After dabbling in the Newcastle Carnival this week, The Silk will return to the more familiar surrounds of Saturday racing. We have a few Group 1 races to whet our appetites. These being the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield and the George Main Stakes at Rosehill. Supporting those is a number of Group 2 and 3 races. You can smell that Spring's in the air! Selections have been based on good tracks for all 3 meetings. With the rail out 10 metres at Caulfield there is a potential bias to on-pacers and inside draws. Good luck!
*** Caulfield has been downgraded overnight after watering to a dead 4 surface. This won't change any of the selections.***
Caulfield
Race 1 - It's a fairly even field of 3 year olds to kick things off here. I'm going with the Hawkes trained runner in Eastward. It has drawn the peg and will likely go forward from there. It won it's 1st start by 4.5 lengths and although the opposition is questionable, braining your rivals by that distance is a decent effort in your 1st race. Other hopes to Platelet, Oamaru Rose and Hot Shoe Shuffln.
Race 2 - Keep coming back to Balavan here. The race looks nicely set up for it. From the 5 gate, Boss should be able to get him easily to the lead. Last start he lead them up and booted clear to account for a couple of handy ones in Gybe and Stratford by 2.5 lengths. Other hopes to Acorn, Facile Tigre and Panipique.
Race 3 - I won't be getting too involved in this race. Seems like a dangerous race to me where anything could win. Having said that I would put Costly Commitment on top. I feel he can be placed quite handy, well a lot closer than normal, from the pegs. It's last start suggested it is looking for further and 1700m should suit at this stage. Other hopes to Pump It, Salter and Apollo Creed.
Race 4 - Zaira should set the pace here from the inside. Zubbaya isn't ideally drawn in 10 but I think she can push across early and take up a nice position. Her return to racing saw her win under 59kg by 1.8 lengths in a nice effort. Dropping to 54kg is a big help. In her previous campaign she beat Absolutely by 3.8 lengths over 1600m. I think she is right in this. Other hopes to Heidilicous, Simply Put and I'm Discreet.
Race 5 - Quite keen on Testa My Patience. This fellow has built up an impressive record thus far, only being out of the placings once from 11 starts. Perfect 2nd up record, loves the track and distance and more importantly had a highly impressive 1st up win. It rattled off a very fast last 600m that many would find hard to top. From gate 5, he should be placed quite handy and be able to rip off another big finish. Other hopes to Rightfully Yours, Berringama and Pinnacles.
Race 6 - We have a very good lineup of 3 year old fillies here in the 1000 Guineas Prelude. How they'll end up after the gates open is anyone's guess. It looks like Kneeling may cross from the outside but that might be difficult with so many pushing forward from the inside. I think Celebrity Girl and Hallowell Belle will be fighting this out. Separating the two over 1400m has been a tough task. Eventually I have settled on Celebrity Girl. She looked most impressive in both her wins and I don't think the distance will hinder her. Has the little gentleman Michael Rodd to ensure she gets a great run. The thing that swayed me to her over Hallowell Belle was the fact that I think the excellent 1 length 2nd to Sepoy may have taken it out of her and Luke Nolan isn't riding her. Other hopes to Mosheen and Kneeling.
***With the scratching of Kneeling I'll promote Metonymy to the hopes***
Race 7 - The Group 1 Underwood Stakes. Well, well, well, what do we have 'ere then? Looks like Lights Of Heaven raising it's head after stinging many a punter last time it ran. I think it will run well but I have Glass Harmonium on top. It's 1st up run in the Makybe was excellent and should be further improved for this. It should be able to get to the lead and hold on for a win. Other hopes to Light Of Heaven, Heart Of Dreams, Lion Tamer and Playing God.
Race 8 - From recent runs, December Draw will again be really tough to beat here. He beat Green Moon by 3.5 lengths last start and that horse came out and ran a bottler of race to win the Newcastle Cup just days ago. December Draw should get itself into a handy position and be too strong for these. Be careful not to take a ridiculously short price. Other hopes to At First Sight, I'm Jake and Lucky Eighty Eight.
Race 9 - Nice race to finish the day with a number of chances. I have settled on Miss Octapussy. I think she can camp just off the speed and get a good run into the race. Her previous 1st up runs have been good and she also has a liking for the track and distance. Other hopes to Anabaa's Legacy, Sister Madly, Lone Rock and Valentine Miss.
Rosehill
Race 1 - The speed will be on in the first over 1100m. Like Nobby Snip here. Think he can jump out and take the lead or be very handy. He warmed up for this with a top trial, running a close 2nd to More Joyous. His 3 race starts have been full of merit and I think this is a horse heading places. Other hopes to Karuta Queen, Startreusse and Al's Magic Miss.
***With the scratching of Kneeling I'll promote Metonymy to the hopes***
Race 7 - The Group 1 Underwood Stakes. Well, well, well, what do we have 'ere then? Looks like Lights Of Heaven raising it's head after stinging many a punter last time it ran. I think it will run well but I have Glass Harmonium on top. It's 1st up run in the Makybe was excellent and should be further improved for this. It should be able to get to the lead and hold on for a win. Other hopes to Light Of Heaven, Heart Of Dreams, Lion Tamer and Playing God.
Race 8 - From recent runs, December Draw will again be really tough to beat here. He beat Green Moon by 3.5 lengths last start and that horse came out and ran a bottler of race to win the Newcastle Cup just days ago. December Draw should get itself into a handy position and be too strong for these. Be careful not to take a ridiculously short price. Other hopes to At First Sight, I'm Jake and Lucky Eighty Eight.
Race 9 - Nice race to finish the day with a number of chances. I have settled on Miss Octapussy. I think she can camp just off the speed and get a good run into the race. Her previous 1st up runs have been good and she also has a liking for the track and distance. Other hopes to Anabaa's Legacy, Sister Madly, Lone Rock and Valentine Miss.
Rosehill
Race 1 - The speed will be on in the first over 1100m. Like Nobby Snip here. Think he can jump out and take the lead or be very handy. He warmed up for this with a top trial, running a close 2nd to More Joyous. His 3 race starts have been full of merit and I think this is a horse heading places. Other hopes to Karuta Queen, Startreusse and Al's Magic Miss.
***With the scratching of Startreusse, I'll promote Hollyweird into the hopes***
Race 2 - I'm a big fan of Thankgodyou'rehere. However I don't think he'll get enough pace in this race to unleash a big finish. By that stage, the horse may have bolted. In this case that horse will be Startsmeup. I think Startsmeup gets a nice sit on the pace. With 53kg, he'll be hard to hold out. Other hopes to Thankgodyou'rehere, Miss Keepsake and Tom's Rocket.
Race 3 - Funny Feeling Friday here. I keep coming back to Sangster. I can see this fellow sitting just off the leader here. My concern is that it might be a sitting duck in the closing stages. However it's a Savabeel so it's bred to handle the distance. It's last start 2nd in the Ming Dynasty was a good effort and the form out of that race has been franked this week's Group 3 Spring Stakes. Other hopes to Cocky Raider, Strike The Stars and Denwood.
Race 4 - This race looks like it's perfectly set up for Tullamore. It's the only horse that will take it forward and I have a feeling that it will get away with deadset murder in front. Rawiller will ride it a treat and give the rest little chance. Other hopes to Trusting and Hawk Island.
Race 5 - The George Main Stakes. I'll be with the superstar Sincero. This guy is having his 1st crack at weight for age and has to carry 58kg. That won't be a problem as he's a proven carrier of big weights. The trainer declared that the horse doesn't need to come from the back and will be more than capable of being handy. I just don't think the rest of these can match his sprint to the line. Other hopes to Ilovethiscity, Sacred Choice and Black Piranha.
Race 6 - The majority of these raced each other in the Furious last start. In that race, Florentina and Streama were allowed to dictate terms in front and duly saluted. They could get the same scenario here. Surely the others have seen the error of their ways and won't allow that to happen again. With that in mind, I'm going with Shared Reflections. Waterhouse always has her 1st uppers in tip top shape so you know this girl will be right for the 1500m. This horse was fairly impressive in it's initial campaign and I'm hoping it has come along during the spell. Other hopes to Pane In The Glass, Streama and Dowager Queen.
Race 7 - Silk followers landed a nice bet last time Decision Time raced. The horse is a professional. He's a horse going places and I don't see any reason to jump ship. Having said that, I'll also be having a sneaky bet on Albert The Fat. This bloke has gone from strength to strength with Waller and by all accounts is primed for a first up showing. It would be rude not to support the Ipswich connections of The Fat! Other hopes to Love Conquers All and Winter King.
Race 8 - A good betting race to finish the card. There's a number of chances here. I can see a reasonable pace being set which would help those coming from the back. Having said that, I'm going with the likely leader in Samui Lad. This horse has a good 1st up record and has been primed for this with a head 2nd to More Joyous in a trial. I get the feeling Waterhouse has set him for this. He has won over 1400m so I think he'll have enough in the tank to hold these off. Other hopes to Dailika, Hood and Upon.
Doomben
Race 1 - God's Window will try to lead from start to finish. If given an easy time then he will do it. However when he was pressured and not allowed to lead easily, he wilted in the straight. I think that's what is going to happen here. The horse to do that is Heart To Fear as he did last time they met. Heart To Fear has a great record over this trip. Byrne adds confidence in the saddle. Other hopes to God's Window, G'day Old Mate and Seventh Heart.
***With the scratching of G'day Old Mate, I'll promote Prost to the hopes***
Race 2 - I was filthy on myself last time Trump raced as she he was my initial top pick. I talked myself out of him being able to run the 1500m. What a fool I was! He did it well. Steps up to 1615m this time and rises 1.5kg. Don't think that will be enough to stop him. It should be a Heathcote quinella with Bevico Girl. She's been closing the gap on Trump lately but may just come up short again. Other hopes to Atlantis Gem and Lady Racer.
Race 3 - This is a tricky race to get a hold on. The main sticking point for me is whether River Lad can hold off Carry Me Bluey, Narcelo and Benefaction. I think these 4 horses will be fighting out the finish. Probably the best option is to box these 4 up in a trifecta but we need something on top so I'll go with River Lad. He's pushed Belltone and did enough last start to suggest he'll be right in it to post.
Race 4 - The popular belief is that this race is between Fantastic Blue and Secrets Untold. I'm with Fantastic Blue. Finished off the race well last start when beating Secrets Untold by 2 lengths. With the claim for Hellyer, he still will carry less weight than his rival. Looks in ripping form.
Race 5 - Here we see the Ipswich cult hero Dodging Eddie having a go at Saturday company. Watching it's past few runs, I thought it was crying out for a longer trip. Personally I think it wants even further than the 2020m. It just keeps coming. With the claim it will carry a low weight which will help it come home. I can see this race being a bit of a slugfest to the finish and Ippy boys are known for that! This is a very hard race to pick and at the end of the day the local lad will do me. Other hopes, good question! Daad's Overtime, Billum, Scarlett Jo and Clangor.
***Clangor has been scratched. There will be no replacement hope***
Race 6 - Going with Gunner Knox here. Goes up 4kg on his last start 2nd but has proven that he can carry weight in the past. Has been a model of consistency this time in and I don't see that changing. It's past 2 starts place it very well in this race. Other hopes to Lapel, Rundle, Il Cardinale and Freton.
Race 7 - Being a 1010m race, it goes without saying that there is some speedy types in this. I think that will set it up for something coming from behind. For that reason I'm going with Found The One. In it's 1st start in QLD, she bolted in by 6 lengths. Although only a mid-week race, you have to respect a horse that can gap it's rivals by that far. Byrne offsets barrier 13. Other hopes to Silver Scholar, Lone Assassin and Street Stall.
Race 8 - A similar race to end the day as last week. Should be a fair speed set which will help those coming home late. A number of chances are engaged. I've always been a Captain Clayton fan and I'll be sticking with him here. This is well short of his favoured distance but he'll be rattling home late. He has a great 1st up record and trialed well leading into this. Other hopes to Joint Chiefs, Carry The Clubs and Monashee Dancer.
Best Bets
Caulfield - Race 2 Number 4 Balavan
Race 5 Number 10 Testa My Patience
Race 8 Number 9 December Draw
Rosehill - Race 1 Number 3 Nobby Snip
Race 4 Number 5 Tullamore
Race 5 Number 5 Sincero
Doomben - Race 4 Number 1 Fantastic Blue
Race 6 Number 4 Gunner Knox
Race 7 Number 13 Found The One
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