Well it's that time of year again when Ipswich comes out in force for the running of the Ipswich Cup. Like most of the town, I've been going since I was 18 and this looks like one of the tougher cards we've had to deal with. Still involvement is the key and there's no doubting that I'll be attacking the bookies and the bar in equal measures.
The track is currently rated a Heavy 10. It has been drizzling/raining most of the week but it is supposed to start clearing Thursday and be fine through the weekend. I'll have my fingers crossed that the track will dry out somewhat but I'll be working on the track rating being slow. If by some miracle it got to dead then I'd be over the moon.
***Track rated a heavy 8 Saturday morning but an upgrade to slow would be on the cards at some point during the day***
***Track rated a heavy 8 Saturday morning but an upgrade to slow would be on the cards at some point during the day***
Race 1 XXXX Gold Grange Plate 1100m
It's a tough way to start things off with this 1100m race for 2 year olds. Speed should be solid with a number of horses looking to come across from the outside barriers. I'm going with the Hawkes trained Dalton (2). This colt only has the 1 win from 6 starts but it could be argued that he has raced against much stronger opposition than he faces here. The jockey the day he won was Michael Cahill who incidently gets back in the saddle in this race. He has drawn the inside gate but with speed on his outside, I can see him taking a midfield position. From there he will be able to capitalise on the tiring leaders in the straight. The only hint of him being able to handle a wet track was in a trial win on Tuesday. As previously mentioned, this is a tough race and I think that his Melbourne form and the 3.3 length 2nd to Magic Millions winner Real Surreal will hold him in good stead here. Other hopes to Aquator (5), Agitate (1) and Real Favulous (8).
Race 2 Optus Ipswich Mile BM 85 1666m
Although What Happenedhenry (2) has not won beyond 1200m, I believe his best racing is done around this distance range. Last start he ran 3rd to Planetarium by 1.5 lengths over 1800m. He ran on well in the straight in what was a harder grade than this. He has won 2 from 3 at the track which shows he can handle the tight Ipswich circuit. His wet form is very good with 9 wins or placings from 13 starts on slow or heavy tracks. The 1666m start is a tricky one here so barriers are crucial. He's drawn 7 but that shouldn't be a problem and I can see him taking up a position just off the speed, 4 or so horses back. With the right run, he'll be finishing off better than most of these. Other hopes to Purfectress (8), Flying Home (9) and Requirement (11).
Race 3 Ray White Dash Class 6 1100m
Cape Kidnappers (6) resumes here after having 14 months off the scene. That is a slight query but based on his efforts prior to the spell, he'll be very hard to beat. This guy won 4 from 5 races and ran second in the other. Being by Commands, he can handle a wet track and this was never more evident than when he won on debut by 7.8 lengths. He's drawn barrier 9 but he should have the early speed to cross and take up the lead or a handy position. Making him an even tougher proposition is the fact that he finishes off his races strongly. He had an exhibition gallop last Friday at the track and I would doubt that trainer Kelly Schweida wouldn't have him ready to go 1st up. I'll be sweating on the state of the track as Schweida has said he won't run the horse if it's heavy. Other hopes to Alcania (7), Bymonashee (3) and Nuptse (11).
Race 4 QT Provincial Cup 2150m
I have no doubts that Markout (2) is the best credentialed horse in the race. His form is very good for a race of this standard. This campaign he has been narrowly beaten by horses such as Volkhere and Awesome Ransom while beating Master Avatar and Mukaddamah Son. He handles a wet surface well as shown by his 3 placings from 4 on heavy going. The distance will not be a problem as he has won over 2200m. My only concern is the gate. He has drawn 2nd from the outside in a big field. Offsetting that is jockey Chris Munce. If he can get the horse into a decent position from out there then he will be awfully hard to hold out in the run home. Other hopes to Majestic Sound (7), How Fairdinkum (9) and Freton (1).
Race 5 Yalumba BM 75 1350m
This is a very challenging race. The speed should be solid here with a handful of horses that like to race forward. Finnigan's Folly (16) is one that will be suited by a nice speed up front. This filly has been racing in great style since resuming. In 4 races she's first two times and third in the other two. She went very close to winning all 4. She'll handle the distance and conditions well. We only have to look at her last start for proof of that where she had a tough run but still finished strongly to only go down by 0.4 of a length. Gets in with 54kg and has the services of Chris Munce. Other hopes to Mishani Warrior (2), Empress Me (11) and Diet (4).
***With the scratching of Finnigan's Folly, I'll promote Mishani Warrior (2) to my top pick. In a way that's made things easier for me as it was between it and Finnigan's Folly for top spot. Empress Me is also out so I'll add Run With Me (6) and Quarterly (15) to the other hopes. Having said that, the race has fallen away a bit now***
Race 6 Gai Waterhouse Classic 1350m
A lot of people are talking about Peron being a good thing here. I give it a great chance but it won't be the way I'll be going. I'll be with the Snowden trained Classics (3). This Sydneysider resumed 2 weeks ago over 1200m in slow going and ran on well for a length 5th behind stablemate Detours. Her 2nd up record is very good with 2 wins and 2nd from 4. Being a Commands mare she gets through a wet track and has won on both a heavy and slow surface. She won her only start over the distance and has a very good overally record. Draws the inside alley here and jockey Larry Cassidy will be able to position her beautifully. Other hopes to Peron (11), Sharnee Rose (4) and City Of Song (7).
Race 7 Ipswich Cup 2150m
This year's edition of the Ipswich Cup has been thrown wide open with the rain through the week. The Peter Moody trained Voila Ici will be a popular favourite but I just can't come at it with 60kg, a carpark draw and the price. The speed should be genuine. Voila Ici will want to lead but getting across from the outside won't be easy. The likes of Master Avatar, Ginga Dude, Za Magic and possibly Topping will all be working forward and could potentially hold Voila Ici wide. Because of this I'm going with Secret Garden (12). This mare is looking for the 2150m now after her last start 4th over 1818m. She stormed home in the slow going to miss by 2 lengths. She's drawn badly but she'll get back anyway so that isn't of concern. It won't matter how wet the track is as she eats it up. Drops 1.5kg on last start and gets the services of Michael Cahill. In an open race, I think she offers good value. Other hopes to Planetarium (14), Voila Ici (1) and Dodging Eddie (19).
Race 8 Eye Liner Stakes 1350m
The flying finish of Dances On Stars (15) last start in the Group 2 Queensland Guineas was eye catching to say the least. After drawing wide in that race, he raced 3 wide before being 5 wide on the turn. He then steamed home to go down by just 0.4 of a length to Sizzling. That was on slow going and with a much better barrier here in the peg, he'll be awfully hard to hold out. A wet track holds no concerns as shown by the fact he's never been out of the placings in 3 races on the surface. Other hopes to Conservatorium (1), Morning Captain (5) and Jetset Lad (3).
Race 9 Schweppes T.L. Cooney Handicap 1350m
It's a tough way to end the day but that's no surprise given the competitiveness of all prior races. There's plenty of value to be had with the favourite currently around the $7 mark. I'm going with Pretty Gully (7). This Spinning World filly has shown a liking for wet tracks as demonstrated by her 4.5 length win at the Gold Coast last start. Prior to that she finished off well to narrowly go down to General Groove who is also engaged here. She has drawn beautifully in barrier 2 and will be able to get in to a nice, forward position. That is something many of her more fancied rivals won't be able to do with ease. After the claim for apprentice Anthony Allen, she will carry just 52kg which could be all the difference on a wet track. Other hopes to My Shabella (6), General Groove (11) and Hold Me Tight (9).
Best Bets
Race 3 - Cape Kidnappers (6)
Race 6 - Classics (3)
Race 8 - Dances On Stars (15)
Race 2 Optus Ipswich Mile BM 85 1666m
Although What Happenedhenry (2) has not won beyond 1200m, I believe his best racing is done around this distance range. Last start he ran 3rd to Planetarium by 1.5 lengths over 1800m. He ran on well in the straight in what was a harder grade than this. He has won 2 from 3 at the track which shows he can handle the tight Ipswich circuit. His wet form is very good with 9 wins or placings from 13 starts on slow or heavy tracks. The 1666m start is a tricky one here so barriers are crucial. He's drawn 7 but that shouldn't be a problem and I can see him taking up a position just off the speed, 4 or so horses back. With the right run, he'll be finishing off better than most of these. Other hopes to Purfectress (8), Flying Home (9) and Requirement (11).
Race 3 Ray White Dash Class 6 1100m
Cape Kidnappers (6) resumes here after having 14 months off the scene. That is a slight query but based on his efforts prior to the spell, he'll be very hard to beat. This guy won 4 from 5 races and ran second in the other. Being by Commands, he can handle a wet track and this was never more evident than when he won on debut by 7.8 lengths. He's drawn barrier 9 but he should have the early speed to cross and take up the lead or a handy position. Making him an even tougher proposition is the fact that he finishes off his races strongly. He had an exhibition gallop last Friday at the track and I would doubt that trainer Kelly Schweida wouldn't have him ready to go 1st up. I'll be sweating on the state of the track as Schweida has said he won't run the horse if it's heavy. Other hopes to Alcania (7), Bymonashee (3) and Nuptse (11).
Race 4 QT Provincial Cup 2150m
I have no doubts that Markout (2) is the best credentialed horse in the race. His form is very good for a race of this standard. This campaign he has been narrowly beaten by horses such as Volkhere and Awesome Ransom while beating Master Avatar and Mukaddamah Son. He handles a wet surface well as shown by his 3 placings from 4 on heavy going. The distance will not be a problem as he has won over 2200m. My only concern is the gate. He has drawn 2nd from the outside in a big field. Offsetting that is jockey Chris Munce. If he can get the horse into a decent position from out there then he will be awfully hard to hold out in the run home. Other hopes to Majestic Sound (7), How Fairdinkum (9) and Freton (1).
Race 5 Yalumba BM 75 1350m
This is a very challenging race. The speed should be solid here with a handful of horses that like to race forward. Finnigan's Folly (16) is one that will be suited by a nice speed up front. This filly has been racing in great style since resuming. In 4 races she's first two times and third in the other two. She went very close to winning all 4. She'll handle the distance and conditions well. We only have to look at her last start for proof of that where she had a tough run but still finished strongly to only go down by 0.4 of a length. Gets in with 54kg and has the services of Chris Munce. Other hopes to Mishani Warrior (2), Empress Me (11) and Diet (4).
***With the scratching of Finnigan's Folly, I'll promote Mishani Warrior (2) to my top pick. In a way that's made things easier for me as it was between it and Finnigan's Folly for top spot. Empress Me is also out so I'll add Run With Me (6) and Quarterly (15) to the other hopes. Having said that, the race has fallen away a bit now***
Race 6 Gai Waterhouse Classic 1350m
A lot of people are talking about Peron being a good thing here. I give it a great chance but it won't be the way I'll be going. I'll be with the Snowden trained Classics (3). This Sydneysider resumed 2 weeks ago over 1200m in slow going and ran on well for a length 5th behind stablemate Detours. Her 2nd up record is very good with 2 wins and 2nd from 4. Being a Commands mare she gets through a wet track and has won on both a heavy and slow surface. She won her only start over the distance and has a very good overally record. Draws the inside alley here and jockey Larry Cassidy will be able to position her beautifully. Other hopes to Peron (11), Sharnee Rose (4) and City Of Song (7).
Race 7 Ipswich Cup 2150m
This year's edition of the Ipswich Cup has been thrown wide open with the rain through the week. The Peter Moody trained Voila Ici will be a popular favourite but I just can't come at it with 60kg, a carpark draw and the price. The speed should be genuine. Voila Ici will want to lead but getting across from the outside won't be easy. The likes of Master Avatar, Ginga Dude, Za Magic and possibly Topping will all be working forward and could potentially hold Voila Ici wide. Because of this I'm going with Secret Garden (12). This mare is looking for the 2150m now after her last start 4th over 1818m. She stormed home in the slow going to miss by 2 lengths. She's drawn badly but she'll get back anyway so that isn't of concern. It won't matter how wet the track is as she eats it up. Drops 1.5kg on last start and gets the services of Michael Cahill. In an open race, I think she offers good value. Other hopes to Planetarium (14), Voila Ici (1) and Dodging Eddie (19).
Race 8 Eye Liner Stakes 1350m
The flying finish of Dances On Stars (15) last start in the Group 2 Queensland Guineas was eye catching to say the least. After drawing wide in that race, he raced 3 wide before being 5 wide on the turn. He then steamed home to go down by just 0.4 of a length to Sizzling. That was on slow going and with a much better barrier here in the peg, he'll be awfully hard to hold out. A wet track holds no concerns as shown by the fact he's never been out of the placings in 3 races on the surface. Other hopes to Conservatorium (1), Morning Captain (5) and Jetset Lad (3).
Race 9 Schweppes T.L. Cooney Handicap 1350m
It's a tough way to end the day but that's no surprise given the competitiveness of all prior races. There's plenty of value to be had with the favourite currently around the $7 mark. I'm going with Pretty Gully (7). This Spinning World filly has shown a liking for wet tracks as demonstrated by her 4.5 length win at the Gold Coast last start. Prior to that she finished off well to narrowly go down to General Groove who is also engaged here. She has drawn beautifully in barrier 2 and will be able to get in to a nice, forward position. That is something many of her more fancied rivals won't be able to do with ease. After the claim for apprentice Anthony Allen, she will carry just 52kg which could be all the difference on a wet track. Other hopes to My Shabella (6), General Groove (11) and Hold Me Tight (9).
Best Bets
Race 3 - Cape Kidnappers (6)
Race 6 - Classics (3)
Race 8 - Dances On Stars (15)
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