Friday 6 July 2012

07/07/12 - Flemington, Rosehill and Eagle Farm

Flemington

Race 1 - This isn't a race that I'll be getting overly carried away with.  I'll have a small wager on Zounite (1).  This guy won on debut at Morphettville and looked quite handy in the process.  He won his trial on slow going which is the surface he'll face here.  He should be able to sit off Happy Galaxy in the run and then finish off.  Other hopes to Happy Galaxy (4), Heroic Tale (6) and Sweetener (10).

Race 2 - Again we have a race that does not fill one with confidence.  On paper there looks like there could be a fair amount of pressure on.  To further complicate things, all jockeys are apprentices.  I'm going to go with Forty Thirty (4).  This horse has appreciated the wet tracks in his last few starts.  He won over 1500m by 2.8 lengths and then backed it up with a 4.5 length win over 1600m.  I like the fact that Wallace rode the horse in those 2 wins and it gets in with just 52.kg.  Other hopes to Winning Glory (2), New York (8) and Banca Mo (6).

Race 3 - Cyclone Andy (4) won over this course and distance last start by 3 lengths.  It was slow going on that occasion.  The same surface it will face here.  Glen Boss will also ride again and the horse only goes up 1kg for winning so easily.  Other hopes to The Counterfeiter (5), Rushworth (9) and Baron Douro (1).

Race 4 - Club Command (1) will lump 60kg here but I don't think that will be enough to stop him.  Not many of these have raced on wet tracks or have shown an ability to handle it.  This guy has with a win and a 3rd from 2 races on slow.  He should be able to get an easy lead here which has been the case in his past 2 wins.  Because of this, the 1600m shouldn't be a problem as Nolen will be able to control the race.  Other hopes to Chile Express (2), Outback Ranger (9) and Warrego Melody (14).

Race 5 - Wow, what a way to kick off the quaddie.  This looks a very tough race and for that reason I'm going with one offering great value.  That horse is Montgomery (2) who is currently around the $18 mark.  Firstly Glen Boss is riding him and he chose this horse over Streaky Fella.  Montgomery has shown an ability to carry big weights and also can handle a wet track as shown by his stats of 8 wins or placings from 15 races on a wet track.   His wins have been between distances of 2025m and 3000m so te 2600m here won't cause any problems.  Warmed up for this with a jumps trial which I think could sharpen him up.  Other hopes to Streaky Fella (5), Geejayhaitch (7) and Crabs (4).  Quaddie players will probably want to go wide!

Race 6 - Menados (16) grabbed the cash for The Silk last start and I'll be sticking with him again here.  Has a 2 from 2 record over this distance and won here last start.  He has shown a liking to wet tracks, winning 3 from 4.  King will be able to give him a great ride from the good gate. Other hopes to There's Only One (6), Lord Pyrus (2) and Future Solution (13).

Race 7 - Ready To Rip (3) has always been one that I've had some time for so I'm keen to see how he goes in the Moody stable.  He has a great 1st up record and has shown a liking for wet tracks.  He has quite a bit of ability and I think Moody will get the best out of him. Was scratching from Morphettville to run here. Other hopes to Gossip Girl (7), Dash For Viz (10) and Verdasco (5).

Race 8 - If you're alive going into the final leg of the Quaddie, good luck! Again this doesn't look an easy race.  I've gone with Pass The Post (2).  I'm concerned about her carrying 60kg but she did get up last start when carrying 59.5kg.  She has a great record over this distance as is her record on slow racing surfaces.  She races well for Mertens and he should be able to position her nicely from the good gate.  Other hopes to Aliberani (3), Barbie Dazzler (6) and Dayita (1).

Rosehill

Race 1 - I'll stick with Headless (2) after her narrow loss last start.  As mentioned last time, she wasn't far off Doubtfilly 2 starts back and that horse then ran 4th in the Golden Slipper.  She has handled the wet track the 2 times she has come across it.  The blinkers go on and that should sharpen her up.  Hardest to beat Sherocksmyworld (3).

Race 2 - Your Song (1) beat most of these last start and I can see him giving a repeat dose.  He has drawn the outside gate but there doesn't seem to be much speed in this race so I think Robl will be able to cross easily.  If Forever Crazy (4) settles closer, she will be the hardest to beat. 

Race 3 - Nocturnelle (5) is a horse I thought could win some nice races last campaign.  She ran well in those without winning but confirmed to me that she is a very good horse.  Although she hasn't raced on a heavy surface, her slow track efforts have been very good.   She has a good fresh record and likes this distance.  Warmed up for this with a trial win.  Gets Schofield Snr to ride which only enhances her chances.  Other hopes to Soledad (4), Bello (1) and At All Costs (6).

Race 4 - This isn't a race I'll be getting too involved in.  Piazza San Pietro (6) will do me for an interest bet.  Has won up to 2800m and is 2 from 2 on heavy going.  Will race with 52.5kg after the claim.  Last start he was disappointing when sent out a short priced favourite but is fit so should give a sight. 

Race 5 - Euryale (13) grabbed the cash last time for us and I was quite taken with the run.  I'm sticking solid.  She has taken a real liking to Rosehill, winning 3 from 4.  She has a perfect 2 from 2 on heavy going.  She's in a purple patch of form so it's best to go on the ride with her.  Other hopes to Thumbtacks (7), World Wide (5) and Dunrossil (12).

Race 6 - Kuhreihen (13) hit the line hard 1st up when narrowly going down to Soledad.  That was on slow going.  Malavio franked that form last week.  This horse hasn't been tested on a heavy surface but the way he got through it last start and the fact he's by Commands suggests to me that he won't have too many dramas with it.  Other hopes to San Zaim (15), Stout Hearted (6) and Romanus (8).


Race 7 - It doesn't get any easier with this race.  This really isn't a race that I want to get too involved in.  Fashion (5) seems to always be thereabouts.  It's 2 wins and 8 placings from 27 starts is testament to this.  It has 2 placings on slow going from 3 starts.  It can be slow getting away but it has jumped better in it's last 2 races.  If he can again then it should be prominent in the finish.  It's too difficult to narrow down the other hopes to 3.  Go wide.


Race 8 - Unanimously (3) has an excellent record 1st up, winning 3 from 4.  This is his pet distance, only being out of the placings once in 9 tries.  He has shown an ability to handle wet tracks.  Has to carry 59kg but that is offset by the jockey being Nash Rawiller.  Other hopes to See The World (5), Sutton Queen (9) and Lady La Douce (13).


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - The youngster War Charm (10)  will do me in the opener.  Has a good overall record and has done his best racing on a dead surface.  This is his pet distance winning 2 from 4 and placing in another.  He has some great form around the likes of Nobby Snip and Landing.  Other hopes to Liesele (16), Hidden Kisses (7) and Taken (12).

***With the scratching of Taken, I'll promote Leicester Square (5) to the other hopes***


Race 2 - Urgh. Do I have to?  No.  There's just too many chances here in an ordinary race.


Race 3 - $100 000 maiden and we have a few southerners chasing the big bucks.  I'm going with the Kris Lees trained Beaufort Gyre (2).  Lees has a good record placing his horses in Brisbane.  This guy has 4 placings from 5 starts and has narrowly missed out in his last 2.  Blinkers go on for the 1st time and that could really sharpen him up.  Munce will give him a great run from an inside gate.  Other hopes to Chilean Plume (3), Amphlett (13) and Windsplitter (8).

***With the scratching of Amphlett, I'll promote Good Hunting (10) to the other hopes***


Race 4 - All and sundry were impressed with Caldetes (1) when he won resuming on Ipswich Cup day.  Gets a nice draw here and will take full advantage of that.  Steps up to 1400m after 3 weeks since his win over 1100m.  This doesn't concern me as trainer Dunn is no mug so I trust he knows what he is doing.  Other hopes to Fantisha (16), Discreet (10) and Saluter (3).


Race 5 - Dusty Gold (8) slammed into the rail last start and lost considerable ground but still only went down by 4.8 lengths.  The start previous to that he ran on and narrowly went down.  Based on that run, a win was just around the corner.  He has a good record at this track and on dead going.  Will carry 53kg after the claim.  Other hopes to Fire Up Fifi (12), St Germaine (2) and Bianca Jewel (5).


Race 6 - Maythehorsebemagic (6) is from the Moroney stable which have been in good form in QLD this winter.  This guy will have no dramas running the 3200m after coming 2nd 2 starts back over the distance lumping 60kg.  Gets in with 54kg here which is better than Booming who beat him last start.  Other hopes to Booming (1), Spechenka (4) and Roi D'Jeu (7).


Race 7 - Adnocon (2) narrowly missed his 3rd Eye Liner last start when he charged home.  Belltone won that day and that form has been franked with Belltone winning the Glasshouse last week.  Has drawn the peg and Browne should be able to place him nicely.  He looks well weighted to me.  Other hopes to Griffon (3), Audacious Spirit (4) and The Sixties (6).


Race 8 - Divine City (5) almost sent The Silk out in a blaze of glory on Ipswich Cup day but unfortunately after racing wide went down by the narrowest of margins.  I'm sticking with her here.  I liked the fight she showed that day and that will come in handy over the 1400m.  Will carry 53.5kg after the claim.  Other hopes to Dorchester (14), Epic Terra (6) and Volkhere (7).  


Best Bets


Flemington - Race 7 Number 3 Ready To Rip


Rosehill - Race 2 Number 1 Your Song 
             Race 3 Number 5 Nocturnelle
             Race 5 Number 13 Euryale


Eagle Farm - Race 3 Number 2 Beaufort Gyre
                  Race 6 Number 6 Maythehorsebemagic

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