Friday 25 November 2011

26/11/11 - Sandown, Canterbury and Eagle Farm

What a nightmare last Saturday was.  Cleaned up in Brisbane with all the favourites saluting and the 2 best bets for Ascot both got up.  However there was little else to be joyous about and I will be putting that well behind me.  Hopefully there's some better results this Saturday! Fingers crossed!

Sandown

Race 1 - A 5 horse 2 year old race where none of the horses have raced before. Pass.

Race 2 - I'll be giving this race a miss with only 6 horses engaged.

Race 3 - Yet another small field but I'll have a small wager on She's Gifted.  The horse has never been out of a place in it's 7 starts.  Symons takes the ride as he has in 5 of those races.  Goes well over the distance and can handle any going.  Hardest to beat is Always Discreet.

Race 4 - This is a tricky race with the majority of the field having a chance.  I've gone with Crafty Cruiser.  One thing is certain with this guy and that's he'll be running out the 2400m.  Has yet to win over the distance but has placed in 3 of his 4 starts at it.  Other hopes to Shezaten, Musical Hit and Sea Galleon.  

Race 5 - Again we are confronted with a race of many chances.  I have gone with Abitofado.  The horse has a good record at the track and distance.  It can handle all going but would be advantaged if the track worsened.  3kg off for the apprentice will help.  Other hopes to Full Peal, Pacino and Snitza.

Race 6 - I like the look of Freereturn here.  Will be able to get across and in just behind the speed.  Has a good record over the distance and can handle any going.  Has been stepping up through the grades nicely.  Other hopes to Dash Of Viz, Under The Hat and Wealthy Lad.

Race 7 - Based on a sheer class factor, Miss Octopussy should be hard to beat.  However I would not be getting carried away at the price on offer.  Yes it has a good record at the distance and on a good to dead track.  However it still has to lump 57kg after the claim and comes from a wide gate.  Her 3rd to Ortensia 2 starts back should hold her in good stead.  Other hopes to Princess Maggie, Happy Joker and Lady Pania.  
 
***With the scratching of Miss Octopussy, I'll promote Princess Maggie to my top selection and add Big Spirit to the hopes***

Race 8 - Snow Cover will get well back but I believe there will be adequate speed for this fellow to come home with a charge.  He is in top form with close 3rds to Under The Eiffel and Its Prince in it's past 2 starts.  Other hopes to Scaredymac, Population and Cadenzia.

Canterbury

Race 1 - 2 year old race on a heavy track. No thanks.

Race 2 - I won't be getting carried away with this race as there looks to be many genuine chances.  I will be going with Charm's Honour.  She has proven herself in wet conditions and more importantly being able to carry a fair weight while doing it.  She should get a nice handy run.        Her 0.4 length 2nd to Streama on heavy looks good for this.  Other hopes to Cindarockinrella, Whitlam and Upbeat.


Race 3 - It's hard to go past Atomic Force.  This fellow is an absolute beast in the wet, winning 3 of his 6 go's on heavy.  Has the in form apprentice Schofield on top taking 3kg off.  Tuned up for this with a trial win earlier in the week.  Hardest to beat is Tiger Tees.


Race 4 - I'm a little concerned about the gate and the way Lil And Grace races but I'm going to take a chance on her.  She loves the track and distance, goes well in the wet and most importantly will race with 50.5kg thanks to Schofield's claim.  Her last start win was hard to ignore where she came from 8 lengths off the lead on the turn.  Other hopes to Savannah's Choice, General's Sniper and Lycra Lass.

***With the scratching of Lycra Lass, I'll add Fill The Page to the other hopes***

Race 5 - Honourable Aussie has been racing in nice touch lately, winning his last 2 over this distance range.  Has a couple of wins on heavy.  Should lead easily and will prove hard to run down with Bowman on board.  Other hopes to Palasport, Hard Liquor and Letchworth.


Race 6 - I'm quite wary of this race. Looks to be an open affair.  I'm going with Strike One.  Loves the track and distance and goes well in the wet.  Won 1st up over this distance last start.  Other hopes to Yulalona, Levi's Choice and Legsman.

***With the scratching of Legsman, I'll promote Scottish Border to the hopes***

Race 7 - Shamus looks right in this.  It has won both starts on rain affected tracks and has a good record at the track and distance.  Should be able to camp up on the speed and get a really nice run.  Other hopes to Liechtenstein, Barsinola and Ravna Gora.

***With the scratching of Barsinola, I'll promote Lining to the other hopes***

Race 8 - Going with Rampart in the last.  After the apprentice's claim, this bloke gets in with 50.5 kg.  Has a good record at the track and distance and appears to handle heavy going well.  If Shamus runs well in the previous then my confidence levels will be raised with this guy.  Other hopes to O'Crikey, Stratana and Secession.

***With the scratching of Stratana, I'll promote We Betcha to the hopes***

Eagle Farm


Race 1 - 2 year olds, limited form, questionable surface.  Pass.


Race 2 - I'll stick with Double Image.  He goes well on all going and has been flying lately.  Think he can sit just off Tycoon Tattoo and unleash hot fury in the straight.  Other hopes to Inventory, Steel Zip and Geared Up.


Race 3 - I'm not overly keen on this race.  There looks to be quite a few chances.  I'll have a small wager on Eureka Jack.  I'm putting a lot of faith into the fact that he ran on well in his last 2 starts which suggests the 2100m should suit.  If there happens to be a downpour tomorrow then  that would increase his chances.  Other hopes to Three Red Roses, Red God and Clangor.


Race 4 - A number of these that I like have drawn wide.  Would have given them some serious consideration if they had drawn closer.  I really like the look of Pretty Pins.  Looks to be able to handle any going and has drawn the 2 gate.  It's last start 3rd to Il Cardinale should be terrific form for this.  The claimer on board is an added bonus.  Other hopes to Dorchester, Hidden Jewel and Playtime.


Race 5 - I'll go with Fire Up Fifi in this.  She hasn't raced this distance before but going by the way she's been finishing off, I would think that it won't be a problem.  Will have no dramas with a damp track.  Reckon she's up to her eyeballs in this.  Other hopes to Geblitzt, Pegunny Cat and Kar Ma Te.


Race 6 - I'll have to go with Mr Consistency, Il Cardinale.  This bloke hasn't put a bad run in this campaign.  Has a good record over the distance and can handle any going.  Should get a nice run in transit.  Other hopes to From London, Mr Light Blue and Grey Assignment. 


Race 7 - This should be a great race to watch but tricky to bet on.  There's a handful of these that have winning chances but given the prospect of a rain affected track, I have gone with Ready To Rip.  I suspect there will be a bit of speed on and from the gate he should get back and fingers crossed will be coming over the top.  Has a good record at the track and distance.  Other hopes to Essington, Excellantes and Spirit Of Boom.


Race 8 - Pretty keen on Skating On Ice in the last.  There's a lot to like about her. Loves the distance, handles all going and should get a lovely run.  Should be cherry ripe for this.  Other hopes to Sway To Go, Imeldamay and Aquatorial.  


Best Bets


Sandown - Race 6 Number 10 Freereturn
                Race 8 Number 8 Snow Cover


Canterbury - Race 3 Number 1 Atomic Force
                  Race 7 Number 4 Shamus


Eagle Farm - Race 4 Number 3 Pretty Pins
                  Race 8 Number 7 Skating On Ice     

Friday 18 November 2011

19/11/11 - Moonee Valley, Warwick Farm, Doomben and Ascot

G'day punters.  Last week was a little frustrating.  From the 28 races looked at, 23 of the top selections ran in the first 3.  Unfortunately only 10 of these were winners.  Hopefully we'll be able to convert a few more of the placegetters into wins this week.

Moonee Valley

Race 1 - Roxit should be further improved from it's 1st up win over this distance and at this track. In that race, she was able to sit outside the leader but from a better gate here should be able to camp just behind the lead and boot clear in the straight.  I feel she has a bit more upside than the rest.  Other hopes to Rescue Mission, Silver Falls and Gotta Laugh.

Race 2 - Pergola looks right in this.  I'm unconvinced that the bulk of these horses can actually run the 3000m out.  Pergola won at the track and distance at his only start.  He's also won 3 times out of 4 attempts at the track.  His Kyneton Cup 3rd should top him off for this.  Other hopes to Jumpin Jack Cash, Palmero and Prussian Officer.

Race 3 - I'm not a fan of this race but I have settled on Saint Angers.  Before it's last race where it was aiming a bit high, the horse was in good form.  Has won or placed in all bar 1 of it's 8 starts.  Should be able to sit up on the speed or even lead and could run these ragged.  Other hopes to Mikeys Magic, Dashalot and Limerock.

Race 4 - Going with Florets here.  Has a good overall record and ran 3rd to Atlantic Jewel at it's only go at this track.  Should be handy in the run and goes well on the fresh side.  Other hopes to Boulevard Betty, The Fairy's Kiss and Reigning Lass. 

Race 5 - Cat's Pyjamas looks a nice chance in this race.  Has the great trainer/jockey combo of Kavanagh and Rodd. Straight away, you're in it.  Besides that, the horse has a great 1st up record, super over the distance and has placed in it's only start at the track.  Other hopes to Avionics, Miss Elvee and Tottenham Girl.
 
***With the scratching of Miss Elvee and Tottenham Girl, I'll promote Fabulist and Zeftabaa***

Race 6 - I've stuck with Eraset here.  He was enormous last start when he narrowly went down to He's Remarkable.  Let's face it, this bloke is due after going down by 0.1 of a length in his past 2 runs.  He has a great record at the distance and also at the track. Other hopes to Cosmic Causeway, The Wingman and Veewap.

Race 7 - I won't be getting terribly involved in this race.  Seems a wide open affair.  I'll go with Bellissimo with my fingers firmly crossed.  The horse should lead and I think it's chances will hinge on whether it can control things easily from there.  It's a concern that the horse has a history of being nutted on or close to the line.  Perhaps the Valley will assist it in this regard.  Other hopes to Finiguerra, Galileo Gold and Ship In The Night.

Race 8 - There's some speedy customers engaged here and no shortage of horses that like to lead.  That could set it up for something running on provided there's no bias against that.  I'm going to go with Rocking Force.  I feel he can settle just behind the speed and capitalise on a fast pace.  He has a good record at the track and distance. His last start win was full of merit.  Other hopes to Definitely Ready, Canali and Master Harry. 


Warwick Farm


Race 1 - A 2 year old fillies race where only 2 horses have raced before.  No thanks.


Race 2 - I'll go with Mikiyama here.  Has a class edge over these as shown by it's top weight.  Has a great record over the distance and a fair 1st up record.  Other hopes to Revolt, Dal Rommel and Hard Liquor.


Race 3 - This is a tricky race in regards to working out where they'll all settle down.  A possible wet track also throws a spanner in the works.  I'm going with Saint Etienne.  The horse has placed in all 3 of it's starts with it's most recent result a 3rd in the Group 3 Carbine Club where it ran 0.3 of length of Galah.  That should hold it in good stead here.  Other hopes to Colorado Claire, Hendricus and Euryale.


Race 4 - Another tough race.  I think Pretty Composed could run a race here.  Is undefeated in it's 3 starts.  Won last start on slow track here.  Extra distance shouldn't be a problem based on the way it ran on.  Other hopes to Urgent Bells, Next The Universe and Oakfield Comet.


Race 5 - This isn't a race I'm too keen to get involved in.  In these types of races, the horses seem to take turns at winning.  Having said that, I'm going with Altonio.  It can handle all conditions and comes off a reasonable effort at Flemington.  It might have a bit more improvement in it than it's rivals.  Other hopes to Merenksy Reef, Old Bill and Pregrada.


Race 6 - Scarf was pretty good to us last preparation and I'll be with him here 1st up.  His 1st up record isn't that great but he did win 1st up last prep.  Besides Title, this is a pretty moderate bunch and I think Scarf will be too strong.  Other hopes to Title, Altered Boy and Without Compromise.


Race 7 - I'm going to stick with Rosie's Reward.  Can handle a soft track and gets in nicely with the claim for the Hyeronimus.  Goes well for the jockey.  From the gate, she should be able to lead or settle in just behind the leaders.  Other hopes to Riebeek, Nuptse and So So Sure.


Race 8 - Rolling Pin will do me in the last.  The horse drops in weight, has a good record at this track and distance and can handle all going.  Should be able to make full use of the peg.  Other hopes to Trauma, Chateau Fort and Riding To Win.


Doomben


Race 1 - Sitting out this 2 year old race.


Race 2 - I'll be honest, I've had a gutful of these 2000m type races in Brisbane.  Thought Racing Heart was an absolute special last time it went around, only for it to finish 5th.  I won't be getting too involved here as the price doesn't allow it but I'd put Rundle on top.  It impressed me last start when I gave the handicapper a serve for weighting it out of the race.  I was wrong.  It really dug in with 58kg and drops to 55.5kg here.  Will go well.  Other hopes to Racing Heart, Eureka and Walpersdorf.

***Eureka and Walpersdorf have been scratched. No replacements as I was only being polite including them in the first place.  No hope really.***

Race 3 - I'll be with Mossriver in this.  Has a great overall record and has started this campaign with 2 wins.  Should be looking for the 1350m now.  Other hopes to Hidden Kisses, Zigzag and Marsh Harbour.


Race 4 - Would loved to have seen Dux Bellorum draw a better gate here because I think if it had, it would have really given Cape Kidnappers a go.  It still may however we backed Cape Kidnappers on Cup day and boy did he deliver.  It's won it's 2 starts by 7.8 and 6 lengths.  Clearly it has potential.  Perhaps the best bet here is to take them in a quinella given the short price for CK.  


Race 5 - Going with Alltherightmoves here.  It's only had the 5 starts but has won 4 of them.  Each time handling the step up in grade nicely.  Importantly all 4 wins have been over this distance.  Other hopes to Catashee, Liesele and Norocos.


Race 6 - Saraji grabbed the cash for us last start and I'll be sticking with her here.  I think she'll be able to get a similar run as last start and dictate terms in front.  Will be hard to catch.  Other hopes to Amber's Crown, Seiyo and High On Believing.


Race 7 - I suspect Fillydelphia will be too strong again.  Her 3 runs back have been full of merit and I can't see a reason to jump off the bandwagon now.  Other hopes to Wonderful Lass, Rockdale and Writer.


Race 8 - I'm getting a vibe for Theft in the last.  The horse is racing in tremendous touch at the moment, winning all 4 starts this campaign.  I feel that he'll be able to either lead or sit in the 1st few and boot clear in the straight.  Should get a glorious ride from the 4 alley.  Other hopes to Carry Me Bluey, Danagaze and Dusty Gold.


Ascot


Race 1 - Keepers Court from Classic Emblem
Race 2 - Morning Mist from Thunderluv'n
Race 3 - Maschino from Forever Special
Race 4 - Our Ol' Fella from Grey Monarch
Race 5 - God Has Spoken from Western Jewel
Race 6 - Bontiara from Answers Are
Race 7 - Ron's Call from Red Hot Sax
Race 8 - He's Remarkable from Ranger
Race 9 - Ortensia from Rarefied
Race 10 - Latoria from The Entourage


Best Bets 


Moonee Valley - Race 5 Number 2 Cat's Pyjamas 
                      Race 6 Number 6 Eraset


Warwick Farm - Race 2 Number 1 Mikiyama
                      Race 6 Number 5 Scarf
                      Race 8 Number 13 Rolling Pin


Doomben - Race 2 Number 2 Rundle
               Race 6 Number 2 Saraji
               Race 7 Number 3 Fillydelphia


Ascot - Race 9 Number 11 Ortensia
           Race 10 Number 8 Latoria 
     

Friday 11 November 2011

12/11/11 - Sandown, Rosehill, Eagle Farm and Toowoomba Selections

Sandown

Race 1 - I'll be following my rule of not betting on an early season 2 year old races.  Too many unknowns. 

Race 2 - This is a tough race to line up.  On 1 hand you have the form coming out of the Lexus Hybrid and on the other the form from the Gucci.  I'm going with Miss Stellabelle.  She's been racing well and I think the 1400m should suit.  She'll find herself in a nice position from barrier 4.  Other hopes to Combat Kitty, Shopaholic and Anise.

Race 3 - Norsqui looks the one here.  Comes off a strong win last start over 2800m and has form around Niwot over this distance.  Goes well on a dead surface.  Other hopes to Jumpin Jack Cash, Olympic Win and Crafty Cruiser.

Race 4 - Like the look of Parables here.  We were on her last start when she got held up down the Flemington straight but still managed to run on for 3rd.  1300m should suit. She has form around Pinker Pinker, Red Tracer and Mid Summer Music.  Other hopes to Veewap, Cash Bound and Masthead.

***With the scratching of Veewap, I'll promote Doubtful Jack to the other hopes***

Race 5 - It looks hard to go past Under The Eiffel.  Has come back in great fettle, winning it's past 2 starts.  Drops 5kg on it's last win and likes the sting out of the track. Other hopes to Sistine Angel, Nine Tails and Rockpecker.

Race 6 - I won't be getting involved in this 5 horse race.  I would imagine Americain will be very hard to beat given that all runners on equal weights and the way he finished the Melbourne Cup.  No value though.  

Race 7 - I think there could be a fair level of speed on here with a number of horses engaged that like to lead.  For that reason, I'm going with Galah.  From an inside draw, McEvoy should be able to position him just off the speed and run over the top of them.  Other hopes to Mahisara, Highly Recommended and Amah Rock.


Race 8 - Got a vibe about Folding Gear in this.  The horse has only had the 6 starts but has won 2 of those and placed twice.  Last campaign it won the Group 2 Autumn Classic and ran 3rd in the Group 2 Alister Clark.  Has won both it's starts at the track and 1 of those races was over this distance.  Other hopes to Erewhon, Ginga Dude and Extra Zero.


Race 9 - Going with Hi Belle in the last.  Has a liking for the track and comes into this race in good form.  Should be able to possy up just behind the lead and should be running on well.  Other hopes to Sophie's Spirit, Hinemoa and Yavanna.


Rosehill


Race 1 - 2 year old race with limited form.  I'll be avoiding it.


Race 2 - This looks a nice race.  I reckon we could be looking at a few decent horses for the future here.  I'm going with Sindarin.  It won it's debut but botched the start by a few lengths.  The runner up ran well in listed company next start.  Should be further improved.  Other hopes to Colorado Claire, Yurrrapendi and Urban Rocker.

***Update: Urban Rocker has been scratched. I won't add any as I think these 3 have it covered***

Race 3 - I'm going with Sacred Pins.  It should be able to get an unchallenged lead which could be beneficial if there is any track bias to leaders with the rail out 8m.  This horse looked a nice type on debut and has a 4kg advantage over the top weight.  Other hopes to Star Mystery, Cindarockinrella and Embark.


Race 4 - Savannah's Choice grabbed the cash for us last start and I'll be sticking with her again.  I imagine there will be a solid pace set and she'll be able to camp just off them from the nice draw.   Has a good record at this track and also the distance.  Other hopes to Winner Take All, Rain Special and Blurred Vision.


Race 5 - Here's another horse that won for us last start that I'll be sticking with in Stratana.  Loves this distance and has won at the track before.  With 50kg after the claim, this fellow will be very hard to run down.  Other hopes to Sea Lord, Regal Banter and Rumour And Scandal.


Race 6 - I like Embarrassed in this.  Confidence levels will be raised if Stratana goes well in the previous.  Looks like that this horse will be able to lead reasonably easily.  Is unbeaten at the track and 2nd up.  Went oh so close last start to winning.  Other hopes to My Destiny, Gilded Spur and Strumming.


Race 7 - It's hard to go past Riva De Lago.  His 2 runs back from a spell for 2 wins have been impressive.  He should get a nice cart into this race and will take a tonne of stopping.  Other hopes to Lightinthenite, Coup Ay Tee and Revolt.  

***With the scratching of Revolt, I'll promote Circle Of Power***

Race 8 - I'll be respecting the fact that Fawkner has been brought up from Melbourne for this.  Let's face it, he's not hear to do sexy things to spiders.  Besides that, he looked good winning last start.  Other hopes to Gazza Guru, Scouting Wide and Guderian.  


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - Won't be much value to be had here with only 5 horses going around.  If you must then I'd be looking at Ready To Rip.  Clearly he's the class runner of the field.  Won 1st up with 62kg, drops back to 56kg here.  3 from 3 over the distance. 


Race 2 - 2 year olds. No form, no thanks.


Race 3 - I was on Rosagaze last start when it got nutted on the line.  I'll be sticking with her.  Last start she ran wide but gets a favourable draw here and should be prominent.  Still down in the weights and should be right in this.  Other hopes to Il Cardinale, Dusty Gold and On Face Value.

***With the scratching of Dusty Gold, I'll promote Koronovsky as a chance***

Race 4 - Our Recidivist looks weighted to win here.  Seriously, what was the handicapper thinking when he weighted Our Recidivist and Rundle?  Our Recidivist goes up 0.5kg for beating Rundle last start.  While Rundle goes up a whopping 3.5kg for running 2nd?  That's madness.  I suggest the handicapper be swabbed!  Besides the weight advantage, Our Recidivist is in great form winning it's past 3.  Other hopes to Rundle, Loves A Challenge and Red God.


Race 5 - Like the look of Morning Captain.  Looked good winning last start over a similar distance and should get all the favours from a nice inside draw.  Other hopes to Playtime, All Quality and Brauhauser.  


Race 6 - I'm going with Kar Ma Te here.  It's won it's past 2 races well.  Admittedly this is a lot harder but the horse seems to be improving with each run and the further the better.  Munce should give it a top ride.  Other hopes to Princess Lyca, Kiss Me Deadly and Grey Assignment.  


Race 7 - Excellantes should win this.  There looks to be a fair bit in it's favour here. Class runner, great gate and great record over the distance.  One glaring negative though is the price on offer. Currently under $2 and I'd imagine they'll be jumping from trees to get on tomorrow.  Having run 2nd in both it's 1st up starts, you'd have to consider whether you'd want to risk taking a short price.  Still will be hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Audacious Spirit, Celtic Dancer and Captain Clayton.


Race 8 - Think we have to respect the 2nd up form of Geblizt.  From 3 2nd up runs, the horse has won 1 and come 2nd in the other 2.  Her 1st up run this time in showed what a powerful finish it has.  From a better gate I suspect she'll take a lot of beating.  Other hopes to Thefifthhole, Show Me An Ace and African Mama.


Toowoomba


I should warn you that I don't follow Toowoomba racing and the only reason I've included these selections is because a family friend is having a "function" there and asked for some tips.  So if you're looking at them, I'd only suggest backing them if you're up on the day.  


Race 1 - Silver Command
Race 2 - Peterhof
Race 3 - Unpublished Critic
Race 4 - Winning Moments
Race 5 - Mr Thatcher
Race 6 - Bannett
Race 7 - Margins (Scratched, no replacement in a small field)


Best Bets


Sandown - Race 3 Number 1 Norsqui
               Race 4 Number 9 Parables
               Race 5 Number 9 Under The Eiffel
               Race 7 Number 1 Galah


Rosehill - Race 3 Number 5 Sacred Pins
             Race 5 Number 9 Stratana
             Race 6 Number 7 Embarrassed
             Race 7 Number 7 Riva De Lago


Eagle Farm - Race 3 Number 12 Rosagaze 
                  Race 4 Number 3 Our Recidivist
                  Race 5 Number 2 Morning Captain

Friday 4 November 2011

05/11/11 - Flemington, Randwick and Doomben Selections

Flemington

Race 1 - Field of 16 2 year olds....No thanks.

Race 2 - I think Eraset looks a solid chance in this.  Comes off a 0.1 length 2nd to Happy Trails.  Eraset gets a 3kg weight advantage over Happy Trails in this.  He has a great record at the 1600m and should get a nice cart into the race.  Other hopes to Erewhon, Happy Trails, He's Remarkable and Shenzhou Steeds.  

Race 3 - This is a really tough race.  I'm going to go for a horse that is showing a bit of promise in Con Act.  Last start it ran 1.1 lengths off Fawkner for 3rd.  That horse won well on Oaks Day.  Just think Con Act has a lot of room for improvement as opposed to the rest.  2000m should really suit this horse given the way it's been finishing off past runs.  Other hopes to Texan Warney, Model To Nite and Chartreux.  


Race 4 - I like the look of Mahisara in this.  Comes from the in form Messara stable and has run in some nice races in it's previous campaign.  It's 1st up 3rd to Hot Snitzel will put it in good stead for this.  Other hopes to Mental, Absalon and Toned.


Race 5 - Watch Black Caviar win her 16th start. I'm thinking by about 5.2 lengths.  


Race 6 - Going to stick with King's Rose.  Thought it was going pretty well when hammered when entering the straight in the Cox Plate.  Loves the 1600m and has run its best races at this distance.  Other hopes to Secret Admirer, Testa My Patience and Red Tracer.


Race 7 - Platinum Passion is the way I'll be going here.  McEvoy should be able to settle her just behind the leaders and get a good run.  Her past 2 starts over 2000m have been solid hit outs for this.  Other hopes to Skyerush, Dance With Her and Stole.


Race 8 - Can't go past Bauer.  I actually had money on it to win the Melbourne Cup and was bitterly disappointed when it missed a start.  The way it finished off the Geelong Cup was impressive.  Dunaden has franked the GC run by winning the MC on Tuesday.  Other hopes to Macedonian, Boom 'N' Zoom and Ironstein.


Race 9 - Not overly keen on the final event so only a small bet for me on Amaethon.  Reckon this is a very open race but this guy has some consistent results at the 1400m.  Something most of them don't have.  Weight is a concern.  Other hopes to Candle, Stirling Grove and Outlandish Lad.


Randwick


I'm not keen on the first 4 races on this card so I won't bother looking at them.  Actually I'm not keen on the entire meeting but I'll go through the quaddie races.


Race 5 - Going to go with Straight Albert.  Although the horse enjoys racing over longer trips, it's 2nd up form and the way it ran on 1st up put it right in this race.  Other hopes to Mentality, One Way Ticket and Without Compromise.

***With the scratching of Mentality, I'll add Sir Nick to the other hopes***

Race 6 -  Done Nothin' Wrong will do me here.  Could lead or be handy.  Last 2 starts it has won by leading but importantly showed a nice boot to the line.  Other hopes to Nextanix, Levi's Choice and Samui Lad.

***With the scratching of Done Nothin' Wrong, I'll promote Nextanix to top spot and bring in Hard Liquor to the other hopes***

Race 7 - I have a slight lean towards Charm's Honour over Bound To Blush in this.  Charm's Honour should be able to sit just off BTB and come over the top.  2 starts back Charm's Honour finished 2nd to Streama by 0.4 lengths.  Admittedly that was on heavy going but still the horse obviously has some class.  Other hopes to Bound To Blush, Epona Princess and Ingham Magic.

***With the scratching of Bound To Blush, I'll promote Chi Chi to the other hopes***

Race 8 - Sticking with Rosie's Reward in the last.  Last start we came so close to getting the chocolates, only to be bloused on the line.  Should get the gun run here.  Other hopes to Ready Steady Vetti, Trilione and Outstandingly.


Doomben


Race 1 - Won't entertain this 2 year old race. 


Race 2 - A bit of variety wouldn't go astray in these Brisbane 2000m+ events.  Racing Heart looks hard to beat here with the weight advantage.  Simply looks too good.  Other hopes to Eureka, Chilled and Carbon Art.


Race 3 - Like the look of Cornwall Park in this.  Really liked the way he's finished off the 2 runs back from a spell.  Suggests that 1600m will be ideal.  Other hopes to Wonderful Lass, Anchor Bolt and Rockdale.


Race 4 - I'm approaching this race with trepidation.  Putting Double Image on top based on it's good record and great last start win.  Has next to no weight.  As long as nothing goes wrong then it should go close to winning.  Other hopes to Bruleur, Seventh Heart and Prime Cognac.

***With the scratching of Prime Cognac, I'll promote Extra Exceleration to the other hopes***
Race 5 - I've gone with Saraji.  Most of the hopes in this race have drawn wide.  This filly should be able to camp up on the leaders backs from the 8 gate with minimal effort.  All 3 of it's wins have come over this distance and will carry just 52kg after the claim.  Other hopes to Royal Shout, Mr Favulous and Amber's Crown.

***With the scratching of Amber's Crown, I'll add Military Grace to the other hopes***
Race 6 - Sticking with Havatryst after he grabbed the cash for us last start.  Has a great record at the trip and solid 2nd up form.  Should go on with it here.  Other hopes to Carry Me Bluey, Sway To Go and Danagaze.


Race 7 - Based on it's last start run, it's hard to go past Skating On Ice.  Was wide throughout but still ended up only 2 lengths off the winner.  The horse has a great record at the distance and should get a great run in transit.  You just have to look at it's runs in the Fred Best and GC Guineas to see that this is a very nice horse.  Other hopes to Liesele, Fire Up Fifi and Tafeer.


Race 8 - This looks like a battle between Poor Judge and Fillydelphia.  I'm going with Fillydelphia. From the peg, she should be able to get a nice spot close to the action.  Whereas Poor Judge may be hung out to dry a bit from his gate.  That might just be the advantage she needs to out run them this time.  Other hopes to Poor Judge, Prost and Writer.


Best Bets


I'm a little bit reluctant to list the best bets as they've let me down lately.  


Flemington - Race 4 Number 2 Mahisara
                  Race 8 Number 1 Bauer
                  
Randwick - Race 8 Number 3 Rosie's Reward


Doomben - Race 2 Number 1 Racing Heart
               Race 3 Number 2 Cornwall Park  
               Race 6 Number 9 Havatryst 
               Race 7 Number 8 Skating On Ice

Wednesday 2 November 2011

03/11/11 - Flemington Oaks Day

Hope you all had a win Melbourne Cup day.  Looking through the Oaks card, we'll be needing a massive amount of luck to come out of it alive.  So if you're having a bet, I suggest you wear your lucky jocks or get your hands on every good luck charm possible.  Best of Luck!        


Flemington

Race 1 - I found this a hard race to start the day.  I'm going with Orbital Motion.  The horse has been quite good since joining the Kavanagh stable with a 2nd and a 1st.  I think Rodd can position the horse nicely in the run and give it every chance.  The 1800m should be not be a problem.  Other hopes to Fawkner, Dead End, Elusive King and Grand Ginger.

Race 2 - This appears to be a very even race and I've found it quite difficult to separate them.  I settled on Oasis Bloom.  Thought it offered a bit of value after finishing 0.1 of a length off Saint Etienne on debut.  That horse then went on to run 3rd to Galah. If Oasis Bloom has improved then it should go very close.  Other hopes to Quench The Thirst, Twilighting and Cliques.


Race 3 - Yet another tricky race.  I've gone with the favourite Valentine Miss.  I'm not overly keen on the price but I keep getting drawn back to her.  She should have won last start and the start prior finished 2nd to the in form Sister Madly.  She'll be running on and just needs a clear passage to be in the finish.  Other hopes to Miss Octopussy, Ortensia and Dystopia.


Race 4 - I like the look of Satin Shoes here.  Her past 2 starts have been full of merit.  Last start she ran just 1.7 lengths off Sepoy.  From the peg she should be able to dictate terms here.  Other hopes to Anise, Miss Stellabelle and Vain Attraction.


Race 5 - My ratings have Lime Rock clearly on top.  She has a perfect 3 from 3 record at this distance and won 3rd up in both her previous campaigns.  On face value her 2 previous runs aren't   stand out performances but I think they've been solid all the same and will put her right in this.  Other hopes to Dash For Viz, Chosen To Fly and King Cobweb.


Race 6 - I'm really not keen on having a bet in the Oaks.  It's a terrible looking race.  The class runner is Mosheen but has never run beyond 1600m and now has to get 2500m.  I'm prepared to back against her.  I've fallen into Dowager Queen with not much confidence.  Her fast finishing but luckless 2nd 2 starts back at least says to me that she'll run the 2500m out.  Other hopes to Rahveel, Mosheen and Gliding.


Race 7 - Going with Proliferate in this.  Just think that it's got a lot more upside than most of these.  It's undefeated in it's 2 starts and won despite the saddle shifting.  Other hopes to Torah, Now You Know and Euryale.


Race 8 - Master Harry ticks a lot of boxes here.  A perfect 2 from 2 at the track and distance and a good 1st up record.  I should be sitting just off the pace and will unleash a powerful finishing burst. Other hopes to Perturbo, First Command and Rocking Force.

***With the scratching of First Command, I'll promote Rocky Times to the other hopes.***

Race 9 - Don't mind the look of Cosmic Causeway in the last.  It has a good record at the trip and is coming off a very good run in the Sale Cup.  Likes the sting out of the track.  Other hopes to Belgietto, Face Off and Snow Cover.   


Better Bets As Opposed To Best Bets


Race 5 Number 4 Lime Rock
Race 8 Number 5 Master Harry
Race 9 Number 4 Cosmic Causeway