04/08/12 - Doomben, Moonee Valley and Canterbury

Doomben

Race 1 - Currently the track is rated a Dead 4 and there is next to no chance of rain so we will finally be racing on a decent track in Brisbane which will give all runners a chance.  (As was thought to be the case, the track has been upgraded to a Good 3).  A few of these youngsters have had a bit of racing and are probably coming to the end of their campaigns.  I'm going with the fresh horse on the scene in Saddleback (3).  This horse has had only the 1 start and won over 1300m at the Sunshine Coast.  He came home well on a heavy track which leads me to believe 1600m won't be a problem.  Should get a nice run 3 or 4 horses back.  Other hopes to Show A Noee (1), Congo (4) and You're Mine (7).

Race 2 - With the scratching of Carry Me Bluey, only 5 runners will go around here.  Topping (3) has been racing in great heart lately and looks the 1 to beat.  Hopefully you took the $4 or so on offer before the scratching of Bluey because it's probably not worth the risk now. 

Race 3 - This looks a great race for Hidden Kisses (3).  She has been rattling home in her last couple of runs suggesting she is wanting this distance in a big way.  She has been racing in a lot better quality races than the rest of these.  It's hard to see many of these competing like she did.  She gets a more favourable firmer ground and I'm sure she'll relish the improved conditions.  Understandably we're being asked to take a very short price here.  Other hopes to Welcome Parade (8), Granzella (1) and Magic Tartan (5).

Race 4 - Here it is.....the race that has me pulling my hair out every Saturday in Brisbane.  The level of consistency in these 2000m + races is low which makes it hard to find the winner.  I'm going with 1 that actually is consistent in Warrior Within (2).  This guy has filled the placings in his last 4 starts around this distance and has never been further back than 2 lengths.  He'll get a nice run from the inside gate.  I considered Saint Encosta but I was swayed by the fact that Warrior Within will meet it better at the weights from the last time they met.  Other hopes to Saint Encosta (3) and Racing Heart (1).

Race 5 - The pace should be solid here with a handful of horses engaged that like to roll forward.  That will suit the likes of Venture On and Iking who I believe will be fighting out the finish.  I found it hard to separate the pair but the weight difference and the jockey swayed me.  I've gone with Iking (4) as he Brisbane premiership winning jockey Chris Munce in the saddle and also will carry 4kg less.  Iking has been running on his last few starts so the 1600m should be ideal here.  As previously mentioned, the speed should enhance his chances to come over the top in the straight.  Other hopes to Venture On (1), Rhetoric (2) and Collector (10).

Race 6 - The Reveller (11) is 1 of those horses that I just can't catch.  Every time I think a race is right up his alley, he misses out.  Should I stick with him?  The answer to that is probably not but I am.  He looks tremendous value here around the $10 mark.  He goes well at this track and distance and also does some of his best work when resuming.  He gets the in form jockey Jeff Lloyd to steer and that should give him the best possible chance to unleash his trademark charge to the line.  Other hopes to Liesele (3), Too Many Reds (1) and Trail Boss (2).

Race 7 - The Sixties is the 1 to beat here. I think Skating On Ice (6) can do it though.  She's drawn the outside which is far from ideal but I think young Allen should be able to get her into a reasonable position.  The key here is that she'll get a dry track.  Her record is excellent on good/dead tracks and she goes particularly well at this track.  She's a couple of kegs better off than The Sixties for running 1.2 lengths from him.  Other hopes The Sixties (1), Shekinaar (4) and Power O'Raylee (8).


Race 8 - Startsmeup (11) is the class runner of the field and should win here.  The outside barrier makes the short price not very attractive but I can't see him getting beaten here.  Jeff Lloyd will be able to decide whether he wants to take him forward or back and I trust he'll make the right decision.  The horse has been racing in great style lately, coming into this off a 3rd in the Winter Stakes at Warwick Farm.  His record at the track and distance is tops.  Other hopes to Starlin (10), War Charm (12) and Danagaze (1).


Best Bet


Multi - Race 2 Number 3 Topping / Race 3 Number 3 Hidden Kisses / Race 8 Number 11 Startsmeup


Moonee Valley


Race 1 - Number 2 King's Pardon
Race 5 - Number 9 Oregon Spirit
Race 8 - Number 10 Glows


Canterbury


Race 4 Number 4 Umatain
Race 7 Number 6 Kaypers
Race 8 Number 2 Number One Gun