Friday 26 July 2013

27/07/13 - Doomben

Last week was a bit of write off with the wet track at Eagle Farm.  Yes it rained but personally I have my suspicions it was the work of the BSU.  From that point the track had no hope and it was rated heavy.  The Silk found just the 1 winner in Lady Echelon. 

Racing is back at Doomben this Saturday so at least we will know what we're up against.  Currently the track is rated Dead 5 as at 3pm Friday.  The weather has been glorious today but apparently there is a chance of showers (is that just standard BOM advice?).  I'll work my form around a dead track.

Race 1

Punters can get in early here with Bribie (2).  Rob Heathcote looks to have placed his horse beautifully here.  He has an imposing record over at this track and distance with 4 wins and a 2nd from 8 starts.  He's drawn wide out but that shouldn't be a problem with the genuine speed set in front.  After the claim for Geoff Goold, he'll carry just 53kg.  He won't know himself with such a light weight!  A drying surface will only be to his liking.  Other hopes to Aldini (6), Tough Taimz (3) and Crazy Mamma (7).

Brilliant! Just finished my write up and found out that Bribie had been scratched after I started. Quite annoying as it was 1 of the best of the day. Aldini (6) now takes top spot.  

Race 2

I think Little Bit Ditsy (9) can turn the tables on Agitate here.  Two weeks ago Little Bit Ditsy lost by the narrowest of margins to Agitate after charging to the line.  Agitate goes up 1kg while LBD stays at the same weight.  I think that could be all the difference here.  Once again Michael Cahill is in the saddle and the horse has drawn nicely.  Other hopes to Teronado (2), Agitate (1) and Canisbay (4).

***With the scratching of Canisbay, I'll promote Voodoo Blue Magic (3) to the other hopes***

Race 3

I believe Solebid (3) will appreciate a drying track and a drop in class and offers tremendous value here.  He comes out of the listed Tatt's Mile and prior to that the Rockhampton Cup where his form has been solid.  He draws wide here but I believe Chris Munce will be able to get him into a decent position despite that.  He enjoys racing at Doomben and won his only start over the track and distance.  Other hopes to Keep It Moist (7), Carmine King (1) and Mr Orient (8).

Race 4

Garozza (4) is a horse that loves this distance and particularly at this track.  He has won or placed in 7 from 8 at the distance and importantly has won both attempts at the track and distance.  He's drawn wide but that won't faze him as he'll push forward anyway.  There doesn't look to be much competition for the lead here and he could dictate terms and if that's the case, he'll be hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Pepperwood (2), Mukaddamah Son (3) and Bidspotter (1).

Race 5

I'm going with Pure Purrfection (9) in this open scamper over 1010m.  She has a good record over the trip winning 4 from 9.  She has also rarely finished out of the quinella at this track.  Last start she was slow away and played no part in the finish.  However prior to that her form was very good.  With a better start, she'll be closer to the action and ready to pounce in the straight when the others start to tire.  Gets the services of Michael Cahill.  Other hopes to QFighter (13), I'm Cool (1) and Lennie's Choice (7).

Race 6

These 2000m+ races haven't been too bad in recent times but this 1 looks to revert back to "let's take turns" days.  As a believer in involvement, I'll have a small interest bet on Retune (5).  This guy was an iron horse at the Grafton Carnival.  He narrowly lost over 2120m and then won over 2100m just days later.  He has a good record over the trip which is a good starting point in such a pot luck type of race.  He's drawn badly but there appears to be little speed so Paul Hammersley could very well push the horse forward into a fair position.  I must stress this is a race I really don't like but for quadrella players I'd be looking at Flying Home (1), Thirsty For Blood (2), Clangor (3), Awesome Ransom (4), Moment To Remember (7), Hardman Harry (8), Escoffier (12). 

Race 7

Based on form, Mr Testa (3) looks extremely tough to beat here.  Since resuming off a long break, he has never been very far off the mark.  He has been competitive against the likes of Casino Card and beaten Sons Of God, Viking Heart and Clangor.  His record over this trip is great only being out of the quinella once in 5 tries.  He does his best racing on a dead surface which he'll get here.  Draws out a bit but young Butler who claims 2kg will be able to get him into a handy spot early.  Other hopes to Casse Sqarette (4), Special Miss (8) and Princess Lyca (6).

Race 8

Discreet (2) can send punters out a winner in the get out stakes.  Although The Silk picked General Exhibit last time out when he defeated Discreet, it was only the poor barrier that steered me away from Discreet in that race.  Today she draws a much better barrier and will prove hard to toss.  She is a classier individual than her rivals here and that alone will take her a long way.  3 starts back she ran 5th in the Dane Ripper. Could you see any of these being able to do that?  Will be hitting the line hard.  Other hopes to Regular (3), Avaladyluck (10) and Caliente (6).

Best Bets

Race 2 - Little Bit Ditsy (9)

Race 7 - Mr Testa (3)

Race 8 - Discreet (2) 
  
 
     

Friday 19 July 2013

20/07/13 - Eagle Farm

Last Saturday saw The Silk find 3 winners on the 8 race card at Doomben.  These being Cape Kidnappers $1.60, Loaded $3.80 and General Exhibit $5.50.  We move back to Eagle Farm this week and with rain forecast, chances are the track will be wet.  I'll be doing my form on a slow/heavy track.  

I won't be doing a write up on each race as we've had some big news affecting the shop that has required my attention.

Race 1 - Even the involvement king can't take this race on. 

Race 2 - Secret Harmony (2), Outback Lightning (4), Rusty Colours (5) and Rudy (7)

Race 3 - Micken (4), Viking Heart (2), Double Impact (1) and Triple Oh (8)

Race 4 - Rouvray (2), Gotitallwrong (7), Stolen Kisses (5) and Massuri (3)

Race 5 - Carmine King (3), Hidden Kisses (2), Vintage Moss (1) and Divine City (5)
***Top 3 picks have been scratched.  I think it's safe to say this race is best avoided***

Race 6 - Lennie's Choice (3), Lightfeet Lady (4), Tom's Luck (13) and Qfighter (11)
***LL, TL and Qfighter all scratched.  Hope you got on Lennie's Choice last night!***

Race 7 - Whateverwhenever (8), Benny's Buttons (4), Shafeeq (5) and Grey Assignment (1)

Race 8 - Lady Echelon (6), Courtz Boy (2), Itchintowin (8) and Seen (9)

Race 9 - Casino Card (2), Got Unders (6), Buakaw (4) and Little Long Horn (3)

Best Bets

Race 2 - Secret Harmony (2)

Race 8 - Lady Echelon (6)

Race 9 - Casino Card (2)   
    

Friday 12 July 2013

13/07/13 - Doomben

Last Saturday wasn't one that set the world on fire.  Just the one winner was found and that was Doubtfilly.  However thanks to the corporates who have the payout protest feature, The Silk did make a small profit.  Micken at $7 was first past the post but was relegated back to 4th on protest.  As is always the case, we have another chance this Saturday to find some winners.

Currently the Doomben track is rated a slow 6.  With the potential for showers I'll be working my form around the track being slow with a chance to improve to dead for Saturday.  Thankfully we're not racing at Eagle Farm where on Wednesday we had the ridiculous situation of the track going from dead to heavy with hardly any rain.  Once again supporting my back straight urination theory. 

Race 1

Cape Kidnappers (4) resumed a month ago at Ipswich and put pay to the opposition.  2nd up he ran 2nd at the Sunshine Coast on a heavy track.  Although he was a short quote that day, it's understandable that he may have been a bit flat 2nd up after a long break.  That's not to say the way he raced wasn't without merit as he still finished off well.  He drops from 60kg to 54kg here and that will prove beneficial.  Draws towards the outside but I don't see a problem with getting a position early in the run.  Overall record hard to ignore.  Other hopes to All That (3) and Azzaland (1).

Race 2

This is a really tricky race for 2 year olds.  We potentially could have 6 or 7 horses fighting for the early lead.  I'll be having an each way bet on Rusty Colours (5).  This guy has come back a nice horse.  In 2 starts on heavy going he has won well and finished off well for 2nd behind Hallside Rose.  He's drawn the outside gate but I don't think that will be much of a problem given his style of getting back and the fact that there should be plenty of speed.  In fact it should play into his hands.  We know he handles a wet track and I believe Hallside Rose is a nice horse so that should be good form for this.  Having said all this, I won't be getting carried away as it's a very open race.  Other hopes to Little Bit Ditsy (11), Choose A Saga (2) and Tisani Tomso (6).

Race 3

Youthful King (4) enters this race in great form.  Following a freshen up he has won his past 2 starts.  Both have been on heavy going.  He's drawn the outside here but again I don't think that will be a problem.  Thefifthhole will run them along out in front which will help this guy get into the race in the straight.  It should be noted that 2 starts back he drew wide and raced 4 wide throughout but was stil too powerful hitting the line.  Gets 3kg relief for jockey Rachael Murray who has ridden the horse with success previously.  Unlike some of his rivals, he'll run the 1200m out strongly.  Other hopes to Thefifthhole (5), Kelbenjar (1) and Style (11).

Race 4

Again we are faced with another tricky affair.  Alcancia (2) goes up in weight but is down in grade.  Offsetting the weight increase is the placement of Brooke Richardson who claims 3kg.  This mare has been racing in good form and likes a wet track.  Her 1.9 length 7th in listed company last start should be good form for this.  She's been hitting the line hard so the step up to 1350m here should be to her liking.  My confidence levels will be improved if the track remains wet.  Other hopes to Miss Bradbury (4), Cuddlesome (1) and Princess Lyca (5).

Race 5

Sticking with Flying Home (4) in this mediocre 2100m race.  He's been racing over 1600m and 1800m in his most recent races but looks like he is wanting further.  He's hit the line hard in all those races.  Gets a drier surface here which will be to his liking.  Wide draw won't bother him as he likes to get back and run on.  Other hopes to Handsome Dane (7), Cash 'N' Style (3) and How Fairdinkum (11).

***With the scratching of Cash 'N' Style, I'll promote Clangor (10) to the other hopes***

Race 6

I must have a thing for wide drawing horses today.  I'm going with the Sydneysider Inside Job (8).  This fellow has drawn the outside barrier but I can see being able to follow Sons Of God across to take up a position in the leading handful of horses.  His form down south recently has been over shorter trips than this but he has raced and won over this trip in past campaigns.  Last start he finished 3.4 lengths of Big Bonanza on heavy going and that horse narrowly lost the Ramornie this week.  Surely that has to be good form for a race like this.  Has a good overall record and won't be here for a haircut.  Other hopes to Mishani Warrior (2), Bribie (1) and Sons Of God (3).

Race 7

The Tattersall's Mile looks a race in 2 for mine between Loaded and Lucky Hussler.  These 2 are the youngsters down in the weights but importantly in form.  That cannot be said for the rest of these who are struggling.  I'm going with Loaded (10).  He was impressive 1st up after a 31 day freshen up when hitting the line hard over 1500m.  He put Tax Evader who had been racing well to the sword.  With that run under the belt, Loaded will be fitter and tougher to beat.  Likes a wet track and the distance is right up his alley.  Other hopes to Lucky Hussler (9), Solebid (12) and Boogie Shoes (13). 

Race 8

We get to the final race of a tough day and as expected there's no gimmes here.  I'm putting General Exhibit (2) on top here but I'll be paying particular attention to the track condition.  If it's still in the slow range, I'll be giving some serious thought to not backing him.  Although not a total duffer in the wet, he much prefers it on top of the ground.  He has a great record at this track and trip.  He draws nicely to get the gun run and gets 3kg relief for apprentice McGuren.  Meets a few of these better at the weights from when they last met.  Other hopes to Tukiyo (11), Discreet (1) and Regular (3).


Best Bets

Race 7 - Quinella Loaded (10)/Lucky Hussler (9)

Other than that just get involved!        

Friday 5 July 2013

06/07/13 - Eagle Farm Queensland Cup Day

Last Saturday just the 2 winners were found on the 9 race card at Sunshine Coast.  These being the highly promising Hallside Rose ($5.30) and Zennista ($6.60).  Thankfully the prices were a spoil which resulted in a profit.  

This Saturday we head back to Eagle Farm where we have a rare 3200m race for the Queensland Cup.  The track is currently rated in the heavy range but with fine weather predicted, we should see an improvement to slow.  Given the drainage problems at Eagle Farm, I really couldn't see it getting better than that.  

Race 1

This 2 year old race over 1500m isn't one I'm going to be getting overly excited about.  Having said that, I will be supporting the Len Treloar trained You Did What (2).  This guy comes off a 5th to Hallside Rose last Saturday where he failed to overcome a wide barrier and raced wide throughout.  He won his 2 starts prior to that.  He has shown that he can handle heavy tracks by winning 2 from 3 on them so he won't be affected by a wet track.  I don't see the 1500m being a problem as he pulled away from his rivals 2 starts back over 1400m.  Draws much better here and gets the services of Damian Browne.  Other hopes to Architect (1), Secret Harmony (4) and Outback Lightning (3).

Race 2

A big field of 16 maiden runners go around here which should make things interesting.  I would suggest the speed should be solid with those drawn wide not wanting to be stuck out there.  Given the fact that this is a maiden so obviously none have won, I'm looking for value.  I'll be having an each way bet on the former kiwi,  That Snow Athlete (12).  This mare has had ample opportunity in 14 starts to get a win on the board which is a concern.  However she has been close to the mark in most starts.  In her first run in Australia last week, she ran on hard for a very close 2nd.  A wet track won't pose problems and she drops 2kg's on last start.  Other hopes to Southerly (3), Tiger Jet (10) and Beijing Dancer (6).

Race 3

The Stewart Kendrick trained Avaladyluck (10) is a 3 year old in form.  Her 2 starts since resuming have been very good.  She won fresh and then ran on strong to go down by a length to Discreet.  Both runs were on wet tracks so she'll eat up Saturday's surface.  She gets in with a postage stamp weight after the claim for Ant Allen.  With a decent tempo, she'll be hitting the line hard.  Other hopes to Style (11), Carmine King (3) and Face Off (5).

Race 4

Micken (9) is a well travelled horse having come from New Zealand and raced in Victoria and South Australia.  He now finds himself in the Bryan Guy camp on the Gold Coast.  His form down south reads well for a race like this. Two starts back he narrowly lost to Fulgur in an eye catching performance.  He loves a wet track as shown by the fact he's never been out of the placings in 5 starts on heavy going.  Even if the track dries out considerably, I think this guy has a class edge.  Other hopes to Planetarium (5), Viking Heart (10) and How Fairdinkum (2).

**With the scratching of How Fairdinkum, I'll promote Dane Princess (11) to the other hopes**

Race 5

I was on Tax Evader (10) last Saturday in the Glasshouse.  He ran 4th to Someday by 5 lengths but I definitely don't see that as a reason to jump off.  In that run he was hitting the line strongly.  That race was considerably tougher than what he faces here.  For further evidence that this is a good young horse, just take a look at his prior starts where he lost narrowly to Peron and Conservatorium.  He races well at this track and a wet track will not worry him in the slightest.  Draws nicely to take up a good position.  The claim of 2kg for Ashley Butler certainly doesn't hurt.  Other hopes to Loaded (5), Playitstraight (9) and Cash 'N' Style (8).

Race 6

The Queensland Cup over 3200m is sadly not much of a race.  I can't go past the top weight Ibicenco (1).  This horse is screaming out for this distance after taking an age to wind up last start over 2200m in the Tatt's Cup.  Last campaign it won the Sandown Cup over this distance so unlike so many it's rivals, the longer trip will not be a problem.  In fact it will be licking it's lips when the others are looking for a place to lay down.  Other hopes to Turner Bayou (6), Verdant (3) and Dodging Eddie (7). 

**With the scratching of Dodging Eddie, I'll promote Muirfield (4).

Race 7

Doubtfilly (12) has not been able to draw a gate in her past 3 starts.  Barriers 16, 13 and 14 if you don't mind.  Those were in Group and Listed races so in mind they were pretty good runs.  When she drew a gate 4 starts back, she won on heavy going over 1200m beating Someday.  She gets the services of Damian Browne here to take advantage of the premo barrier 2.  Drops back in distance but I don't see that as problem as displaying by her record at the trip.  Other hopes to Griffon (3), Benny's Buttons (6) and Delago Bolt (2). 

Race 8

The final race of the day stinks of the 30th of March this year for Little Long Horn (3).  Let me just reminisce for a second.  It was my little mate Fletcher's 1st birthday party and I'd backed a $26 winner in Such Hope earlier in the day.  It was the final race in Brisbane and I decided to give Little Long Horn some serious stick.  Snorkel Time...he runs on strongly to get up late.  Back to the present and I can see a similar thing happening here.  He drops in weight and gets the run of the race from barrier 2.  He's 2nd up and gets out to a more suitable distance.  He has a good record at the track and a wet surface will not bother him.  Other hopes to Seen (15), My Shabella (4) and Itchintowin (7).


Best Bets

Race 3 - Avaladyluck (10)

Race 5 - Tax Evader (10)

Race 6 - Ibicenco (1)

Race 8 - Little Long Horn (3)