Monday 30 September 2013

Sportsbet Melbourne Cup Blog Competition

G'day friends of the Silk.  I'm writing today to request a minute of your time.  I was recently asked by the people at Sportsbet to write a short blog entry for their Melbourne Cup Blog competition.  The winner can win two tickets to The Melbourne Cup Precinct area with reserved seating.  With that on the table, how could I refuse? 

The winner will be decided by the most facebook likes for their entry.  So I ask you to click the following link and then click the facebook "like button".  Feel free to share my entry with your friends as the winner will be the entry with the most likes.  

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/blog/guest-blogger-competition/melbourne-cup-the-race-that-stops-a-nation

I thank you for your time and your support.     

Friday 27 September 2013

28/09/13 - Eagle Farm

Last Saturday was a strange kind of a day with just the 2 winners found.  These being Flying Home in the opening event at $2.10 and De Dozen Stars at $7 Top Fluc.  However if you used the top 4 selections in each leg of the Quadrella then you would have landed the $3500 that it paid.  By the end of the day it had turned into a little bottler for the Silk.  There was also a $1200 1st 4 in race 3.   

We race at Eagle Farm for the second week in a row and conditions are the same.  Bright blue skies with temperatures around the 28 degree mark.  Again some showers have been forecast but I doubt they'll eventuate.  Even if they do, it would probably be a godsend given the track is rock hard just like Jake's abba dabbas.

***Updated Weather:  I'm not as confident that showers/rain won't hit the track at some point.  It's quite overcast and there was activity around 5am.  I would be very careful if the track gets downgraded as my selections have been based on a good track.  A dead rating would be as far as I'd go before reaccessing backing my top picks***

Race 1

I won't be knocking people over to get a bet on here.  As is often the case with these 2000m+ races, it's a bit of a lottery.  I'll have an involvement bet on Wishmore (9).  I'm hardly convinced that it's the one but it will give a good showing.  It's record over the trip is a consistent one with 8 wins or placings from 10 starts.  No dramas it getting the trip!  Last start in a tougher grade it was hitting the line strongly.  Stays at the same weight and gets Chris Munce in the saddle.  Both are positives.  Other hopes to Borehole (1), How Fairdinkum (2) and Soul Crusade (4).

Race 2

They'll fly here early in this 1000m race.  There could be 6 (over half the field) pushing forward once the gates open.  That should give horses settling back a fair crack here.  Missy Longstocking (5) will not be involved in any speed battle and will charging to the line.  She loves this track and distance as shown by her perfect 2 from 2 record.  She will race with 54kg after the claim for young Aidan Holt.  She is resuming here so fitness levels are a query but there's no denying her class.  Other hopes to Pure Purrfection (8), Susashi (7) and Rocky King (3).

***With the late scratching of Susashi, I'll promote Mr Favulous (1) to the other hopes***

Race 3

Unlike the previous race there won't be too many horses vying for the lead.  I'm going with Bribie (1).  He has been flying lately and came agonisingly close to grabbing the cash for us last start.  I would like to see him settle no worse than midfield as with an average speed, backmarkers will find it difficult to make ground.  This guy loves the track and this is his pet distance.  Will race with 56kg after the claim for Geoffrey Goold.  The big thing here with Bribie is how far off the leaders he'll be entering the straight.  If he's only a few lengths off then they won't stop his powerful finish.  Other hopes to The Storeman (8), QFighter (10) and Youthful King (7).

Race 4

Vintage Moss (8) looks an excellent chance here.  It's a competitive race but this guy is racing in particularly good form.  He loves this track and distance winning 4 of 9 starts.  He is coming off a freshen up which he really appreciates.  Will race with 52kg after the claim for Kirk Matheson.  He's drawn barrier 3 and I can see him settling just behind the speed which should be quite solid given the 4 horses drawn to the outside like to race forward.  Heads into this race on the back of a 3.5 length trial win over Better Than Ready.  Flying?  You better believe it!  Other hopes to Signified (3), Listen Son (2) and Adebisi (1).

Race 5

Really tricky way to kick off the quadrella.  I have a sneaky feeling that a blowout could occur here.  So including a few in your 1st leg isn't a bad idea.  I'm going to go with Gotta Be Lucky (9).  We'll need to be too in the is race.  This mare has been forever running on lately.  The step up to 1600m will suit and we'll just need the speed to be reasonable for her to feature in the finish.  She has form around the likes of Cuddlesome and Jacquetta which should hold her in good stead here.  Other hopes to Show Us A Smile (6), Courtz Boy (4) and Wind Wand (3). 

Race 6

Very competitive race for 3 year olds over 1600m.  A few of these have been mixing it up lately but I'm going for 1 that comes from a different form line.  Moon And The Stars (9) enters this on the back of 2 northern NSW wins and a very close 2nd at the Gold Coast.  This filly really hits the line hard so the 1600m should suit nicely.  Rikki Jamieson claims 3kg and the horse will carry just a postage stamp weight of 51kg.  I just think this horse offers terrific value in an open race.  Other hopes to Tornado Miss (5), Treasure Map (4) and Grey Countess (6).

***With the scratching of Grey Countess, I'll promote Voodoo Blue Magic (1) to the other hopes***

Race 7

Someday (3) comes back to Brisbane after 2 unsuccessful races in Sydney.  Those were Group races and he was hardly embarrassed.  This is much easier company and given his class, he'll be hard to hold out.  He gets in with 53kg after the claim for Holt.  Other hopes to Epic Terra (5), Volkhere (9) and Sir Knox (11).

Race 8

What About Me (7) will do me in the get out stakes.  This guy resumed after quite some time off with a fast finishing 3rd over 1350m.  The step up to 1600m will suit and it's a distance that he has liked in the past.   He meets the 2 that beat him last time better at the weights and has drawn nicely to take a sit not far off the leaders.  Other hopes to Aldini (5), Memorable Moment (1) and Regular (2).

Best Bets

Race 3 - Bribie (1)

Race 4 - Vintage Moss (8)

27/09/13 - Moonee Valley Moir Stakes

I found out last week courtesy of the good people at www.thegreattipoff.com that I have returned a profit of 16% at Moonee Valley over the past year.  48 winners which equates to 1 in every 3 tips saluting.  To be honest I was shocked with these results.  Hopefully I haven't put the mock on myself by going public so to speak with tonight's picks! 
 
Race 1 - Hucklebuck (7)
 
Race 2 - Vibrant Rouge (4)
 
Race 3 - Sertorius (7)*
 
Race 4 - Miracles Of Life (1)
 
Race 5 - Day Procedure (3)***
 
Race 6 - Divine Calling (2)**
 
Race 7 - Gris Caro (5)
 
Race 8 - Samaready (10)    

Friday 20 September 2013

21/09/13 - Eagle Farm

Well last week was unfortunately another fizzer.  However it could have gone the other way and been an absolute pearler if not for few very narrow losses.  The Silk's 3 best bets were Epic Terra, Bribie and Magic In Motion.  If you were like the Silk and had an all up then you would probably be still crying in your beer. 

Epic Terra got the all up away to a nice start winning by 3.3 lengths.  Then it went pear shaped with Bribie losing by 0.2 of a length and Magic In Motion losing by 0.3 of a length. At the end of the day it doesn't matter how much they lost by...they still lost. 

Hopefully this Saturday we can get over that back at Eagle Farm where we will be blessed with a good track.  The rain earlier in the week will have taken the rock hardness out of it which the horses will appreciate. 

Race 1

Could be a tricky way to kick things off here.  Just the 6 runners entered and it's over 2106m.  I wouldn't knock anyone for giving this race a wide berth.  However for those wanting to get involved, I'd be looking at Flying Home (1).  Barry Baldwin has this guy racing well with back to back wins over this distance.  He's up in the weights but I'm not sure any of these lack his ability over the trip.  Munce can box seat the horse and prove tough to hold out.  Hardest to beat is Mukaddamah Son (2).

Race 2

Jacquetta (2) may have received the gun run last time out but you've got to be good enough to put yourself there to receive it.  I can see her going back to back here.  She'll be able to sit off a decent speed upfront and come home strongly like she did in her last start win.  The extra distance will suit as she was running away from 3 others engaged here.  Other hopes to Pickabee (6), Amalfi Dreams (5) and Write Cheek (3).

Race 3

Hollywood Bound (7) looks well placed here to get the victory.  He enters this race on the back of an excellent 2nd to Soul Crusade where he ran on strongly to go down by a half head.  He meets Soul Crusade 1.5kg better at the weights here.  Also to his advantage is the fact that he's drawn beautifully in barrier 3.  Jockey Patrick Holmes climbs back aboard and he has a super record on the horse winning 2 and placing in 1 other from 4 rides.  Other hopes to Borehole (4), How Fairdinkum (5) and Soul Crusade (8).

Race 4

I'm not keen on the price ($3) for Billy Aucash (5) but he's in form which cannot be said for the majority of these.  You don't have to look to hard to see that he's come out of some very good form races lately.  He comes into this on the back of a soft win where he showed a clean set of heels in the straight.  The extra distance will suit as shown by his record of 2 wins from 3 at the trip.  He also enjoys racing at this track which is a bonus.  Other hopes to Dolly Dolly (3), Essington (2) and Face Off (10).

Race 5

As could be expected over the 1000m, the speed will be on.  We could see up to 7 horses vying for the early lead as the majority of speed horses have drawn wide.  I'm supporting Shazzle Pazzle (8) in her quest to break her bridesmaid's status.  Incredibly she's run 2nd in her last 5 starts but looks well placed here.  She gets in with just 51kg after the claim for the apprenctice Jeffries.  She'll be able to take up a box seat position from her nice gate and then come with a flash in the straight.  Other hopes to Love Rocks (11), Ticket To Dream (6) and Who Will (5).

Race 6

In a tricky affair I'm going with the Barry Baldwin trained De Dozen Stars (7).  He'll be given a great run from the peg by Larry Cassidy.  Whether he leads or box seats is up to Larry but either way he'll be well positioned.  His form recently has been good with wins over 1200m and 1350m.  Other hopes to Falino (4), Ollie Vollie (1) and D'Jet (6).

Race 7

This will be a very keenly contested race for 3 year olds.  Any number of these would not surprise as the winner.  That should mean value for whatever selection you make.  I'm going to back Prussian Heart (4).  Prior to his last start, he raced very well.  I'm prepared to forgive him for his last start failure as he raced wide throughout and the 1000m was probably too short for him.  He draws nicely here in barrier 3 and gets 3kg's off for apprentice Goold.  He'll be able to sit 3rd or 4th in the run.  He's shown a competitive spirit at the end of races and that should put him right in the finish here.  Other hopes to Cannyzing (2), Londehero (6) and Queen Of The Lochs (9).

Race 8

It's appropriate that we finish a tough card with a very competitive race.  Quadrella players will have earned their money if they are successful!  I'm going with Just A Perla (7).  This guy is a model of consistency.  He's won 3 from 13 but has only been out of the placings in 2 of those 13.  He loves this distances winning 2 and placing 2nd in 3 starts.  Last start he fought hard to run 2nd to the decent horse Qfighter where back markers were helped.  He's drawn barrier 3 so young Anthony Allen will be able to take advantage of that and race in front or box seat.  At around the $10 mark I think he represents excelllent value.  Other hopes to Elmantosh (8), Big Decision (10) and Flying Fuji (12).  

Best Bets

Race 2 - Jacquetta (2)

Race 3 - Hollywood Bound (7)

Race 8 - Just A Perla (7) e/w  
    

Friday 13 September 2013

14/09/13 - Doomben

Last weekend was deplorable for The Silk.  A single placing from the 8 races.  Surely it can't be as bad this Saturday!  As The Snorkel says, it only costs money to find out! 

The only highlight for me was backing Ruby Ride in the last at the Gold Coast on Full On By which paid the delicious dividend of $21 for the win.  Thanks heaps Ruby...you saved the Silk!  Enough trying to find some positives, let's get into Saturday's form.  

Racing in Brisbane is at Doomben and once again we'll be racing on a good track.  It's been very dry up here but they have predicted a few showers.  I would say that's just covering their rumps on the off chance it spits.  

Race 1

I was caught out big time last Saturday by declaring one of this distance horses a best bet.  I was sucked in and backed a cat that had the run of the race and found nothing.  I won't be declaring here but I will be backing Magic Ivy (6).  This mare has been finding the line well lately and has appreciated the rise in distances.  Last start she finished 1.3 lengths 2nd to Platinum Jack over this distance.  She was held up 400 out but still found the line well.  A repeat of that should see her right in the finish.  Anthony Allen keeps the ride and he's been in top form recently.  Other hopes to Za Magic (3), Raeburn (4) and Mukaddamah Son (1).

Race 2
      
This could be a tricky race to catch over the 1010m scamper so be careful.  I'm going with the Kelso Wood trained Signified (1).  He resumes here after 5 months.  His 1st up record is sound winning 2 of 4.  He probably wants it a bit further but the pace should be solid which will help him.  He gets 3kg's off for apprentice Holt which brings him in very nicely.  His form last prep was very good in listed company.  Other hopes to Saluter (4), Miss Imagica (2) and Rocket To Glory (6).

***With the scratching of Saluter, I'll promote Buckmore (7) to the other hopes***

Race 3

Half these come out of the same race last start.  The race I refer to was won by Bodega Negra.  It's run was very nice but I'll be going for the horse that finished 3rd, Voodoo Blue Magic (1).  In that race he drew wide and jockey Vance took him back.  He showed a nice finish and only went down by a length.  The extra distance will suit.  Today he has drawn much better in barrier 5 which will give Vance the opportunity to settle much closer.  Voodoo Blue Magic meets Bodega Negra 2kg's better at the weights.  Other hopes to Bodega Negra (2), Tornado Miss (5) and Vaz De Torres (3). 

Race 4

Going with the ever consistent Epic Terra (7) here.  This guy went down last start by a short 1/2 head to Equissential which was a very good effort.  His record over the trip and at this track is a good 1, winning 2 and placing in the other 2 from 4 starts.  He'll once again get a great run and gets in with a postage stamp weight.  I think this is a case of short but sweet.  Very hard to beat!  Other hopes to Revitalise (9), Equissential (4) and Noisy Ocean (8).

Race 5

We have a very competitive affair to kick start the quaddie.  Heart Of Many (8) was hampered by a slowish pace last time out but I don't think that will be the case here.  Show Us A Smile will lead but may be pushed early by several that have drawn wide.  I'm prepared to forgive Heart Of Many last start and look back 2 starts when he was impressive over this trip.  From barrier 5, Larry Cassidy will be able to position the horse nicely.  Other hopes to Manicero (2), Danyme (11) and Uno Five (5).


Race 6

Bribie (2) is a horse in form and getting conditions to suit.  That makes him very hard to beat.  He has a tremendous record at the track and distance, winning 4 and placing in 2 others from 10 starts.  He enters this on the back of a fast finishing 3rd where he went down by a length a race that favoured on pacers.  He has drawn barrier 1 and I would hope that Browne doesn't get him pocketed away as he'll be full of running in the straight.  Other hopes to Memorable Moment (8), Spot The Rock (5) and Balkuin (7).

Race 7

Mr Zoolander (6) looks an excellent value bet here at around the $13 mark.  This guy has come from South Australia and won both his starts at the Gold Coast with ease.  He steps up in class here but I think he's ready.  He loves this distance winning 3 and placing once from 4 starts.  Other hopes to Regular (9), Vacallo (2) and Aldini (5). 

Race 8

Anthony Allen can ride bookend winners here by guiding Magic In Motion (14) to victory in the last.  This mare resumes after a very good 3 year old campaign where she competed in Group company during the winter.  She has a good 1st up record and goes well over this shorter distance fresh.  She won a trial leading into this so I would suggest she's ready to go.  Other hopes to Itchintowin (7), Elusive Storm (12) and Pickabee (15).

***With the scratchings of Itchintowin and Elusive Storm, I'll promote Leviosa (3) and Anna Lizzie (10) to the other hopes***

Best Bets

Race 4 - Epic Terra (7)

Race 6 - Bribie (2)

Race 8 - Magic In Motion (14)     

Friday 6 September 2013

07/09/13 - Eagle Farm

After having the past 2 Saturday's off, The Silk is back with a vengeance.  The racing is heating up down south but I'll be taking a look at the locals.    
 
With more sunny weather on the menu we'll be racing on a Good 3 Eagle Farm track.  The rail is out 3.5m and if recent trends are anything to go by, we should be looking for runners that race in a forward position.
 
Vote 1 - The Silk!
 
Race 1
 
We kick things off with one of those pesky 2200m races.  Normally I can't stand these as they tend to be a case of pot luck.  However today I'm putting Escoffier (1) on top.  This guy has been a model of consistency in recent times.  He hasn't been out of the placings in his last 5 starts.  In those races the only horse here that has challenged him has been Spanish Halo.  He meets that horse 2kg better off for going down by the barest of margins last time out.  The beauty of this guy is that he'll take up the running and that will make him awfully hard to pass in the straight.  Other hopes to Spanish Halo (2), Platinum Jack (4) and Excellent Al (5).
 
Race 2
 
Although only 7 horses are engaged here, this should be a competitive race with tactics playing a big part in deciding the victor.  Lightfeet Lady and Amalfi Dreams will push forward from their wide draws making the speed decent.  For that reason I'll be going with Pure Purrfection (1).  She has drawn barrier 4 and I can see Wiggins settling her just behind the leaders in the box seat.  She has been racing in good form recently.  Her past 2 starts have been at this track and distance where she was finishing strongly to just go down.  The form around Bribie and Divine City should hold up well here.  Other hopes to Jacquetta (6), Amalfi Dreams (5) and Walk With Attitude (4).
 
Race 3
 
Ding ding ding!  Alarms bells should be going off for Listen Son (2)!  We see a similar field line up here that Listen Son put to the sword 2 weeks ago.  Importantly in this small field, I can't see what's going to change speed wise.  In that race Listen Son flew the gates and was never threatened, winning by 1.5 lengths.  He drew the inside here but gets the outside in this race and I can't see him doing anything different.  Larry Cassidy can shoot across to lead without fuss and then prove hard to catch in the straight.  Other hopes to Funtantes (1), Tokamak (3) and Mishani Warrior (5). 
 
Race 4

I'm not overly keen on this race but I will be supporting Hollywood Bound (4).  This guy has done enough to suggest that the 1800m will suit nicely.  His 3 runs since a freshen up have been excellent.  He's won 2 of them and last start he finished 5th after having little luck.  In that run he was held up from the 400m to the 100m before getting out late.  Obviously the concern here is that Bevico Girl will get a break in the straight and won't be able to be caught.  I don't think that will happen here as our boy has been very strong and the extra metres will help his cause.  I also don't expect him to be a that far back.  Maybe 4th the fence which will give him the chance to run over the top.  Other hopes to Bevico Girl (3), Karanja (5) and Cosmonaut (1).

Race 5

There looks a tonne of speed engaged here.  That concerns me as it places doubt over where they'll possie up.  I'm going with Heza Bobby Dazzler (5) following his impressive debut run.  In that race he raced 3 wide on the speed throughout and managed to pull away in the straight.   He ran quick time and you would assume has further improvement from that hit out.  Chris Munce takes the ride which should ensure the proper tactics are employed.  Down in weight.  Other hopes to Tisani Tomso (1), Prussian Heart (2) and Friendly Dragon (4).

Race 6

Again the speed should be solid over this short sprint.  Easy Game (4) had her unbeaten streak broken last time out but wasn't disgraced finishing 2nd.  She drops 5kg here and will appreciate the weight drop.  She absolutely loves this distance and will get a glorious run from gate 2.  Goltz will be able to put her into a beautiful position and I suspect will be right in the finish.  Other hopes to Little Favours (6), Diamond Trail (10) and Whitlam (1).

Race 7

Hot diggity this is a tough race!  Powerful Jet (6) has been racing really well of late and will get my support.  He rises 3.5kg in weight which isn't ideal but I think he's good enough to overcome that.  He's only been out of the placings 4 times in 14 races and does his best racing over this distance.  I can see Cassidy getting the horse across from the awkward gate as he did last time out and settling in the first 3 or 4 horses.  He's been strong at the finish and he'll need to be here.  Other hopes to Big Decision (10), Little Long Horn (4) and Manicero (5).

Race 8

I'm taking 1 at decent odds in the get out stakes.  General Shareef (7) resumed after a lengthy spell a few weeks ago and narrowly lost when condition gave out.  He'll be fitter for that run and I can see him running well here.  He's drawn barrier 3 and I can John Wilson's favourite jockey Ric McMahon taking advantage of that and pushing forward.  The horse has traditionally raced back but that 1st up run showed that it was able to race handy.  He's down in weight and I think in an open race he's worth an each way ticket at around the $15 mark.  Was scratched midweek for this.  Other hopes to Qfighter (12), Arado (3) and Ring Me Ruby (8).

Best Bets

Race 1 - Escoffier (1)

Race 3 - Listen Son (2)