29/06/13 - Sunshine Coast Cup Day

The Silk was back on track last week after the epic failure at Ipswich.  We found 4 winners on the 8 race card at Eagle Farm.  These being Alcancia $2.60, Discreet $2.60, Enquare $3.50 and Fire Up Fifi $4.00.  

We'll be looking to finish the Winter Carnival on a high with the Sunshine Coast Cup meeting.  The track is currently rated a heavy 8 with rain and showers predicted to come.  I'll be working on the track being in the slow/heavy range.  

Like last week, I won't be doing a write up.  Seemed to work fairly well then so let's hope for a repeat dose.  

Race 1 - Flying Home (3), Venture On (1), Cosmonaut (6), Thirsty For Blood (9)

Race 2 - Perfectly Stunning (5), Zamboni (8), Petty Cury (1), Mareeza (12)

Race 3 - Hallside Rose (8), Jet Down On It (5), Choose A Saga (2), Agitate (1)

Race 4 - Cape Kidnappers (2), Kelbenjar (4), Agent Blue (3), Lightfeet Lady (7)

Race 5 - Lennie's Choice (1), Ten Gauge (8), The Conspirator (2), Tom's Luck (5)

Race 6 - Bymonashee (2), Mishani Warrior (4), Sons Of God (1), Mr Orient (9)

Race 7 - Tax Evader (15), Someday (13), Meet George (9), Tokamak (7)

Race 8 - Zennista (4), Shenzhou Steeds (5), High Kin (8), Rothera (2)

Race 9 - Lucky Hussler (5), Casino Card (13), Luke's Luck (1), Buakaw (11)


Best Bets

Race 1 - Flying Home (3)

Race 4 - Cape Kidnappers (2)

Race 5 - Lennie's Choice (1)

  

22/06/13 - Tattersall's Tiara Day

Well last Saturday wasn't the most productive day on the punt.  Actually it was abysmal!  1 win from 9 races and that was a raging hot favourite.  A first 4 and a trifecta were also found which unless you had multiple times like me, then it was hardly worth worrying about.   On a personal note, it wasn't all mud.  Late in the day when the beer and desperation were kicking in, I did get a decent return on Juliet's Princess and Destiny's Kiss.  One thing can be said with confidence, I had a lot of fun getting involved. 

  

Perhaps too much fun.  Unfortunately I managed to lose my phone and gained a nasty cold which refuses to leave me.  Energy levels are not high so I won't be doing a write up.  However I will still include my picks.  


Eagle Farm (Heavy/Slow)

Race 1 - Alcancia (3), Vintage Moss (1), Bribie (2), Miss Orielle (5)

Race 2 - Ametsis (9), Venture On (6), Garozzo (1), Playitstraight (5)

Race 3 - Discreet (2), General Exhibit (1), Little Long Horn (4), Avaladyluck (11)

Race 4 - Enquare (9), Octane Flyer (1), Architect (2), Cannyzing (3)

Race 5 - Fire Up Fifi (3), Conservatorium (1), Someday (14), Diademe (6)

Race 6 - Rothera (2), Verdant (8), Ibicenco (1), Fibrillastion (4)

Race 7 - Streama (1), Skyerush (4), Red Tracer (3), Arctic Flight (10)

Race 8 - Griffon (8), River Lad (3), Skytrain (2), Howmuchdoyouloveme (1)


Best Bets

Race 3 - Discreet (2)

Race 5 - Fire Up Fifi (3)

Race 6 - Rothera (2)


   

15/06/13 - Ipswich Cup Day

Well it's that time of year again when Ipswich comes out in force for the running of the Ipswich Cup.  Like most of the town, I've been going since I was 18 and this looks like one of the tougher cards we've had to deal with.  Still involvement is the key and there's no doubting that I'll be attacking the bookies and the bar in equal measures. 

The track is currently rated a Heavy 10.  It has been drizzling/raining most of the week but it is supposed to start clearing Thursday and be fine through the weekend.  I'll have my fingers crossed that the track will dry out somewhat but I'll be working on the track rating being slow.  If by some miracle it got to dead then I'd be over the moon.

***Track rated a heavy 8 Saturday morning but an upgrade to slow would be on the cards at some point during the day***

Race 1 XXXX Gold Grange Plate 1100m

It's a tough way to start things off with this 1100m race for 2 year olds.  Speed should be solid with a number of horses looking to come across from the outside barriers.  I'm going with the Hawkes trained Dalton (2).  This colt only has the 1 win from 6 starts but it could be argued that he has raced against much stronger opposition than he faces here.  The jockey the day he won was Michael Cahill who incidently gets back in the saddle in this race.  He has drawn the inside gate but with speed on his outside, I can see him taking a midfield position.  From there he will be able to capitalise on the tiring leaders in the straight.  The only hint of him being able to handle a wet track was in a trial win on Tuesday.  As previously mentioned, this is a tough race and I think that his Melbourne form and the 3.3 length 2nd to Magic Millions winner Real Surreal will hold him in good stead here.  Other hopes to Aquator (5), Agitate (1) and Real Favulous (8).


Race 2 Optus Ipswich Mile BM 85 1666m

Although What Happenedhenry (2) has not won beyond 1200m, I believe his best racing is done around this distance range.  Last start he ran 3rd to Planetarium by 1.5 lengths over 1800m.  He ran on well in the straight in what was a harder grade than this.  He has won 2 from 3 at the track which shows he can handle the tight Ipswich circuit.  His wet form is very good with 9 wins or placings from 13 starts on slow or heavy tracks.  The 1666m start is a tricky one here so barriers are crucial.  He's drawn 7 but that shouldn't be a problem and I can see him taking up a position just off the speed, 4 or so horses back.  With the right run, he'll be finishing off better than most of these.  Other hopes to Purfectress (8), Flying Home (9) and Requirement (11).



Race 3 Ray White Dash Class 6 1100m

Cape Kidnappers (6) resumes here after having 14 months off the scene.  That is a slight query but based on his efforts prior to the spell, he'll be very hard to beat.  This guy won 4 from 5 races and ran second in the other.  Being by Commands, he can handle a wet track and this was never more evident than when he won on debut by 7.8 lengths.  He's drawn barrier 9 but he should have the early speed to cross and take up the lead or a handy position.  Making him an even tougher proposition is the fact that he finishes off his races strongly.  He had an exhibition gallop last Friday at the track and I would doubt that trainer Kelly Schweida wouldn't have him ready to go 1st up.  I'll be sweating on the state of the track as Schweida has said he won't run the horse if it's heavy.  Other hopes to Alcania (7), Bymonashee (3) and Nuptse (11).



Race 4 QT Provincial Cup 2150m

I have no doubts that Markout (2) is the best credentialed horse in the race. His form is very good for a race of this standard.  This campaign he has been narrowly beaten by horses such as Volkhere and Awesome Ransom while beating Master Avatar and Mukaddamah Son.  He handles a wet surface well as shown by his 3 placings from 4 on heavy going.  The distance will not be a problem as he has won over 2200m.  My only concern is the gate.  He has drawn 2nd from the outside in a big field.  Offsetting that is jockey Chris Munce.  If he can get the horse into a decent position from out there then he will be awfully hard to hold out in the run home.  Other hopes to Majestic Sound (7), How Fairdinkum (9) and Freton (1).



Race 5 Yalumba BM 75 1350m

This is a very challenging race.  The speed should be solid here with a handful of horses that like to race forward.  Finnigan's Folly (16) is one that will be suited by a nice speed up front.  This filly has been racing in great style since resuming.  In 4 races she's first two times and third in the other two.  She went very close to winning all 4.  She'll handle the distance and conditions well.  We only have to look at her last start for proof of that where she had a tough run but still finished strongly to only go down by 0.4 of a length.  Gets in with 54kg and has the services of Chris Munce.  Other hopes to Mishani Warrior (2), Empress Me (11) and Diet (4).

***With the scratching of Finnigan's Folly, I'll promote Mishani Warrior (2) to my top pick.    In a way that's made things easier for me as it was between it and Finnigan's Folly for top spot.  Empress Me is also out so I'll add Run With Me (6) and Quarterly (15) to the other hopes.  Having said that, the race has fallen away a bit now***


Race 6 Gai Waterhouse Classic 1350m

A lot of people are talking about Peron being a good thing here.  I give it a great chance but it won't be the way I'll be going.  I'll be with the Snowden trained Classics (3).  This Sydneysider resumed 2 weeks ago over 1200m in slow going and ran on well for a length 5th behind stablemate Detours.  Her 2nd up record is very good with 2 wins and 2nd from 4.  Being a Commands mare she gets through a wet track and has won on both a heavy and slow surface.  She won her only start over the distance and has a very good overally record.  Draws the inside alley here and jockey Larry Cassidy will be able to position her beautifully.  Other hopes to Peron (11), Sharnee Rose (4) and City Of Song (7).


Race 7 Ipswich Cup 2150m

This year's edition of the Ipswich Cup has been thrown wide open with the rain through the week.  The Peter Moody trained Voila Ici will be a popular favourite but I just can't come at it with 60kg, a carpark draw and the price.  The speed should be genuine.  Voila Ici will want to lead but getting across from the outside won't be easy.  The likes of Master Avatar, Ginga Dude, Za Magic and possibly Topping will all be working forward and could potentially hold Voila Ici wide.  Because of this I'm going with Secret Garden (12).  This mare is looking for the 2150m now after her last start 4th over 1818m.  She stormed home in the slow going to miss by 2 lengths.  She's drawn badly but she'll get back anyway so that isn't of concern.  It won't matter how wet the track is as she eats it up.  Drops 1.5kg on last start and gets the services of Michael Cahill.  In an open race, I think she offers good value.  Other hopes to Planetarium (14), Voila Ici (1) and Dodging Eddie (19).


Race 8 Eye Liner Stakes 1350m

The flying finish of Dances On Stars (15) last start in the Group 2 Queensland Guineas was eye catching to say the least.  After drawing wide in that race, he raced 3 wide before being 5 wide on the turn.  He then steamed home to go down by just 0.4 of a length to Sizzling.  That was on slow going and with a much better barrier here in the peg, he'll be awfully hard to hold out.  A wet track holds no concerns as shown by the fact he's never been out of the placings in 3 races on the surface.  Other hopes to Conservatorium (1), Morning Captain (5) and Jetset Lad (3).


Race 9 Schweppes T.L. Cooney Handicap 1350m

It's a tough way to end the day but that's no surprise given the competitiveness of all prior races.  There's plenty of value to be had with the favourite currently around the $7 mark.  I'm going with Pretty Gully (7).  This Spinning World filly has shown a liking for wet tracks as demonstrated by her 4.5 length win at the Gold Coast last start.  Prior to that she finished off well to narrowly go down to General Groove who is also engaged here.  She has drawn beautifully in barrier 2 and will be able to get in to a nice, forward position.  That is something many of her more fancied rivals won't be able to do with ease.  After the claim for apprentice Anthony Allen, she will carry just 52kg which could be all the difference on a wet track.  Other hopes to My Shabella (6), General Groove (11) and Hold Me Tight (9).


Best Bets

Race 3 - Cape Kidnappers (6)

Race 6 - Classics (3)

Race 8 - Dances On Stars (15)                               

   

08/06/13 - Stradbroke Handicap Day

The biggest day in Queensland Racing has arrived with the running of the time honoured Stradbroke Handicap.  Can the locals lead by Buffering and Sizzling beat off the interstate raiders such as Your Song and Epaulette?  The high quality action doesn't stop there with the Queensland Derby, J.J Atkins and Brisbane Cup also on the card.  The Eagle Farm track is currently (Friday evening) rated a Dead 4 but there is a chance of showers.  Everyone should cross their fingers that it remains dry!  I have done my form on a dead track rating.  
 

We've had a good run of it lately and we'll be looking for that to continue. Especially with The Silk's grand final, the Ipswich Cup next Saturday!

Race 1 Hampden Stakes (Listed) - Cosmic Endeavour (13) looks the way to go in the opening race.  This Gai Waterhouse trained filly has only had the 1 race start and she won it impressively by 3.3 lengths.  She has Jimmy Cassidy in the saddle to take full advantage of the nice gate.  She'll lead and I doubt they'll be able to run her down.  The only thing holding me back here is the short price on offer.  Other hopes to Missy Longstocking (7), Enquare (11) and Chilwero (5).

Race 2 Strawberry Road Handicap (Listed) - I can't go past Transporter (3) here.  He has been racing in magnificent fashion lately.  He narrowly went down in the Group 2 Hollindale and Group 3 Lord Mayor's Cup in his most recent two races at WFA conditions.  He drops back to listed company here and drops in weight.  He has been in the quinella at the distance 7 out of 8 times and won his only start at this track and distance.  He's drawn barrier 4 so jockey Michael Cahill will be able to position him beautifully in the leading few.  Other hopes to Someday (12), Ibicenco (1) and Diademe (6).

Race 3 Daybreak Lover (Listed) - Academus (1) draws superbly today which is in stark contrast to last start and I can see in form jockey Kerrin McEvoy making the most of it.  He's been racing well since coming to Queensland with a win in the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas and then close finishes in two other Group events.  Last start he finished 4th by 1.9 lengths but didn't have the best of runs.  He drew barrier 10 and raced 3 deep throughout but still managed to finish strongly.  We the inside gate, he'll be able position much closer to the action.  He has form over this distance winning the W.A. Guineas last campaign.  Other hopes to Limes (3), Lucky Hussler (6) and Saint Or Sinner (12).

Race 4 Lightning Handicap (Listed) - I've been really taken by the way Pentasia (6) has been racing recently.  Particularly her start before and after a break.  She won both starts by sitting just off the speed and booting away in the straight.  That style will be suited in this race over 1000m where it would be fair to expect a strong speed.  She's won 8 of her 16 starts, races well 2nd up and likes the sting out.  What's not to like?  Other hopes to Delago Bolt (5), Diamond Earth (13) and River Lad (2).

Race 5 Dane Ripper Stakes (Group 2) - This is a really competitive race made more difficult by the fact that many of the better credentialed horses have drawn wide.  When I say wide, I mean carpark wide.  With that in mind, I've gone with the Peter Moody trained Floria (16) who has drawn the peg.  Jockey Luke Nolen will be able to get this mare into a terrific position with not much effort.  The same cannot be said for those drawn wide.  Her overall record isn't flash with only 3 wins from 25 starts but I'll concentrate on the 2 starts she's had since coming over from NZ and joining Moody's stable.  She ran 2nd in the Group 2 Emancipation 1st up and then ran 4th in the Scone Cup.  Both starts were over 1600m and she hit the line quite well.  She's been freshened up and I think that will do her wonders here.  Other hopes to Arctic Flight (7), Fire Up Fifi (12) and Perfectly Stunning (17).

Race 6 J.J. Atkins (Group 1) - The further the races have been, the better Romantic Touch (7) has raced.  He enters this on the back of 2 outstanding victories where he simply brained the opposition.  The beauty of this guy is that he does it at both ends.  He can set a nice speed early but then still finish off strongly.  Last start over 1550m he led by 4 lengths before increasing that to 7.5 lengths at the winning post.  I think he can get an easy lead here and that will make it very hard for the others to catch him.  Draws nicely for jockey Nash "For Cash" Rawiller to administer these tactics.  Other hopes to Zoustar (1), Paximadia (8) and Vilanova (3).

Race 7 Queensland Derby (Group 1) - There's been a lot of talk about Survived and Gondokoro's chances in this race.  Don't get me wrong, both are right in this but I'm going with Chris Waller's Hawkspur (1).  He enters this race on the back of 2 good wins.  Yes he was given all the favours in those races but he was good enough to accept them and then go on with it.  He again draws beautifully and we'll see Jimmy Cassidy position him in the leading handful of horses before charging to the line.  He's won over 2100m and then 2200m with strong finishes...I don't see the 2400m here a problem.  Other hopes to Gondokoro (18), Ali Vital (14) and Survived (4).

Race 8 Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1) - What a cracking race the Stradbroke is going to be!  I think there's plenty of value to be had here and could be tempted to back a few.  Before I start, it is important to know what the weather is doing when this race is on.  I think Spirit Of Boom has a tremendous chance but if the track's worse than dead then I'll be forgetting him.  I'm putting Belltone (13) on top.  This guy hit the line with gusto last start when winning over 1350m by 1 length.  He has a great record over this distance and has only been out of the placings once in 5 starts at the track at distance.  He can handle any going so if it rains then he won't be concerned by it.  He has drawn nicely in barrier 3 and will get a gun run.  This guy was talked about as a serious Stradbroke chance last year but just failed to get a run.  I think he's going just as well this year and will give a great showing at good odds.  Other hopes to Spirit Of Boom (9), Buffering (1) and Sizzling (18).

Race 9 Brisbane Cup (Group 2) -Quintessential (4) has arrived in Brisbane in super form.  She has won both starts at this track.  Her overall record at Eagle Farm is excellent winning 3 from 5 and placing in the others.  It must be said that both wins were on rain affected tracks but she did quality opposition.  She does have to carry her fair share of weight but class should take her a long way here.  Other hopes to Zennista (11), Precedence (2) and Moriarty (3).


Best Bets

Race 2 - Transporter (3)

Race 4 - Pentasia (6)

Race 7 - Hawkspur (1)