25/05/13 - Doomben 10,000

Doomben

Race 1 - As of mid-Friday afternoon, the track was rated a Dead 5.  However drizzle/light rain continues to fall.  Although Saturday is expected to be a clear day, I would be prepared for a dead/slow track.

***Saturday morning update: Blessed with a clear sky and a track rating of Dead 4***

What did we do to deserve this for an opening to the card?  A big field of maiden horses go around here.  If you can find the winner here, you will be set up for the rest of the day.  I'm putting the Barry Baldwin trained Valerie D'Amour (15) on top.  She drops back slightly in distance after a freshen up and I think that could be to her advantage.  She draws beautifully in barrier 2.  She has placed and run well on both dead and heavy tracks so any rain about won't harm her chances.  Last start she put in her best display thus far when she had a tough run after being 4 wide approaching the turn.  She briefly hit the lead but was unable to hold on over 1500m.  I think that puts her right in this.  Other hopes to Gold Flow (7), Hollywood Bound (8) and Vive Le Vent (4).  

Race 2 - General Exhibit (3) put in an impressive 1st up run when he finished 2.4 lengths off Academus in the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas.  He's draw barrier 11 but I don't see a problem with him getting across to box seat or sit outside the leader.  This guy is unbeaten at the track and distance in 2 attempts.  He has won his only race on dead and ran 2nd in his only try on heavy so worsening track conditions won't be a problem if that eventuates.  Jockey Tegan Harrison claims 1.5kg which gives him an advantage.  Other hopes to Tukiyo (8), Reflectance (6) and Love For Ransom (10).

Race 3 - It was tough splitting Peron and Someday here but Someday drawing the carpark swung me to Peron.  Peron (13) has put together quite a record in her short career.  She's won 4 from 5 now and looks to be improving.  She resumed last start and flew home to beat Whitesails.  She handles all going and won her only start at this track and distance.  With a great run from the nice gate, she'll be tough to hold out in the straight.  Other hopes to Someday (7), Skating Away (15) and Longshoreman (4).

Race 4 - Arinosa (4) comes to Queensland on the back of some exceptional form down south.  She is unbeaten in her past 4 starts and quite frankly has destroyed the opposition in those races.  It would be fair to say that with the good barrier she'll be hard to beat.  I would have reservations at the price if we cop a downpour and the track gets in the heavy range.  If playing exotics I'd be looking at Risk Aversion (8), Petty Cury (17), Diademe (19) and Quidnunc (7).

Race 5 - With a much better gate here, I expect a big improvement from Bound For Earth (14).  This filly was very good on debut when she sat outside the leader then blew them apart in the straight.  Last start she drew poorly and was ridden back but still finished off nicely.  Back to an inside gate, I can see jockey Glyn Schofield positioning the horse much closer to the action.  The way she finished off last start suggests the extra distance here will be to her liking.  Other hopes to Zoustar (5), Missy Longstocking (12) and Vilanova (4).

Race 6 - Griffon (7) will be in the prime position to take advantage of the breakneck speed up front.  I can see at least a handful of these pushing forward wanting the front.  Griffon will be biding his time, ready to have a crack at them in the straight.  He has a great record over this distance winning 3 from 5.  He prefers the sting out of the ground so any moisture will help his cause.  He resumed last start and after a tonne of bad luck only went down by 1.4 lengths.  He'll be primed 2nd up and his 2nd up record supports this.  Other hopes to Karuta Queen (5), Gundy Son (4) and Pentasia (11).

Race 7 - This is a tough race with many with fighting chances.  I'm going with a gelding that is just starting out but looks to be promising in Rhythm To Spare (8).  He's only had the 4 starts but has been in the quinella each time.  Last start he won over 1600m at Sandown and did it with a bit in hand.  He steps up in distance here but his breeding suggests that won't be a problem.  It also suggests that any rain about will not harm his chances.  Has the services of the Bossman Glen Boss who should be able to place the horse beautifully from barrier 6.  Other hopes to Dear Demi (14), Usainity (4) and Hawkspur (2).

Race 8 - The Doomben 10,000 is going to be an excellent race with a quality field engaged.  I'm going with Epaulette (10).  This 3 year old colt has been racing competitively against Black Caviar, All Too Hard and Pierro.  That's strong form!  He's drawn nicely in barrier 4 and McEvoy will be able to give him one of the runs of the race.  Unlike some of his rivals, he's proven to be strong over this distance.  Other hopes to Your Song (8), Manawanui (3) and Better Than Ready (15).

Race 9 - I've taken a liking to Midsummer Sun (12) since it's arrival in Australia.  Has won both starts and looked to do it with something left in the tank.  Steps up to Group 3 here but it's a fairly poor excuse for a Group 3 race.  I would suggest that it's raced in considerably harder Group races back in the UK.  Has the services of Glen Boss who will give it the run of the race from barrier 6.  Drops 3.5kg on it's last start win.  Will be terribly hard to beat.  Other hopes to Less Is More (15), Savannah Rush (9) and Studio (14).    

Best Bets

Race 6 Number 7 Griffon
Race 9 Number 12 Midsummer Sun