Race 1 - This is a tricky race to kick things off with many of the horses having similar form lines. Unfortunately that doesn't make it easier. I'll have a small bet on Champagne Shisha (5). She won well 1st up on heavy going at Mornington before leading here last start and fading for 5th. D. Oliver gets back on for this race. He was in the saddle when she won 1st up. If given a handy trail instead of leading, I think she can be in the finish. Other hopes to Slewsay (6), Bonaria (7) and Glenmaura (2).
Race 2 - I won't be getting involved in this race.
Race 3 - Genuine Spin (3) comes up a short quote here and probably won't be backable. It's easy to see why following her excellent 4 length win last start over this distance on slow going. Some of those that she beat in that race get a weight swing here but I don't think that will be enough to stop her. Other hopes to Turner Bayou (1), Elldami (2) and Laconic Lad (8).
Race 4 - Epingle (7) brings some good form into this race. Although she was beaten last start by Storm Burst, she gets a weight swing here and also Luke Nolen has chosen to ride her over Storm Burst. I think that's a good lead. A wet track will hold no concerns and she did win last time on a heavy surface. Other hopes to Storm Burst (9), Sister Norma (2) and Stoneblack (3).
***With the scratching of Storm Burst, I'll promote Shiny Buttons (5) to the other hopes***
***With the scratching of Storm Burst, I'll promote Shiny Buttons (5) to the other hopes***
Race 5 - Johannapine (6) has been costly this campaign but I'm giving her one more go. She has a good heavy track record and races well at this track. She was narrowly beaten by Serene Star last start but gets quite a weight swing here. With clear running she should be hard to hold out. Other hopes to Serene Star (8), Miss Bindi (1) and Show Up (5).
Race 6 - Le Societe (16) grabbed the cash for us last start and I'm sticking with her again. She simply loves the wet. She is unbeaten on rain affected tracks. She won her only previous 2nd up start. Nolen should be able to give her a good run from the nice draw. Other hopes to Second Effort (4), Alpha Proxima (5) and Rue Maple (11).
Race 7 - I'm not a big fan of this race at all. I have no doubts that Cash Bound is the best credentialed horse in the race but I have a few worries with the 60kg and it's wet track form. Such is the quality of this race that I wouldn't be surprised if it won. I'm going with what could be a hit or miss proposition. Hardly an ideal strategy! Loot 'N' Run (3) unlike the majority of these has form on wet tracks, having won 4 and placing in 1 from 7 attempts. He has also won 3 from 4 over the distance. He should lead here or be very handy and I'll be hoping that he can go on with it. The 3kg off for the apprentice could be telling. Other hopes to Cash Bound (1), Komodo (2) and Harmonic (4).
Race 8 - LuckyI'mbarefoot (14) just loves a heavy track. He has 4 wins and a 2nd from 6 attempts on it. He is racing in good form, winning his last start. He races well on the fresh side which he will be here. Gets the Boss Man in the saddle with just 54kg. Other hopes to Dash For Viz (10), Mr Griswold (3) and Jungle Ruler (2).
Warwick Farm
Race 1 - I'm going with one at a bit of value here in Disciple (4). I won't be getting carried away by any means but it's worth a small wager around the $15 mark. Comes from the Chris Waller stable with Corey Brown in the saddle. Has a good record over the trip and can handle wet tracks.
Race 2 - I'm not getting involved here.
Race 3 - Again, I'm not taken with this race. I've put Pectin (1) on top but I'll only have a small wager. She won well last start after taking a little while to get clear over 1250m on heavy. Peter Robl stays in the saddle and will lump the same weight. He should be able to position her well from the peg. She has handled wet tracks in the past well. Other hopes to Trixie (12), Berrimilla (8) and Arrowette (11).
Race 4 - Urban Explorer (4) comes up from Melbourne to race here for Jim Conlan. This horse has put together a good record, winning 5 from 12. Has shown an ability to handle wet tracks, most noticeably a last start win by 3.2 lengths on slow. Has the in form Jeff Lloyd riding who should be able to position the horse very close to the lead and go on with it. Other hopes to Sour Mash (3), Mr Tipsy (1) and Peck (5).
Race 5 - Happy Hussy (3) raced well last campaign against some reasonable opposition. Most notably her 3rd in the Magic Millions Guineas. Her overall record is good, only being out of the placings 3 times from 10 starts. She's had 2 trial to warm up for this. Last time she was 1st up she beat Sea Siren by 4.5 lengths. Should be able to take a sit just off the leader. Other hopes to Delzera (6), Fashion (7) and Matiya's Pride (9).
Race 6 - See The World (3) is flying at the moment. His slow track record is excellent, winning 3 from 5. He has never won beyond 1300m but the way he's been charging to the line, I doubt 1400m will pose too many problems. Other hopes to Embark (7), Startsmeup (2) and Irish Dream (8).
Race 7 - I very much doubt that Ebony Rock (6) has come up from Melbourne for a hair cut. It's been given the visitor's draw but they might not be as bad as initially thought. A couple of these should roll forward and set a decent pace. Ebony Rock has great slow track form winning 3 from 6. He also has a good record over the distance. Other hopes to Coup Ay Tee (3), Zykynthos Imprintz (1) and Think Mink (8).
Race 8 - Turf Hero (6) will do me in the last. I struggled to separate a few of these for top pick. Turf Hero has been racing in reasonable fashion lately. He hasn't been winning but he's been close to the likes of See The World, Famous Seamus and Dee 'n' Gee. He races well on all surfaces. He should get a great run, sitting 3rd or 4th. Other hopes to Gasquet (8), Tarrabandra (9) and Earnest Ernest (10).
Doomben
Race 1 - Signified (2) is in a purple patch of form. He's won 6 from 14 and goes particularly well on a wet track. Importantly he's never been out of the placings on slow/heavy tracks. Other hopes to Comahni (5), Kiss Me Deadly (7) and Hidden Kisses (1).
***With the scratching of Hidden Kisses, I'll promote Bingo Rose (6) to the other hopes***
Race 2 - Double Image (7) gets in here with just 51kg after the claim and will be of great benefit in the mud. This guy has put together a nice record, winning 4 from 8. He has a win and a 3rd from 2 starts on a slow track. His 1st up record is 2 wins and a 2nd from 4. Should be able to just sit on the speed and pounce in the straight. Other hopes to Gran Torino (5), Jopa (8) and Motspur (1).
***Motspur has been scratched but I won't add a replacement as I might as well name all of the 5 remaining runners***
Race 3 - Doesn't get much tougher than 2 year olds with limited starts on a bog track. There's not enough info here for me to bet.
Race 4 - Cash 'N' Style (2) was 1 I was on last start and I'm going to stick with him here. He ran on for 4th on the heavy going then. He should be fitter for that experience. This is a horse that has won over 1800m and has competed at distances around 2200m. It will be tough going through the mud so any stamina edge will be key. His overall record on wet tracks stands out 4 wins from 9. Other hopes to My Quilter (3), Marculoo (6) and Go Kingpin (5).
***With the scratching of Go Kingpin, I'll promote Easy Lager (8) to the other hopes***
Race 5 - Kevejon (9) will be in his stall dreaming of winning tonight with all the rain about. He just loves a wet track. He has won or placed in 9 of 13 starts on rain affected tracks. 2 starts back he was steaming to the line at Ipswich over 2150m. Has the Hammer on with 54kg which is considerably less than the main hopes. Other hopes to Racing Heart (1), Grey Assignment (2) and Ausworld (3).
***With the scratching of Grey Assignment, I'll promote Bloodhound (10) to the other hopes***
Race 6 - Brigadoon Jack (5) has been winning regularly at the Gold Coast and gets his chance to win in town with conditions to suit. He gets in with just 51kg after the claim and loves a wet track. He has a good record over this distance. He should prove very hard to run down. Other hopes to Meet George (2), Purettan (6) and Patties Mate (10).
Race 7 - Good lord this is a tough race. There's limited wet track form here. I'm going to have a small bet on Cryon (12). It's currently around the $21 mark and in an open affair offers some value. It's only been out of the placings once from 4 starts on a wet track. Has Jim Byrne in the saddle. Other hopes....go wide!
Race 8 - Top Of The Rock (6) comes up a clear top rater with me. Last start she won by 3 lengths on a heavy track here over this distance. She has a good overall record, only being out of the placings twice from 11 starts. In a race where I don't think there's many that like the wet, this one stands out. Other hopes to Military Grace (7), Internal Revenue (3) and Bradbury Chocolate (5).
***With the scratching of Internal Revenue, I'll promote Mr Favulous (1) to the other hopes***
Best Bets
Caulfield - Race 3 Number 3 Genuine Spin (if odds allow)
Race 4 Number 7 Epingle
Race 6 Number 16 Le Societe
Warwick Farm - Race 4 Number 6 Urban Explorer
Race 6 Number 3 See The World
Doomben - Race 6 Number 5 Brigadoon Jack
Race 8 Number 6 Top Of The Rock
Race 6 - See The World (3) is flying at the moment. His slow track record is excellent, winning 3 from 5. He has never won beyond 1300m but the way he's been charging to the line, I doubt 1400m will pose too many problems. Other hopes to Embark (7), Startsmeup (2) and Irish Dream (8).
Race 7 - I very much doubt that Ebony Rock (6) has come up from Melbourne for a hair cut. It's been given the visitor's draw but they might not be as bad as initially thought. A couple of these should roll forward and set a decent pace. Ebony Rock has great slow track form winning 3 from 6. He also has a good record over the distance. Other hopes to Coup Ay Tee (3), Zykynthos Imprintz (1) and Think Mink (8).
Race 8 - Turf Hero (6) will do me in the last. I struggled to separate a few of these for top pick. Turf Hero has been racing in reasonable fashion lately. He hasn't been winning but he's been close to the likes of See The World, Famous Seamus and Dee 'n' Gee. He races well on all surfaces. He should get a great run, sitting 3rd or 4th. Other hopes to Gasquet (8), Tarrabandra (9) and Earnest Ernest (10).
Doomben
Race 1 - Signified (2) is in a purple patch of form. He's won 6 from 14 and goes particularly well on a wet track. Importantly he's never been out of the placings on slow/heavy tracks. Other hopes to Comahni (5), Kiss Me Deadly (7) and Hidden Kisses (1).
***With the scratching of Hidden Kisses, I'll promote Bingo Rose (6) to the other hopes***
Race 2 - Double Image (7) gets in here with just 51kg after the claim and will be of great benefit in the mud. This guy has put together a nice record, winning 4 from 8. He has a win and a 3rd from 2 starts on a slow track. His 1st up record is 2 wins and a 2nd from 4. Should be able to just sit on the speed and pounce in the straight. Other hopes to Gran Torino (5), Jopa (8) and Motspur (1).
***Motspur has been scratched but I won't add a replacement as I might as well name all of the 5 remaining runners***
Race 3 - Doesn't get much tougher than 2 year olds with limited starts on a bog track. There's not enough info here for me to bet.
Race 4 - Cash 'N' Style (2) was 1 I was on last start and I'm going to stick with him here. He ran on for 4th on the heavy going then. He should be fitter for that experience. This is a horse that has won over 1800m and has competed at distances around 2200m. It will be tough going through the mud so any stamina edge will be key. His overall record on wet tracks stands out 4 wins from 9. Other hopes to My Quilter (3), Marculoo (6) and Go Kingpin (5).
***With the scratching of Go Kingpin, I'll promote Easy Lager (8) to the other hopes***
Race 5 - Kevejon (9) will be in his stall dreaming of winning tonight with all the rain about. He just loves a wet track. He has won or placed in 9 of 13 starts on rain affected tracks. 2 starts back he was steaming to the line at Ipswich over 2150m. Has the Hammer on with 54kg which is considerably less than the main hopes. Other hopes to Racing Heart (1), Grey Assignment (2) and Ausworld (3).
***With the scratching of Grey Assignment, I'll promote Bloodhound (10) to the other hopes***
Race 6 - Brigadoon Jack (5) has been winning regularly at the Gold Coast and gets his chance to win in town with conditions to suit. He gets in with just 51kg after the claim and loves a wet track. He has a good record over this distance. He should prove very hard to run down. Other hopes to Meet George (2), Purettan (6) and Patties Mate (10).
Race 7 - Good lord this is a tough race. There's limited wet track form here. I'm going to have a small bet on Cryon (12). It's currently around the $21 mark and in an open affair offers some value. It's only been out of the placings once from 4 starts on a wet track. Has Jim Byrne in the saddle. Other hopes....go wide!
Race 8 - Top Of The Rock (6) comes up a clear top rater with me. Last start she won by 3 lengths on a heavy track here over this distance. She has a good overall record, only being out of the placings twice from 11 starts. In a race where I don't think there's many that like the wet, this one stands out. Other hopes to Military Grace (7), Internal Revenue (3) and Bradbury Chocolate (5).
***With the scratching of Internal Revenue, I'll promote Mr Favulous (1) to the other hopes***
Best Bets
Caulfield - Race 3 Number 3 Genuine Spin (if odds allow)
Race 4 Number 7 Epingle
Race 6 Number 16 Le Societe
Warwick Farm - Race 4 Number 6 Urban Explorer
Race 6 Number 3 See The World
Doomben - Race 6 Number 5 Brigadoon Jack
Race 8 Number 6 Top Of The Rock
No comments:
Post a Comment