Tuesday 30 August 2011

The Wash Up - 27/08/11

Saturday was a tough day with only 5 winners picked from the 22 races run.  Thankfully 4 of these were the best bets for the day.  These being Shamardashing $2.90, Testascana $2.50, Just The Tonic $3.30 and Smart Missile $1.80.  The other winner was Tafeer which paid $4.10.  It was a case of close but no cigar with around 70% of horses that won on the day being mentioned as chances in the Silk.  Unfortunately that's worth bugger all to those that didn't back them!  

The Silk also found 6 placegetters.  These were Plucky Belle, Simply Put and Heart Of Dreams in Melbourne, The Barracks In Brisbane, Altius and Spot The Rock in Sydney.  The best of these was Simply Put which paid a tidy $3.70.  

A few nice trifectas were also found.  These were Sydney race 7 ($158.70 tattsbet) and race 8 ($283.90 tattsbet).  On a personal note I had a percentage of the Melbourne quaddie. 




Friday 26 August 2011

27/08/11 - Caulfield, Rosehill and Doomben Selections

Last week saw the return of a few of the stars of racing and this Saturday is no different.  These horses will be strutting their stuff in the Memsie Stakes, McNeil Stakes and the Run To The Rose feature races.  My selections will be based on a good track favouring on pacers at Caulfield, a slow track improving to dead at Rosehill and a slow track for Doomben.  Punters should keep a watch on changes in the weather for Rosehill and definitely Doomben.  

Caulfield

Race 1 - A number of Moody runners go around in the opening event.  I'm with one of them in Plucky Belle.  Nolen takes the ride which is usually a good indicator of which horse Moody rates the highest.  It's form is solid leading into this with an easy win over 1309m when resuming and it's 4th in it's debut was very good.  The price is a bit short for my liking so keep an eye on that before placing your bet. Minors to be filled by Amaal, Rahveel and Cute Emily.

Race 2 - I think two Moody runners will be fighting this one out.  Miss Gai Flyer and La Praline look the testing material.  Again I'm taking the lead from Moody and backing La Praline with Nolen in the saddle.  She was very impressive when last in work and should get a really good run with 53kg.  Next best Miss Gai Flyer, Happy Angel and Big Spirit.

Race 3 - This is an open race and I'll be going with one here at a bit of value in Simply Put.  It will be fitter for it's first up run and finally gets an inside draw.  I think Baster will be able to get the horse to the lead or in a handy position.  It will also relish a good track.  Next best I'm Discreet, Head North and Midnight Martini.

Race 4 - The McNeil Stakes.  A number of good 3 year olds go around here.  Golden Archer, Do You Think, Satin Shoes, Metonymy and Glissade should fight this out.  I'll be going with Metonymy.  Fillies have a great record in this race and with a substantial weight advantage over the others gets the nod.  She was very good first up and unlucky not to get the win.  Her 2 year old form was also very good.  Will be very handy in the run.  Again has the Moody polish.

Race 5 - Testascana has been very good to the Silk lately and we'll see how good this fellow is here from the car park draw.  I'm prepared to back Nolen getting him across to the front or handy.  If he can dictate proceedings then we should be in the money.  I think the hardest to beat is Vesper who ran 2.3lengths to Whobegotyou last start at wfa conditions. Drops 5kg here and is the big danger!  Other hopes to Lakedro and Hissing Sid.

Race 6 - The Memsie Stakes.  This is a danger race with the majority of the field having their first run back from a spell and at a distance that is a lot shorter than what they'd prefer.  Going on first up form and also because he's one of my favourite horses, I'm with Heart Of Dreams.  Over his career he's proven at the distance and has been able to carry 59kg at wfa.  He can park up on the speed and I think he gets the run of the race.  Oliver on board is a bonus.  Next best includes Shamrocker, King's Rose and Rekindled Interest.


Race 7 - I like Acorns here.  It has a good 1st up record and has a very good overall record with 5 wins from 12 starts.  With the potential leaders coming from the outside, I think this fellow will get a nice sit just behind them and won't have to use up any gas getting there.  My only concern is Craig Newitt in the saddle.  He has butchered many a horse I've been on in the past but I'll give him the benefit here.  Next best includes Grand Duels, Anabaa's Legacy and Testa My Patience.


Race 8 - A number of chances in the final race at Caulfield.  I settled on Time Matters.  It always puts itself into race.  I'm a little concerned that it doesn't seem to win out of turn.  However he's dropping quite a bit of weight from his past runs and I think that could be the difference to finally get him over the line.  Other hopes to Mr Griswold, Rightfully Yours, Pinnacles and Carnero.      


Rosehill


Race 1 - Phenomenal Lass will be all the rage here but I'm prepared to pot her as I have doubts about how she'll handle the going and weight.  I'll be with Hollyweird.  It put in a decent showing 1st up and it's 2nd up record is perfect albeit it's only had the 1 go.  I think with 53kg it will get through whatever surface is present early in the day.  Chances to Phenomenal Lass, Star Leader and Emerald Downs.


Race 2 - Going the way of Just The Tonic here.  It's first start was a beauty where it didn't get things it's own way.  I think it can only go forward from it's first race experience and will be tough to beat.  Will handle the going.  Other hopes to Rekindled Alliance, Schiffer and Houston Benefactor.


Race 3 - A horse I have a high opinion of races here.  Unfortunately the short quote makes it hard to back Altius.  It really should give these a touch up.  If you were looking for something at better odds, I'd suggest Future Solution.  



Race 4 - I've been waiting for Akinoshirabe to reach a suitable distance since it arrived in Australia.  It really stood out last start over 1800m and I think the added 200m will see her right in the finish. Other hopes to Home On A Wing, Dancing Attendance and The Warrior Woman.


Race 5 - The Run To The Rose. From all accounts Smart Missile has returned in excellent style.  He has the impressive record of being the only horse to beat Sepoy and we all know how good it is.  Glen Boss has a massive wrap on this horse and I'm prepared to say he can win this well.  Helmet and Foxwedge will be his greatest opposition.   


Race 6 - This is a tough race to work out as none of the runners likes to take up the running.  Therefore something is going to have to step out of it's normal pattern.  I'll be honest, I have no idea! Therefore it's best not to bet.  However if I wanted to have an interest bet then I'd be on Mourayan.  It's got good 2nd up form and will handle the going.  It may even be able to steal a break on these.  You could give most of these a chance but I'll restrict it to The Verminator, Brave The Way, Storm Kite and They Won't Last.     


Race 7 - A Silk favourite is entered here in Stratford.  He seems to be a horse with potential and I think although up in class again, he'll handle it.  He should be able to unleash a strong finishing burst.  I give chances to Balavan, Gybe and Agister.  


Race 8 - I really like the look of Spot The Rock here.  Scan through it's form and you see it's been competitive with the likes of Rain Affair and Ilovethiscity. It's coming off an impressive trial and I think it will be wound up to blast these off the track.  Filling the minors could be Renewed Vitality, Duke Of Cornwall and Into The Sun.


Doomben


Race 1 - Availability is a nice looking type.  However I'm prepared to go against it as it just held on last start and also is unknown on soft tracks.  That could come back to bite me!  I've gone with God Bless Us.  Bailey thought enough of it to try it in Sydney where it ran well.  I like that's it's down in the weights and has proven itself on rain affect ground.  Next best is Lucky Tycoon.  Hopes to Availability and March To Victory.


Race 2 - I've been impressed by The Barracks in it's last couple of runs.  Being a Commands horse he should be able to get through the wet ground. From the alley he should be able settle well and give this a real shake.  Chances to Sway To Go, Mington and Steel Dragon.


Race 3 - I'm uncertain about this race.  Not sure how some of these will handle a wet track.  I have settled on Tafeer.  I'm not confident but I'm hoping she can cross from her wide gate and run these ragged.  She should get through the ground being a Shamardal.  My concern is the heavy weight may prove costly at the end.  Lines Of Time was impressive last start and trained well this week.  The definite danger.  Carry Me Baby and Erinsea at odds are other hopes. 


Race 4 - Well I was made to look like a fool last time Shamardashing raced.  It bolted in and I'm expecting him to repeat the dose here.  He's up in weight but I think he has a definite class edge over these.  


Race 5 - I'll be on Chart here who's currently at double figure odds.  He has raced at this distance twice for 2 wins and handles a wet track.  He's down in weight from his past starts and I think he can be running on when it counts.  Chances to General Purple, Ausworld and Miss Cutie.  
*Unfortunately Chart has been scratched so I'll promote Miss Cutie. Was quite keen on Chart so I'm not overly confident about Miss Cutie*

Race 6 - I like the look of Beethog here.  She looks to have a class edge and loves a soft track.  She also goes very well first up so if she's wound up enough she will go well after taking a sit.  I give hopes to Belletrist, Multire Music and Carry To Fortune.


Race 7 - Woorim is the class runner here but I'm prepared to say that the 61kg and a wet surface will bring him undone.  Will still run a good race though.  I'll be with his stablemate Funtantes. She has a significant weight advantage over her rivals and goes great first up.  She can handle all going and Byrne should give her a lovely ride.  Other hopes are Rothera and Poor Judge.


Race 8 - If you're down going into this race, don't hold your breath for a positive outcome. Boy is it tough!  I'm looking for a bit of value here so I'll be going with Il Cardinale.  Yes, he's better over longer trips but he can run a super fresh race and can handle the going.  In a race where I found it hard to find a clear winner, I thought he was as good as any.  Other chances to Seventh Heart, Oak Street and My Elixa.  


Best Bets 


Caulfield - Race 5 Number 6 Testascana
             
Rosehill - Race 2 Number 6 Just The Tonic
             Race 5 Number 2 Smart Missile
             Race 8 Number 9 Spot The Rock


Doomben - Race 4 Number 1 Shamardashing
               Race 6 Number 1 Beethog

Tuesday 23 August 2011

The Wash Up - 20/08/11

Firstly, I'd like to offer an apology to anyone that follow The Silk's selections on Saturday.  I knew it would be a tough day but I didn't realise just how hard it would be.  The Silk's selections found 6 winners for the day which is far from ideal.  The winners were as follows: Doomben - What Happenedhenry $4.50 and Belltone $2.40, Moonee Valley - There's Only One $1.90 and Kulgrinda $1.70, Warwick Farm - Manawanui $2.30 and Red Tracer $2.20.  Six placings were also found. 

Unfortunately my first effort in putting up my selections when I tried to update them was deleted so only a small number will be able to support what I'm about to say.  Trying to look for positives the Brisbane and Sydney quaddies were found from the Silk's selections along with 2 trifectas in Brisbane, 3 in Sydney and 1 in Melbourne. 

It was pleasing to see that specials Kulgrinda and Red Tracer saluted.  Kulgrinda is definitely one to follow in the coming months.  It's win was super impressive. 

Hopefully this coming Saturday will prove to be a much better day for The Silk. 

Saturday 20 August 2011

20/08/11 Selections (Post Computer Crash)

Hopefully the handful of people that actually check my selections had done so before 8.30 this morning as my bleeping computer decided to pack it in after I made amendments and wiped everything I had written last night.  Such an awesom way to kick things off! For those that are interested here's my picks.    

20/08/11 DoombenRace 1 - Denwood    
20/08/11 DoombenRace 2 - Transporter     
20/08/11 DoombenRace 3 - Secrets Untold     
20/08/11 DoombenRace 4 - Hussonator     
20/08/11 DoombenRace 5 - What Happenedhenry     
20/08/11 DoombenRace 6 - Dai Kon     
20/08/11 DoombenRace 7 - Belltone     
20/08/11 DoombenRace 8 - Alberton Park     
20/08/11 Moonee ValleyRace 1 - There's Only One     
20/08/11  Moonee ValleyRace 2 - State Grade     
20/08/11 Moonee ValleyRace 3 - Mythical Spirit     
20/08/11 Moonee ValleyRace 4 - Savaging     
20/08/11 Moonee ValleyRace 5 - Hallowell Belle     
20/08/11 Moonee ValleyRace 6 - Niconoise     
20/08/11 Moonee ValleyRace 7 - Kulgrinda     
20/08/11 Moonee ValleyRace 8 - Base     
20/08/11 Warwick FarmRace 1 - Othello     
20/08/11 Warwick FarmRace 2 - Fieldmaster     
20/08/11 Warwick FarmRace 3 - Bereft     
20/08/11 Warwick FarmRace 4 - Neeson     
20/08/11 Warwick FarmRace 5 - Manawanui     
20/08/11 Warwick FarmRace 6 - Triple Elegance     
20/08/11 Warwick FarmRace 7 - Elite Falls     
20/08/11 Warwick FarmRace 8 - Red Tracer 

Best Bets - Brisbane Race 1 Number 2 Denwood
                  Brisbane Race 3 Number 3 Secrets Untold

                 Moonee Valley Race 5 Number 4 Hallowell Belle
                 Moonee Valley Race 7 Number 8 Kulgrinda
               
                 Warwick Farm Race 2 Number 2 Fieldmaster
                 Warwick Farm Race 8 Number 4 Red Tracer

Tuesday 16 August 2011

The Wash Up - 13/08/11

Overall the day could have gone better.  I'd give it a pass mark.  However I'll concentrate on the positives.  The Silk found 10 winners from the 24 races for the day.  Unfortunately the majority of these were favourites.  Still a return is better than a loss and if you managed to group a few of them together in all ups then a nice profit would have been made. The Melbourne meeting was definitely kind to the Silk with 5 winners from the 8 races.  The Silk also found the Melbourne Quadrella.  You could have gone really slim here and had a really nice collect.   

It was good to see that the majority of the Silk best bets saluted.  Here's a list of how the top selections in each race went.

13/08/11CaulfieldRace 1 - Module  Unplcd    
13/08/11CaulfieldRace 2 - Testascana  1st $1.60 $1.20
13/08/11CaulfieldRace 3 - Sepoy  1st $1.20 $1.04
13/08/11CaulfieldRace 4 - Mosheen  3rd   $2.40
13/08/11CaulfieldRace 5 - Bel Sprinter  1st $3.10 $1.40
13/08/11CaulfieldRace 6 - Whobegotyou  1st $2.50 $1.20
13/08/11CaulfieldRace 7 - Rue Maple  Unplcd    
13/08/11CaulfieldRace 8 - Biancon Rose  1st $2.80 $1.50
13/08/11Eagle FarmRace 1 - Sweepstaking  Unplcd    
13/08/11Eagle FarmRace 2 - Miss Cutie  1st $2.30 $1.40
13/08/11Eagle FarmRace 3 - Aquatorial  Unplcd    
13/08/11Eagle FarmRace 4 - Trusted Partner  Unplcd    
13/08/11Eagle FarmRace 5 - Simmering  1st $2.00 $1.30
13/08/11Eagle FarmRace 6 - Sam's Town  3rd   $2.30
13/08/11Eagle FarmRace 7 - Sway to Go  Unplcd    
13/08/11Eagle FarmRace 8 - River Lad  2nd   $1.70
13/08/11RosehillRace 1 - Darci Be Good  1st $2.90 $1.80
13/08/11RosehillRace 2 - Foreteller  1st $1.90 $1.40
13/08/11RosehillRace 3 - Thumbtacks  Unplcd    
13/08/11RosehillRace 4 - Dailika  Unplcd    
13/08/11RosehillRace 5 - Karuta Queen  3rd   
13/08/11RosehillRace 6 - Soul  Unplcd    
13/08/11RosehillRace 7 - Gai's Choice  Unplcd    
13/08/11RosehillRace 8 - Altius  1st $2.10 $1.30

Friday 12 August 2011

13/08/11 - Caulfield, Rosehill and Eagle Farm Selections

After a number of lean weeks, The Silk is looking to change the long list of placings into winners.  If only it was as easy as that!  I have worked around the following track conditions: Caulfield - dead/slow, Rosehill - Slow/dead and Eagle Farm - Good.

Caulfield

Race 1 - Looks a good race for Module.  He has built a strong record and goes for 4 straight. Track conditions if they worsen from dead shouldn't hinder his chances.  The big problem will be the price on offer and punters should be very wary of taking anything too short. 

Race 2 - The result of this race will depend on the speed set.  If Testascana and Carnero can get a soft lead then I think they will fight it out.  However if they cut each other up then the likes of Lakedro and Diggersanddealers will be able to run over the top of them.  Having said that, I think Testascana will again salute for Silk followers. Sure the barrier isn't ideal but I think this fellow is classy enough to overcome it. 

Race 3 - This race sees the return of last season's Golden Slipper winner Sepoy.  By rights he should be way too strong for these but the fact he is resuming and the untouchable price makes this a race to watch and learn.  That's unless you are of the "better than bank interest" brigade, then good luck to you!

Race 4 - This will be a highly competitive 3yo fillies race.  Mosheen has only had the 2 race starts and the second of these was a 2nd place finish to Sepoy.  You could rightly assume that it's potential is untapped.  This is the way I'll be going.  Forever The Chill is a horse that the Silk mentioned last week and it didn't disappoint, running a nice 2nd in it's first start.  It goes in. Satin Shoes is a classy animal and wouldn't surprise.  Others to consider for multiples are City of Song, Glissade and Metonymy.   

Race 5 - Will we see the continued rise of Bel Sprinter here?  I believe so.  He should be handy in the run, possibly even leading and with 53kg will be hard to hold out.  You can never discount Stanzout in a race like this. A definite must for multiples.  Other hopes to fill the placing include Chasm, Rightfully Yours, Bullbars and Swiss Rose. 

Race 6 - You know Spring is approaching when stars like Whobegotyou start returning to the track.  Whobe is a perennial runner up when having his first run back from a spell.  Having said that, he did run well behind More Joyous last time he resumed!  This looks a race in two with the undefeated Moody mare Lights of Heaven.  However she's only giving Whobe 3kg and I don't think that will be enough.  She may show she is a Spring star but am prepared to risk that and I'll be with Whobegotyou. 

Race 7 - This race sees the return of a number of distance horses coming up against a couple horses in great sprinting form. I'll be going with the horses who have been running well lately and are rock hard fit and that's Mid Summer Music and Rue Maple.  Mid Summer Music has had the wood on Rue Maple recently but not by much.  Today sees a 1.5kg weight swing to Ruey and also sees Rue Maple get the prized 1 gate.  I think that makes Rue Maple a great e/w bet.  As I'm finding it hard to split the 2, I'll box the pair up in an exacta. Horses for the multiples include Southern Speed, Pinker Pinker, Do Ra Mi, Simply Put and Parables.   


Race 8 - Interesting race to finish the day. Gossip Girl should take the lead from her inside draw.  It could be hard to catch.  Minnie Mah has been racing well and will be a big show from the 3.  However I'm going the way of Biancon Rose as I did last week.  It was caught wide and still only lost by a length.  It drops 4kg and has the more experienced Craig Williams in the saddle.  I think he'll give it the right run and it will be winning.  Platinum Scissors and Little Tycoon are shows for the minors. 


Rosehill  


Race 1 - We kick off at Rosehill with a field of 6. I won't be getting too excited here. If forced to have a bet here I would support Darci Be Good. Looked a promising type in it's 1st campaign and handles all going.  


Race 2 - Again a small field goes around and 3 of the runners are trained by Chris Waller.  I'll be supporting 1 of his in top weight Foreteller.  He has to lump 59kg but his past 2 runs have been full of merit.  If Waller is serious about running this guy in the Cox Plate then he should be able to put this field away.


Race 3 - This is another race I'm not getting too excited about.  I've gone with Thumbtacks.  He finished off his last start at 1900m well to run 2nd to Brayroan.  Think that's good enough form to be winning this.  Next best is Adroitly.


Race 4 - Finding it hard to split Dailika and Sweetest Melody. Given a better ride last start, she should have won.  Sweetest Melody has the Nash/Gai combo going for it as well as a perfect 2nd up record.  I think Dailika is better suited at the weights and at $9 currently is much better value. For that reason I'll go with Dailika. I give chances to Jali and Delzera.  


Race 5 - Going with Karuta Queen here. In a small field I think she can lead out and go on with it.  Foxwedge is the obvious danger.


Race 6 - I have a high opinion of Soul.  He's raced some very good horses and beat them or been very competitive.  He hasn't raced for a long time which is a concern.  Horses to put in your multiples include Atomic Force, Pressday, Master of Design and See The World.


Race 7 - Not a race I'm overly keen on here. I've settled on Gai's Choice as it's showing value at $13 currently.  I'll have a sneaky e/w bet on her. I'm not sure where she'll end up from the barrier but in her favour is some recent good trial form, good 1st up record and handles any going.  For the multiples I'd include Lioncub, Raspberries, Al's Gold and Mr Cool Cat.


Race 8 - This looks a race well suited to Altius.  This well bred fellow should be  heading to better races later on so he should put these horses away. He's got hardly any weight and Corey Brown on top.  His last start win was eye catching. He goes on top!  Other hopes include Galizani, Future Solution and Break Card.


Eagle Farm


Race 1 - Quite keen on the chances of Sweepstaking here. Her 3rd to Aladah last start was full of merit given how the race was run.  Today she meets Aladah 5kg better off which I believe will more than cover the 2.2 lengths she was done by last start.  Aladah is an obvious danger even though I don't think it will get everything it's own way in front.  Other hopes to Chaste and Elimbari.


Race 2 - An omen bet goes around here in Bitasilk.  Unfortunately it really doesn't have much of a chance and this Silk won't be touching it.  Back to the race.  I don't think it's overly strong and it looks fairly well set up for Miss Cutie.  Although only had the 1 race win, I think she has a bit too much for the bulk of these.  


Race 3 - Interesting race this one with a number legitimate chances.  Aquatorial, Easy Running, Availability, Excapishe, March To Victory and Townie all come into calculations.  Think there may be a bit of a battle for the lead here which has lead me to Aquatorial who will be running on.  


Race 4 - Going to take a chance on Trusted Partner. He's a 1000m specialist and his stats at the distance are undeniable.  However I have a concern that if he's niggled at then maybe there might not be enough left in the tank in the closing stages. Counteracting this is that Larry Cassidy is onboard and I'm sure he'll give the horse every chance.  Hopes given to Monashee Dancer, Carry The Clubs, Haizum, Carry To Fortune and Baqaba at big odds. 


Race 5 - It's very hard to go past Simmering here. His past 2 starts have been tops.  The big danger here is Eleven Oysters. Her last start finish for 2nd was an eye catcher and with 49kg after the claim will be very hard to hold out. I'll be having a sneaky e/w bet on her as well.  Next best King of the Nile, Diago, World By Night and Sunshine Angel.  


Race 6 - Not overly confident about this race but I'm going to go with Sam's Town based on his close 2nd behind Danagaze two starts back.  In that race he had a wide barrier and was able to come with a strong finish.  I'm thinking or hoping that will be the case here. I'm not convinced that Shamardashing is the business but I will include it in multiples along with Xanthos, Raeburn and Smuggler's Inn.  


Race 7 - Going to stick with Sway To Go.  He was run down late last week and I think with the extra fitness gained from that run, he will take a tonne of beating.  Mondean always gives it's backers a good sight but I think he may be  found wanting at the end.  Other hopes to Seventh Heart, Steel Dragon and Handsupfordetroit.


Race 8 - It was hard to miss the run of River Lad last start and that's the way I'm going here.  He's dropping to 52kg with the claim and gets the inside gate this time around.  I think that could be just the tonic to tip the scales in his favour.  Belltone is the obvious danger.  I was offput by the alley and hopefully discounting that doesn't come back to bite me.  Whether Freton can step up to Saturday class is unknown but I'll be having it in my multiples along with Side To Side and Mr Nicholas who put in a bold trial showing.          


Best Bets


Caulfield - Race 5 Number 15 Bel Sprinter
               Race 8 Number 6 Biancon Rose


Rosehill - Race 5 Number 6 Karuta Queen
              Race 8 Number 10 Altius


Eagle Farm - Race 2 Number 3 Miss Cutie
                   Race 7 Number 3 Sway To Go
                  Race 8 Number 5 River Lad


Toowoomba - Race 6 Number 2 Dodging Eddie

Tuesday 9 August 2011

The Wash Up - 06/08/11

Silk supporters would have been laughing if they were strictly place gamblers with 17 of the 24 top selections running in the first three.  Unfortunately the majority of us aren't and only 6 saluted the judge.  Having said that if you had backed each runner on an each way basis then a small profit would have been made.

Highlights for the day included Solzhenitsyn and Tomboy in Brisbane, Never Doubt Me, Bereft and Rain Affair in Sydney and There's Only One in Melbourne. Perturbo was the biggest disappointment of the day after the Silk claimed he was one of the best bets. 

The following is the results of the Silk's top selections:
  
06/08/11DoombenRace 1 - Denwood  3rd   $2.10
06/08/11DoombenRace 2 - Warrior Within  2nd   $2.60
06/08/11DoombenRace 3 - Whateverwhenever  Unplcd    
06/08/11DoombenRace 4 - Solzhenitsyn  1st $3.40 $1.70
06/08/11DoombenRace 5 - Peelings  2nd   $1.90
06/08/11DoombenRace 6 - Tomboy  1st $2.40 $1.60
06/08/11DoombenRace 7 - Frozone  3rd   $1.60
06/08/11DoombenRace 8 - Age of Heroes  3rd   $1.90
06/08/11FlemingtonRace 1 - Dance With Her  2nd   $1.70
06/08/11FlemingtonRace 2 - Motorised  Unplcd    
06/08/11FlemingtonRace 3 - There's Only One  1st $2.80 $1.90
06/08/11FlemingtonRace 4 - Noble Park  3rd   $1.70
06/08/11FlemingtonRace 5 - Sarge in Charge  3rd   $1.60
06/08/11FlemingtonRace 6 - Perturbo  Unplcd    
06/08/11FlemingtonRace 7 - Lethal Arrow  2nd   $1.90
06/08/11FlemingtonRace 8 - Little Tycoon  2nd   $1.90
06/08/11RandwickRace 1 - Rain Melody  Unplcd    
06/08/11RandwickRace 2 - Never Doubt Me  1st $4.50 $1.60
06/08/11RandwickRace 3 - Bereft  1st $4.50 $1.60
06/08/11RandwickRace 4 - Essence of Success  3rd   $1.60
06/08/11RandwickRace 5 - Chivvy  Unplcd    
06/08/11RandwickRace 6 - Rain Affair  1st $2.20 $1.30
06/08/11RandwickRace 7 - Whisperossa  Unplcd    
06/08/11RandwickRace 8 - Daintree Road  Unplcd    
 


Friday 5 August 2011

06/08/11 - Flemington, Randwick and Doomben Selections

Flemington


Race 1 - Not a great start to the day with only 5 runners and the majority of jockeys being international apprentices.  I won't be betting in this race but I see Dance With Her and Sidecar as the winning chances.

Race 2 - I have a wrap for Pied A Terre who won for The Silk recently.  Following that form line I will be backing Motorised.  Motorised finished an unlucky 0.8 lengths from Pied A Terre last start and I think can go one better here.  The biggest danger is Club Command who won by 4.3 lengths on debut at Seymour and comes from the Moody yard.  Others hopes are That's The One and Tunes.

On Top - Motorised

Race 3 - Another race with the international apprentices going around.  I've gone for There's Only One.  No idea what sort of a jockey Vincent Ho is but he claims 1.5kg which brings There's Only One into 52kg.  The horse has been flying in it's past few starts and is trained by Moody.  The obvious danger is Maraaseem.  The horse is in form and has the very good jockey McDonald on it but I think the weight may get her in the final stages.  

On Top - There's Only One

Race 4 - I like one down in the weights here. I'll be going the way of Noble Park.  This horse from the Moroney yard has only had the 4 starts but has won 3 of those and is first up here.  It beat Turnitup here in it's last appearance at the track and I think has a lot more upside than most of these.  Mr Griswold is the next best.  However it has a poor barrier (14) and I think that may prove costly.  Other hopes are Sanrio who is a 1400m specialist and wouldn't surprise if it won and Cabeza.

On Top - Noble Park

Race 5 - Tough race this one.  I've gone with Sarge In Charge.  Not overly happy with that because he's been hard to follow in the past with his mixed results.  However I think he's in pretty good form at the moment and should give it a shake.  Next best is Happy Angel who will carry next to no weight with the claimer and good straight form.  Other hopes given to Chosen to Fly and Marmaa.

On Top - Sarge In Charge

Race 6 - One of the Silk's favourites goes around here in Perturbo.  He's in terrific form and loves this track and distance.  He's on top.  Chances to Miss Gai Flyer, Temple of Boom and Nicholas Court.

Best Bet - Perturbo

Race 7 - Winning form is good form and that's the reason for me going for Lethal Arrow here.  I think it will be able to get a soft lead and race away with it which it has in it's past few starts. The Moody runners should fight this out and next best is White Universe.  White Universe is to be ridden by Luke Nolen which often is an indicator for Moody runners.  Other hopes to They Won't Last and Prince of Capers.

On Top - Lethal Arrow

Race 8 - I'm not overly keen on this race.  It seems a race of many chances.  If pushed to select just 1, I'd go with Little Tycoon.  In it's 1st up run it ran very well for a 2nd.  It will get back from the barrier but the speed should be ok for it to come home strong.  Other hopes include Winged Charm, Cool Diva and River Bypass.

On Top - Little Tycoon

Randwick

Race 1 - Girls Go Racing and Phenomenal Lass will be all the rage here and rightly so.  However I'm going with Rain Melody who will offer better value.  It has the advantage of being trained by Waller and ridden by Oliver.  It has also beaten Girls Go Racing previously and is sound over the distance.

On Top - Rain Melody

Race 2 - Not going to get too involved here.  Very little form to draw from and that's why I've gone with the horse with the most experience, Never Doubt Me.  Last start it carried 59kg and won by 4 lengths at Grafton.  It's overall form is good.  Alcancia the main danger.

On Top - Never Doubt Me

Race 3 - Gone with Bereft here.  The horse has only been out of the placings once in it's career so you know it's going to give you a sight.  Last start it beat Namsarai in a midweeker who then came out on Wednesday to win.  Next best is Beltane, Mumslad and one I definitely wouldn't be leaving out of exotics is Youthful King.

On Top - Bereft

Race 4 - Will be saddling up with the gun combination of Waterhouse and Rawiller here with Essence of Success.  The horse has been winning easier races well and gets it's chance in Saturday class.  Distance is a query but it should get an easy lead and be able to kick away.  Next best is Timetable followed by Our Cannavaro and Home On A Wing.

On Top - Essence of Success

Race 5 - Chivvy looks a very horse indeed.  Won well on debut and then came home with a bottler of a run when coming from the widest gate.  Think it's got the most upside here.  The definite danger is Al's Magic Miss.  Has run in some decent quality races and hasn't been far off.  Other hopes to Road To Summer, Aeronautical and Bello.

On Top - Chivvy

Race 6 - The Missile Stakes - Today we will find out if Rain Affair is the real deal.  The Silk is a massive fan of this horse.  He's put together an imposing record but today faces his stiffest test.  I think he can aim up and that's the way I'll be going.  He will face strong opposition from Pinwheel who never runs a bad race, Squamosa and Triple Elegance.  Be careful not to take too short a price if going with Rain Affair.

On Top - Rain Affair.

Race 7 - There's a few here that have been unkind to the Silk in recent showings.  With the fear of getting burnt one more time, I'm going with Whisperossa.  I'm prepared to forgive the hiding he copped last start and C.Brown should give him a decent run.  Hidden Gem is in super form and definitely can't be discounted.  Othella next best and could slip away with a handy lead.  Dunrossil a place chance.

On Top - Whisperossa

Race 8 - I won't be getting too involved in the Get Out.  The form in this race is to be honest, poor.  Going to go with Daintree Road.  The Pumper should give his mount a decent chance.  2 from 3 at the distance and it gets a better surface than last start. I'm not going to bother listing the main dangers because I might as well list the the field.  

On Top - Daintree Road

Doomben

Race 1 - The Silk was on Denwood last start and sees no reason to get off just yet.  Although still a maiden, Denwood finished off the race nicely behind Biggles who you will know as the horse who had the biggest kahunas ever seen.  The added distance in my mind can only suit.  The obvious danger is Red Royal who did well to finish the race as close as he did from the wide draw in the Biggles race.  With the nice alley he will run well.  Peppered Black and The Inventor to fight for the minors.

On Top - Denwood

Race 2 - The Silk was kicking cans and headbutting walls the other week when Work The Room saluted.  I had kept the faith with the horse for so long and then finally decided enough was enough.  Then it won and won well.  One win isn't enough to get me to jump at the short odds on offer.  It's a small field so getting involved probably should be avoided.  I'd say the handicapper has got it right and the top 3 will get the spoils.

Best Bet - Have a feed or in the Silk's case, a siesta.

Race 3 - Punters should save their money from the previous race and throw the extra on Whateverwhenever in this race.  It looks a standout bet and especially so if it's closest rival Maroon Bells fudges the start as it has in it's past 5.  

Best Bet - Whateverwhenever

Race 4 - Another one of the Silk's favourites goes around here in Solzhenitsyn.  However he's up in weight and that's a concern as is the tricky gate.  Offsetting this is the fact that Jimmy Byrne is aboard.  I like this lad and I'm prepared to stick with him. However he is going to face a tough task of it from Lapel and Eastline.  With clear running Lapel could win this without question.  Eastline never runs a bad race as is the case with General Purple. However I would much prefer to see the General on a soft track. Unsupervised is a knockout chance following his last start.

On Top - Solzhenitsyn (try saying that to the bookie after your 8th beer!)

Race 5 - Somebody should tell these steeds that speed kills!  Peelings stung the Silk last start but he showed enough to warrant staying solid.  With the claim for Looker, Peelings will feel like he's got a feather on his back and should be running over the top of these.  He's the one to beat.  Other hopes include Darshan Joh who saluted for the Silk during the Grafton carnival, Tafeer who returned well last start and God's Window who has to get past a rubbish gate.

On Top - Peelings

Race 6 - There seems to be a common theme appearing here.  Horse that have recently bitten the Silk.  Here we have Tomboy running.  Last start she was given no chance and I'm prepared to give her another go.  She's certainly earned that right after some impressive displays in the midweeks and with a senior jockey on in Byrne, she should be in this up to her eyeballs.  Isn't it great to see a Murphy's Blu Boy going around? I digress.  Toughest to beat will be Rusty Hunter, Pannigen who's always thereabouts and Blow A Kiss.       

On Top - Tomboy

Race 7 - Twitter followers of the Silk will have fond memories of one of the better picks in this race, Frozone.  The Fro saluted for us 3 starts back at tasty odds.  Enough of the bragging and back to this race.  I'll be sticking with Frozone in this race.  I think he's in good enough nick to win a race like this despite carting 58kg.  He'll face a ding dong battle from Secrets Untold who kept coming last start when wide.  Again the gate is a concern today for him.  Lake George hasn't shown a great deal lately but I give him a sneaky chance if there's a little bit of rain about.  I'd put Elusive Port in as I have a lot of time for it but I really can't see it running out a strong 1600m.  

On Top - Frozone

Race 8 - I really like the chances of Age Of Heroes here.  He is undefeated 2nd up, loves the distance, down in weight and has the Colless/Bailey team in his favour.  The only concern is the outside draw.  However I think he can overcome this so he goes on top.  Next in line and in no particular order are Frosty, The Sixties, Ollie Vollie and we have to include Falco Star who you never know what you'll get from.  

On Top - Age Of Heroes

So there's the first edition of The Silk.  Hopefully there's a few winners amongst the selections.  Would have liked to have given some better explanations but I think the gist of it is there and let's be honest, most of you just want to know who's going to win!    

My best bets for Saturday are:

Flemington - Race 6 Number 5 Perturbo
                      
Randwick - Race 4 Number 2 Essence of Success
                     Race 5 Number 8 Chivvy
                    Race 6 Number 6 Rain Affair

Doomben - Race 3 Number 4 Whateverwhenever
                     Race 4 Number 2 Solzhenitsyn
                    Race 8 Number 4 Age Of Heroes

Remember to always bet responsibly.