Friday 30 December 2011

31/12/11 - Rosehill, Doomben, Morphettville and Moonee Valley

Rosehill

Race 1 - Single looked quite good winning 1st up and I don't see a reason why it can't repeat the dose here.  Has a perfect strike rate at this track and distance.  


Race 2 - Kuhreihen looks a nice horse and I think it can back up it's 1st up win here.  Will be fitter for that effort and will be hard to hold out.  


Race 3 - I'll be watching this 2 year old race.


Race 4 - There's a number of chances in this race.  I've gone with Arawak.  In it's 3 starts, it's won 1 and ran 2nd in the others.  In each race the winning margin has been 0.1 of a length.  So quite possibly this horse could be 3 from 3.  I think this distance is perfect for this guy at this stage.  The 3kg claim for Clipperton gets him down to 50kg and he'll be hard to catch with that light weight.  Other hopes to Flying Zero, Racing Eight and The Owl.


Race 5 - I found it hard to separate several horses here.  I'll work around So So Sure, Bereft, Duke Of Cornwall and Maules Creek in multiples.  All 4 have legitimate claims.  I have a slight leaning to Duke Of Cornwall based on it's light weight, good record over the trip and decent 2nd up record but as I said, a number of chances.


Race 6 - Not overly keen on this race at all.  I'll put New Day Rising on top but I won't be getting too involved, if at all.  Won over this distance at this track 2 starts back.  Just think it has a bit more to offer than most of these.  Other hopes to Parthian, Tromso and Mr Unforgettable.


Race 7 - St Beune should set a reasonable pace in front which hopefully will set it up for horses running on.  That will have to be the case for my top pick Peck to get the win as it gets a long way back.  He got too far back last start but did run on well for 2nd.  Other hopes to King Gladiator, Palasport and Tropicana Girl.


Race 8 - Going with Happy Hussy in the last.  The horse is in good form winning 2 and running 2nd in it's 3 runs this prep.  Should lead and will prove hard to catch.  Other hopes to Rose Of Peace, Titbit and Moorings Capital.  ***Titbit scratched. Oakfield Comet added to the other hopes.


Doomben


Race 1 - I see this as a race in 2 between Hidden Kisses and Santo De Lago.  Perhaps a quinella bet is in order.  I've put Santo De Lago on top because I think it will get a better run than Hidden Kisses.  It's been absolutely charging to the line in it's last few and it will be licking it's lips at the prospect of the extra 200m.  Great record at the track and distance.  Other hopes to Hidden Kisses, Dienekes and Primed.


Race 2 - This is a tricky race.  I haven't been able to settle on 1 but I'll be working around Purettan, Tycoon  Pride, Heart To Fear, Miss Barwang and Dux Bellorum in my multiples.  I'm leaning to Miss Barwang at this stage.


Race 3 - Speed should be solid here which will suit Nuptse.  She should be able to settle in behind the flyers and get a gun run.  Her last start 2 length 5th to Zero Rock wasn't too bad considering she was caught wide.  Other hopes to Inventory, Mr Favulous and Tycoon Tattoo.


Race 4 - I'll be honest, I've had a gutful of these horses and their penchant for sharing the spoils. For that reason I won't put 1 on top but include a few that I'll be including in my multiples.  They are Humma, Racing Heart, Shezahotshot, Maling and Mr Light Blue.


Race 5 - I don't like these 2 year old races but since it's the 1st leg of the Quaddie I'll look at it.  It's going to be a cracking race and I reckon the winner of the Magic Millions could quite possibly come from here.  I've put Driefontein  on top.  The way she ran 3 wide and still won by 3 lengths on debut was something to take note of.  From an inside gate, Berry should give them something to catch.  Other hopes to Discreet, Snipzu, Noogoora Burr and Sizzling.


Race 6 - I'm sticking with Carry Me Bluey.  I don't see a reason to jump ship.  He's finishing his races in tough style and is in a rich vein of form.  Other hopes to Fillydelphia, Kontiki Park and Emvoss.


Race 7 - Going with Biggles in this.  He should possie up nicely and get a great run.  Should be hitting the line with gusto.  Form is hard to ignore.  Other hopes to Rocket To Glory, Easy Running, Show A Prince and Punch On.  


Race 8 - I'm a fan of Thefifthhole but I can't ignore the finishing burst of Tomboy displayed 1st up.  Wow, she was fairly flying.  She has a 3 from 3 record at the distance and has won at this track previously.  Other hopes to Thefifthhole, The Reveller and Prost.  ***The Reveller scratched.  Add Via Del Corso to the other hopes. ***


Morphettville


Race 1 - Assertive Eagle


Race 2 - Miss With Attitude  


Race 3 - Luvbite


Race 4 - Quinella Hidden Value/Counter Sign (Hidden Value scratched. Counter Sign on top)


Race 5 - Streetcar Reality from Mimiele, Believe In More and Triple Tee


Race 6 - Miners Gem but small bets only (Scratched. Kind of happy as I wasn't that keen)


Race 7 - Lady Dynamo from Birdman, Indeed I Am and Kellerman


Race 8 - Secret Vintage from High Finance, Gold Bundle and Aurumcert


Moonee Valley


Race 1 - No thanks


Race 2 - I'll pass on this race also.


Race 3 - I'll go with Roses In The Glen here.  The horse is always around the money and it's 1st up run was good.  Has a great record over this distance.  Other hopes to Delegance, Empress Cleo and Queen Of Roses.


Race 4 - Weekend Special looks a handy type and I think he'll be winning this.  Has never finished worse than 2nd in it's 6 starts and won it's previous start at this track and distance.  Other hopes to The Soldier and General Truce.


Race 5 - I'm going to put faith in the notion that Pied A Terre is a decent horse.  It looked good as a 2 year old and I don't think there's a lot of quality in this race.  If it's anyway decent then it should be beating these.  Other hopes to Costa In The Glen, Reassert and Jugahlation.


Race 6 - I've put Murdoch's Joy on top here.  Has a great record over the distance.  Meets Jetconi 4kg better off for getting beaten by it by 2 lengths 2 starts back.  Too many other hopes to list.


Race 7 - Bel Sir looks good value around the $8 mark.  Comes into this off a win over this distance at this track.  Will race with basically the same weight after the claimer.  Other hopes to Slippery Satin, Apres and Bold Trojan.


Race 8 - The last looks an open affair but I've gone with the impressive last start winner Show Up.  Although it was on a heavy surface, the way it beat Big Spirit in it's 1st up Australian run was  good stuff.  Should be able to go on with it here.  Other hopes to Big Spirit, Centexpress and Paparazzi Dreamer.  ***Paparazzi Dreamer scratched.  Add Obsidian Dragon to the other hopes ***


Best Bets


Rosehill - Race 1 Number 5 Single
             Race 2 Number 3 Kuhreihen
             Race 7 Number 5 Peck


Doomben - Race 3 Number 9 Nuptse
               Race 6 Number 5 Carry Me Bluey
               Race 8 Number 6 Tomboy


Morphettville - Race 2 Number 4 Miss With Attitude 
                    Race 5 Number 7 Streetcar Reality


Moonee Valley - Race 4 Number 6 Weekend Special
                      Race 7 Number 1 Bel Sir

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