16/02/13 - Doomben, Rosehill and Flemington

Doomben (Dead 4)

I'm a little bit concerned about the track rating after overnight rain.  This morning it was rated a slow 6 and there's a chance of showers. Hopefully they stay away and we get back to a dead track.  Keep the track rating in mind especially with the likes of Noisy Ocean who doesn't like it.

Race 1 - Two weeks ago Flamboyer grabbed the cash for the Silk.  In that race, Aquator was noted as the hardest to beat and a nice exacta dividend was received.  I think Aquator (4) can go one better here and take out the opening event.  He drops 1.5kg for running a close 2nd and with the claim for Anthony Allen will carry just 53.5kg.  I think that's a considerable weight advantage to turn the tables on Flamboyer.  Last start he was really hitting the line hard so the extra distance here at 1350m will suit.  As noted last time, Aquator has good form around Magic Millions winner Real Surreal.  Other hopes to Flamboyer (1), Teronado (2) and Pound On Tubby (3).

Race 2 - Gundy Son (1) broke through for a long overdue win last start and I can see him repeating the dose here.  He hit the line hard in that win which was at this course and distance.  With the claim for Anthony Allen, he'll carry just 0.5kg more than last week.  That's not enough to stop him.  His record at this track and distance is a good one and from this gate, he'll be able to possie up nicely in the small field.  Hardest to beat in the small field is Prost (3).

Race 3 - A field of 14 speedsters will contest this 1010m scamper and as would be expected, the speed will be on.  If Lennie's Choice (17) is a promising looking horse and goes on top for me.  He has had the 2 career starts and has a 2nd and last start win to his credit.  His win was an eye catching display where he bolted in and ran quick time in heavy going.  Will be able to push forward with a light weight compared to the rest.  Unfortunately he is also the 3rd emergency so unless there's some scratchings, he won't get a run.  If does get a start, I'll be on.  If he doesn't get a run then it's a very even affair.  In that instance I'd put Lady Montel (5) on top who has a good record at the track and distance and trialed well behind Lucky Sound.  Other hopes to Tragedy (12) and Jantzen (4).

***With the scratching of Lady Montel, I'll promote Headless (13) to the other hopes***

Race 4 - I can't go past Boys On Tour (2) following his track record breaking demolition job last start.  He had finished off races well previous to last start but 2 weeks ago was something else.  He simply brained them.  Understandably he's come up a short quote (currently $1.50) so we may not be able to get on.  Having said that, I can't see any of these beating him.  Multiple hopes to Lucky Luna (1), What Happenedhenry (6) and Bang On (10).

Race 5 - Peron (5) is a promising 3 year old who has won all 3 of her starts.  She seems to get better each time she races and I feel she'll take her record to 4 from 4 here.  In all 3 starts she has hit the line hard so the step up to 1600m should be to her liking.  She's drawn a good gate and has the services of the in form Michael Cahill.  There's a lot to like here.  Other hopes to Itchintowin (13), Plumage (10) and Fantisha (8).

Race 6 - Noisy Ocean (5) finished 3rd last time out over this distance 2 weeks ago.  He drops 1.5kg from that run and will carry 55.5kg after the claim for Tegan Harrison.  He has drawn nicely in barrier 5 and I expect Tegan to get the horse to take a sit just behind Sir Stanley (scratched) who should lead.  He has won and placed 3rd in his 2 starts at this track/distance.  He put in some nice work during the week and I feel he's ready to win.  Other hopes to Dolly Dolly (11), Volkhere (13) and Shezahotshot (6).

***If the track is rated slow when this race starts, I will not be backing Noisy Ocean. It just doesn't handle it wet***

Race 7 - Viking Heart (8) is a model of consistency this campaign.  He has only been out of the placings once in those 5 starts.  Last start he lost by the barest of margins after having a ding dong battle the length of the straight.  He always puts in and is always finishing off strongly.  From the gun draw here, I can't see anything different.  His record at this track and distance is 3 wins from 5 starts.  Other hopes to Show Affection (13), Kilwinning Option (1) and Black Magic (15).

Race 8 - Lucky Sound (6) raced impressively last campaign where he won 3 from 4.  He has a great record at the distance winning 3 and running 2nd twice from 5 starts. He won his only start at this track and distance.  He resumes here but really put in a nice trial recently and I would think he's raring to go.  Draw nicely for Larry Cassidy who will position the horse nicely on the speed.  Other hopes to Bribie (4), Commandare (8) and Arado (9).           

Suggested Allup: Gundy Son/Boys On Tour/Peron


Rosehill

Race 1 - Frozen Rope (7)

Race 2 - Red Tracer (2)

Race 3 - Whittington (1)

Race 4 - Brilliant Bisc (1)

Race 5 - Sacred Falls (1)

Race 6 - Bennetta (6)

Race 7 - Soledad (6)

Race 8 - Under The Sun (3)


Flemington

Race 1 - Great Esteem (3) 

Race 2 -New York (6) 

Race 3 - Ominous Quality (10)

Race 4 - Keep Cool (2)

Race 5 - You're So Good (8)

Race 6 - Hosting (7)

Race 7 - Black Caviar (6) x 3 lengths

Race 8 - Decircles (9)

Race 9 - Min River (10)