Friday 30 March 2012

31/03/12 - Rosehill Gardens, Moonee Valley and Eagle Farm

Rosehill Gardens

Race 1 - She's A Fox is a worthy favourite here but I've looked for a bit of value and gone with Valerio.  Currently around the $10 mark, I think it's a good e/w bet in a race of many chances.  It's had 2 career starts, winning on debut and running a close 2nd in the Sweet Embrace.  Should get a good run in the leading bunch.  Other hopes to She's A Fox, Cavalry Rose and Ichihara.

Race 2 - All Too Hard has been impressive since coming onto the scene.  It should be winning this but at $1.40, I won't be getting involved. 

Race 3 - I'm going with Anise here.  Has a great 1st up record, winning 1 and running 2nd to Foxwedge on 2 other occasions.  Goes well on a dead/good track and at this track.  Other hopes to African Pulse, Hallowell Belle and Aerobatics.

Race 4 - There's only 7 runners engaged here but it looks like it could be a cracking race.  Back on home soil, I'll be supporting Rain Affair.  Just loves this track and has won 4 out of 5 over this trip.  The odds on offer will be the key to me having a bet here.  

Race 5 - Crafty Irna could run a race here 3rd up. She races particularly well 3rd up from a spell which was evident last campaign when she finished 2nd to Lamasery over 2000m.  Her 2 lead up races have been sound.  Blinkers go on today to really focus her.  Other hopes to Foxstar, Fill The Page and Vintedge.

Race 6 - Speediness draws the car park here but tends to race towards the back of the pack anyway. Often because it misses the kick but hopefully that's not the case here.  Last start he missed the start by roughly 2 lengths which was the margin between it and Pied A Terre.  I think it can turn the tables here. There should be a fair speed set with a number of horses vying for the lead.  That will help.  A dead track would be ideal.  Other hopes to Pied A Terre, Niagara and Star Of Octagonal.

Race 7 - I'm going with Laser Hawk in the Guineas.  Has put together a nice record thus far, winning 3 from 4.  Ran a very good 3rd in the Randwick Guineas last start.  Will race on the speed and will prove very hard to run down.  Other hopes to Silent Achiever, Ocean Park and Proliferate.

Race 8 - Permit made good late ground last start when running 3rd over 2000m.  Gets out to 2400m here which has been a pet distance for him.  He's a winner at this track and over this distance at his only attempt.  Other hopes to Herculian Prince, Precedence and Merchandise.


Race 9 - The consistent Gybe will do me in the last.  This horse is always around the money.  Has won or placed 5 out of 7 over this distance and has never been out of a place at this track over the 1200m.  A dead track would be ideal.  Other hopes to Miss Marx, Ladys Angel and Celts.

***With the scratching of Ladys Angel, I'll promote Curtana to the other hopes***


Moonee Valley


Race 1 - Not a race I'm overly keen on.  Small field over 2000m could toss up an upset.  Placement, Go My Girl and Stole should be the 3 fighting it out.  


Race 2 - Again, not a race I'm getting involved in.  All 6 starters have a realistic chance of winning.


Race 3 - Limited form to have a bet on this 2 year old race.


Race 4 - Last start Draw Forward ran dead last.  That's obviously not the best form guide.  However it was a Group 2.  It's previous form was very good.  It's overall record is 3 wins from 8 and it has won both it's starts at this track and distance.  Should get a good run from the inside.  Other hopes to Her Diamond Rock, Tai Tai Tess.


Race 5 - This is a competitive race with a handful of horses having a realistic shot of winning.  I've gone with Second King.  The horse has a win and a 3rd from 2 races over this distance at this track.  It enters this race in good form, most recently winning the Stony Creek Cup.  Other hopes to Fawkner, Sidecar and Constant Force.


Race 6 - This is a good quality sprint and again, tough to pick a standout.  Halle Rocks didn't really handle the straight last start but was highly impressive before that.  I think she'll hit back here where she has won previously.  Other hopes to Snitzem, Amah Rock and Tres Vite.  


Race 7 - I'm going with Over Quota here.  He has been racing in good form previous to his last start 9th in the Blamey.  He had an outside draw there and finds himself on the peg today.  I think that could make a big difference.  Has won 6 from 17 over this trip.  Other hopes to Snow Cover, Testascana and Mr O'Ceirin.


Race 8 - I thought It's Crunch Time and Freereturn could dictate proceedings here. I've gone with It's Crunch Time as he only has to carry 54kg after the claim as opposed to 59kg for Freereturn. It's Crunch Time is flying at the moment and has won 4 from 7.  Unbeaten at this track.  Other hopes to Freereturn, Zabisco and Magic Weekend.


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - No thanks.


Race 2 - I give winning hopes to Holey Gadoley, Khaantantes, Regrets, Perfect Glory and Wolfsburg.  I can't settle on 1 so I may box them up in 1st 4.  


Race 3 - I'll stick with Dodging Eddie here.  He's awfully close to a win after some narrow defeats.  I doubt many of these will be able to match him over the concluding stages.  Other hopes to Marked, Diago and Billum.

***With the scratching of Marked, I'll promote Onetimeatbandcamp***


Race 4 - The Reveller looks the one here.  Firstly, he gets in with just 51.5kg after the claim.  He goes well here and over this distance.  He showed a brilliant finish last start and with such a low impost, he will be extremely hard to hold out especially with a solid speed set by Tafeer.  Other hopes to God's Window, Symposium and Paris Blu.


Race 5 - I was put off at first by the wide gate for Bingo Rose but after looking through the field, I don't see a great deal of quality.  She races well at this track and will appreciate a firmer surface.  She'll be charging home late.  Other hopes to Beggin, Lucky Songs and Rock Home Late.


Race 6 - Hidden Jewel comes up a clear top rater here.  Looked an impressive type before going for a spell.  It won both it's previous 2 starts at this track and will take a tonne of catching.  Other hopes to Rock Academy, Geological and Jack's Back.


Race 7 - It's hard to ignore Girls Go Racing here.  Brings great Sydney form here and comes off a strong win over 1000m in the Camarena.  With just 52kg after the claim, it will be very hard to beat with a hectic speed up front.  3 wins from 5 over this distance adds to a strong case.  Other hopes to My Cookie Monster, Amber's Crown and G'day Old Mate.


Race 8 - What a mongrel of a race to finish up with.  So many chances.  I'm going with a professional placegetter in Embraer.  Has a good record over this distance and has won it's only go at this track.  Sure he hasn't won a lot (2 from 19) but he's always close at the finish.  Other hopes to Vaarwel, Snippets Secret and Mist In The Morn.  Realistically you could add any number of horses to the hopes.


Best Bets


Rosehill Gardens - Race 5 Number 5 Crafty Irna
                         Race 7 Number 13 Laser Hawk
                        Race 9 Number 6 Gybe 


Moonee Valley - Race 8 Number 9 It's Crunch Time


Eagle Farm - Race 4 Number 10 The Reveller
                  Race 6 Number 6 Hidden Jewel
                  Race 7 Number 4 Girls Go Racing

Friday 23 March 2012

24/03/12 - Rosehill Gardens, Caulfield and Doomben

Rosehill Gardens

Race 1 - I won't be getting involved in this race due to it being a small field of being 2 year olds.  Having said that, Pierro looks the 1 here. Will be too short to back however. 

Race 2 - Choice Words has returned to racing in terrific touch, winning both starts.  Last start she beat Sutton Queen and showed an ability to kick on strongly after leading.  She should be in the leading few horses here and get another good run. A dead track would be ideal.  Other hopes to Pampelonne, Falzzon and Startreusse.

Race 3 - Samaready and Snitzerland are clearly the 2 here for mine.  Samaready won the Blue Diamond with authority and is the Golden Slipper favourite.  Odds are too restrictive to be betting on so maybe a quinella/exacta with Snitzerland could be the go. 

Race 4 - I'm going with track specialist Single.  This horse has won 4 from 5 at the track.  Has won it's past 2 races nicely.  Importantly it beat Maules Creek last start who won the Randwick City Cup last week.  Single just loves a dead track and should get a great run.  Other hopes Vintedge, Brayroan and Fiumicino.

Race 5 - This looks a cracking race.  I'm going with More Joyous.  I looked at horses such as Ilovethiscity, Sincero and Love Conquers All which are paying better.  However I simply couldn't ignore More Joyous' record.  7 wins from 10 starts at the track, 1 from 1 at the track and distance, 4 from 6 1st up and 7 from 10 on dead/slow tracks.  Will more than likely lead and will take a tonne of catching.  Other hopes to Sincero, Ilovethiscity and Albert The Fat. 

Race 6 -  Manighar grabbed the biscuits for us last start when it won the Australian Cup.  It showed a tremendous amount of fight there.  I think it can win this which I can see being another hard fought affair.  Manighar has been in excellent form this campaign, beating Southern Speed and running fairly close to Lucas Cranach.  Loves a dead track.  Other hopes to Scarlett Lady, Southern Speed and Shoot Out.

Race 7 - I backed King's Rose in the Newmarket when it ran 8th.  I think it ran well enough there to run a race here 2nd up.  Her 2nd up record is 2 wins from 3 starts.  Will get a gun run just behind the leaders.  Goes particularly well on a dead track and will be running on strong at the end.  Other hopes to Streama, Red Tracer and Steps In Time.

Race 8 - I like the form around That's The One.  It's won a Group 3 race over 1410m and raced reasonably well against Mosheen.  That type of form should stand it in good stead here.  Can handle any going.  Other hopes to Rekindled Interest, Wild And Proud and Fontelina.


Race 9 - The speed should be well and truly on in the last.  For that reason I'm going with Riva De Lago.  It won't be involved in any speed battle up front.  Instead he'll be smoking his pipe at the back and coming home with a flurry.  Has a good 1st up record and warmed up nicely with a 2nd in a trial to Winter King.  Other hopes to Parables, Karuta Queen and Zaratone.


Caulfield


Race 1 - I'll have a small bet on Dashitude here.  It's a big field of 2 year olds and a lot of them have shown that they like to race on the pace.  Definitely a danger race.  Having said that Dashitude has raced quite well in it's 3 starts, winning 2.  Blinkers go on today which could really sharpen this horse up.  


Race 2 - Assertive Eagle raced well on the speed last start to run 1.2 lengths 2nd to Empress Rock.  Empress Rock won easily at Moonee Valley Friday night, franking the form.  Assertive Eagle should be able to sit in the leading few horses and get a great run.  Gets 3kg off for the apprentice which brings it in well against the other horses.  Other hopes to Sweet Ella, Princess Rock and Secret Liason.


Race 3 - A lot of scratchings in this race which brings the field back to just 7 runners.  Again I'm with the top weight.  Miss Octopussy is a favourite of the Silk and looks incredibly tough to beat here.  Was given 58kg but will race with 55kg after the claim for the apprentice.  Goes exceptionally well over this distance.  Will stalk the leader and be hard to hold out.  Hardest to beat is Bolisimo Miss.


Race 4 - This looks a tricky race.  I've gone with Two Hills based on it's nice run last week.  It ran 3rd but never settled.  The blinkers have been taken off here which will hopefully do the trick. Will get a gun run behind Cute Emily.  Good overall record at this trip.  Other hopes to Cute Emily, Sorrell Miss and Sensational Report.  

***With the scratching of Sorrell Miss, I'll promote Star Of Giselle***


Race 5 - I've supported Pago Rock every start this campaign and he's come close to winning all 3 races.  I'll be on him again here. Has gate 3 here and with 3kg's off for the apprentice, should be able to get the lead.  Has never been out of a place over this trip and will enjoy the going.  Other hopes to Luck San, Agrippa and Shewan.


Race 6 - I'm going with Stratcombe here.  He will lob on the speed and be able to stalk Zedi Knight.  Has a 6kg advantage over that horse and I think that will be telling in the run to the line. Has a great record over this distance and prefers good/dead tracks.  Other hopes to Zedi Knight, Valentine Miss and Full Peal.


Race 7 - I really don't like this race. I'm not sure which horses are going to take the running up here.  For that reason, I won't be having a bet but will go wide in my quaddie.


Race 8 - Again I'm not keen on this race. There should be a fair bit of pressure on up front.  I've settled on Fawkner.  Should be able to push up from the inside and take a position just behind the leaders.  Gets in with 52.5kg after the claim which will be of benefit in it's 1st crack at this distance.  Has a perfect 2 from 2 2nd up record.  Other hopes to Coldens Choice, God Has Spoken and Chasse.


Doomben


Race 1 - I don't like betting on 2 year old races but I couldn't ignore the effort of Fantisha on debut.  The horse won by 6.5 lengths and was easing down on the line.  Other hopes to Wonderful Jester, Gibberer and Midnight Fury.


Race 2 - I will only be having a small bet on Lady Agulhas here.  Won by 4 lengths at Ipswich last start on slow going.  Not many of these have wet track form so I don't think the fact this horse will get back from it's wide gate is a major concern. I can see a number of these really plodding by the 200m mark. It has a good record over this distance.  Other hopes to Crazy Mamma, Beggin and Dane Princess.

***With the scratching of Lady  Agulhas, I'll make Beggin my top pick. Crazy Mamma is also scratched so I'll promote Bitasilk to the other hopes***


Race 3 - Shamardashing didn't have the best of luck last start when narrowly going down.  This horse loves a wet track and gets to go around with 56kg after the claim.  Has a good record at this track and distance.  Other hopes to Winmara, Za Magic and Kevejon.


Race 4 - I like the look of Arctic here.  Went within a whisker of running down What About Me who is engaged here, last start.  Drops 1kg and gets a better gate.  Showed a strong finish when winning on heavy at it's 2nd start. Other hopes to What About Me, Dash O' Vino and Rocksan.


Race 5 - Interview has really hit his straps in his last few races.  His last start win over this distance and on slow going should stand him well here.  Has won 2 from 5 over this distance and 2 from 3 at the track.  Other hopes to Santo De Lago, Tokamak and Garozzo.

***Interview is a late scratching.  I'll promote Garozza to top pick and promote Horoscopes to the other hopes***


Race 6 - Lake George looks like great value around the $10 mark.  If the track is still heavy by this stage of the day, this bloke will be licking his lips.  Has won 2 from 2 on heavy.  He races well fresh and has a fantastic record over this distance.  Other hopes to Mr Armstrong, Triple Honour and Meet George.


Race 7 - Tough race here with a number of chances.  I have settled on De Bois.  Firstly I must say that I'm concerned about it over this distance.  It's had 3 weeks off and generally runs well over 1200m.  It does have a 2nd over 1400m to it's credit.  Will get a great run from gate 3 and gets in with 55kg after the claim.  I think that makes it considerably well waited compared to some others.  Goes well on wet tracks.  Other hopes to Rapid Leica Dane, Starlin and By Choice.

***With the scratching of By Choice, I'll promote Show Me An Ace***


Race 8 - I'll be going the way of Cape Kidnappers in the last.  I was really impressed with this fellow in his 1st campaign where he went undefeated in 3 starts.  He bolted in by 7.8 lengths on a slow track and being a Commands, he should eat the wet track up.  Other hopes to Rosagaze, Inventory and Just Been Lucky.

***With the scratching of Rosagaze, I'll promote Thefifthhole to the other hopes***


Best Bets


Rosehill Gardens - Race 2 Number 12 Choice Words
                        Race 4 Number 6 Single
                        Race 5 Number 14 More Joyous


Caulfield - Race 2 Number 1 Assertive Eagle 
              Race 3 Number 1 Miss Octopussy   
                  Race 6 Number 11 Stratcombe


Doomben - Race 3 Number 2 Shamardashing
                Race 4 Number 6 Arctic
                 

Friday 16 March 2012

17/03/12 - Randwick, Eagle Farm and Bendigo

Randwick

Race 1 - Brightest has been one we've been following lately and I think she gets the chance to repay our faith here.  This looks a moderate bunch and this horse has been racing in harder races than this.  Will be suited by a decent tempo to run on late.  Goes well at this track.  Other hopes to Cabernet, Sydney's Destiny and Dancing Attendance.

Race 2 - I expect Raceway to win this but I won't be taking the short odds.  It only narrowly beat Shelford last start but should get a good run here behind the speed despite the wide gate.  Shelford hardest to beat.

Race 3 - No confidence in this race so I'll sit this 1 out.  I see the main players as Jade Marauder, Agueda, Flying Snitzel and Valerio.

Race 4 - Herculian Prince has to lump 59kg here when most of it's rivals are around the 54kg mark.  However it's 2 starts back from a spell have been in Group 1 and 2 company where it has carried a similar weight and been very competitive.  You would think that type of form would make it too strong here.  Has a good overall record and has won 2 from 4 at this distance.  Other hopes to Platamone Castle, Maules Creek and Merlin Mustang.

Race 5 - I was initially concerned that 58.5kg was a bit much for Nobby Snip to carry.  Especially when Group winners and placegetters are getting similar weights.  However the horse looks a nice type and has won with big weights before.  It's won 4 from 6 career starts and looked very impressive winning 1st up.  Has a perfect 2nd up record to go with it's perfect record over this distance.  Should get a nice run from the 2 gate.  Other hopes to Niagara, Charm's Honour and War Charm.

Race 6 - It's hard to go past Mosheen here.  Her effort in the Australian Guineas was outstanding and I just can't ignore that.  Has a great record over this distance and on dead/good tracks.  Other hopes to Manawanui, Doctor Doom and Strike The Stars.

Race 7 - Alberton Park has been racing really well since joining the O'Shea stable.  The horse enjoys a dead track and has a consistent record over this trip. Lost narrowly to Dystopia last start when finishing strongly.  Meets Dystopia 4kg better here.  Looks to be enough speed on here to enable Alby to be charging home.  Other hopes to Curtana, Dystopia and Gybe.

Race 8 - I'll be looking the way of Forfeiture in the last.  Looked good resuming where she won with a bit in hand.  Goes well on a dead surface and won her only previous 2nd up start.  Ran a close up 2nd to Single last campaign.  Other hopes to Velrosso, Revolt and Knot Out.

Eagle Farm

Race 1 - No thank you!

Race 2 - Extend lunch a bit longer. No thanks.

Race 3 - They're not giving us much to work with here!  I'll have a small wager on Winmara.  I would have put Marked on top but I think the track will be too damp for it.  Winmara on the otherhand enjoys it.  It has been racing quite well lately.  Gets 3kg off for young Vance.  Other hopes to Marked, Break The Ice and Attica.

Race 4 - The Silk has been given strict instructions to put Dodging Eddie on top here.  Last 2 starts where he ran 2nd and 3rd by small margins were very good.  He ran on in those suggesting the 1800m is ideal now.  Drops to 54kg and Munce stays onboard.  Weighted to win!  Other hopes to Emoticon, Bang On and Diago.

***With the scratching of Bang On, I'll promote Confident to the other hopes***

Race 5 - This is a tricky affair with such a big field.  I give at least a handful a winning chance.  I've gone with Trump.  Is the class runner in the field.  Has 58kg to contend with but Heathcote has thrown Hurdle the apprentice onboard to take off 3kg.  The horse has a good 1st up record winning it's 1st start in each of it's last 2 campaigns.  Loves this track and distance.  Will need a bit of luck from the wide gate but should be running on strong.  Other hopes to Another Superior, Gatineau River and Flying Jet.

***With the scratching of Trump, I'll make Another Superior my top pick and promote Faultless Dancer to the other hopes***

Race 6 - I'm going with Border Rebel here.  It's raced in group races and gets in with 57.5kg after the claim for Allen.  Will get a lovely run from the peg.  This horse has an unbelievable 1st up record winning 5 from 7.  Loves this distance and loves the sting out of the track.  Other hopes to Funtantes, Carry To Fortune and Haizum.

Race 7 - It's hard to go past Win A Million.  It simply looks the best in the race.  Has solid form over this distance and really went well when she won last start.  Loves this track and distance.  Other hopes to Tokamak, Trombone Alley and Starlin.

***With the scratching of Starlin, I'll promote Machination to the other hopes***

Race 8 - I don't think Oak Street will get caught wide today.  He's drawn wide but I think he has enough in the tank to cross across and lead or box seat.  Looked a really nice type in it's first campaign where he won all 4 starts.  Other hopes to De Bois, Gunner Knox and Altai Warrior.

***With the scratching of De Bois, I'll promote Requested to the other hopes***

Bendigo

Race 1 - A field of 6 2 year olds...no thanks.


Race 2 - I've going with Tykook here.  Has raced in some reasonable races and has been thereabouts.  Has placed or won in 5 races from 8 at this distance.  Could get a sneaky lead here and go on with it.  Other hopes to Incredulous, Red Rain and City Of Song.


Race 3 - I'm going to back Hurdy Gurdy Man.  He's had 2 runs back after a year off the scene.  I don't think there's a lot in this race so this guy could be ready to run a race 3rd up.  Has show a liking for dead/slow ground in his brief career.  He has seen strong support since odds went up.  Other hopes Miss Phromily, Verification and Set The Course.


Race 4 - American Crew gets in here with just 51.5kg after the claimer takes 3.  With most of these carrying 57 or more, that will be a massive advantage.  The horse will lob in front or sit in the leading few.  Won 1st up last campaign and loves this distance.  Other hopes to Faster Son, Typeface and Sertorius.


Race 5 - I won't be getting too involved here but I do think Rowland is worth a couple of bucks.  Has to carry 60kg but has the master D.Oliver to make life a bit easier for him.  Has some solid form around Drunken Sailor and Hanks.  Has a good record at this distance.  Other hopes to Jelly Baby, Robrick and Golden Calibre.


Race 6 - Princess Narine looks well placed here.  Would really love a good track but can handle dead.  Gets just 54.5kg here after racing well against the likes of Speediness and Hi Belle.  Reckon that could be telling against these.  Other hopes to Sparks Alight, Two Hills and Ky's The Limit.


Race 7 - Testascana looks well positioned here for a win.  Had a rubbish gate last time but here he gets the inside.  He'll make full use of that and get himself into a prominent position.  Has a super record over this distance, winning 3 from 4.  Goes best on a dead to slow track which he gets here.  Other hopes to Folding Gear, Happy Trails and Veewap.

***With the scratching of Veewap, I'll promote Eraset to the other hopes***


Race 8 - I'm going with Canonized here.  Has a great record at this track and distance.  Has been racing ok in his past few.  Has been freshened up and blinkers go on for the 1st time.  Will get a good run from the gate. Looks primed.  Other hopes to So Swift, Shanghai Warrior and Sparks Burn.


Race 9 - Tough way to finish the card.  After having over 2 years out of racing, British General has come back in flying form.  It's won it's 2 starts well.  Has an outside gate but should be able to push across early to take up a prominent position.  Will enjoy the sting out of the track.  Other hopes to Spartini, Hotham Heights and That's Not It.


Best Bets


Randwick - Race 1 Number 12 Brightest
                Race 4 Number 3 Herculian Prince
                Race 6 Number 17 Mosheen


Eagle Farm - Race 7 Number 1 Win A Million


Bendigo - Race 4 Number 7 American Crew
              Race 6 Number 3 Princess Narine
              Race 7 Number 4 Testascana

Friday 9 March 2012

10/03/12 - Flemington, Warwick Farm and Doomben

Flemington

Race 1 - I won't be getting overly involved in the opening event.  Depending on the odds available, I might have a small bet on Armed For Action.  This horse ran 3rd in the Blue Diamond after running on the speed.  Has a wide gate here but Craig Williams is on board and he can nullify this.  Other hopes to Snitzerland, Mrs Gray and Nicskioffski. 

Race 2 - I'm going with Glows here.  It has a great record over the 1200m.  From 4 attempts it's won 2 and run 2nd in the other 2.  Track conditions should be ideal and it will be racing on the speed.  Has form around Soft Sand.  Last start winner.  Other hopes to Halle Rocks, Sharnee Rose and Satin Shoes.

***With the scratching of Satin Shoes, I'll promote American Dream to the other hopes***

Race 3 - I'm going to buy into the hype surrounding All Too Hard until he proves otherwise.  Yes, this is Black Caviar's half brother so we'll more than likely be getting unders.  However he did win fairly well on debut.  Dwayne Dunn has elected to ride this horse over Mama's Choice which is a strong recommendation.  Other hopes to Pronto Pronto, Jimando and Shamexpress.

Race 4 - I really like the look of Speediness here.  It has been racing in super nick since coming back, winning both it's starts.  In it's last 3rd up run it won.  Has a top record over this distance and on good to dead tracks.  Will be tough to hold out.  Other hopes to Snow Cover, Wall Street and Pied A Terre.

Race 5 - I think the best 2 horses in this race are Shopaholic and Soft Sand and they should be fighting this out.  I'm throwing my support behind Soft Sand.  Last start it ran 1 length to Shopaholic when forced to race outside the lead from the wide gate.  In this race, I think she'll get a much better run just behind the speed. Other hopes to Shopaholic, Total Attraction and Angel Of Mercy.

Race 6 - I can't wait for this race!  So many classy horses engaged here.  The default selection would be Hay List as it's the only horse ever to test Black Caviar.  It could very well win and that wouldn't surprise but I won't be on it.  I'll probably be on my own here but I have a vibe King's Rose can do something fresh here.  I reckons it's worth an e/w ticket at around the $20 mark.  1 negative is that it doesn't have a strong record over 1200m.  Countering that is that it is very strong over 1400-1600m.  Has a great 1st up record and loves a good to dead track.  With a solid speed on, I think it will be 1 horse that will be strong at the finish.  Other hopes to Hay List, Bel Sprinter and Rain Affair.

***With the scratching of Bel Sprinter, I'll promote Buffering to the other hopes***

Race 7 - I think Manighar has been super in his 2 starts back this time around.  Won 1st up convincingly and then ran under 2 lengths to Lucas Cranach last start.  Should be cherry ripe for a win here.  Other hopes to Americain, Southern Speed and Illo.

Race 8 - I'm going with Hi Belle in this.  She has been unsuccessful at Flemington in the past but does have a fantastic record over this distance.  She has 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 cracks at 1600m.  Her form in group company since coming back from a spell has been great.  Other hopes to Spirit Song, Cute Emily and Lady Lynette.

Race 9 - I like the look of Pago Rock in the last.  This horse got the biscuits for us 2 starts back and came agonisingly close last start when it when down narrowly to Speediness.  Has a good record at this distance and loves a good to dead track  Will be prominent in running.  Other hopes to I'm Discreet, Eraset and Blackie.

***With the scratching of Blackie, I'll promote Smokin' Joey to the other hopes***


Warwick Farm


Race 1 - I will have a very small bet on Kristy Lee here.  Ran a close up 2nd on debut on a slow track after running 4 wide.  The Pumper should be able to get the horse in a better position from the 4 alley.


Race 2 - This looks a suitable race for Merchandise.  Gets to suitable distance here 3rd up.  Has won 2 from 2 3rd up.  Has shown an ability to handle a wet track. Won here on a heavy previously.  Other hopes to Palasport and Frozen Rope.


Race 3 - Gybe has the widest gate here but I think Robl can get the horse across to a decent position.  It has a lot in it's favour.  It hasn't missed a place 1st up or on a heavy track.  Warmed up for this with a 2 length trial behind Beaded.  Other hopes to Celts, Title and La Remlap.

***With the scratching of Gybe, I'll promote Celts to top pick and add Potions to the other hopes***


Race 4 - It's hard to go past Streama based on past achievements.  Narrowly went down 1st up.  Has a good 2nd up record and can handle the wet.  Has shown a real liking for this track in the past.  Other hopes to Hallowell Belle, Sea Siren and Detours.

***Detours is scratched.  I won't be replacing it in the other hopes***


Race 5 - I'm finding it very hard to split stablemates Brayroan and Said Com.  I've gone with Brayroan as it offers a bit better value around the $6 mark.  It's unbeaten in it's 3 starts over this distance.  Goes extremely well 3rd up.  Other hopes to Said Com, Second Draw and Agent Bauer.

***Said Com is scratched.  I won't add anything to the other hopes but I will make Brayroan best bet*** 


Race 6 - I'm putting Pinker Pinker on top here.  I said last start that we'd want to be on her next start because her perfect 2nd up record.  Has shown an ability to handle an heavy track with a win and 3rd from 2 starts on it.  Other hopes to Shoot Out, Sacred Choice and Danleigh.


Race 7 - I'm a little concerned that Neeson has to carry 58.5kg on a heavy track but it has shown an ability to lump big weights in the past.  The horse goes sensationally 2nd up.  From 5 attempts it's won 3 and placed the others.  Loves this distance and goes really well in the wet.  Other hopes to Somepin Anypin, Triple Elegance and Ofcourseican.

***Triple Elegance has been scratched.  I won't be adding anything to the other hopes***


Race 8 - I've gone Secret Admirer in the last.  I was concerned that she may get too far back which usually isn't an advantage at this track.  However there should be a fair pace set which will help her chances.  Also she has finished 2nd here twice.  Goes well 2nd up and has handled heavy in the past.  Other hopes to Alberton Park, Lady Angel and Steps In Time.

***With the scratching of Alberton Park, I'll add Cabernet to the other hopes***



Doomben


Race 1 - I'm putting this race in the too hard basket.  


Race 2 - This looks an ideal race for Shamardashing.  Gets out to an ideal distance.  Goes well in the wet and at this track.  Really should just have too much for these. 


Race 3 - There's not enough wet track form from these 2 year olds for me to entertain having a bet here.  


Race 4 - I think we have another good thing here in Mystical Grey.  Went close to winning 1st up and has a great 2nd up record.  Will get through the going and has a good record at this distance.  Should have too much on these.  


Race 5 - I've gone with the top weight here What About Me.  I won't lie, 59kg is a massive concern.  However he did win on heavy with 58kg by 5 lengths.  Admittedly that was a class 1.  Winning form is good form and this bloke has put together 4 on the trot.  Gets a nice run from the inside.  Other hopes to Defenceman, Artic and That's Karma.  


Race 6 - Warrior Girl gets track conditions to suit here.  Her record on a dead or slow track is streets better than on a dry track.  My big concern with this race is that a number of horses I consider chances haven't shown form over this short trip.  Warrior Girl has a couple of wins to her credit over this distance.  I won't be getting carried away here but she's in with a show.  Other hopes to Ten Seconds, The Ringmaster and Lucky Deluchi.

***With the scratching of Warrior Girl, I'll promote The Ringmaster to top pick and bring in Cyclone Brad to the other hopes***


Race 7 - This race puts the fear of God into me.  Nothing is jumping out and saying, "I'm going to run a race."  The big problem I'm seeing is that horses that can run the trip, can't handle a damp track and horses that can handle the going, have poor records over this distance range.  By rights, Geblitzt should make this race hers but she's just not racing well enough.  I'm going to have a small wager on Bingo Rose.  Has an imposing record at this distance winning 3 from 4.  It's stats for rain affected going is fairly average but then so are a lot of these.  Other hopes...the field.


Race 8 - The speed up front should be solid and for that reason I'm going with a horse that will be coming from the back.  That horse is Around The World. Is undefeated in 3 attempts at this distance and just loves the track.  It also enjoys the company of Nori Yamada who has guided this mare to 4 wins from 5 rides.  I think it's great value around the $9 mark.  Other hopes to The Reveller, Sinister Prince and Theft.


Best Bets


Flemington - Race 4 Number 13 Speediness
                  Race 8 Number 3 Hi Belle
                  Race 9 Number 11 Pago Rock


Warwick Farm - Race 4 Number 2 Streama
                        Race 5 Number 7 Brayroan
                      Race 6 Number 8 Pinker Pinker
                      Race 8 Number 1 Secret Admirer


Doomben - Race 2 Number 2 Shamardashing
               Race 4 Number 2 Mystical Grey

Friday 2 March 2012

03/03/12 - Flemington, Eagle Farm and Rosehill Gardens

Flemington

Race 1 - Small bet here only.  I'm going with Sabie.  McEvoy should be able to place the horse in a prominent position.  Has won or placed every start which has been over this distance.  Other hopes to Rhandara, Imprimis and Fire Thunderbolt.

***With the scratching of Sabie, I'll promote Rhandara to top pick and bring in Lady Of Harrods as a hope***

Race 2 - Western Jewel with a better gate can turn the tables on Drunken Sailor.  Last start WJ was caught wide but still ran on.  Has good form in Perth.  Other hopes to Drunken Sailor, Persian Star and Cheviot Beach.

Race 3 - Miss Octopussy has excellent 2nd up form, winning 3 and placing 2 from 5 attempts.  I think she's the way to go here.  Has shown a liking to straight racing.  Blinkers on should sharpen her up.  Other hopes to Lady Antebellum, Bolisimo Miss and Irish Dream.

***With the scratching of Irish Dream, I'll promote Beldara to the other hopes***

Race 4 - I'll be backing Vivid Vixen here.  Has a great record over this distance and at this track.  Won 3rd up last campaign and trainer said that it really needed the run 2nd up.  Likes the sting out of the track.  Other hopes to Under The Hat, Chasse and Sidecar.

Race 5 - Going with Red Colossus in this open affair.  Has a good 1st up record winning 2 and placing in 2 from 5 1st up runs.  Last campaign he ran a close up 3rd to King's Rose over this distance and with 59kg so 58.5kg here doesn't concern me.  Will handle the sting out.  Other hopes to Testascana, Shadowfax and Happy Trails.

Race 6 - This looks a fantastic race on paper.  I'm thinking that the pace could be on and for that reason I'm going with a horse I have a high opinion of in Proliferate.  He has looked good in all his runs to date, particularly his 1st up run last start behind Pied Tierre.  He should be steaming home and could just get over the top of these.  Other hopes to Helmet, Mosheen and That's The One.

Race 7 - I'm not overly keen on this race so I'll be approaching it with caution.  I went with Happy Angel.  It has a great record down the straight and has looked impressive in it's past 2 in SA for Kavanagh.  Should be able to sit 2nd or 3rd in running so will get the run of the race.  Other hopes to Queen Delight, Secret Flyer and Eight Bills.

Race 8 - The in form runner Golden Penny will do me in the last.  She has been racing in great form this campaign, winning 3 from 4.  Has won at this track and distance in the past and gets Oliver with 54kg here.  Will be hard to hold out.  Other hopes to I'm Discreet, Booklet and Raspberries.

Eagle Farm

Race 1 - This looks like headache material to me.  I won't be getting involved but I would think that whatever wins will be coming from the back.  

Race 2 - Generally I hate these races.  However I think Marked looks a good thing here.  The horse showed us what he is really capable of last start when he won well.  He should get suitable pace here to do the same again to this lot.  Other hopes to Attica, Our Recidivist and Rhetoric.

***With the scratchings of Our Recidivist and Rhetoric, I'll promote Sir Stanley and Tycoon's Heart to the other hopes***

Race 3 - Many of us have been waiting for the day that Beggin to draw a gate.  Today's that day.  She's been racing so wide in her latest runs but still looking good finishing off.  The majority of these horses are average so today's Beggin's chance.  Other hopes to Dodging Eddie, Bang On and Kiss Me Deadly.

Race 4 - Let's be thankful that this isn't a leg of the quaddie!  It's a race of many chances.  I'm going with Another Superior.  Has a good record over this distance and particularly at this track. Looked good storming home from last to finish 3rd 1st up.  Ran 2nd in it's only 2nd up effort.  Should get a good run from barrier 3.  Other hopes to Gatineau River, Run With Me and Kilwinning Option.

Race 5 - It was hard to ignore the 1st up run of Mr Armstrong when he absolutely put the sword to most of these.  Has a great record over this trip and has an ok 2nd up record.  You would have to think he'll be hard to beat if he has come on.  Other hopes to The Sixties, She's A Rock Star and Cariad.

Race 6 - Going with the top weight here in Bold Glance.  Has to carry a massive weight but comes in with 58kg with the claimer.  This is obviously the class horse in the race with a 3rd in the Doncaster to it's name.  Goes well fresh and over this distance.  Other hopes to Haizum, Falvelina and Just Been Lucky.

Race 7 - I can see at least half a dozen of these vying for the early lead which suggests a backmarker will be running on to win.  The ideal candidate with that scenario in mind is The Reveller.  Last start it got well back before charging to the line with gusto.  A repeat of that performance will see it winning.  Other hopes to De Bois, Mr Slick and Theft.

***With the scratchings of The Reveller and Theft, I'll promote De Bois to top pick and bring in Felony Flight to the other hopes***

Race 8 - Mystical Grey will be all the fitter 2nd up after running on well 1st up to nearly score the win.  The step up to 1600m will suit.  Has a great 2nd up record winning 3 from 6.  Other hopes to Tomboy, Star Of Octagonal and Shamardashing.  

Race 9 - Whisperossa looks nicely placed to pull off a northern raid here.  Has a perfect 2 from 2 2nd up record and has also won both it's attempts over this distance.  Munce should be able to give it a lovely ride.  Other hopes to Purettan, Product and Win A Million.

Rosehill Gardens

I won't be getting involved in many races at Rosehill.  It's just too iffy for my liking with the bog track.  That's if the meeting even goes ahead.  I have include 2 in my Best Bets section I will have a go at.  

Best Bets 

Flemington - Race 3 Number 3 Miss Octopussy
                 Race 4 Number 4 Vivid Vixen
                 Race 8 Number 7 Golden Penny

Eagle Farm - Race 2 Number 3 Marked
                   Race 5 Number 2 Mr Armstrong
                   Race 9 Number 12 Whisperossa

Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 Number 1 Manawanui
                         Race 7 Number 4 Red Tracer