21/07/12 - Eagle Farm, Flemington and Rosehill

This is a shortened form of The Silk this week.  I've concentrated on Eagle Farm and have included some bets that I'll be interested in putting on at Flemington and Rosehill.  


Eagle Farm

Race 1 - I really don't know what to except with the track conditions here.  At 4pm Friday the track was rated a Slow 7.  Eagle Farm's problem with becoming a swamp with the slightest amount of rain is well known.  A wise guy once said that all it takes is for a drunk local to urinate on the back straight and it becomes a heavy 10.  The weather has been fine but whether that results in an upgrade is doubtful in my mind.  Anyway getting on with it.  This isn't much of a race to kick things off with it looking like a race in two between Racing Heart and Warrior Within.  I'm with Racing Heart (1).  He has a great record at the track winning 5 from 11 and is undefeated over the distance here.  Has a super wet track record.  Will be able to dictate the race much like he did last start.  

Race 2 - The Sixties (4) looks well placed here.  He comes off a great run where he ran 2nd to Adnocon.  He can handle wet tracks well.  With Lone Assassin and Rockdale likely to go forward, The Sixties should be able to lump right in behind them and prove hard to run down.  I feel that he will be stronger over 1200m than The Ringmaster who really doesn't have a great record over the trip.  Gets 3kg off for the apprentice so will only carry 53.5kg.  Goes well at the track.  Other hopes to The Ringmaster (3), Joint Chiefs (6) and Skating On Ice (9).

Race 3 - I've been on Fantisha (8) in it's last 2 starts when it's ran on for a 3rd and a 4th.  I think she gets the ideal circumstances here to get the win.  Once again she's drawn the car park but that should not be a problem with a fair clip being set in front.  She'll cruise across to the back and unwind in the straight.  The 1500m looks ideal now.  She has only the 1 start on a wet track and she was able to get through it quite well.  Other hopes to Discreet (1), Royal Jester (4) and Offense (9).

***With the scratching of Royal Jester, I'll promote Fusil De Eve (2) to the other hopes***    

Race 4 - Divine City (1) is a last start winner for The Silk and I'll be supporting her again.  She went close at Ipswich 2 starts back when running wide throughout and then put the writing on the wall winning last start at this track.  Although she hasn't placed in her 2 wet track starts, she did compete well against the likes of Charm's Honour, Punch On and Double Impact in those runs.  Gets 3kg off for the in form apprentice Allen.  In a thin race, other hopes to Venture On (2), Epic Terra (4) and Someday (7).

Race 5 - Revitalise and Black Magic should be fighting this one out.  I'm going with Black Magic (8) based on her last start 3rd.  On that occasion she bombed the start but still came home in a flurry.  The extra 100m here will suit and with a better start, she'll be tough to hold out.  She has won on a slow track 3 starts back.  Other hopes to Revitalise (4), Viking Heart (7) and Iking (5).

Race 6 - They could have been more kind to quaddie punters by not having this even affair as the 1st leg.  In this very open affair, I'm going with Scarbank (4).  Currently around the $15 mark, I think he offers good e/w value.  He has won and placed on wet tracks and has a good record over this trip.  Some of the better hopes are Choral (1), Nickiera (7) and Hangover Henry (2).  Go wide.


Race 7 - Fire Up Fifi (1) has to carry considerably more weight than usual and goes up to what has been an unkind distance in the past.  However the horse is flying at the moment and that's hard to ignore.  She loves this track and goes well on wet surfaces.  I just think she's a classier animal than the others and am prepared to believe she'll step up here.  Other hopes to Cash 'N' Style (2), Angusroy (6) and Eureka Jack (10).

***With the scratching of Eureka Jack, I'll promote Eastline (3) to the other hopes***


Race 8 - Carry Me Bluey (4) looks right in this after winning the South Grafton Cup over this trip.  What a spoil that price was!  He has a strong record over this trip winning 3 from 6 and has shown an ability without winning on wet tracks.  He goes particularly well at the track.  I feel he will be stronger at the end than some of his rivals.  Other hopes to Topping (6), Belltone (1) and Pepperwood (5).


Race 9 - Tanah Lot (3) has been given the visitor's draw here but I think he has a class edge on these.  I'm not overly concerned about the barrier as I think Cassidy can either take the horse forward or more than likely take him to the back.  Either way, I think he'll be too strong in the concluding stages given that he has won up to 2500m.  Other hopes to Miss Barwang (6), Izacat (2) and Karoo (8).


Flemington


Race 2 Number 5 Loveyamadly
Race 5 Number 1 Gossip Girl
Race 6 Number 11 Future Solution
Race 7 Number 7 Night War
Race 8 Number 7 Imoto


Rosehill


Race 1 Number 5 Nocturnelle
Race 2 Number 1 Madam Nash
Race 5 Number 2 Soledad
Race 6 Number 1 Forty Thirty
Race 7 Number 4 Kelinni
Race 8 Number 7 Big Bonanza