Eagle Farm
Race 1 - Discreet looks an excellent chance in the opening event on Stradbroke day. She won the Calaway Gal last campaign in dominant fashion. It's form this time around is good also. Narrowly lost to Regular who is in good form 1st up and then was not too far away from the very good Sizzling. With a solid pace, Discreet will be able to get to a nice position without much effort. Has run 2nd on dead and heavy going. Other hopes to Hoss Amor, Caliente and Tinszelda.
Race 2 - The Heathcote team changed the racing style of Solzhenitsyn 2 starts back and wow, don't the results speak for themselves! In his past 2 starts, he has raced on the speed and done it at both ends. Has the little gentleman, Michael Rodd on top to control things. If that's the case then he'll be mighty hard to run down. Other hopes to Firebolt, Skyerush and St Germaine.
Race 3 - Mental looks the one to beat here but at $1.60, you simply can't back it.
Race 4 - This is the David Jones Lightning Handicap and there couldn't be a more apt name for the race with so many speedsters engaged. They are going to go hell for leather once those gates open. I'm going with the very much in form runner here in Excellantes. This horse is flying at the moment, winning it's last 2 starts. It loves this track with a record of never being out of the placings from 8 starts. Goes particularly well on a dead track. It's slow track stats aren't fantastic but it put in some bottler work this week on slow going where it gave a 20m start to Griffon over 1000m and ended up passing it on the line. Brown has won 5 times from 6 starts on this horse. Other hopes to Nuptse, Facile Tigre and Seek And Find.
Race 5 - It's very hard to go past Sizzling. This horse has been dominant since returning from a spell. He has won all 3 starts and has charged to the line in all 3. The 1600m looks taylor made now. Can race on any surface. Having said all that, I'm not keen on taking the $1.85 currently on offer and will wait and see if that prices improves. Other hopes to Kabayan, Donna Cattiva and Boban.
Race 6 - I keep coming back to Brambles. He ran them ragged last start over 2200m and was very good when winning the start before. He has put together a great record winning 4 from 9 and placing in 4 others. He can handle any going. I don't necessarily think he'll lead here. He should be able to cruise across and take a very handy possie. Other hopes to Vatuvei, Zabeelionaire and Westsouthwest.
Race 7 - I'm very keen on Wealth Princess in the Stradbroke. She has been in sensational form since coming back after a long spell. Last start she didn't like the heavy track but still managed to run just 1.8 lengths off Red Tracer who is a deadset swimmer when carrying 59.5kg. She drops to 53kg here which she'll just cherish. Her record over this distance is excellent. She'll be charging to the line. Other hopes to Buffering, Sea Siren and Temple Of Boom.
Race 8 - I found it hard to separate Mawingo and Lights Of Heaven. I have gone with Lights Of Heaven because I think it can handle a slow/dead track better. She's going very well at the moment and put in a ripper effort last start where she brained them. Meets Scenic Shot 1.5kg better for belting him! Has a poor barrier but I think it can get across easier enough to take up a decent position. Other hopes to Mawingo, Dance With Her and Scenic Shot.
Flemington
Race 1 - Fringed won on debut on the synthetic Geelong surface after leading all the way. Will get a great run from the inside gate here and could do the same again. Has the experienced Steve Arnold to guide.
Race 2 - Roses In The Glen will be right in the finish here. Has won or run 2nd in 7 of it's 8 starts. Can handle any going which is a bonus with the chance of rain about. Although it has a wide gate, it should be able to push across to sit in a handy position. Other hopes to Family Crest, Kasmaher and Houston Benefactor.
Race 3 - Johannapine will be tough to beat here. She has a great record and probably should have won 1st up. Her 2nd up record is perfect, winning 2 from 2. Any dampness in the track will play right into her hands. Hardest to beat is Perturbo.
***With the scratching of Johannapine, I'll make Perturbo my top pick***
Race 4 - I'm really not keen to get involved here so I'll pass.
Race 5 - Perhaps the safe bet here is to take Zamorar and Lady Melksham in a quinella. They are clearly the best 2 in the race. I would put Lady Melksham on top based on how dynamic it won last start. A soft surface won't hurt it's chances.
Race 6 - This looks an open race to me so I'm treating it with caution. I'm going with Chosen To Fly. Looked good winning last start and it's 1st up run in the Wangoom was alright also. Has a horror barrier but I would think that it will be able to come across relatively easily to take up a decent position. Goes very well at this track, winning 2 and running 2nd in 4 starts here. A dead track would be ideal but can handle slow. Other hopes to Glaneuse, Population and Bereft.
Race 7 - I'm taking the tip here from Steven Arnold for Turner Bayou. Arnold doesn't ride at 56kg too often so you know that he must have an opinion of this horse. Last start it narrowly went down to Campeao over 2100m. It meets that horse here better at the weights. 2 starts back it went down to Soros who was a QLD Derby horse before being scratched. Other hopes to Outback Ranger, Campeao and Two Sugars.
Race 8 - Going with Hurdy Gurdy Man in the last. Has been a model of consistency lately. Melham goes back on and he has a super record aboard. He has always won or placed when he's been the jockey. Goes particularly well on dead/slow ground. Other hopes to Finiguerra, Swooper and Crabs.
Rosehill
Race 1 - I'll give this race a miss.
Race 2 - Going with Famous Seamus here. Has put together a decent record of 3 wins from 7 starts. Goes particularly well over this distance with 4 wins or placings from 5 attempts. Can handle a dead/slow surface. Gets 3kg relief with Guymer in the saddle. Should race handy from a good gate. Other hopes to Hendricus, Not A Dancer and Air Comet.
***With the scratching of Famous Seamus, I'll make Hendricus my top pick and promote Battant to the other hopes***
Race 3 - Censor meets Charing Cross 5kg better off here after going down by 3 lengths last start. On a damp track, I think that could be all the difference Censor needs to turn the tables. It has been running on well in it's past few so the 2000m should suit. Other hopes to Charing Cross, Gopanna and Southern Shimmer.
Race 4 - Ideal Position has a great record winning 7 from 14. Those have been in the country but it's last start 4th to Riva De Lago at Scone where it was only 1.8 lengths away after not getting a clear run. Greg Ryan follows it to town which is a good lead. Will need the speed on so it can come home hard. Other hopes to Zedlion, Green Beret and Dunrossil.
Race 5 - Not a race I'm particularly keen on but since it's the 1st leg of the quaddie, I'll look at it. It's a race of many chances. I'm going with Titbit. Won 3rd up last campaign which is where it is at this time around. Goes particularly well on a dead surface but can handle wetter. Other hopes to Madam Nash, Disputes and San Zaim.
Race 6 - Alberton Park looks primed for a 1st up attack here. Has won or run 2nd 5 times from 6 1st up starts. Goes particularly well on a dead/slow surface and likes this track. Blinkers are on here. Competed in the Coolmore and other listed races last campaign. Other hopes to Skytrain, See The World and Zaratone.
Race 7 - Lethal Arrow makes his way up from Melbourne to race here and I think he has a great chance. He prefers the sting out of the track and does his best racing when racing from in front. He should be able to do that here from the good gate and with not much weight. He has been racing in what I would consider tougher races in Melbourne than this affair. Other hopes to Erewhon, Samui Lad and All Legal.
Race 8 - Coup Ay Tee will appreciate the sting out of the ground and can win 1st up here. This horse has only run 1 bad race from 11 starts. Has had 2 good trials leading into this and gets in well at the weights considering it's past results. Past form is superior to the rest. Other hopes to Magic Cassius, Alumbrado and Romanus.
Best Bets
Eagle Farm - Race 6 Number 2 Brambles
Race 7 Number 17 Wealth Princess e/w
Flemington - Race 2 Number 2 Roses In The Glen
Race 7 Number 11 Turner Bayou e/w
Rosehill - Race 6 Number 7 Alberton Park
Race 7 Number 13 Lethal Arrow e/w
Race 5 - It's very hard to go past Sizzling. This horse has been dominant since returning from a spell. He has won all 3 starts and has charged to the line in all 3. The 1600m looks taylor made now. Can race on any surface. Having said all that, I'm not keen on taking the $1.85 currently on offer and will wait and see if that prices improves. Other hopes to Kabayan, Donna Cattiva and Boban.
Race 6 - I keep coming back to Brambles. He ran them ragged last start over 2200m and was very good when winning the start before. He has put together a great record winning 4 from 9 and placing in 4 others. He can handle any going. I don't necessarily think he'll lead here. He should be able to cruise across and take a very handy possie. Other hopes to Vatuvei, Zabeelionaire and Westsouthwest.
Race 7 - I'm very keen on Wealth Princess in the Stradbroke. She has been in sensational form since coming back after a long spell. Last start she didn't like the heavy track but still managed to run just 1.8 lengths off Red Tracer who is a deadset swimmer when carrying 59.5kg. She drops to 53kg here which she'll just cherish. Her record over this distance is excellent. She'll be charging to the line. Other hopes to Buffering, Sea Siren and Temple Of Boom.
Race 8 - I found it hard to separate Mawingo and Lights Of Heaven. I have gone with Lights Of Heaven because I think it can handle a slow/dead track better. She's going very well at the moment and put in a ripper effort last start where she brained them. Meets Scenic Shot 1.5kg better for belting him! Has a poor barrier but I think it can get across easier enough to take up a decent position. Other hopes to Mawingo, Dance With Her and Scenic Shot.
Flemington
Race 1 - Fringed won on debut on the synthetic Geelong surface after leading all the way. Will get a great run from the inside gate here and could do the same again. Has the experienced Steve Arnold to guide.
Race 2 - Roses In The Glen will be right in the finish here. Has won or run 2nd in 7 of it's 8 starts. Can handle any going which is a bonus with the chance of rain about. Although it has a wide gate, it should be able to push across to sit in a handy position. Other hopes to Family Crest, Kasmaher and Houston Benefactor.
Race 3 - Johannapine will be tough to beat here. She has a great record and probably should have won 1st up. Her 2nd up record is perfect, winning 2 from 2. Any dampness in the track will play right into her hands. Hardest to beat is Perturbo.
***With the scratching of Johannapine, I'll make Perturbo my top pick***
Race 4 - I'm really not keen to get involved here so I'll pass.
Race 5 - Perhaps the safe bet here is to take Zamorar and Lady Melksham in a quinella. They are clearly the best 2 in the race. I would put Lady Melksham on top based on how dynamic it won last start. A soft surface won't hurt it's chances.
Race 6 - This looks an open race to me so I'm treating it with caution. I'm going with Chosen To Fly. Looked good winning last start and it's 1st up run in the Wangoom was alright also. Has a horror barrier but I would think that it will be able to come across relatively easily to take up a decent position. Goes very well at this track, winning 2 and running 2nd in 4 starts here. A dead track would be ideal but can handle slow. Other hopes to Glaneuse, Population and Bereft.
Race 7 - I'm taking the tip here from Steven Arnold for Turner Bayou. Arnold doesn't ride at 56kg too often so you know that he must have an opinion of this horse. Last start it narrowly went down to Campeao over 2100m. It meets that horse here better at the weights. 2 starts back it went down to Soros who was a QLD Derby horse before being scratched. Other hopes to Outback Ranger, Campeao and Two Sugars.
Race 8 - Going with Hurdy Gurdy Man in the last. Has been a model of consistency lately. Melham goes back on and he has a super record aboard. He has always won or placed when he's been the jockey. Goes particularly well on dead/slow ground. Other hopes to Finiguerra, Swooper and Crabs.
Rosehill
Race 1 - I'll give this race a miss.
Race 2 - Going with Famous Seamus here. Has put together a decent record of 3 wins from 7 starts. Goes particularly well over this distance with 4 wins or placings from 5 attempts. Can handle a dead/slow surface. Gets 3kg relief with Guymer in the saddle. Should race handy from a good gate. Other hopes to Hendricus, Not A Dancer and Air Comet.
***With the scratching of Famous Seamus, I'll make Hendricus my top pick and promote Battant to the other hopes***
Race 3 - Censor meets Charing Cross 5kg better off here after going down by 3 lengths last start. On a damp track, I think that could be all the difference Censor needs to turn the tables. It has been running on well in it's past few so the 2000m should suit. Other hopes to Charing Cross, Gopanna and Southern Shimmer.
Race 4 - Ideal Position has a great record winning 7 from 14. Those have been in the country but it's last start 4th to Riva De Lago at Scone where it was only 1.8 lengths away after not getting a clear run. Greg Ryan follows it to town which is a good lead. Will need the speed on so it can come home hard. Other hopes to Zedlion, Green Beret and Dunrossil.
Race 5 - Not a race I'm particularly keen on but since it's the 1st leg of the quaddie, I'll look at it. It's a race of many chances. I'm going with Titbit. Won 3rd up last campaign which is where it is at this time around. Goes particularly well on a dead surface but can handle wetter. Other hopes to Madam Nash, Disputes and San Zaim.
Race 6 - Alberton Park looks primed for a 1st up attack here. Has won or run 2nd 5 times from 6 1st up starts. Goes particularly well on a dead/slow surface and likes this track. Blinkers are on here. Competed in the Coolmore and other listed races last campaign. Other hopes to Skytrain, See The World and Zaratone.
Race 7 - Lethal Arrow makes his way up from Melbourne to race here and I think he has a great chance. He prefers the sting out of the track and does his best racing when racing from in front. He should be able to do that here from the good gate and with not much weight. He has been racing in what I would consider tougher races in Melbourne than this affair. Other hopes to Erewhon, Samui Lad and All Legal.
Race 8 - Coup Ay Tee will appreciate the sting out of the ground and can win 1st up here. This horse has only run 1 bad race from 11 starts. Has had 2 good trials leading into this and gets in well at the weights considering it's past results. Past form is superior to the rest. Other hopes to Magic Cassius, Alumbrado and Romanus.
Best Bets
Eagle Farm - Race 6 Number 2 Brambles
Race 7 Number 17 Wealth Princess e/w
Flemington - Race 2 Number 2 Roses In The Glen
Race 7 Number 11 Turner Bayou e/w
Rosehill - Race 6 Number 7 Alberton Park
Race 7 Number 13 Lethal Arrow e/w
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDelete