Friday 24 February 2012

25/02/12 - Caulfield, Rosehill and Eagle Farm

Caulfield

Race 1 - Not a great betting race and it's probably best to sit out.  However I see 2 standout selections which could entice me to an quinella/exacta bet.  These being Spirit Song and Rock Of Ages.  I'm going with Rock Of Ages as it loves a good track, has won over this distance at it's only attempt and carries 5kg's less than Spirit Song.

Race 2 - Hot Spin looks hard to hold out here.  Clearly the class in this race which is proved by a close up 2nd to African Pulse and a 3 length 3rd to Eagle Falls.  Is well weighted considering these results with 57.5kg.  Has Craig Williams riding to counter this.  Will race handy or lead and prove very hard to catch.  Other hopes to It Is Written, The New Boy and Instalment.

Race 3 - This is a tricky race for 3 year olds over 1800m.  Most runners in this race have form around the 1400m range so it's uncertain how they'll handle the extra 400m  I'm going with Dany The Fox.  The horse goes well on a good track winning 2 from 3.  Has run on it's past couple of starts which suggests that it should be able to handle the extra distance.  Will be able to position itself in a good position from the 2 gate.  Other hopes to The Specter, Now You Know and Hoylonny.

Race 4 - There should be a fair speed set here with a number of horses engaged that like to rumble along.  That should help Soft Sand who loves to run on.  She was excellent last start where she blew away her rivals, some are in this.  1st time at this trip but I think she can handle it.  Other hopes to Shopaholic, Anabandana and Nocturnelle. 

Race 5 - I'm a self-proclaimed Pinker Pinker supporter.  Although her record isn't fantastic 1st up (1 3rd from 3), I'm prepared to back her based on her class.  She is good over this distance and will carry 2kg less than the males who she has beaten previously.  The pace in this race should be sufficient enough for her to unleash a nice finish.  Whatever she does today, get on her next start as she's 3 from 3 2nd up!  Other hopes to King Mufhasa, Playing God and Wall Street.

Race 6 - The warning lights are flashing here for me.  The speed should be very solid.  I know the gun horse here is Sepoy but I can't seen him getting an easy time with 58kg.  He may prove me wrong but I'm prepared to take him on.  I'm going to go with Bel Sprinter.  I really liked how he ran on 1st up to win impressively.  I think he's come back a better horse and with just 54kg he'll take some beating.  Other hopes to Sepoy, Woorim and Grand Nirvana. I'll be going wide in at least 1 quaddie.


Race 7 - A fair speed should be set in the Blue Diamond.  Samaready is a quality horse and is a deserved favourite.  However I'm going with Mama's Choice.  The main reason is that I got on her before her 1st start to win this race at massive odds and I want that collect!  Besides that she showed a lot of promise in her 1 and only start where she came from the tail of the field to win.  I can see that style being an advantage in this race with so many speedy types engaged.  The extra 100m will also suit as will the firm track.  Other hopes to Samaready, Applegate and Formidable.


Race 8 - I like the look of Southern Speed here.  Looks to be in terrific shape after 2 runs back from a spell.  Goes really well at this track (last year's Caulfield Cup winner) and likes a good track.   This distance should be perfect at this stage of her preparation.  Other hopes to Manighar, Lucas Cranach and Glass Harmonium.


Race 9 - I was on Princess Narine when she won 1st up.  Her 2nd up 0.2 length 2nd to Speediness has been shown to be very good with Speediness coming out last week and winning nicely.  Barrier 10 is a concern but I think she can get across to be handy.  Goes well at this track and distance.  Other hopes to I'm Discreet, Let's Be Happy and Fashion.


Rosehill


Race 1 - 2 year olds with limited form...no thanks.


Race 2 - 7 runners after early scratchings here.  I won't be getting too involved if at all.  My leaning is towards Laser Hawk.  Has had 2 starts for 2 wins and has looked fairly good doing so.  Drops to 54kg here with the Pumper on board.  Should be able to stalk the leaders and hopefully kick on.  Said Com hardest to beat.


Race 3 - I'm a little gun shy tipping La Remlap here.  The last few starts she's lead and been run down.  That concerns me here to with a number of speed horses engaged that could chip away at her.  However in her favour is that she drops back in class here, likes the sting out of the track and has a good record at this track and distance.  Other hopes to Hurrara, Potions and Mighty Obvious.


Race 4 - Single will do me here.  Has built a nice record thus far, winning 4 from 8.  Has won 3 out of 4 at this track and also won it's only attempt at this distance here.  Should get a delightful run from the peg.  Other hopes to Merchandise, Permit and World Wide.


Race 5 - 8 out of the 9 runners here resume which makes it tough.  Despite the 59.5kg it will lump, I'm going with Secret Admirer.  Put simply, it's got too much class for these.  It's 1st up record is sound, likes a dead track and has won previously over this distance.  Other hopes to Neeson, Triple Elegance and Latin News.


Race 6 - It's hard to go past Rain Affair here.  The price on offer makes it near impossible to bet on though.  Races for the 1st time beyond 1200m but going on the authority in which it won last start you couldn't knock him getting the 1400m.  Excels on a soft surface.  Other hopes to Rangirangdoo, Shoot Out and Startsmeup.


Race 7 - This should be an excellent betting race with more than a handful of winning chances.  I'm going with Dystopia.  Has had a freshen up and races well that way.  Gets Schofield Snr in the saddle and he's got a great record on this horse.  Handles the sting out of the track hasn't been out of the placings from 4 starts at this track and distance.  Other hopes to Balmont, Cabernet and Ofcourseican.


Race 8 - Based on his past 2 starts, Fontelina will be hard to topple here.  Looks to have a lot more going for it than the rest of these.  Goes well on a dead track and over this distance.  Was nominated for a race earlier on the card but connections have selected this as their best hope. I agree.  Other hopes to Romanus, Think Mink and Olinoor.


Eagle Farm (Meeting Abandoned)


Race 1 - Not enough wet track form for these 2 year olds.


Race 2 - Didn't I tell you I hate these 2000m+ races in Brisbane last week and every time they're on?  If you want to have a bet, close your eyes and point your finger at the list.  Pass.


Race 3 - Noble Jester narrowly got the biscuits for us last start and I'm not jumping ship today.  Has been racing really well lately and has a perfect record over this distance and at this track.  Should be able to handle the wet.  Other hopes to I'llbetricked, Bang On and Narcelo.


Race 4 - I've put Arctic on top here.  Won 1st up on a heavy track here.  Looked really good in that effort.  Drops considerably in weight from past runs.  Other hopes to Empress Me, That's Karma and Viking Heart.


Race 5 - God I'm really starting to hate this meeting haha.  I'm going with Ten Seconds in this sprint.  Has shown an ability to handle a wet track.  Has a nice overall record but this could possibly be a bit too short 1st up.  Wet track will be an equaliser.  Other hopes to Felony Flight, Bob And Dolly and Tafeer.  


Race 6 - Finally we've got something we can be fairly confident about.  I like Our Hussey in this. Looks to have superior wet track form over the rest.  Has a great record at this track and distance.  Has also been racing well recently.  Other hopes to Catch The Light, Oak Street and De Bois.


Race 7 - I'm going with a Sydney horse down in the weights here in She's A Rock Star.  Handles a wet track well and has a great record over this distance.  Beat Duke Of Cornwall in the wet and also ran under 4 lengths to Red Tracer last campaign.  Other hopes to The Sixties, Mr Armstrong and General Purple.  


Race 8 - I'll go with Win A Million in the last.  Hasn't done anything fantastic since resuming but has been thereabouts.  Importantly it can handle a wet track and goes very well over this distance.  Cassidy could give her nice time of it in front.  Other hopes to Save A Buck, Mr Slick and Santo De Lago.


Best Bets


Caulfield - Race 2 Number 1 Hot Spin
              Race 4 Number 5 Soft Sand
              Race 8 Number 13 Southern Speed


Rosehill - Race 4 Number 7 Single
              Race 5 Number 1 Secret Admirer 
             Race 8 Number 3 Fontelina

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