work out. I've settled on Black Jag. Just think it can be up on the speed or even sneak a lead. Could prove hard to run down. Last campaign it raced in better quality races and while not overly competitive put in reasonable showings. In an open race other chances to Peppered Black, Trump, The Inventor, God Bless Us and Denwood. Go wide in quaddies.
Race 6 - I've settled on Spechenka. Has to carry 58kg which initially put me off. However I'm not sure there's a lot in this race so weight might not matter. I think it's runs in the Cups recently puts it in a slightly higher class than the rest. Fantastic Blue, King Of The Nile and Secrets Untold the best of the rest.
Race 7 - I think we have to respect the form of Belltone when looking at this race. That's why I'm with Benefaction. It was stiff when beaten under a length by Belltone last start when held up. In keeping with the Belltone form lines, other hopes include River Lad, Narcelo and Wave Dancing.
Race 8 - Gee I really like the look of Koranovsky here. She's been racing in better quality races than this and is weighted pretty well after the claimer. Third run in, I think she's cherry ripe for this. Chances to Gunner Knox, Carry Me Bluey, Blow A Kiss and G'day Old Mate.
Race 9 - Speed kills in the last. Some quick buggers going around here. I'm prepared to back Unflinchingresolve in the last. Although it beat nothing last start, it did win by 4.5 lengths and it's other Brisbane start was alright too. I just feel that it has a bit more to offer than the bulk of this field. Hopes to Bruleur, Alpha Star and Ponzi Scheme.
Best Bets
Flemington - Race 3 Number 16 Utah Saints
Race 6 Number 16 Lights Of Heaven
Race 7 Number 12 Bel Sprinter
Warwick Farm - Race 3 Number 1 Oakfield Beauty e/w
Race 4 Number 1 Decision Time
Race 5 Number 2 Pane In The Glass
Eagle Farm - Race 3 Number 2 Eastline
Race 4 Number 1 Elusive Port (depending on price)
Race 7 Number 9 Benefaction
Race 8 Number 2 Koranovsky e/w
Could be some nice all up opportunities.
Race 2 - This is an open race with a mixed bunch. I won't be getting too involved here, if at all. If pushed to select one, I'd be with Tom's Rocket. Has a good record over the distance and can handle any ground. Most horses have a legimate chance of winning.
Race 3 - I think Oakfield Beauty looks to have a class edge over the rest of these and looks to be tremendous value around the $7 mark. She has to carry 58kg but I don't think that's too bad considering the opposition. Her 1st up record is a concern and ideally you want to be on her next start but I think she'll be forward enough from a good trial to win recently. Chances to She's A Rock Star, Moama and Indiscretions.
Race 4 - Quite keen on the chances of the top weight here, Decision Time. This bloke has an impressive record of 7 wins from 12 starts and has been group 1 competitive. He apparently has trialed well leading into this and if he's right, could have way too much class for these. Hopes to Winter King, Obsequious and Zaratone.
Race 5 - The Furious Stakes is a good race and you should get value whatever you back. I'm going with the bullet proof Pane In The Glass. You know you're going to get value for money with this filly and what really swings me to her is the fact she is proven over 1400m and beyond. Some of these I have my doubts about in that regard. A little concerned about the foreign jockey on board but the word is that he's tip top. I give chances to Florentina, Anise and Elite Falls.
Race 6 - The Chelmsford Stakes. I'm going to go with My Kingdom Of Fife based on the excellent efforts it put in last campaign. Waller's had more time to work this guy out since then and I think this is a winnable race first up. Remember his first run in Australia over 1600m when he won at $151? I think Sacred Choice, Startsmeup and Maluckyday can run well.
Race 7 - It took some time to pick between Darci Be Good and Cocky Raider. In the end I went with Cocky Raider. It meets Darci 3 kg's better than when they met last time. It's first up record is good and it warmed up for this with a 4th to Foxwedge in a trial. I think if it's forward enough then it could win this. Chances to Fontelina and Sangster.
Race 8 - A competitive race to finish the Sydney card. We see the return of Stradbroke winner Sincero. He's a classy animal but I'm going for another Stradbroke runner in Thankgodyou'rehere. It's 1st up run wasn't too bad after overcoming some difficulties. His 2nd up record is good and loves the distance. He has a fair weight swing on Sincero and hopefully is a fitter. Chances to Sincero, Secret Admirer and Neeson.
Eagle Farm
Race 1 - It's pretty hard to get enthusiastic about the first race. Unless you're desperate to bet then I'd take a bit longer on lunch. If pushed to pick then I'd go Silvern.
Race 2 - Risk Aversion will be very hard to toss here but I'm going for a 1st up runner for Heathcote in Redessi. This former kiwi was competitive in races in NZ that I would argue are of a better quality than this. His 1st up record is good and he was primed for this with an impressive bit of track work. Other chances to Heart To Fear and Seventh Heart.
Race 3 - Pretty keen on the chances of Eastline here. This bloke has been knocking on the door and gets pretty much everything in his favour. Distance, track condition, weight drop and good jock are all ticks. Other hopes to Sam's Town, Haslington, Random Orbit and Scarlett Jo.
Race 4 - Elusive Port rises in weight here but let's be honest, there's not a lot of opposition so it shouldn't be a problem. Besides he's carried this weight several times to victories in the past. I was told once that you should never be put off by a horse carrying 2-3kg more than any other horse if it's the best horse in the race. That's what Elusive Port is. The price won't be fantastic but if you can $2 then I'd probably jump on that. Throw in Topping, Racing Heart and Rockdale for the minors.
Race 5 - How many chances do you give Denwood? Well I've given him 3 and I think it's time to say enough's enough. That just means that he's now going to win thanks to the curse of Shep. The concern in this race is where the speed will come from and for this reason I'm finding this a very difficult race to work out. I've settled on Black Jag. Just think it can be up on the speed or even sneak a lead. Could prove hard to run down. Last campaign it raced in better quality races and while not overly competitive put in reasonable showings. In an open race other chances to Peppered Black, Trump, The Inventor, God Bless Us and Denwood. Go wide in quaddies.
Race 6 - I've settled on Spechenka. Has to carry 58kg which initially put me off. However I'm not sure there's a lot in this race so weight might not matter. I think it's runs in the Cups recently puts it in a slightly higher class than the rest. Fantastic Blue, King Of The Nile and Secrets Untold the best of the rest.
Race 7 - I think we have to respect the form of Belltone when looking at this race. That's why I'm with Benefaction. It was stiff when beaten under a length by Belltone last start when held up. In keeping with the Belltone form lines, other hopes include River Lad, Narcelo and Wave Dancing.
Race 8 - Gee I really like the look of Koranovsky here. She's been racing in better quality races than this and is weighted pretty well after the claimer. Third run in, I think she's cherry ripe for this. Chances to Gunner Knox, Carry Me Bluey, Blow A Kiss and G'day Old Mate.
Race 9 - Speed kills in the last. Some quick buggers going around here. I'm prepared to back Unflinchingresolve in the last. Although it beat nothing last start, it did win by 4.5 lengths and it's other Brisbane start was alright too. I just feel that it has a bit more to offer than the bulk of this field. Hopes to Bruleur, Alpha Star and Ponzi Scheme.
Best Bets
Flemington - Race 3 Number 16 Utah Saints
Race 6 Number 16 Lights Of Heaven
Race 7 Number 12 Bel Sprinter
Warwick Farm - Race 3 Number 1 Oakfield Beauty e/w
Race 4 Number 1 Decision Time
Race 5 Number 2 Pane In The Glass
Eagle Farm - Race 3 Number 2 Eastline
Race 4 Number 1 Elusive Port (depending on price)
Race 7 Number 9 Benefaction
Race 8 Number 2 Koranovsky e/w
Could be some nice all up opportunities.
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