Friday 30 November 2012

01/12/12 - Eagle Farm, Caulfield and Warwick Farm

Eagle Farm

Race 1 - We open the day with a race for 2 year olds.  As is the case at this time of the year, many of them are untried.  This means we have to be wary about betting.  The interesting runner here is El Tornado (1) who won a trial on the Gold Coast by 9 lengths.  That's very hard to ignore.  However I'm going with Sister Magic (5) who won on debut and for The Silk.  It raced greenly but was still able to win by 1.3 lengths over this trip.  Draws nicely in barrier 2 so should be able to race in a handy position. She gets a 3kg relief for the claim of Matheson which will be beneficial.  Other hopes to El Tornado (1), Londehero (4) and Echo Berry (7).
 
Race 2 - Poste Restante (3) looks extremely hard to beat here.  Since taking up permanent residency in Brisbane she has raced extremely well.  She's had 3 starts, winning 2 and narrowly going down in the other.  The step up to 2118m won't worry her as she raced in much stronger races around this distance and further during the winter.  She drops 2.5kg on her last start win and will be incredibly hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Trajet (6), Spechenka (1) and Count Encosta (2).
 
Race 3 - Blow A Kiss, Crazy Mamma and Leica Bita Lippy should ensure a decent speed here.  Endless Shadow (7) races at her best when over middle distances.  This has been well and truly demonstrated at her past 2 starts where she has won nicely over 1660m and 1600m.  Those were in class 3 midweek company but I don't think the step in class will worry her.  She'll be able to charge home off a solid tempo.  Gets the services of senior jock, Michael Cahill.  Other hopes to Blow A Kiss (4), Marculoo (9) and Leica Bita Lippy (10). 
 
Race 4 - Kilwinning Option (2) resumes here and has an outstanding 1st up record.  From 5 resumptions, he's won 4 and ran 2nd in the other.  He loves this distance and has raced well when coming to the city.  He's drawn nicely in barrier 2 and will be given a lovely run by Matheson who claims 3kg off the 58.5kg.  Other hopes to Solebid (7), Go Forest Go (5) and Peace Talks (11).


Race 5 - Speed in this race looks solid with Bound To Blush and Dream'N'Ignite definitely pushing forward from their wide gates. More than likely Funtantes and Jester's Girl will do likewise.  This will allow Risk Aversion (3) to come over the top in the straight.  Risk Aversion loves this track and distance with a record of 3 wins and 2 3rds from 5 races.  She resumes here and has a good fresh record.  Other hopes to Fire Up Fifi (4), Cuddlesome (6) and Bound To Blush (5).  

Race 6 - Biggles (2) has lead in his last 2 races and with the lack of pace in this race, I can see him employing the same tactics here to great effect.  Biggles and Jet Style have run 1 and 2 in their past 2 races but with a 2kg turnaround, I can see Biggles getting the better of is rival this time.  This was seen when they raced 2 starts back at equal weights and Biggles won by 1.5 lengths.  Biggles loves this track and will appreciate a firmer surface.  Other hopes to Jet Style (3), Mr Light Blue (5) and Equissential (8).

Race 7 - Big field of 3 year old go around here and the speed looks furious.  Qfighter (5) has looked a nice type in it's 2 starts since resuming.  After walloping the opposition at the Gold Coast, he narrowly went down to General Exhibit who is a good horse.  They beat the rest by nearly 5 lengths.  From the good gate, Colless should be able to position the horse in a nice position.  It will be strong at the finish as shown by it's quick final 600m times.  Other hopes to Discreet (3), Players Choice (4) and Chosen Talent (9).

Race 8 - Last week I thought Seeking More was a good thing at Doomben.  It ran 2nd.  I didn't count on being sat back in my seat by Lucky Sound (13) who beat Seeking More by 3 lengths and made it look like a donkey.  I was greatly impressed by Lucky Sound and I think he can step up to Saturday class and win again.  He has raced well (never worse than 2nd) at this track in his short career.  He has drawn the peg and I can see Larry Cassidy getting the horse into a fantastic position on the speed.  When it's time to go in the straight, the others just won't be able to go with him.  Other hopes to Matabrahma (14), Cyclone Al (8) and Tail And All (15).

***With the scratching of Cyclone Al, I'll promote Gunner Knox (4) to the other hopes***


Caulfield

Race 1 - Pass big time!

Race 2 - Number 2 Our Celladoor

Race 3 - Number 8 Lampedusa

Race 4 - Number 5 Clang And Bang

Race 5 - Number 6 Kasmaher

Race 6 - Number 12 The New Boy

Race 7 - Number 2 Goldslick

Race 8 - Number 6 Stratcombe


Warwick Farm

Race 1 - Number 6 Aspen

Race 2 - Number 4 Office Bearer

Race 3 - Number 2 Happy Hussy

Race 4 - Number 2 Moriarty

Race 5 - Number 8 Stratford

Race 6 - Number 10 The Great Snowman

Race 7 - Number 10 Forster

Race 8 - Number 9 Disciple


Best Bets

Eagle Farm - Race 4 Number 2 Kilwinning Option
                   Race 5 Number 3 Risk Aversion
                   Race 8 Numbe 13 Lucky Sound

Caulfield - Race 4 Number 5 Clang And Bang
                Race 8 Number 6 Stratcombe

Warwick Farm - Race 2 Number 4 Office Bearer
                        Race 4 Number 2 Moriarty

     

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