Friday 16 November 2012

17/11/12 - Eagle Farm, Sandown and Rosehill

I for one am very happy the last few weeks are behind us.  What a ball tearer! Well done if you came out in front.  I'm well and truly licking my wounds.  As is always the case, we get another chance this Saturday.  

Eagle Farm


Before we start, a thunder storm is predicted this afternoon in Brisbane so I would tread warily if it takes places during the meeting.  As we know, Eagle Farm becomes a pool with the slightest amount of rain so a severe storm would basically make the track a write off. 


***A storm has hit Brisbane before race 1 and the track was downgraded to Slow 7.  I would be very reluctant to get involved now.  I've included some to consider in each race that have wet track form.***



Race 1 - We open with a 2 year old race where only 2 of the 10 have had a race start.  Generally I'd avoid these races.  However there could be a smart type in Sister Magic (7) involved.  This full sister to Miss Imagica has won a trial in Toowoomba and this week put in a great gallop on the sand where she clocked 23.5 for the last 400m.  With the claim for Brooke Richardson, the horse will carry just 51.5kg.  Other hopes to Assertive Love (4), Flying Riddle (1) and Echo Berry (5).


***Wouldn't bother getting involved as none have any wet track exposure***

Race 2 - This is potentially a trap race and I'd be very wary about getting carried away with your betting.  The top 3 horses in the weights are all classy performers but have been quite poor in recent times.  A breakout performance from any of them would hardly shock.  Cuddlesome (4) is a lightly raced 4 year old in great form.  She has won 4 from 8 and has only been out of the placings once in those 8 starts.  The 1000m is short of her pet distance but she's been freshened so I'd imagine she'll be ready to rip here.  Will race with just 52.5kg after the claim for Butler.  I won't be taking ridiculous odds about her especially if we get a wet track. Other hopes to Alltherightmoves (1), Golden Trinkets (8) and Jasminka (3).

***Alltherightmoves (1), Jasminka (2), Karanja (7) and Golden Trinkets (8) get through wet going***

Race 3 - There's a handful of horses that like to take up the running here and with the majority of them drawn out, we should see a solid pace set here.  That should enable Dodging Eddie (6) to work his way into it nicely and come home like a train.  He gets the services of Chris Munce again who knows the horse well.  He has raced well in his 3 runs this campaign and should be cherry ripe for this.  Other hopes to Poste Restante (1), Putyourfaithinme (8) and Santo De Lago (2).

***Santo De Lago (2) has an impressive record on heavy***

Race 4 - I found this to be an open race.  I've gone with Sons Of God (10).  He doesn't win out of turn but is generally not far from the action.  He's had 3 runs this campaign and has finished in the placings all 3 and less than a length from the winner in each.  I think he can get a great run parking just off the leaders from the nice draw.  Other hopes to Jack's Back (4), Marculoo (8) and Crazy Mamma (6).

***With the scratching of Jack's Back, I'll promote Hangover Henry (2) to the other hopes***

Race 5 - Preacher Boy (8) has been in quite good form since resuming 3 starts back. In those runs he's had a win and 2 close 3rds.  He's up in class but drops 4kg on his last start win over 1650m.  Tegan Harrison will be able to position him in the 1st 4 from the good gate.  He's in top shape and will prove strong at the finish.  Other hopes to Biggles (2), Jet Style (7) and Mr Light Blue (3).

Race 6 - This race will take 2 completely different shapes depending on the weather.  I really don't like these 2000m+ races at the best of the times but with question marks over the weather, I'll be sitting out this race.  Horses such as Bid Spotter, Saint Encosta and Marked would be considered on top with a dry track but they can't go a lick in the wet.  If it rains, I'd be looking at Rothera, Buffett, Trajet and Zed Man.   

Race 7 - Stone the crows! What a head scratcher we have here.  I'm going with Epic Dragon (4).  He recently joined the Tony Gollan stable and won his 1st start for them over 1200m.  He has a great 2nd up record winning 2 and placing 3rd in 4 2nd up runs.  He has drawn well in barrier 2.  Given his racing in Melbourne was done over much longer distances than the 1300m here, so I would suggest he'll be very strong at the finish.  Other hopes to Rapid Leica Dane (8), Comahni (11) and Requested (9).

Race 8 - If you're alive going into the last leg of the Quaddie, good luck because we've got another tricky race to finish things.  I'm going with Seeking More (7).  He's had 3 starts for 2 wins.  The 2 wins were over 1000m but boy did he look impressive.  Last start he was no match for The White Hope over 1350m.  I have a feeling that was a touch too far for him.  Back to 1200m and a gun run for Chris Munce should see him very hard to beat.  Other hopes to Regular (3), Saluter (1) and Mishani Stealth (6).


Sandown 

Race 1 - Number 9 Purrific

Race 2 - Number 3 Meidung

Race 3 - Number 6 Verdant

Race 4 - Number 6 Strike The Stars

Race 5 - Number 2 Raspberries

Race 6 - Number 1 Mourayan

Race 7 - Number 1 Tatra

Race 8 - Number 15 Mid Summer Music

Race 9 - Number 6 Angel Of Mercy


Rosehill

Race 1 - Number 5 Windjammer

Race 2 - Number 1 Al Dragon

Race 3 - Number 2 Sessions

Race 4 - Number 3 Moriarty

Race 5 - Number 8 Princess Layla

Race 6 - Number 11 Irish Jig

Race 7 - Number 2 Velrosso

Race 8 - Number 11 Skip Town


Best Bets

Eagle Farm - Race 5 Number 8 Preacher Boy 

Sandown - Race 3 Number 6 Verdant
                Race 6 Number 1 Mourayan
               Race 7 Number 1 Tatra 

Rosehill - 4 Number 3 Moriarty   

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