G'day punters. Last week was a little frustrating. From the 28 races looked at, 23 of the top selections ran in the first 3. Unfortunately only 10 of these were winners. Hopefully we'll be able to convert a few more of the placegetters into wins this week.
Moonee Valley
Race 1 - Roxit should be further improved from it's 1st up win over this distance and at this track. In that race, she was able to sit outside the leader but from a better gate here should be able to camp just behind the lead and boot clear in the straight. I feel she has a bit more upside than the rest. Other hopes to Rescue Mission, Silver Falls and Gotta Laugh.
Race 2 - Pergola looks right in this. I'm unconvinced that the bulk of these horses can actually run the 3000m out. Pergola won at the track and distance at his only start. He's also won 3 times out of 4 attempts at the track. His Kyneton Cup 3rd should top him off for this. Other hopes to Jumpin Jack Cash, Palmero and Prussian Officer.
Race 3 - I'm not a fan of this race but I have settled on Saint Angers. Before it's last race where it was aiming a bit high, the horse was in good form. Has won or placed in all bar 1 of it's 8 starts. Should be able to sit up on the speed or even lead and could run these ragged. Other hopes to Mikeys Magic, Dashalot and Limerock.
Race 4 - Going with Florets here. Has a good overall record and ran 3rd to Atlantic Jewel at it's only go at this track. Should be handy in the run and goes well on the fresh side. Other hopes to Boulevard Betty, The Fairy's Kiss and Reigning Lass.
Race 5 - Cat's Pyjamas looks a nice chance in this race. Has the great trainer/jockey combo of Kavanagh and Rodd. Straight away, you're in it. Besides that, the horse has a great 1st up record, super over the distance and has placed in it's only start at the track. Other hopes to Avionics, Miss Elvee and Tottenham Girl.
Race 6 - I've stuck with Eraset here. He was enormous last start when he narrowly went down to He's Remarkable. Let's face it, this bloke is due after going down by 0.1 of a length in his past 2 runs. He has a great record at the distance and also at the track. Other hopes to Cosmic Causeway, The Wingman and Veewap.
Race 7 - I won't be getting terribly involved in this race. Seems a wide open affair. I'll go with Bellissimo with my fingers firmly crossed. The horse should lead and I think it's chances will hinge on whether it can control things easily from there. It's a concern that the horse has a history of being nutted on or close to the line. Perhaps the Valley will assist it in this regard. Other hopes to Finiguerra, Galileo Gold and Ship In The Night.
Race 8 - There's some speedy customers engaged here and no shortage of horses that like to lead. That could set it up for something running on provided there's no bias against that. I'm going to go with Rocking Force. I feel he can settle just behind the speed and capitalise on a fast pace. He has a good record at the track and distance. His last start win was full of merit. Other hopes to Definitely Ready, Canali and Master Harry.
Warwick Farm
Race 1 - A 2 year old fillies race where only 2 horses have raced before. No thanks.
Race 2 - I'll go with Mikiyama here. Has a class edge over these as shown by it's top weight. Has a great record over the distance and a fair 1st up record. Other hopes to Revolt, Dal Rommel and Hard Liquor.
Race 3 - This is a tricky race in regards to working out where they'll all settle down. A possible wet track also throws a spanner in the works. I'm going with Saint Etienne. The horse has placed in all 3 of it's starts with it's most recent result a 3rd in the Group 3 Carbine Club where it ran 0.3 of length of Galah. That should hold it in good stead here. Other hopes to Colorado Claire, Hendricus and Euryale.
Race 4 - Another tough race. I think Pretty Composed could run a race here. Is undefeated in it's 3 starts. Won last start on slow track here. Extra distance shouldn't be a problem based on the way it ran on. Other hopes to Urgent Bells, Next The Universe and Oakfield Comet.
Race 5 - This isn't a race I'm too keen to get involved in. In these types of races, the horses seem to take turns at winning. Having said that, I'm going with Altonio. It can handle all conditions and comes off a reasonable effort at Flemington. It might have a bit more improvement in it than it's rivals. Other hopes to Merenksy Reef, Old Bill and Pregrada.
Race 6 - Scarf was pretty good to us last preparation and I'll be with him here 1st up. His 1st up record isn't that great but he did win 1st up last prep. Besides Title, this is a pretty moderate bunch and I think Scarf will be too strong. Other hopes to Title, Altered Boy and Without Compromise.
Race 7 - I'm going to stick with Rosie's Reward. Can handle a soft track and gets in nicely with the claim for the Hyeronimus. Goes well for the jockey. From the gate, she should be able to lead or settle in just behind the leaders. Other hopes to Riebeek, Nuptse and So So Sure.
Race 8 - Rolling Pin will do me in the last. The horse drops in weight, has a good record at this track and distance and can handle all going. Should be able to make full use of the peg. Other hopes to Trauma, Chateau Fort and Riding To Win.
Doomben
Race 1 - Sitting out this 2 year old race.
Race 2 - I'll be honest, I've had a gutful of these 2000m type races in Brisbane. Thought Racing Heart was an absolute special last time it went around, only for it to finish 5th. I won't be getting too involved here as the price doesn't allow it but I'd put Rundle on top. It impressed me last start when I gave the handicapper a serve for weighting it out of the race. I was wrong. It really dug in with 58kg and drops to 55.5kg here. Will go well. Other hopes to Racing Heart, Eureka and Walpersdorf.
Warwick Farm
Race 1 - A 2 year old fillies race where only 2 horses have raced before. No thanks.
Race 2 - I'll go with Mikiyama here. Has a class edge over these as shown by it's top weight. Has a great record over the distance and a fair 1st up record. Other hopes to Revolt, Dal Rommel and Hard Liquor.
Race 3 - This is a tricky race in regards to working out where they'll all settle down. A possible wet track also throws a spanner in the works. I'm going with Saint Etienne. The horse has placed in all 3 of it's starts with it's most recent result a 3rd in the Group 3 Carbine Club where it ran 0.3 of length of Galah. That should hold it in good stead here. Other hopes to Colorado Claire, Hendricus and Euryale.
Race 4 - Another tough race. I think Pretty Composed could run a race here. Is undefeated in it's 3 starts. Won last start on slow track here. Extra distance shouldn't be a problem based on the way it ran on. Other hopes to Urgent Bells, Next The Universe and Oakfield Comet.
Race 5 - This isn't a race I'm too keen to get involved in. In these types of races, the horses seem to take turns at winning. Having said that, I'm going with Altonio. It can handle all conditions and comes off a reasonable effort at Flemington. It might have a bit more improvement in it than it's rivals. Other hopes to Merenksy Reef, Old Bill and Pregrada.
Race 6 - Scarf was pretty good to us last preparation and I'll be with him here 1st up. His 1st up record isn't that great but he did win 1st up last prep. Besides Title, this is a pretty moderate bunch and I think Scarf will be too strong. Other hopes to Title, Altered Boy and Without Compromise.
Race 7 - I'm going to stick with Rosie's Reward. Can handle a soft track and gets in nicely with the claim for the Hyeronimus. Goes well for the jockey. From the gate, she should be able to lead or settle in just behind the leaders. Other hopes to Riebeek, Nuptse and So So Sure.
Race 8 - Rolling Pin will do me in the last. The horse drops in weight, has a good record at this track and distance and can handle all going. Should be able to make full use of the peg. Other hopes to Trauma, Chateau Fort and Riding To Win.
Doomben
Race 1 - Sitting out this 2 year old race.
Race 2 - I'll be honest, I've had a gutful of these 2000m type races in Brisbane. Thought Racing Heart was an absolute special last time it went around, only for it to finish 5th. I won't be getting too involved here as the price doesn't allow it but I'd put Rundle on top. It impressed me last start when I gave the handicapper a serve for weighting it out of the race. I was wrong. It really dug in with 58kg and drops to 55.5kg here. Will go well. Other hopes to Racing Heart, Eureka and Walpersdorf.
***Eureka and Walpersdorf have been scratched. No replacements as I was only being polite including them in the first place. No hope really.***
Race 3 - I'll be with Mossriver in this. Has a great overall record and has started this campaign with 2 wins. Should be looking for the 1350m now. Other hopes to Hidden Kisses, Zigzag and Marsh Harbour.
Race 4 - Would loved to have seen Dux Bellorum draw a better gate here because I think if it had, it would have really given Cape Kidnappers a go. It still may however we backed Cape Kidnappers on Cup day and boy did he deliver. It's won it's 2 starts by 7.8 and 6 lengths. Clearly it has potential. Perhaps the best bet here is to take them in a quinella given the short price for CK.
Race 5 - Going with Alltherightmoves here. It's only had the 5 starts but has won 4 of them. Each time handling the step up in grade nicely. Importantly all 4 wins have been over this distance. Other hopes to Catashee, Liesele and Norocos.
Race 6 - Saraji grabbed the cash for us last start and I'll be sticking with her here. I think she'll be able to get a similar run as last start and dictate terms in front. Will be hard to catch. Other hopes to Amber's Crown, Seiyo and High On Believing.
Race 7 - I suspect Fillydelphia will be too strong again. Her 3 runs back have been full of merit and I can't see a reason to jump off the bandwagon now. Other hopes to Wonderful Lass, Rockdale and Writer.
Race 8 - I'm getting a vibe for Theft in the last. The horse is racing in tremendous touch at the moment, winning all 4 starts this campaign. I feel that he'll be able to either lead or sit in the 1st few and boot clear in the straight. Should get a glorious ride from the 4 alley. Other hopes to Carry Me Bluey, Danagaze and Dusty Gold.
Ascot
Race 1 - Keepers Court from Classic Emblem
Race 2 - Morning Mist from Thunderluv'n
Race 3 - Maschino from Forever Special
Race 4 - Our Ol' Fella from Grey Monarch
Race 5 - God Has Spoken from Western Jewel
Race 6 - Bontiara from Answers Are
Race 7 - Ron's Call from Red Hot Sax
Race 8 - He's Remarkable from Ranger
Race 9 - Ortensia from Rarefied
Race 10 - Latoria from The Entourage
Best Bets
Moonee Valley - Race 5 Number 2 Cat's Pyjamas
Race 6 Number 6 Eraset
Warwick Farm - Race 2 Number 1 Mikiyama
Race 6 Number 5 Scarf
Race 8 Number 13 Rolling Pin
Doomben - Race 2 Number 2 Rundle
Race 6 Number 2 Saraji
Race 7 Number 3 Fillydelphia
Ascot - Race 9 Number 11 Ortensia
Race 10 Number 8 Latoria
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