01/06/13 - Queensland Oaks Day

It's with great trepidation that I approach the form for Queensland Oaks Day.  Not because I'm scared (The Silk ain't ever scared!) or indecisive about what horses will be competitive but because of the weather.  We've had rain throughout the week and it looks like continuing Friday.  There is a chance that it will clear Saturday.  This generally spells disaster for the Eagle Farm track and the signs aren't good with the track already rated a Slow 7 as at Thursday afternoon.  Fingers crossed that the tap gets turned off and we get some racing.  I'll be doing my form based on a slow/heavy track.

***Track update Saturday morning:  Slow 7.....rain please stay away!***

Race 1 -  The opening race sees the 2 year olds race over 1400m.  I'll be going with Choisenegger (5).  Last start he had an easy time of it on the Sunshine Coast when he won by 3 lengths over 1400m on heavy ground.  Although that field was inferior to what he meets in this race, it shows he can run the distance and get through wet ground.  I think it also shows that he's finally switched on to the racing game.  This horse did run a very close 2nd to Magic Millions winner Real Surreal on debut.  He'll get a great run from the inside gate.  Other hopes to All Things In Time (7), L'Entrecote (6) and Gypsy Diamond (9).

Race 2 - Markout (11) looks right up to his eyeballs in this race.  He loves this distance with 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 starts.  He's quite handy at the track with a 33% win rate here.  The wet track won't stop him as he's only been out of the placings once in 5 tries on slow or heavy going.  He has been hitting the line hard in his recent races and we can expect a similar showing in this race.  He won't know himself with only 53kg to carry here after carting 59kg last start.  Other hopes to Secret Garden (8), Raeburn (1) and Trajet (7).

Race 3 - Tricky Group 2 race here over 2200m with only 6 horses engaged.  I'll go with Lights Of Heaven (5).  She won her only start at the distance and has won both her starts at the track.  She can also get through the wet, never finishing worse than 2nd in 3 starts on rain affected tracks.  With the pace being the key here, she should be able to sit in the box seat and get a great run.  

Race 4 - Fire Up Fifi (4) looks extremely well placed here.  She steps up to 1500m which looks like she's crying out for.  In the 3 runs since resuming, she's hit the line with gusto.  Last start was a real "back me next time" run where she was held up for a run before getting clear late to go down narrowly.  The wet track won't worry her with 4 quinella finishes from 6 starts on slow or heavy.  She draws barrier 1 and jockey Damian Browne will be able to slot her in beautifully to get a peach of a run.  Other hopes to Longshoreman (10), Listen Son (2) and Hour Of Peril (8).

Race 5 - Detours (4) enters this race on the back of a strong finishing win in the Silk Stocking 4 weeks ago.  She draws beautifully here to get a gun run for the very much in form jockey Kerrin McEvoy.  Her record over the 1200m is excellent, winning 5 of 8 starts.  She handles a wet track as shown by her record of never being out of the placings in 3 attempts.  Other hopes to Classics (9), Dystopia (3) and Bound To Blush (6).

Race 6 - A return to Eagle Farm will see a return to the winner's circle for Sizzling (1).  This lad loves Eagle Farm winning 4 from 5.  He ran 2nd in the other.  The longer straight here really suits his strong finish.  He has raced on heavy tracks twice and won them both well.  The last of those was when he gave it to a few of these in last year's Sires Produce over this distance.  Kelso Wood puts the blinkers on here and I think that will switch him on nicely.  Other hopes to Platinum Kingdom (6), Academus (3) and Boban (11).

Race 7 - Gondokoro (4) was enormous last start in the Group 3 Roses.  After copping a check she was well back in the run.  She then sprouted wings and hit the line at an incredible rate to narrowly go down.  The bigger straight here will suit her and I expect her to be hard to hold out.  The extra distance here will also suit her given what we saw last time out.  Her wet track record suggests she can get through the ground.  Other hopes to Dear Demi (1), Vaquera (8) and Soapy Star (3).        

Race 8 - What a doozy we have to finish!  If my motto wasn't "involvement is the key" I'd give this race a miss.  As they say, "Go wide in your quadrellas punters".  So in the spirit of getting involved, I'll be supporting Startsmeup (5).  It has a tremendous record around this distance and races well at the track.  It's wet track form statistically doesn't look fantastic but on closer inspection, the majority of those races it drew outwards of barrier 11.  It's by no means a mug when it rains.  It enters this race on the back of an unlucky yet fast finishing 2.1 length 7th.  Will be finishing off strongly.  Other hopes to Galah (16), Decision Time (2) and Miss Stellabelle (11).

***With the scratching of Decision Time (No Robes Get Out Special), I'll promote Griffon (12) to the other hopes***


Best Bets

Race 2 - Markout (11)

Race 4 - Fire Up Fifi (4)

Race 5 - Detours (4)
    

25/05/13 - Doomben 10,000

Doomben

Race 1 - As of mid-Friday afternoon, the track was rated a Dead 5.  However drizzle/light rain continues to fall.  Although Saturday is expected to be a clear day, I would be prepared for a dead/slow track.

***Saturday morning update: Blessed with a clear sky and a track rating of Dead 4***

What did we do to deserve this for an opening to the card?  A big field of maiden horses go around here.  If you can find the winner here, you will be set up for the rest of the day.  I'm putting the Barry Baldwin trained Valerie D'Amour (15) on top.  She drops back slightly in distance after a freshen up and I think that could be to her advantage.  She draws beautifully in barrier 2.  She has placed and run well on both dead and heavy tracks so any rain about won't harm her chances.  Last start she put in her best display thus far when she had a tough run after being 4 wide approaching the turn.  She briefly hit the lead but was unable to hold on over 1500m.  I think that puts her right in this.  Other hopes to Gold Flow (7), Hollywood Bound (8) and Vive Le Vent (4).  

Race 2 - General Exhibit (3) put in an impressive 1st up run when he finished 2.4 lengths off Academus in the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas.  He's draw barrier 11 but I don't see a problem with him getting across to box seat or sit outside the leader.  This guy is unbeaten at the track and distance in 2 attempts.  He has won his only race on dead and ran 2nd in his only try on heavy so worsening track conditions won't be a problem if that eventuates.  Jockey Tegan Harrison claims 1.5kg which gives him an advantage.  Other hopes to Tukiyo (8), Reflectance (6) and Love For Ransom (10).

Race 3 - It was tough splitting Peron and Someday here but Someday drawing the carpark swung me to Peron.  Peron (13) has put together quite a record in her short career.  She's won 4 from 5 now and looks to be improving.  She resumed last start and flew home to beat Whitesails.  She handles all going and won her only start at this track and distance.  With a great run from the nice gate, she'll be tough to hold out in the straight.  Other hopes to Someday (7), Skating Away (15) and Longshoreman (4).

Race 4 - Arinosa (4) comes to Queensland on the back of some exceptional form down south.  She is unbeaten in her past 4 starts and quite frankly has destroyed the opposition in those races.  It would be fair to say that with the good barrier she'll be hard to beat.  I would have reservations at the price if we cop a downpour and the track gets in the heavy range.  If playing exotics I'd be looking at Risk Aversion (8), Petty Cury (17), Diademe (19) and Quidnunc (7).

Race 5 - With a much better gate here, I expect a big improvement from Bound For Earth (14).  This filly was very good on debut when she sat outside the leader then blew them apart in the straight.  Last start she drew poorly and was ridden back but still finished off nicely.  Back to an inside gate, I can see jockey Glyn Schofield positioning the horse much closer to the action.  The way she finished off last start suggests the extra distance here will be to her liking.  Other hopes to Zoustar (5), Missy Longstocking (12) and Vilanova (4).

Race 6 - Griffon (7) will be in the prime position to take advantage of the breakneck speed up front.  I can see at least a handful of these pushing forward wanting the front.  Griffon will be biding his time, ready to have a crack at them in the straight.  He has a great record over this distance winning 3 from 5.  He prefers the sting out of the ground so any moisture will help his cause.  He resumed last start and after a tonne of bad luck only went down by 1.4 lengths.  He'll be primed 2nd up and his 2nd up record supports this.  Other hopes to Karuta Queen (5), Gundy Son (4) and Pentasia (11).

Race 7 - This is a tough race with many with fighting chances.  I'm going with a gelding that is just starting out but looks to be promising in Rhythm To Spare (8).  He's only had the 4 starts but has been in the quinella each time.  Last start he won over 1600m at Sandown and did it with a bit in hand.  He steps up in distance here but his breeding suggests that won't be a problem.  It also suggests that any rain about will not harm his chances.  Has the services of the Bossman Glen Boss who should be able to place the horse beautifully from barrier 6.  Other hopes to Dear Demi (14), Usainity (4) and Hawkspur (2).

Race 8 - The Doomben 10,000 is going to be an excellent race with a quality field engaged.  I'm going with Epaulette (10).  This 3 year old colt has been racing competitively against Black Caviar, All Too Hard and Pierro.  That's strong form!  He's drawn nicely in barrier 4 and McEvoy will be able to give him one of the runs of the race.  Unlike some of his rivals, he's proven to be strong over this distance.  Other hopes to Your Song (8), Manawanui (3) and Better Than Ready (15).

Race 9 - I've taken a liking to Midsummer Sun (12) since it's arrival in Australia.  Has won both starts and looked to do it with something left in the tank.  Steps up to Group 3 here but it's a fairly poor excuse for a Group 3 race.  I would suggest that it's raced in considerably harder Group races back in the UK.  Has the services of Glen Boss who will give it the run of the race from barrier 6.  Drops 3.5kg on it's last start win.  Will be terribly hard to beat.  Other hopes to Less Is More (15), Savannah Rush (9) and Studio (14).    

Best Bets

Race 6 Number 7 Griffon
Race 9 Number 12 Midsummer Sun

18/05/13 - Doomben Cup Day

I had plans of doing a preview for Doomben but unfortunately I had a few things come up that prevented that.  So hopefully here's some to the point winners!

Doomben

Race 1 - Not So Sober (6)

Race 2 - Missy Longstocking (1)

Race 3 - Pure Purrfection (6)

Race 4 - Solzhenitsyn (2)

Race 5 - Express Power (4)

Race 6 - Academus (4)

Race 7 - Foreteller (4)

Race 8 - Fire Up Fifi (16)

Scone 

Race 1 - Mulaqen (1)

Race 2 - Lady La Douce (9)

Race 3 - Mineko (2)

Race 4 - She's A Stalker (5)

Race 5 - Riva De Lago (3)

Race 6 - Miss Stellabelle (1)

Race 7 - Missy Cummings (14)

Race 8 - Sharnee Rose (11)

Flemington

Race 2 - Right To Roam (2)

Race 3 - Vain Queen (4)

Race 4 - Lidari (1)

Race 6 - Unchain My Heart (6)

Race 7 - That's The One (5)

Race 8 - Tigerland (7)

              

  

      

11/05/13 - BTC Cup Day

Last Saturday's Prime Minister's Cup meeting at the Gold Coast was a successful day for Silk supporters.  Four winners were found on the nine race card for an 82% profit.  These being Studio $1.70, Express Power $4.10, Famous Seamus $7.30 and Lights Of Heaven $3.30.  The quadrella was also found with the Silk's top or 2nd pick winning each leg.  Unfortunately not much joy was found interstate. 
 

Enough about the past.  We've got the BTC Cup to look forward to this Saturday at Eagle Farm.  Will Buffering taste Group 1 glory?  I'm sure a big percentage of racing fans will be hoping the answer is in the affirmative.  The track should be rated in the dead range with only a chance of showers over the coming days.  Hopefully they stay away and we get a great surface.
 

Race 1 - The opening event on the card sees a scamper over 1000m.  As would be expected, the speed should be a solid one.  Particularly with a number of horses pushing over from wide gates.  With that in mind, I have gone with Griffon (4) who will be able to sit off the speed and come home strong.  He resumes here and does his best work on the fresh side as shown by his record of 2 wins and 2 thirds from 5 resumptions.  He enjoys racing at this track and won his only start here over 1000m.  Other hopes to Excellantes (1), Halle Rocks (11) and Mr Favulous (7).
 

Race 2 - This is a very competitive race for 2 year olds.  I'm going with Global Dream (7).  This Tony Gollan trained filly has shown signs that she's a decent horse.  She resumes here after an initial campaign that concluded in a 4th place finish in the Magic Millions.  I think that particular run showed what character this horse has.  After drawing barrier 11, she raced 3 wide before being 5 wide on the turn.  She then had the audacity to run on to go down by just 1.9 lengths.  She draws the inside gate here and I can see jockey Glen Colless positioning the horse nicely a few pairs back from the lead.  In a race of many chances, I think Global Dream offers good value at double figure odds.  Other hopes to Octane Flyer (1), Hooked (3) and Bound For Earth (9).


Race 3 - I'm quite keen on the chances of Hidden Kisses (2) in this 1400m race.  This horse races particularly well at Eagle Farm, winning or placing in 9 of 12 starts.  More importantly she's won 2 from 3 at this track and distance.  She was very good 1st up when finishing off strongly over 1200m to go down by a slim margin.  The step up to 1400m here 2nd up will be too her liking.  She gets the services of gun jockey Michael Rodd who will guide the horse beautifully from barrier 1.  Other hopes to Alcania (9), Show Affection (8) and Product (4).

Race 4 - Waterford (12) has raced in multiple Group races in New Zealand and finds herself in a Benchmark 85 here.  The only obstacle I can see to her winning this race is the visitor's barrier of 15.  Her form in NZ reads well for a race like this.  She finished 4 lengths off this year's Doncaster winner Sacred Falls and lost by a nose in the Group 1 1000 Guineas over this distance.  Other hopes to Dusty Gold (6), Less Is More (4) and Vacallo (10).

Race 5 - The Rough Habit Plate over 2100m looks at the mercy of the kiwis.  There's a couple of good ones engaged here in Usainity and Survived.  I'm putting Survived (7) just on top given his great record.  Survived has won 5 from 7 and has won up to 2200m.  Last start he put a Group 3 field to the sword over 2200m on slow going so he enters this race in sparkling form.  Two starts back he defeated Usainity when he drew much worse.  Platinum Kingdom was also in that race and we know that horse like Usainity has recently won in Sydney.  Other hopes to Usainity (3), Lucky Lucky Lucky (9) and Tonopah (13).

Race 6 - You think the kiwis want to win this race?  There's a strong contingent here with good form.  However I'll be supporting the Tony McEvoy trained Sysmo (14).  This former French horse is always around the money and has been racing in good form recently.  He won 2 starts back before finding the heavy going not to his liking over 2000m last time out.  Despite the wet track, he still finished off strongly.  With 54kg, I believe this guy will be hard to hold out.  He has drawn to get a great run.  Other hopes to Margins (8), Shenzhou Steeds (2) and Quintessential (3).

Race 7 - The 2013 edition of the BTC Cup is going to be an outstanding affair with some quality sprinters going around.  It's no secret that I love the Buff and it would seem sacrilege to go against the big fella.  Buffering (1) won't have it all his own way however.  Rain Affair will push forward to lead and try to run Buff off his feet.  I think Buff will be best suited if he sits off Rain Affair and has a crack in the straight.  Buffering has a fondness for Eagle Farm winning 4 from 7.  Even more telling is his record of 3 wins from 4 starts at the track and distance.  He seems to have come back in excellent form as shown in the fighting win last start.  Other hopes to Rain Affair (2), Rarefied (5) and Your Song (8).

Race 8 - Someday (6) has only been out of the quinella once in 9 starts.  On that occasion he was steaming home before getting poleaxed.  This guy resumes in this race and has a great 1st up record.  His start prior to the break was something to be seen.  He missed the start thanks to gate failure and was 2 lengths last from the get go.  He raced 3 wide and was 5 wide turning for home before finishing off like a freight train.  This guy has class and if they have plans for bigger races in the winter, then he has to be winning this.  Other hopes to Sookie (16), Rocker (4) and Longshoreman (2).

Best Bets

Race 3 Number 2 Hidden Kisses

Race 5 Number 7 Survived


Caulfield

Race 2 - Imoto (8)

Race 3 - Cosmic Causeway (2)

Race 4 - Falcent (7)

Race 6 - Nautical (13)

Race 7 - Midsummer Sun (4)

Race 8 - Elite Elle (4)


Rosehill

Race 2 - Relaxed And Happy (3)

Race 5 - Index Linked (10)

Race 6 - Pirate Bay (13)

Race 7 - Under The Sun (7)

Race 8 - Infinite Energy (9)

04/05/13 - Gold Coast Hollindale Stakes Day

Gold Coast

The Brisbane Winter Carnival kicked off last weekend and we saw the bulldog Buffering return to racing in style.  This Saturday we make our way down to the Gold Coast for an excellent day's racing which includes the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes, the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas and numerous listed races.  The track is currently rated a dead 4 but with magic weather to continue, the track will race in the good range come Saturday. 

Race 1 - A small field of 6 go around over 2200m.  Chris Waller sends Studio (4) up from Sydney and it would be very unlikely that this horse is here for a haircut.  Last start it was belted by 40 lengths on heavy going but the jockey reported that it did not handle the heavy conditions.  I'll ignore that as prior to that start, it's form was excellent for a race like this.  It has form around the likes of Coup Acclaim, Hoylonny  and Messene.  It hasn't won beyond 2000m but when it won over 1900m 2 starts back, it found plenty.  It's won or placed 7 times from 10 starts.  Hardest to beat is Mukaddamah Son (2).

Race 2 - Speed looks to be solid here with a number of horses that like to push forward engaged in this Benchmark 85 1200m race.  Whitesails (10) was in cracking form before taking a 70 day break.  Her wins were over the longer trips of 1500 and 1600m but I think she'll be aided by a decent speed.  She has drawn barrier 2 and I think Bennett can position her nicely behind the speed from there.  Her 1st up record is a good one with 1-1-1 record from 4 1st up attempts.  She warmed up for this by winning a trial by 9.5 lengths (3rd was 14 lengths further back) over 1000m.  She'll be hard to hold out in the straight.  Other hopes to Balkuin (3), Peron (13) and Assimilator (7).

Race 3 - Missy Longstocking (11) was one of the stars of the young brigade in Brisbane earlier in the season.  She resumes here with a record of 4 wins and a 3rd from 5 starts.  The non-winning run was in the Magic Millions.  She's drawn the extreme outside here in 17 which is a concern.  However I believe she has the class and the jockey to overcome that.  She's a very strong finisher and with any luck in running will be hard to hold out.  This was demonstrated in the MM when she was 5 wide and still kept coming.  It's safe to say that this field isn't of the same strength as that one!  Other hopes to Diamond Oasis (1), Sir Moments (4) and Florid Affair (15).

Race 4 - Tail And All (5) is a horse never far from the action.  In it's past 10 starts, it's finished in the top 2 9 times.  He has form around some good horses including Time To Plunder, Lucky Sound and Epic.  Last start he ran 2nd to Epic by a length over this distance and that horse has since won again.  He has been in the placings 4 times from 6 goes at the distance.  Although he's drawn out in barrier 14, jockey Ryan Wiggins should be able to get the horse into a decent midfield position with the long run to the 1st turn.  Will be finishing the race with purpose.  Other hopes to Pellegrini (4), Alcania (11) and Purfectress (9).

Race 5 - Kris Lees has a good record of bringing horses up to QLD and I give one of his a tremendous chance here.  Express Power (3) has drawn poorly here in 17 but I think she's a filly with some ability.  Last start she ran 2nd to Royal Descent by 2.5 lengths over 2000m in the Group 3 Adrian Knox.  In that race she was running on strongly at the end.  We all saw how that form was franked in Royal Descent's next start in the Oaks when she totally obliterated the field.  Express Power came from barrier 12 that day so she has the ability to overcome the wide gate.  She has a good overall record and has only been out of the placings once in 8 starts.  Other hopes to Catalonia (6), Vaquera (7) and Hold Me Tight (4).

Race 6 - Bound To Blush (13) resumes here for the John O'Shea stable.  She sports the perfect 1st up record, winning all 3 resumptions.  This mare has only been out of the placings once in 9 starts.  Prior to her break, Bound To Blush ran a nose over 1200m to the flyer Adebisi.  That's tremendous form for this.  She's drawn an inside gate and will be able fire out and take up the lead or a handy position.  Other hopes to Detours (4), Petty Cury (7) and Karuta Queen (2).

Race 7 - This year's edition of the Prime Minister's Cup looks a very competitive affair.      Famous Seamus (4) came up from Sydney 2 weeks ago and overpowered the locals over 1200m.  I think he can go back to back here.  He draws nicely in barrier 3 and Colless will be able to position him well just behind the speed.  Prior to the freshen up, he was very competitive in Group 2 and 3 company in Sydney.  That should make him more than competitive here.  Other hopes to Steel Zip (7), Phelan Ready (5) and Utah Saints (10).

Race 8 - The Group 2 Hollindale Stakes looks at the mercy of Lights Of Heaven (13).  Quite frankly at wfa conditions, the majority of this field looks out of their depth.  She warmed up for this with a cracking win over 2000m.  She ran 2nd in this race last year and I'm struggling to see a reason why she won't go one better this time around.  Other hopes to Foreteller (3), Lamasery (6) and Solzhenitsyn (5).

Race 9 - The Gold Coast Guineas is a fitting way to close the program.  A number of talented 3 year olds are engaged which will ensure an excellent race.  I'm a fan of Sizzling (1) and will be supporting him.  This guy has a great record winning 6 and running 2nd in 4 from 13 starts.  He resumes in this race and has won 2 from 3 1st up.  In his last start before a spell, he drew the carpark and only narrowly lost to Saluter here.  I can see him finding a much better position from this gate and showing off his powerful finish.  Tough to hold out!  Other hopes to Academus (4), Saluter (2) and Luke's Luck (3).    


Flemington

Race 1 - No Thanks

Race 2 - Secessio (6)

Race 3 - Good Value (5)

Race 4 - Whisper Downs (5)

Race 5 - Unchain My Heart (4)

Race 6 - Hazard (3)

Race 7 - Mareeza (2)

Race 8 - Prince Of Penzance (4)


Hawkesbury

Race 1 - Lyric (10)

Race 2 - Zoustar (3)

Race 3 - Westchester (11)

Race 4 - Above All (7)

Race 5 - Dystopia (2)

Race 6 - Keith's Legacy (7)

Race 7 - Platinum Kingdom (2)

Race 8 - Deceiver (14)