Friday 1 June 2012

02/06/12 - Sandown, Warwick Farm and Eagle Farm

Sandown

Race 1 - Not a race I'm overly keen to get involved in due to the fact it will be on wet ground and many of these haven't run this distance.  However I will have a small bet on Jacaranda Avenue.  This filly has had the 3 starts for 2 2nds.  Those 2nds were on slow and heavy going.  She'll more than likely jump to the lead from the inside gate and prove tough to run down.  1st up she did a similar thing but was run down on the line.  With improved fitness 2nd up, that hopefully won't be the case.  Other hopes to Triquetra, Maglissa and Clinking.

Race 2 - Rocking Force looks a great chance here.  His form is much better than his rivals.  He loves this distance, winning 4 and placing in 7 of 12 starts.  He also goes well at this track.  Has 2 slow track 2nds to his credit.  If the track improves to dead, that will further improve his chances.  Should be able to sit just off the speed.  Gets a 3kg weight relief with the apprenctice onboard.  Other hopes to Doubtful Jack, Stanzout and Miss Bindi.

Race 3 - Although Fareer has a 3kg advantage from the last time they met, I think Al Karam could still be too strong here.  Last start he won by 4.2 lengths on a slow track.  He can obviously handle slow/heavy tracks as shown by his 9 wins or placings from 17 tries on wet going.  Hardest to beat Fareer.

Race 4 - There's no disputing that Palmero is the testing material here.  However I'm going with the horse that ran 2nd to it last start, Gotta Take Care.  Firstly it does it's best racing on slow and dead going.  Gets a slight weight advantage here over Palmero for running a length behind.  Ran 1.3 lengths behind Black and Bent 2 starts back.  Other hopes to Palmero, Tuscan Fire and Kirribilli Gold.

Race 5 - The New Boy looks well placed here.  He rises just 0.5kg for winning last start.  He has a win and a 3rd from 2 attempts at this distance.  Goes particularly well on a dead track which is probably what he'll get here.  Although if it was slow, I doubt that would cause much concern.  He will get an excellent run from the inside draw and gets 3kg's off for the apprenctice Duffy.  Other hopes to Juliet's Princess, Westsouthwest and Apollo Creed.

Race 6 - Puissance De Lune is short enough but looks to be a more than handy horse.  Has had 2 starts in Australia and has looked impressive in both.  Last start it won by 3.2 lengths over 1800m with plenty in hand.  The extra 300m here shouldn't be a concern as will the state of the track.  Other hopes to Mr O'Ceirin, Magnifique Soleil and Turnitup.

Race 7 - I'm going for one here at big odds.  Miss Zoom is currently around the $19 mark and that's the way I'm going.  On face value it's form isn't fantastic, winning 2 from 9 starts.  However if you dig a bit deeper then it's got some great form around it.  In it's initial campaign it ran close or beat the the likes ot Shopaholic, Miss Somaly, Miss Stellabelle and Platelet.  If it can run up to that sort of effort here then it should be highly competitive.  It ran 2nd in it's only start at this track and should get a nice run.  Other hopes to Flash Of Doubt, Bonaria and Lady Melksham.

Race 8 - All the speed has gone out of this race with the early scratchings.  Andromache can race forward or back and from this draw, I'd say she'll go forward which will be of benefit.  Besides that, she's been racing in excellent style since coming over from NZ.  She's won both her starts comprehensively.  Other hopes to Candy Stripes, Sussuro and Go My Girl.

Warwick Farm

Race 1 - I'm staying well away from this race of only 6 starters.  Well that's not true, I'll have a sneaky fiver on Master Shep just in case miracles can happen.  The new comer Nechita should win this after a trial win against Sizzling and a more recent trial win by 7 lengths.  

Race 2 - Betrayal looks the one here.  Although it's currently under $2 so having a bet on it may not be worthwhile.  It looked good winning last start when it lead and then kicked away.  The extra 150m here should be ideal. 


Race 3 - This is a tricky race with a number of winning chances.  I'm going with the unbeaten Lucymaylyn.  She's won her only 2 starts and has looked good doing it.  She won her 1st start by 5 lengths and then ran good time at Wyong.  She was scratched midweek to run here.  Has won on dead and slow.  Should be able to cross over from her wide gate and dictate.  Other hopes to Secluded, Jester's Girl and Miss Milanese.


Race 4 - Flying Fuji ran 2nd to Pampelonne last start when it ran on strongly from the tail.  I think that's pretty good form for this.  On that occasion, it had a wide gate.  Here it draws in and will get a great run.  2kg off for Schofield Jnr.  Other hopes to Song And Roses, Cannery Row and Money Never Sleeps.

***With the scratching of Song And Roses, I'll promote Triple Six to the other hopes***


Race 5 - There should be a fair speed set here with a handful of these that like to go forward.  For that reason I'm going with Ricci Royal.  This guy get backs and runs on.  I would love him to settle a bit closer but regardless, we know he'll be hitting the line hard.  Other hopes to Skip Town, Sacred Pins and Green Beret.


Race 6 - Reuben Percival has been racing well lately and looks right in this.  He does his best work on ground with the sting out and that's what he'll get here.  He should get a great run on the speed.  Last start he was run down by Adroitly.  I don't think that will happen in this race.  Has a win and a 3rd to his credit over this distance.  Other hopes to Adroitly, Altonio and Roi D'Jeu.


Race 7 - Coup Ay Tee is a very consistent horse.  He's only been out of the placings once in 11 starts.  He warmed up for this with a 2nd to Albert The Fat in a trial.  Goes well fresh.  Will get a great run.  Other hopes to Eucumbene, Sacred Flyer and Alumbrado.

***With the scratching of Coup Ay Tee, Sacred Flyer and Alumbrado, I'll make Eucumbene my top pick.  I won't list any other hopes as that would mean I'm going down to what originally would have been my 7th best horse in this race***


Race 8 - Going with the track specialist in the last, Thumbtacks.  Besides his great record at the track (4 wins from 9 starts), he is racing in great form.  He will get a great trail here from the good gate and will prove hard to beat.  2kg's off for Schofield Jnr means he will race with 5.5kg less than last start.  Other hopes to Take The Oath, River Of Salvation and Chateau Fort.  


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - With the prospect that we'll be racing on a bog track, I'm going with noted wet tracker Karoo in the opener.  This guy loves the wet.  From 7 tries on slow/heavy going, he's won 3 and placed 2nd in 2.  He also goes very well over this distance and track.  Will more than likely take up the running or be very handy.  Other hopes to Lovingthelimelight, Angusroy and Rhetoric.


Race 2 - The French import Miss Chrissy is a group horse.  Admittedly most of it's racing have been over distances ranging from 2400m - 3000m.  It has wet track form and put in an excellent trial so it might have a bit of sharpness for this 1500m event.  Down in the weights.  Other hopes to Neriani, Mr Armstrong and Carry Me Bluey.

***With the scratching of Neriani, I'll promote Dusty Star to the other hopes***


Race 3 - Sizzling looks too good again here as shown by the $1.70 on offer. You simply can't get on at that price.  Academus looks the only other hope.


Race 4 - Lights Of Heaven should be tough to beat here.  She has looked impressive in her last 2 starts.  The 2200m should be right up her alley now.  Should handle a wet track being a Zabeel and has a 2nd on heavy to her credit.  Other hopes to Shez Sinsational, Ginga Dude and Scenic Shot.


Race 5 - The obvious wet tracker here is Red Tracer.  However I simply can't ignore Wealth Princess.  After 2 years off the scene, she's come back in awesome style.  It must be noted that her 1st up run was on slow going where she came home hard.  Loves this distance.  Other hopes to Red Tracer, Bonnie Mac and Forfeiture.


Race 6 - With all the rain about, Boys On Tour comes right into this.  This bloke just loves it, winning  3 from 4 goes on a heavy track.  That's not to say he's not in form.  His last start 3rd to Mental was good as he didn't get clear till late.  Perfect record at this track.  Other hopes to Mental, Double Impact and Silk favourite Punch On.  


Race 7 - This is going to be a great race.  There's a number of chances but the 1 I'll be with is Miss Artistic.  Was running on late 1st up on the heavy going at the Coast.  Then was good when just getting nudged out in the Roses last start.  She should be cherry ripe now and will take a lot of beating.  Has won her only start over this distance which was the Group 1 NZ Oaks.  Should be able to handle the wet track.  Other hopes to Scorpio Queen, Quintessential and Dowager Queen.


Race 8 - The best wet tracker in the race is clearly Neeson.  He has won 3 from 6 and placed in 2 others from 6 goes on slow/heavy going.  He has also won 3 from 5 over this distance and has raced well at this track.  He's got a big weight and a wide barrier which are concerns.  However he's the best horse in the race and maybe that will just give us a better price.  Other hopes to Celtic Dancer, Meet George and Belltone.  


Best Bets


Sandown - Race 2 Number 2 Rocking Force
               Race 5 Number 1 The New Boy
               Race 8 Number 8 Andromache


Warwick Farm - Race 7 Number 11 Eucumbene
                        Race 8 Number 9 Thumbtacks


Eagle Farm - Race 1 Number 10 Karoo e/w
                  Race 4 Number 8 Lights Of Heaven
                  Race 6 Number 7 Boys On Tour    

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