24/09/11 - Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben Selections

G'day punters.  Things haven't been fantastic lately for The Silk.  Sure, winners have been found but the level of consistency has been poor.  I put that down information overload.  So from this edition of The Silk, I'll be taking it back to when picking winners seemed an easier task and keeping it simple.  

Saturday sees racing coming from Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben.  The highlight of the day will be the Group 1 Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield.  Track conditions will be good for Rosehill and Doomben.  While Caulfield will be no worse than dead.  Right let's get into it!  Good luck.

Caulfield

Race 1 - I'll be going with Lady Mahler in a competitive first race.  Barrier 9 isn't ideal but I think it can get across to sit in behind the leaders. Her last start 2nd in a good race in Sydney bodes her well for this.  Other hopes to Neriani, Limerock and Miss Elvee.

Race 2 - Atlantic Jewel was highly impressive last start.  I can't see a reason not to stick with her.  Sure she has to carry 58kg but I think this is a classy animal and will be able to carry the weight.  I think she'll relish the 1400m.  Other hopes to Kneeling, Sharnee Rose and Crucial.

Race 3 - Going to take a punt on Carnero being able to hang on for a win here.  It's never won beyond 1600m so the 1700m could be on it's limit.  However it may be able to get a cushy lead which will enhance it's chances.  It's form has been very good lately and in it's losses, it's been no more than 2 lengths off the winner.  Other hopes to Extra Zero, Cabeza and Mighty High.

Race 4 - I don't mind the look of Shewan in this race. The 2000m looks ideal.  The horse is rarely out of the placings and should get a nice run.  Should be cherry ripe in it's 3rd run back from a spell.  Other hopes to Lopov, Anudjawun and Ishant.


Race 5 - The Caulfield Guineas is an interesting race.  The big question for me is how good is That's The One?  I'm thinking he's very good but how does he match up with Helmet.  I'll be with him.  He's got the runs on the board and was unlucky last start.  Weight shouldn't be a problem as he ran fairly close to Smart Missile carrying 59kg.  Hoping class prevails.  Other hopes to That's The One, Chase The Rainbow and Specter.


Race 6 - The Rupert Clarke Stakes sees a big field go around over 1400m.  There looks to be good speed on this race so I've looked for something that will be running on.  It was a close call but I settled on Smart Missile.  Just think with the light weight, he'll be too hard to hold out.  He'll be pushed by Woorim.  Other hopes to obviously Woorim, Blackie and Testascana.


Race 7 - Going with Schrapnel here.  Is 3 from 3 2nd up, has 3 wins from 4 over the distance and likes a firmer surface.  It has a lot in it's favour.  Other hopes to First Command, Phelan Ready and Irish Dream.


Race 8 - Midnight Martini gets a more suitable distance here and I think will be hard to hold out. Last start she was 3.8 lengths off King's Rose and was quite unlucky in the run.  Should be able to get to a handy spot from the peg or even lead.  Other hopes to Little Tycoon, Stole and Zauberin.

***With the scratchings of Little Tycoon and Zauberin, I'll promote Sister Norma and Model To  Nite ***
Rosehill


Race 1 - A very even affair to kick things off.  Should get a good price on whatever you back.  Going to have a small bet on Kim Divine.  I think it's getting out to a suitable distance here and will like the firm surface.  In a race of many chances, I thought it was worth a go. Other hopes to Russian Jar, Old Bill and Tamanu Park.


Race 2 - Manawanui.  Enough said.


Race 3 - Not overly keen on this race.  It's pot luck guessing which of these will handle the 1900m better than rest.  I won't be betting but if pushed to pick one then I'd go Morocco.


Race 4 - I'm going to take a chance on one here at odds in Rose Pattern.  I'm putting a lot of faith in the fact that David Hayes has brought this horse up from Victoria to run here after only the 1 start.  It looked like it would be suited by the step up in distance.  Other hopes to Ingham Magic, Shadow West and Disputes.


Race 5 - The problems Somepin Anypin encountered last start are well known.  I think he can hit back hard here.  Looks to have a class edge over the rest.  Other hopes to Indiscretions, Renewed Vitality and Exploitable Doubt.


Race 6 - Secret Admirer looks really tough to beat here.  Has come back in terrific nick and looks wound up for this.  Beat More Strawberries before a spell over 1600m so 1500m looks idea now.  Other hopes to Fast Clip, Torio's Quest and Offenders.


Race 7 - I have Lamasery as a clear top rater here.  It was hard not to be impressed with his win last start in the Kingston Town.  The big if here is whether he can handle the 2400m and handle it with 57kg.  I'm prepared to say he can.  Other hopes to Adroitly, Raeburn and Ironstein.


Race 8 - The final race of the day looks a battle between the race fit and the resuming.  I'll be going with 1 that has race fitness on it's side albeit the 1 run.  That's Ofcourseican.  It has a great 2nd up record and also a liking for the track and distance.  It will be coming home like a freight train and I think will be able to get over the top of these. Other hopes to Phenomenal Lass, Gybe and Shannara.


Doomben


Race 1 - We have a clear top rater here in a small field.  Pretty Pins was highly impressive in it's debut, winning by 3.3 lengths.  I expect her to be winning again.  Other hopes to Morning Captain and Kahui.


Race 2 - I found this to be a tricky race to work out.  A number of horses will be vying for the lead which could set it up for a closer.  Having said that I think Alespirit may be able to slot in behind the pace and get a cart into it.  It's 1st up record, liking for the track and distance and a small weight will all be in it's favour.  Other hopes to Amber's Crown, Carry To Fortune and Lifebuoy.


Race 3 - Shock, horror.  The quaddie killer Bootooloo comes up as favourite here in early markets. Surely that's enough pressure on this guy to bring him undone.  Unfortunately there isn't much in this race and he has a great chance.  I'm going to give Haslington a chance at double figure odds.  From the pole, Taylor will be able to give him the gun run.  Dropping back in distance is a plus.  Should be in the finish. Other hopes to Bootooloo, Miss Cutie and Fleet Riane.


Race 4 - I don't think the 3.5kg weight swing will be enough for Elusive Port to turn the tables on Racing Heart.  The way it finished off last time suggests that the further distance will only help and will make it even harder to hold out.  Other hopes to They Won't Last, Elusive Port and Topping.


Race 5 - This is a race I'm not overly excited about.  I think the form behind Danagaze and Shamardashing puts Sam's Town right in this.  Byrne should be able to get this bloke in a nice spot for a strong run home.  Not confident but I think it's the best here.  Other hopes to Eastline, Flying Touchdown and Loves A Challenge.


Race 6 - Very keen on Risk Aversion.  This is an impressive individual and the way it ripped off that finishing burst last start to win was nothing short of mind blowing.  It's a clear top rater for me.  My advice would be to get on early to get a decent price.  Other hopes to Funtantes, Paris Blu and Win A Million.


Race 7 - I'm really not sure about this race.  I can't settle on a clear cut winner so I'll just list a few for the multiples in no particular order.  Silvern, Cat Eyes, What Happenedhenry and Machination.  Fairly confident the winner will come from those 4 but settling on 1 is a different story.


Race 8 - Looks a nice race for Faster Son.  He's the quality in this race and gets in with 54kg after the claim.  Has a great 1st up record and warmed up for this with a trial win.  Loves the track and distance.  Should be able to camp just off the speed.  It goes in.  Other hopes to Redessi, Alberton Park and The Barracks.  


Best Bets


Caulfield - Race 2 Number 3 Atlantic Jewel
               Race 4 Number 9 Shewan
              Race 8 Number 8 Midnight Martini


Rosehil - Race 5 Number 5 Somepin Anypin
            Race 6 Number 3 Secret Admirer
            Race 7 Number 1 Lamasery


Doomben - Race 1 Number 5 Pretty Pins
               Race 6 Number 5 Risk Aversion
               Race 8 Number 1 Faster Son

17/09/11 - Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben Selections

After dabbling in the Newcastle Carnival this week, The Silk will return to the more familiar surrounds of Saturday racing.  We have a few Group 1 races to whet our appetites.  These being the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield and the George Main Stakes at Rosehill.  Supporting those is a number of Group 2 and 3 races.  You can smell that Spring's in the air!  Selections have been based on good tracks for all 3 meetings.  With the rail out 10 metres at Caulfield there is a potential bias to on-pacers and inside draws.  Good luck!

 

*** Caulfield has been downgraded overnight after watering to a dead 4 surface.  This won't change any of the selections.***

Caulfield

Race 1 - It's a fairly even field of 3 year olds to kick things off here.  I'm going with the Hawkes trained runner in Eastward.  It has drawn the peg and will likely go forward from there.  It won it's 1st start by 4.5 lengths and although the opposition is questionable, braining your rivals by that distance is a decent effort in your 1st race.  Other hopes to Platelet, Oamaru Rose and Hot Shoe Shuffln.

Race 2 - Keep coming back to Balavan here.  The race looks nicely set up for it.  From the 5 gate, Boss should be able to get him easily to the lead.  Last start he lead them up and booted clear to account for a couple of handy ones in Gybe and Stratford by 2.5 lengths.  Other hopes to Acorn, Facile Tigre and Panipique.

Race 3 - I won't be getting too involved in this race.  Seems like a dangerous race to me where anything could win.  Having said that I would put Costly Commitment on top.  I feel he can be placed quite handy, well a lot closer than normal, from the pegs.  It's last start suggested it is looking for further and 1700m should suit at this stage.  Other hopes to Pump It, Salter and Apollo Creed.

Race 4 - Zaira should set the pace here from the inside.  Zubbaya isn't ideally drawn in 10 but I think she can push across early and take up a nice position.  Her return to racing saw her win under 59kg by 1.8 lengths in a nice effort.  Dropping to 54kg is a big help.  In her previous campaign she beat Absolutely by 3.8 lengths over 1600m.  I think she is right in this.  Other hopes to Heidilicous, Simply Put and I'm Discreet. 

Race 5 - Quite keen on Testa My Patience.  This fellow has built up an impressive record thus far, only being out of the placings once from 11 starts.  Perfect 2nd up record, loves the track and distance and more importantly had a highly impressive 1st up win.  It rattled off a very fast last 600m that many would find hard to top. From gate 5, he should be placed quite handy and be able to rip off another big finish.  Other hopes to Rightfully Yours, Berringama and Pinnacles. 

Race 6 - We have a very good lineup of 3 year old fillies here in the 1000 Guineas Prelude.  How they'll end up after the gates open is anyone's guess.  It looks like Kneeling may cross from the outside but that might be difficult with so many pushing forward from the inside.  I think Celebrity Girl and Hallowell Belle will be fighting this out.  Separating the two over 1400m has been a tough task.  Eventually I have settled on Celebrity Girl.  She looked most impressive in both her wins and I don't think the distance will hinder her.  Has the little gentleman Michael Rodd to ensure she gets a great run.  The thing that swayed me to her over Hallowell Belle was the fact that I think the excellent 1 length 2nd to Sepoy may have taken it out of her and Luke Nolan isn't riding her.  Other hopes to Mosheen and Kneeling.

***With the scratching of Kneeling I'll promote Metonymy to the hopes***
Race 7 - The Group 1 Underwood Stakes.  Well, well, well, what do we have 'ere then?  Looks like Lights Of Heaven raising it's head after stinging many a punter last time it ran.  I think it will run well but I have Glass Harmonium on top.  It's 1st up run in the Makybe was excellent and should be further improved for this.  It should be able to get to the lead and hold on for a win.  Other hopes to Light Of Heaven, Heart Of Dreams, Lion Tamer and Playing God.  


Race 8 - From recent runs, December Draw will again be really tough to beat here.  He beat Green Moon by 3.5 lengths last start and that horse came out and ran a bottler of race to win the Newcastle Cup just days ago.  December Draw should get itself into a handy position and be too strong for these.  Be careful not to take a ridiculously short price.  Other hopes to At First Sight, I'm Jake and Lucky Eighty Eight.


Race 9 - Nice race to finish the day with a number of chances.  I have settled on Miss Octapussy.  I think she can camp just off the speed and get a good run into the race.  Her previous 1st up runs have been good and she also has a liking for the track and distance.  Other hopes to Anabaa's Legacy, Sister Madly, Lone Rock and Valentine Miss.    


Rosehill


Race 1 - The speed will be on in the first over 1100m.  Like Nobby Snip here.  Think he can jump out and take the lead or be very handy.  He warmed up for this with a top trial, running a close 2nd to More Joyous.  His 3 race starts have been full of merit and I think this is a horse heading places.  Other hopes to Karuta Queen, Startreusse and Al's Magic Miss.

***With the scratching of Startreusse, I'll promote Hollyweird into the hopes***
Race 2 - I'm a big fan of Thankgodyou'rehere.  However I don't think he'll get enough pace in this race to unleash a big finish.  By that stage, the horse may have bolted.  In this case that horse will be Startsmeup.  I think Startsmeup gets a nice sit on the pace.  With 53kg, he'll be hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Thankgodyou'rehere, Miss Keepsake and Tom's Rocket.


Race 3 - Funny Feeling Friday here.  I keep coming back to Sangster.  I can see this fellow sitting just off the leader here.  My concern is that it might be a sitting duck in the closing stages.  However it's a Savabeel so it's bred to handle the distance.  It's last start 2nd in the Ming Dynasty was a good effort and the form out of that race has been franked this week's Group 3 Spring Stakes.  Other hopes to Cocky Raider, Strike The Stars and Denwood.


Race 4 - This race looks like it's perfectly set up for Tullamore.  It's the only horse that will take it forward and I have a feeling that it will get away with deadset murder in front.  Rawiller will ride it a treat and give the rest little chance.  Other hopes to Trusting and Hawk Island.


Race 5 - The George Main Stakes.  I'll be with the superstar Sincero.  This guy is having his 1st crack at weight for age and has to carry 58kg.  That won't be a problem as he's a proven carrier of big weights.  The trainer declared that the horse doesn't need to come from the back and will be more than capable of being handy.  I just don't think the rest of these can match his sprint to the line.  Other hopes to Ilovethiscity, Sacred Choice and Black Piranha.


Race 6 - The majority of these raced each other in the Furious last start.  In that race, Florentina and Streama were allowed to dictate terms in front and duly saluted.  They could get the same scenario here.  Surely the others have seen the error of their ways and won't allow that to happen again.  With that in mind, I'm going with Shared Reflections.  Waterhouse always has her 1st uppers in tip top shape so you know this girl will be right for the 1500m.  This horse was fairly impressive in it's initial campaign and I'm hoping it has come along during the spell.  Other hopes to Pane In The Glass, Streama and Dowager Queen.  


Race 7 - Silk followers landed a nice bet last time Decision Time raced.  The horse is a professional.  He's a horse going places and I don't see any reason to jump ship.  Having said that, I'll also be having a sneaky bet on Albert The Fat.  This bloke has gone from strength to strength with Waller and by all accounts is primed for a first up showing.  It would be rude not to support the Ipswich connections of The Fat!  Other hopes to Love Conquers All and Winter King.


Race 8 - A good betting race to finish the card.  There's a number of chances here.  I can see a reasonable pace being set which would help those coming from the back.  Having said that, I'm going with the likely leader in Samui Lad.  This horse has a good 1st up record and has been primed for this with a head 2nd to More Joyous in a trial.  I get the feeling Waterhouse has set him for this.  He has won over 1400m so I think he'll have enough in the tank to hold these off.   Other hopes to Dailika, Hood and Upon. 


Doomben


Race 1 - God's Window will try to lead from start to finish.  If given an easy time then he will do it.  However when he was pressured and not allowed to lead easily, he wilted in the straight.  I think that's what is going to happen here.  The horse to do that is Heart To Fear as he did last time they met.  Heart To Fear has a great record over this trip.  Byrne adds confidence in the saddle.  Other hopes to God's Window, G'day Old Mate and Seventh Heart.

***With the scratching of G'day Old Mate, I'll promote Prost to the hopes***
Race 2 - I was filthy on myself last time Trump raced as she he was my initial top pick.  I talked myself out of him being able to run the 1500m. What a fool I was!  He did it well.  Steps up to 1615m this time and rises 1.5kg.  Don't think that will be enough to stop him.  It should be a Heathcote quinella with Bevico Girl.  She's been closing the gap on Trump lately but may just come up short again.  Other hopes to Atlantis Gem and Lady Racer.


Race 3 - This is a tricky race to get a hold on.  The main sticking point for me is whether River Lad can hold off Carry Me Bluey, Narcelo and Benefaction.  I think these 4 horses will be fighting out the finish.  Probably the best option is to box these 4 up in a trifecta but we need something on top so I'll go with River Lad.  He's pushed Belltone and did enough last start to suggest he'll be right in it to post.    


Race 4 - The popular belief is that this race is between Fantastic Blue and Secrets Untold.  I'm with Fantastic Blue.  Finished off the race well last start when beating Secrets Untold by 2 lengths.  With the claim for Hellyer, he still will carry less weight than his rival.  Looks in ripping form.  


Race 5 - Here we see the Ipswich cult hero Dodging Eddie having a go at Saturday company.  Watching it's past few runs, I thought it was crying out for a longer trip.  Personally I think it wants even further than the 2020m.  It just keeps coming.  With the claim it will carry a low weight which will help it come home.  I can see this race being a bit of a slugfest to the finish and Ippy boys are known for that!  This is a very hard race to pick and at the end of the day the local lad will do me.  Other hopes, good question! Daad's Overtime, Billum, Scarlett Jo and Clangor.      
***Clangor has been scratched. There will be no replacement hope***

Race 6 - Going with Gunner Knox here.  Goes up 4kg on his last start 2nd but has proven that he can carry weight in the past.  Has been a model of consistency this time in and I don't see that changing.  It's past 2 starts place it very well in this race.  Other hopes to Lapel, Rundle, Il Cardinale and Freton.


Race 7 - Being a 1010m race, it goes without saying that there is some speedy types in this.  I think that will set it up for something coming from behind.  For that reason I'm going with Found The One.  In it's 1st start in QLD, she bolted in by 6 lengths.  Although only a mid-week race, you have to respect a horse that can gap it's rivals by that far.  Byrne offsets barrier 13.  Other hopes to Silver Scholar, Lone Assassin and Street Stall.


Race 8 - A similar race to end the day as last week.  Should be a fair speed set which will help those coming home late.  A number of chances are engaged.  I've always been a Captain Clayton fan and I'll be sticking with him here.  This is well short of his favoured distance but he'll be rattling home late.  He has a great 1st up record and trialed well leading into this.  Other hopes to Joint Chiefs, Carry The Clubs and Monashee Dancer.  


Best Bets


Caulfield - Race 2 Number 4 Balavan 
              Race 5 Number 10 Testa My Patience 
              Race 8 Number 9 December Draw


Rosehill - Race 1 Number 3 Nobby Snip
             Race 4 Number 5 Tullamore
             Race 5 Number 5 Sincero


Doomben - Race 4 Number 1 Fantastic Blue
               Race 6 Number 4 Gunner Knox
               Race 7 Number 13 Found The One

15/09/11 - Newcastle Cup Day Selections

Cameron Handicap Day produced a couple of winners for Silk followers.  Two of the three best bets in Raspberries ($8.50 Top Fluc) and Morocca ($2.50) saluted.  Our 3rd best bet Rekindled Alliance came agonisingly close with a 0.3 length second.  In four of the other races, one of the "other chances" won.  

We move onto the next day of the Newcastle carnival which is Newcastle Cup Day.  There is a slight chance of a morning shower but the track should remain good.  Worst case scenario would be a little sting out of it.  Enough jibber jabber, let's get into it!  

Race 1 - I think Irish Times picks itself here.  First thing you notice is that this fellow has raced some decent horses in it's 6 starts.  Check it out, 3.5 lengths to Foxwedge, 2.5 lengths to Uate, 5.6 lengths to Manawanui and most recently 3.1 lengths to Ambidexter.  With 56kg I think it comes in very well considering it has been racing in group and listed races.  There seems to be a few horses who will want to lead which will suit Irish Times just off the pace.  The only downside is the price which I doubt will be too tempting.  Other hopes to Traffic, Second Draw and Margene.

Race 2 - Here we have a maiden race where there's very little race experience so tread carefully. If pushed to pick one of these on top, I'd lean to Niagara.  It ran reasonably well behind Manawanui in it's 1st start and was close up behind Detours in it's 2nd start.  Has the winning combination of Waterhouse and Munce.  Other hopes to Mental, Herculean and Millenium Ruler.  Again I must stress, be very careful betting here!

Race 3 - Another maiden and limited form to go off.  However in this maiden there is one that jumps off the page.  That's the Snowden trained Disputes.  Class wise, this horse is head and shoulders above the rest.  It's ran in some quality races against quality opposition such as Hallowell Belle, Satin Shoes, Helmet and Pane In The Glass.  In the majority of those races, it's been very close.  Barrier 16 is a bit of a worry but you'd think she'll be far too good with only 54kg.  Hopefully the bad gate gives us a price we can get on at.  Other slim hopes to Nocturnelle, Eyes On Guard and Princess Cassie.

Race 4 - Going with Angelican here.  Has the Bart Cummings polish and will be ridden by Hughie Bowman.  I think it's looking for the 1600m now and although it's past few races don't look too good at a glance, they weren't totally without merit.  Last start it ran 11th but was only 4 lengths off the winner which ran a class record.  A class higher than this.  Other hopes to Straight Hennessy, Deemed and Many Stars.

 

*** Update due to scratching of Angelican.  I'll promote Straight Hennessy to the top pick and include Lil And Grace to the other hopes. ***

Race 5 - Thought Youthful King looked well placed here.  With the claim he will race with 51kg.  In the scheme of things, that's a significant over the likes of Youthful Jack and Ollie Vollie.  This horse has a great record over the 1200m with 5 wins and 3 minors.  Also runs well at the track.  I get the feeling that it's building for a win after going down by close margins in it's last 3 runs.  Other hopes to Youthful Jack, Midnight At Ascot and War Empress.

Race 6 - After much deliberation I decided to go with the in form horse Sweetest Melody.  She's built a cracking record of 7 wins from 11 races and comes into this race following a 1 length win over Red Tracer.  Winning form is good form especially when it's a mare.  Munce should be able to position her well from gate 5 somewhere near the front.  Other hopes to Foxstar, More Strawberries and Aspinal.

Race 7 - The Newcastle Cup.  My first thought was that Essence of Success might be able to lead here, set the pace and go on with it.  However I don't think that will be the case.  It has to come from barrrier 14.  Last start it fudged the start and wasn't able to do that from the 9 gate. I'm not saying it can't do it but I think it will have it's work cut out.  With the long home straight in mind, I went with The Verminator.  This guy has been a model of consistency over this type of distance and comes into this race with a 2.5 length win over a lot of his rivals here in the Wyong Cup.  Other hopes to Essence of Success, Green Moon and Tanamu Park.

Race 8 - I'm not overly keen on this race.  I'm going with Oakfield Comet.  It's won 4 from 7 and goes well at Newcastle.  It's undefeated over the 1200m at this track.  It has the Pumper Jim Cassidy on board and should be reasonably wound up for a 1st up tilt after a number trials.  Other hopes to Dance Man, Malambo and Inherited.  

Best Bets

Race 1 Number 2 Irish Times

Race 3 Number 10 Disputes

Race 5 Number 5 Youthful King

14/09/11 - Newcastle Selections

I rarely have a bet midweek but since it's Cameron Handicap day at Newcastle tomorrow, I thought I would have a look at the day's racing.  The track is rated as a dead 5 but a sunny day is expected so it may improve.  Good Luck!

Newcastle

Race 1 - Although only 7 runners in the opening event, I think it's a tricky affair.  I wouldn't be getting carried away here.  I narrowed it down to Bare Bear, Memorable Moment, Magic Spur and Pennyforyathoughts.  I have settled on Magic Spur.  I think it can sit just off the speed and kick home.  It won it's 1st race start and then fudged the start and lost a plate in it's 2nd which I'm willing to forgive.  

Race 2 - Doesn't appear to be a lot of speed in this race. I would suggest Little Miss Rose will take up the running.  I'm going with Gossips.  She is down in class and has been fairly consistent placing 5 times out of her 8 starts.  There is a complete lack of results from many of the others.  She also goes well at the track and distance.  Other hopes to Little Miss Rose, Chula Vista and Rock Air. 

Race 3 - I don't like getting involved in maiden races.  Especially when there is a lack of experience.  Having said that, I don't mind the look of Net Worth here.  He's had 2 race starts for a 2nd and a 4th.  In his last race he ran 4.8 lengths to Manawanui and we saw on the weekend how talented it is.  Hughie Bowman to ride is a bonus.  Other hopes to Cradle Me, Danger Lurks and Jester's Girl.

***With the scratching of Cradle Me, I have put Lolavie in as another hope. ***

Race 4 - Another maiden.  Looks to be a fairly open affair.  I'm going with an Anthony Cummings horse in Morocco.  It's had just the 2 race starts and ran on well in both to only go down by short margins.  I think in it's third race start that it will be cherry ripe.  It's down in weight and has Glyn Schofield on top.  All positives.  Other hopes to Bold Sari, Klaatu (if gets a start) and La Parisienne.  

Race 5 - The Hurricane Stakes.  An apt name for a race over 900m where there will be a charge of the light brigade.  Several horses like to lead which could set it up for something just off the pace.  That is Motspur's hope if that happens.  Motspur is the class runner in the race and has to carry a whopping 62kg which is 9kg more than his rivals.  It think it will bring him undone.  I'll be with Platinum Choice.  Many of these horses have been racing each other recently and have been close in each race.  Platinum Choice has a significant weight advantage over those horses.  From barrier 6, Reith should be able to stick him either in the lead or handy.  Other hopes to Dragon's Keep, Motspur and Master Gaze.

Race 6 - The Spring Stakes.  This isn't a bad group of 3 year olds assembled here over 1600m.  Just The Tonic will take up the lead.  It was hard to ignore the finish of Rekindled Alliance last start when it ran a short neck to Just The Tonic over 1400m.  The extra 200m here will suit and I can see this fellow running over the top of them.  Other hopes to Just The Tonic, Darci Be Good and Ambidexter.

Race 7 - The Cameron Handicap.  Another good field here with a number of chances.  I can see a fairly solid pace developing with the likes of Neeson and Reuben Percival jockeying for the lead.  With that in mind, I'm going with Raspberries.  Kerrin McEvoy will be able to get her in a handy position from barrier 2.  Last start she unleashed a top finish to come over Altius and Lamasery.  Lamasery was impressive on Saturday.  On the minimum weight, I think Raspberries is a special!  Other hopes to Ginga Dude, Neeson and Izababe.

Race 8 - The final race on the card is over 2300m and it's one that I'm not overly keen about.  My confidence levels in the majority of this field running the trip out is low.  I'll go for one at a bit of value in Rodeo Playboy.  It has Hugh Bowman riding and has been running over 2000m consistently throughout it's career with reasonable success.  I think when the field starts tiring, this bloke will be running on.  Other hopes to Pippendell, Wonderworld and Carbon Art.

Best Bets

Race 7 Number 8 Raspberries

Race 6 Number 4 Rekindled Alliance

Race 4 Number 8 Morocco

The Wash Up - 10/09/11

Yesterday The Silk's top rated selections found 6 winners and 5 placings.  Of the 6 winners, 4 came from the Doomben card.  Once again we were close to the mark with all bar 6 winners from the races analysed being mentioned in the top 4 picks.  The highlight of the day was definitely the win of Buffering who paid $9.70 for the win.  Some punters were lucky enought to get double figure odds thanks to their love for The Buff and getting in early. This was closely followed by the win of Haizum which paid $7.30.  Other winners for the day were Topping $4.20, State Of Wealth $2.20, Funtantes $4.90 and King's Rose $2.70.  So although the winners weren't big in quantity, the returns were quite good.

The Silk's selections also found the Brisbane Quadrella which paid $543 on Tattsbet and the Moonee Valley quadrella which paid $1231. 

Exotic Bets found from The Silk's top 4 selections:

Moonee Valley - Race 3 Trifecta $89.90

                       Race 7 Trifecta $116.10

Rosehill - Race 5 Trifecta $35.30

             Race 5 First 4 $57.20

Doomben - Race 7 Trifecta $83.00

               Race 8 Trifecta $359.10

               Race 8 First 4 - $2978.40

On the whole, I'd say it was a reasonably successful day.  It was pleasing that 2 of our best bets got up particularly Buffering.  Special thanks must be given to The Buff for providing followers with a juicy return.  Hope you all loaded up on the great Queenslander! 

   

10/09/11 - Moonee Valley, Rosehill and Doomben

G'day Punters.  Things are starting to heat up in the racing world with more feature races this Saturday.  Racing will be coming to you from Moonee Valley, Rosehill and Doomben.  The highlights for the day include the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, W.H. Stocks Stakes and McEwen Stakes from the Valley.  At Rosehill the Golden Rose, Theo Marks Stakes and Kingston Town Stakes will take centre stage.  I have based my selections on the proviso that the track conditions will be dead with a possibility of worsening at Moonee Valley, dead with a possibility of worsening at Rosehill and a slow possibly heavy track at Doomben.  Best of luck!

*** Track conditions Saturday morning have started out as dead for all 3 tracks. I catered for a damper track at Doomben but I always have in the back of my mind the chance for up or downgrades so I don't think the original selections need to be changed.  As it turns out, the selections can all handle most goings well. *** 

Moonee Valley

Race 1 - It's a tricky race to start proceedings.  Thought there were a number of winning chances.  I ended up falling into Emerald Downs.  I think she'll get herself into a good position just off the speed.  Should be all the fitter for her 1st up win and can handle any track conditions.  Next best: Bliss Street, Triple Asset and Atlantic Jewel.

Race 2 - Not sure that there's a great deal of quality horses here.  For that reason I'm going with Do You Think.  I was a little concerned at first that it had 57kg but it has heavy weight jockey specialist Steven Arnold on top and he's combining with old mate Bart Cummings.  His 1st up run was sound and I think he'll be further improved for the 1400m.  Other hopes to The New Boy, Costly Commitment and Cute Emily.

Race 3 - I found it very hard to separate Swooper and Tanby.  I ended up going for Swooper as I think that she may handle the going a little better if it gets damp.  She also loves the track having won 4 times from 6 starts.  Thought her last run after a freshen up was a good warm up for this.  Prior form is good for this.  Other hopes to Tanby, Dance With Her and Buzzwin.

Race 4 - I could be crazy but I'm going with an old favourite in Rue Maple.  She's been up for a long time which is a concern but they have given her a freshen up which I'm hoping will have done the trick.  She loves the track and distance and can handle all going.  I think Michelle Payne will get her in a good spot just off the pace and have her ready to pounce.  Other hopes to Miss Bindi, Mythical Spirit and Status Symbol.

Race 5 - Don't see a lot of speed in this race and for that reason I'm going with Valley specialist Philda.  The 1600m and 57.5kg are a concern but I think he can get a soft run in front and can control proceedings.  That's the plan anyway.  Any sting out of the ground will only enhance his chances.  Other chances to Lucky Eighty Eight, Larry's Never Late and Akzar.

Race 6 - The McEwen Stakes sees a number of top sprinters going around.  I'm going with a Silk favourite in Buffering.  D. Browne should be able to get The Buff to the front and run these ragged.  His 1st up record is a perfect 3 from 3 and can handle a soft track.  Loving the double figure odds on offer at the moment! Next best includes Crystal Lily, Happy Zero and Kulgrinda. 

Race 7 - The Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes sees Whobegotyou trying to win the race for the third time.  I think he can.  Won 1st up in solid form and just loves this track and distance.  At wfa conditions, he really should be too good.  The price may be the only thing preventing a bet on this bloke.  To fill the minors, I give chances to Red Colossus, Rekindled Interest and Alcopop.

Race 8 - Very keen on King's Rose here.  Thought her 1st Aussie run in the Memsie was super impressive.  Has a lot in it's favour including a liking for the distance and the sting out of the track.  Assuming Nolen can have her handy enough, she should be running over the top of these.  Next best include Pinker Pinker, Absolutely and Midnight Martini.

Race 9 - Tough race to end the day.  Going to go for one down in the weights, Spirited Eagle.  Only has 53kg to contend with, likes the track and distance, soft conditions and has 2 wins from 3 1st up runs.  I think it's as good a chance as any.  Other hopes to Woorim, Stanzout and Miss Gai Flyer.

Rosehill

Race 1 - Think Startreusse will be too strong here.  Has 58kg but deserves it considering how impressive he has been in his 2 starts to date.  Probably looking at a wet track and he'll have no problems with that.  Other hopes to Tavarnelle, Combat Kitty and Ingham Magic.


Race 2 - Not too sure there's much quality in this race.  For that reason, I'm going with the lightly raced Marden.  It ran on well first up over 1550m so I'm thinking that the extra 350m should suit.  Handled the going well and has Hughie Bowman aboard.  Give chances to Thumbtacks, Dal Rommel and Shadowofexcellence.


Race 3 - This race has a number of chances.  I backed Spot The Rock last start and I'll be sticking with him again.  I think 2nd up he'll be a lot fitter and meets the winner 2kg better.  He is group 2 placed around this distance and I can't see a wet track hindering him.  He'll face stiff opposition from Renewed Vitality, State Grade and Future Solution.


Race 4 - Going with Ofcourseican here.  A little concerned with how it will go on a wet track but it has run ok on slow/heavy before and recently trialed for a 2nd on heavy.  It loves the track and should go well.  Other hopes to Gybe, Graceful Anna and Solar Charged.


Race 5 - A small field goes around in the Golden Rose but it isn't short on talent.  Prepared to stick with Smart Missile.  He finished off last time quiet well which suggests to me that the extra 200m shouldn't be a concern.  Boss rates him a superstar and he's proven to be a good judge.  How he handles a wet track is debatable but I'm prepared to say he will based on his 3 wins on dead surfaces.  If Helmet can get a cushy lead then he may be tough to beat.  Other hopes to Manawanui and Foxwedge.  


Race 6 - I think Pinwheel can win here despite the big weight.  The horse is basically bullet proof and has only ever been out of the placings 3 times in 24 starts.  Proved last start that it could win on a heavy track with a big weight.  Other chances to Ilovethiscity, Pressday and Foreteller.


Race 7 - Sticking with Altius.  The horse is out to a distance now that it's bred to run.  Handles a wet track and down in weight only adds to the attraction.  I've been with it all campaign and I don't see a reason to get off now.  I give hopes to Lamasery, Mourayen and Break Card.


Race 8 - Can see Tiger Tees setting a good pace here.  If it's a leader biased track by the end of the day then he could go on with it.  Having said that, I'm going with Stratford.  I've been with him in his last 3 starts.  With a wet track on the cards, I think this bloke will handle it well. Loves the track and distance.  Other hopes to Somepin Anypin, Tiger Tees and Quidnuc.


Doomben


Race 1 - By rights, Russian Jar should have a class edge on these.  However with the persistent rain, it brings it back to the field as I don't believe it likes the wet.  Going to go with Topping.  Small bet if any.  Just think that he can get through the ground and possibly may be able to set the tempo.  Rubbish race so I won't give any other hopes.


Race 2 - Hard to get excited about a field of 6 runners.  Belltone has been kind to the Silk supporters lately but at $1.60, I won't be encouraging involvement.  If you were after something with a bit more value, I'd be looking at What Happenedhenry.  Perhaps the best advice is to watch the race or restock the fridge.


Race 3 - Going to stick with The Barracks after it's last run.  Being a Commands, he should handle the wet track well and ran 2nd on his only slow track start.  Gets a weight pull on Sway To Go and that might be the difference.  Hopes to Sway To Go, Purettan and Touch It.


Race 4 - I wonder if a wet track has ruined a pretty good race here.  Going with State Of Wealth but I won't be keen on taking short odds which is likely to be the case.  Last start on slow going it won by 4 lengths.  I give chances to Florida Fellow, Calculation and Lucky Tycoon.


Race 5 - Although stepping up in weight and distance, I think Shamardashing continues it's winning way.  Finished hard to win it's last start so you'd think it would be able to handle the extra 200m.  Undefeated on heavy also.  Main challengers are Our Cannavaro, Sunshine Angel and Sir Presidente.


Race 6 - Symposium is the class runner here.  However it's colours are lowered for me with a wet track.  Being a Clang, I'd suspect it won't go too badly in the wet but 57kg could be costly.  I'm going for something with next to no weight in Aquatorial.  It's run 2 places in it's 2 go's on slow and with Benny Looker's claim will only carry 51kg.  Looks like the 1350m should suit.  Other chances to Symposium, Show A Lion Heart and Paris Blu.    


Race 7 - Tafeer got the biscuits for us last time it raced but it was able to lead easily.  Don't think that will be the case here.  With that in mind I think Funtantes could get a good run.  It goes like a cracker first up and has trained well during the week.  Fairly confident it can handle the going and will be primed for another 1st up win.  Chances to Alberton Park, Just Been Lucky and Aladah.


Race 8 - Speed kills you maniacs!  Some speed freaks involved here but which ones can handle the wet?  Haizum has the perfect wet track record so it goes on top for me.  It has good 2nd up form and likes the track and distance.  With plenty of speed on, it should be able to finish off strong.  I give hopes to Monashee Dancer, Nickiera, Multire Music, Seek And Find and Pointe Dancer.  


Best Bets


I think today's racing is going to be pretty tough going so finding "good things" will be hard.  


Moonee Valley - Race 6 Number 3 Buffering
                      Race 7 Number 1 Whobegotyou
                      Race 8 Number 9 King's Rose


Rosehill - Race 1 Number 1 Startreusse
             Race 6 Number 1 Pinwheel
             Race 7 Number 11 Altius
             Race 8 Number 7 Stratford


Doomben - Race 5 Number 1 Shamardashing
               

The Wash Up - 03/09/11

Last Saturday was very frustrating.  A miserable 4 winners came from the top selections.  These being Tom's Rocket, Decision Time, Sepoy and December Draw.  That's a disgraceful effort.  The frustrating part is that 11 other top selections ran places.  To rub salt into the wound, a friend of mine only backed my selections for a place and made a profit.  That's faith for you! 

Ok so the top selections didn't do well at all.  Fortunately a number of exotic bets were found.  The highlight of these was the Eagle Farm Quadrella which paid $1574.80 on Tattsbet.  Other notable exotic bets that were found included:

Flemington Race 3 trifecta 

Warwick Farm Race 8 First 4 and trifecta

Eagle Farm Race 3 trifecta

Eagle Farm Race 4 trifecta

Eagle Farm Race 6 trifecta

Eagle Farm Race 7 trifecta

So the day wasn't a total bust and depending on how you bet, it could have been quite successful.  Surely the ridiculous amount of placings means that the Silk is getting closer to a bumper day where the placings turn into wins!

03/09/11 - Flemington, Randwick and Eagle Farm Selections

G'day punters.  It's that time of the week again that we all look forward to.  This Saturday sees the running of the Makybe Diva Stakes, Danehill Stakes and Let's Elope Stakes at Flemington and the Chelmsford Stakes and Furious Stakes at Warwick Farm.  Hopefully we see some quality racing.  Selections have been based on dead to good tracks at Flemington and Warwick Farm and a slow to dead track at Eagle Farm.  Good luck!

Flemington

Race 1 - Tricky race to kick things off.  I've gone with Ervbefel.  It's run in some better quality races than this one in it's 4 race start career.  It ran on well behind Satin Shoes 1st up and hasn't had much luck when travelling in it's other starts.  I think it can be coming over the top of these at the finish.  Other hopes: Star Salute, Celebrity Girl and Secret Status.

Race 2 - I'll be assuming that That's The One is a quality racehorse and backing him here.  He's undefeated in his first 2 race starts and has been quite impressive.  With a few question marks over some of the others in regards to running a solid 1400m, my money will be going this guy's way.  The drop in weight is a bonus.  Other chances to Jessica Rose, Running Tall and Dontmentionthewar.

Race 3 - I'm quite keen on Utah Saints here.  Sing it with me Yeah Yeah Yeah Yeah Utah Saints, Yeah Yeah Yeah Yeah Utah Saints.  No? That's ok but hopefully we'll be breaking into that when this fellow wins.  From barrier 5, he'll get the run of the race.  He ran quite well behind Bel Sprinter 1st up and can only be improved from that run.  His runs last campaign were also top shelf and with 53.5kg will be hard to toss.  Chances to State Grade (if starts), Niblick, Bullbars and Dreamaway.

Race 4 - Won't waste much time here.  Sepoy should prove again what a class act he is.  $1.20 makes him an untouchable bet so watch and enjoy.  Minor placings filled by Mosheen and Hallowell Belle. 

Race 5 - The Let's Elope Stakes looks like a great race on paper.  There's at least a handful of chances.  I was impressed with the 1st up run of Parables and that's where I'll be going.  It was very stiff not to win 1st up when beaten narrowly by Mid Summer Music.  Parables will be fitter and has a top 2nd up record.  Distance not a problem.  Biancon Rose is a horse I rate highly and it wouldn't surprise me if she won.  Besides Biancon Rose and Mid Summer Music, I give chances to Keep The Peace and Pinker Pinker.

Race 6 - The Makybe Diva Stakes.  Lights Of Heaven looks very hard to beat here.  She was a little bit stiff losing narrowly to Whobegotyou 1st up.  I'll be honest, I think she's a future star.  However unless her odds get out from the current $1.70 on offer, I won't be putting my money on her.  Otherwise she ticks all the boxes.  I think she will face opposition from Playing God, Glass Harmonium and Prince Obama.

Race 7 - Top field assembled here but I'm sticking with a favourite of ours, Bel Sprinter. This fellow has done nothing wrong in his 4 race starts and seems to step up each time he goes out.  He couldn't have been more impressive winning by 3 lengths last start.  Chances to Response, Dubleanny, Temple Of Boom and Elusive Touch.  I think they might be racing for second.

Race 8 - I'm prepared to say that December Draw is a horse to follow in the coming months.  If he is then he should be winning this race.  His 1st up run was good where he went down by a bee's to Valley specialist Philda.  I think we saw enough when he was last in work to say that the step up to 2000m is ideal.  Other hopes include Lakedro, White Universe and My Scotsgrey.

Warwick Farm

Race 1 - I'll be supporting the in form mare Sienna Red.  She's won her last two starts and in her latest she beat her rival here Miskish by a length.  Miskish has the weight advantage here but I don't think that combined with it's gate will be enough to turn the tables.  Sienna Red likes the distance.  Other hopes to Thumbtacks and Letchworth.


Race 2 - This is an open race with a mixed bunch.  I won't be getting too involved here, if at all.  If pushed to select one, I'd be with Tom's Rocket.  Has a good record over the distance and can handle any ground.  Most horses have a legimate chance of winning.


Race 3 - I think Oakfield Beauty looks to have a class edge over the rest of these and looks to be tremendous value around the $7 mark.  She has to carry 58kg but I don't think that's too bad considering the opposition.  Her 1st up record is a concern and ideally you want to be on her next start but I think she'll be forward enough from a good trial to win recently.  Chances to She's A Rock Star, Moama and Indiscretions.  


Race 4 - Quite keen on the chances of the top weight here, Decision Time.  This bloke has an impressive record of 7 wins from 12 starts and has been group 1 competitive.  He apparently has trialed well leading into this and if he's right, could have way too much class for these.  Hopes to Winter King, Obsequious and Zaratone. 


Race 5 - The Furious Stakes is a good race and you should get value whatever you back.  I'm going with the bullet proof Pane In The Glass.  You know you're going to get value for money with this filly and what really swings me to her is the fact she is proven over 1400m and beyond.  Some of these I have my doubts about in that regard.  A little concerned about the foreign jockey on board but the word is that he's tip top.  I give chances to Florentina, Anise and Elite Falls.


Race 6 - The Chelmsford Stakes.  I'm going to go with My Kingdom Of Fife based on the excellent efforts it put in last campaign.  Waller's had more time to work this guy out since then and I think this is a winnable race first up.  Remember his first run in Australia over 1600m when he won at $151?  I think Sacred Choice, Startsmeup and Maluckyday can run well.


Race 7 - It took some time to pick between Darci Be Good and Cocky Raider.  In the end I went with Cocky Raider.  It meets Darci 3 kg's better than when they met last time.  It's first up record is good and it warmed up for this with a 4th to Foxwedge in a trial.  I think if it's forward enough then it could win this.  Chances to Fontelina and Sangster.


Race 8 - A competitive race to finish the Sydney card.  We see the return of Stradbroke winner Sincero.  He's a classy animal but I'm going for another Stradbroke runner in Thankgodyou'rehere.  It's 1st up run wasn't too bad after overcoming some difficulties.  His 2nd up record is good and loves the distance.  He has a fair weight swing on Sincero and hopefully is a fitter.  Chances to Sincero, Secret Admirer and Neeson.


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - It's pretty hard to get enthusiastic about the first race.  Unless you're desperate to bet then I'd take a bit longer on lunch.  If pushed to pick then I'd go Silvern.  


Race 2 - Risk Aversion will be very hard to toss here but I'm going for a 1st up runner for Heathcote in Redessi.   This former kiwi was competitive in races in NZ that I would argue are of a better quality than this.  His 1st up record is good and he was primed for this with an impressive bit of track work.  Other chances to Heart To Fear and Seventh Heart.


Race 3 - Pretty keen on the chances of Eastline here.  This bloke has been knocking on the door and gets pretty much everything in his favour.  Distance, track condition, weight drop and good jock are all ticks.  Other hopes to Sam's Town, Haslington, Random Orbit and Scarlett Jo.


Race 4 - Elusive Port rises in weight here but let's be honest, there's not a lot of opposition so it shouldn't be a problem.  Besides he's carried this weight several times to victories in the past.  I was told once that you should never be put off by a horse carrying 2-3kg more than any other horse if it's the best horse in the race.  That's what Elusive Port is.  The price won't be fantastic but if you can $2 then I'd probably jump on that.  Throw in Topping, Racing Heart and Rockdale for the minors.  


Race 5 - How many chances do you give Denwood?  Well I've given him 3 and I think it's time to say enough's enough.  That just means that he's now going to win thanks to the curse of Shep.  The concern in this race is where the speed will come from and for this reason I'm finding this a very difficult race to work out.  I've settled on Black Jag.  Just think it can be up on the speed or even sneak a lead. Could prove hard to run down.  Last campaign it raced in better quality races and while not overly competitive  put in reasonable showings.  In an open race other chances to Peppered Black, Trump, The Inventor, God Bless Us and Denwood.  Go wide in quaddies.


Race 6 - I've settled on Spechenka.  Has to carry 58kg which initially put me off.  However I'm not sure there's a lot in this race so weight might not matter.  I think it's runs in the Cups recently puts it in a slightly higher class than the rest.  Fantastic Blue, King Of The Nile and Secrets Untold  the best of the rest. 


Race 7 - I think we have to respect the form of Belltone when looking at this race.  That's why I'm with Benefaction.  It was stiff when beaten under a length by Belltone last start when held up.  In keeping with the Belltone form lines, other hopes include River Lad, Narcelo and Wave Dancing.  


Race 8 - Gee I really like the look of Koranovsky here.  She's been racing in better quality races than this and is weighted pretty well after the claimer.  Third run in, I think she's cherry ripe for this.  Chances to Gunner Knox, Carry Me Bluey, Blow A Kiss and G'day Old Mate.  


Race 9 - Speed kills in the last.  Some quick buggers going around here.  I'm prepared to back Unflinchingresolve in the last.  Although it beat nothing last start, it did win by 4.5 lengths and it's other Brisbane start was alright too.  I just feel that it has a bit more to offer than the bulk of this field.  Hopes to Bruleur, Alpha Star and Ponzi Scheme.  


Best Bets


Flemington - Race 3 Number 16 Utah Saints
                  Race 6 Number 16 Lights Of Heaven
                  Race 7 Number 12 Bel Sprinter


Warwick Farm - Race 3 Number 1 Oakfield Beauty e/w
                      Race 4 Number 1 Decision Time
                      Race 5 Number 2 Pane In The Glass
                      
Eagle Farm - Race 3 Number 2 Eastline
                  Race 4 Number 1 Elusive Port (depending on price)
                  Race 7 Number 9 Benefaction
                  Race 8 Number 2 Koranovsky e/w


Could be some nice all up opportunities.